Week 11 was filled with exciting matchups across the NFL, and most of the marquee games lived up to the expected drama. Four of the league’s top five quarterbacks provided incredible theater in the two late-Sunday games: Chiefs-Bills and Bengals-Chargers. Geno Smith helped Seattle upset San Francisco, and Pittsburgh claimed first place in the AFC North in classic Pittsburgh vs. Baltimore fashion.
After Week 11’s high-profile games, Week 12 is focused on playoff leverage in the NFC. The three biggest games on Sunday all carry massive playoff implications for both the NFC West and the NFC playoff picture as a whole.
- 49ers-Packers
- Cardinals-Seahawks
- Eagles-Rams
The gap between first and last place in the NFC West is just one game. The Packers are comfortably in the wild card for now, but they’ll feel a lot less safe if they lose on Sunday at home to the desperate 49ers. The NFC leverage chart shows the importance of those three games.
With six teams (the Falcons, Jets, Bills, Saints, Bengals, and Jaguars) enjoying a pre-Thanksgiving-week bye, good luck to everyone trying to survive the inevitable fantasy football carnage.
Here are my thoughts on all 13 Week 12 games, starting with Thursday Night Football. I’ve included bets I’ve already made at the bottom, and all lines posted are via FanDuel as of Wednesday morning, unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night Football
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns (+3.5)
It wouldn’t be a proper November night game in Cleveland without heavy winds, rain, and even snow showers in the forecast. The total for this game has been bet down from 39 to 35.5 due to expected 20-30 mph winds in Cleveland. With the stadium situated right off Lake Erie, the wind potential is further amplified. It will be hard for the Steelers to operate their low-success-rate offense that relies on downfield passes to George Pickens given the weather conditions. Even though Pittsburgh won on Sunday thanks to the right leg of Chris Boswell and the Steelers’ opportunistic defense, Russell Wilson and the Steelers had the fifth-lowest success rate of all 28 teams who played in Week 11. Only the Jaguars, Titans, Cowboys, and Jets were lower, and those four teams lost by a combined 81 points last week.
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For all of the struggles Cleveland has had in this season from hell, it’s gotten up and played its best football in both of its divisional matchups. The Browns lost to Cincinnati by a touchdown at home but finished the game with more yards than the Bengals. Cleveland then upset Baltimore at home in Jameis Winston’s first start. The Browns defense struggled indoors to stop the Saints run game and Taysom Hill last week, but Cleveland is in a prime spot at home in a division that plays more consistently competitive games than any other.
Points will be at a premium, and the Browns won’t be bullied at the line of scrimmage. I’m betting on Cleveland at +3.5 or better.
Verdict: Bet Browns +3.5.
Sunday Matchups
Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Chicago simplified its offense considerably in the heartbreaking loss to Green Bay in Week 11. The Bears fired Shane Waldron before the game, and the offensive game plan saw immediate changes. Caleb Williams had a 1.92-second time to throw in the first half, the quickest by any quarterback in a game this season. This low-aDOT-focused and quick-release offense helps keep Williams away from his bad habits of holding the ball too long, taking sacks, and misfiring on throws down the field.
The Bears also found success in the running game against Green Bay, posting their second-most efficient rushing game of the season by expected points added per rush. Chicago combined the run game with excellent efficiency on third down and still managed to score just 19 points. Minnesota’s front is the best in the league at defending the run, so I wish the Bears luck on third downs against Brian Flores and the Vikings. I don’t really want to bet on Sam Darnold as a road favorite in the division, but the Titans struggled to get to 13 against the Vikings defense last week, and Chicago is still dealing with a bunch of offensive line injuries.
Verdict: Bet Bears team total under 17.5 points (-110).
Detroit Lions at Indianapolis Colts (+7.5)
I had high hopes for the Colts running game with Anthony Richardson back last week, but, unfortunately, it didn’t pan out against the Jets. With three offensive starters missing, the Colts struggled on the ground, aside from a few key plays from Richardson. They’ve had three consecutive weeks with a rush success rate below 32 percent. Surprisingly, it was Richardson’s passing game that won the contest for the Colts. He had his best performance yet in the NFL, achieving his highest full-game completion percentage in the comeback.
It’s challenging to fully assess the Lions’ dominant win over the Jaguars, considering the circumstances surrounding Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence is out due to an injury, and Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson seems to be living on borrowed time. There was basically no resistance from that defense against either the run or pass. However, Detroit’s efficient run game and top-tier offensive line provide the team with a strong foundation. The Lions managed to score touchdowns on their first seven possessions on Sunday.
Leaguewide, based on the combined success rate of all plays on offense and defense, Detroit ranks first, while Indianapolis ranks 29th, giving the Lions a considerable down-to-down advantage. The key question is whether the Colts can generate enough explosive plays to compete in this game.
Detroit’s market value has peaked, with this line at over a touchdown, making the Colts the more favorable choice in this matchup.
Verdict: Lean Colts +7.5.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at New York Giants (+5.5)
As an Italian who loves chicken cutlets and has a lot of family from North Jersey, I love Tommy DeVito’s story. I’m already looking forward to gathering with my family (many Giants fans) to watch DeVito play on Thanksgiving. But while DeVito’s story was fun last year, there seems to be some revisionist history regarding his time with the team. The last two games of the DeVito run before he was benched at halftime on Christmas included a 24-6 loss in New Orleans and a 20-3 deficit in Philadelphia.
Out of the 53 quarterbacks who played at least 80 snaps in the NFL last season, only Bailey Zappe and Tim Boyle had a lower success rate than DeVito. Even though he had some good moments in the victories against the Packers and Commanders, it is clear that DeVito is a considerable downgrade from Daniel Jones, regardless of how poorly Jones may have been playing for the Giants.
Now DeVito will face a lot of pressure from Todd Bowles and the Buccaneers. With Mike Evans likely back for the Bucs, I’m inclined to bet against DeVito if the spread is less than a touchdown.
Verdict: Bet Buccaneers -5.5 (-105).
New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins (-7)
Since Tua Tagovailoa returned from his concussion in Week 8, the Dolphins rank first in the NFL in EPA per drive. Despite Jaylen Waddle’s surprisingly quiet year, the Dolphins offense continues to move the ball with ease. Tagovailoa has the third-highest success rate of all quarterbacks in the NFL, behind only Jared Goff and Lamar Jackson.
The Dolphins are only 2-2 in that stretch, with losses to Arizona and Buffalo, because their defense is 25th in the same EPA-per-drive stat across the same time frame. There are far more questions about that group, and mobile quarterbacks have also had a ton of success against them.
Since Drake Maye took over as quarterback for New England, Patriots games are 4-2 to the over, with New England scoring above its point expectation four times. The increased explosiveness and higher chance of interceptions from Maye contribute to the higher-scoring environment. The market has taken notice of this, and the total has been bet up to 45.5. I’d lean over again.
Verdict: Lean over 45.5 (-115).
Dallas Cowboys at Washington Commanders (-10.5)
The Commanders have a maximum rest advantage in this spot; they’re playing at home after a Thursday game and will be facing the Cowboys, who played on Monday night. The Cowboys have confirmed that Cooper Rush will remain their quarterback, but he has been ineffective so far. The Cowboys backup has been unable to re-create the success he had in 2022 when Dak Prescott was out with a thumb injury.
In Dallas’s loss to the Eagles, Rush was 13-for-23 for 45 yards, and then he had four turnover-worthy plays and 345 total passing yards on Monday night against Houston. Washington’s offense has struggled in the last month, so I believe the spread is a bit inflated. However, Rush’s high potential for turnovers in a trailing game state is concerning.
Verdict: Pass.
Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (+10.5)
Don’t look now, but the Panthers have won two consecutive professional football games. Bryce Young threw for 297 yards … in both games combined. The Panthers are catching the Chiefs in a dream spot. Not only are the Panthers coming off a bye, but the Chiefs have a Black Friday game looming against Las Vegas. The Chiefs offense struggled to create big plays on Sunday in Buffalo, continuing a worrisome trend. Even though Patrick Mahomes has led the offense effectively, the Chiefs have struggled to create a significant lead due to their lack of big-play ability.
Kansas City ranks fourth in combined success rate on offense and defense. The defense has shown significant improvement against the run. However, the Chiefs rank 29th in explosive play rate, falling below Carolina, Tennessee, New England, and Cleveland.
This sets up a favorable second-half under spot for the Chiefs. Once Kansas City takes the lead, it is likely to focus on running the ball and escaping with a win. A one-dimensional Panthers offense forced to pass against Steve Spagnuolo’s defense could result in numerous blitzes and sacks on Young.
I’ll be targeting Chiefs sack props once the market opens, but for now, I will be taking the under in the second half. This trend has been successful six out of 10 times this season.
Verdict: Bet second-half under 20.5 (-110).
Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans (-8.5)
The Titans have covered only one of their 10 games this season, one of the five worst records against the spread in NFL history at this point in the season. A series of errors has led to this point. Will Levis has stopped producing viral moments through his comical turnovers, but the Titans have replaced those with special teams blunders. Tennessee ranks 32nd in special teams DVOA, a key contributor to its inability to cover the spread this year. The Titans are also the second-most penalized team in the NFL.
Levis is still taking too many sacks—he’s been sacked 27 times in seven starts—and this is a major reason why I’ve bet on many of the Titans games to go under their team or game total this season. The sacks constantly stall drives, and Houston is likely to bring a lot of pressure in this game, forcing Levis into unfavorable situations. The Titans had a 98-yard touchdown last week, but it only highlights their dismal 32.7 percent success rate, the worst of any team in Week 11.
The Texans offense showed improvements after the return of Nico Collins on Monday, but it remains an inefficient and heavily penalized group (the Texans rank 27th in penalties per game) with shaky offensive line play.
Verdict: Bet under 41.5 (-115).
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders (+5.5)
You have to ask if we’ve hit the sell point on the Broncos after they’ve finished their four-game demolition of the NFC South with a crushing 38-6 victory over Atlanta. Bo Nix is getting Rookie of the Year buzz, and the Broncos are the favorite to get the AFC’s no. 7 seed. It’s mostly because Denver is 4-0 against the NFC South; the Broncos are 2-5 against everyone else. The offense looked great in some of their games against that division, but pretty mediocre otherwise. They’ve scored more than 16 points in two of their non-NFC South games, including a 34-18 win against the Raiders in their first meeting.
There are a ton of road favorites in Week 12, and road favorites have performed well since October began because the market took some time to catch up to just how bad the league’s bottom eight teams are this year. The Raiders don’t have any obvious advantages in this matchup, but the Broncos were bet up from -4 to -5.5, and this is a classic contrarian spot to pump the brakes on the Nix hype train.
For the season, Denver still is just 23rd in offensive EPA per drive, not good enough to be laying this much on the road in the division.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +5.5 (-115).
San Francisco 49ers at Green Bay Packers (-2.5)
San Francisco isn’t quite at the Alamo yet, but the Niners are getting close to their last stand after another last-minute loss at home against Seattle. The 49ers are 1-3 in the division, 5-5 overall, and teetering now that Nick Bosa is injured once again. Their playoff hopes will plummet with a loss to the Packers on Sunday.
The key battle here is Green Bay’s offensive explosiveness vs. San Francisco’s ability to limit big plays. The Packers are a top-five offense by explosive play rate, yet only the Chiefs and Broncos are allowing a lower percentage of big plays than the 49ers.
Green Bay is heavily reliant on winning high-leverage plays. The Niners are 12th in combined offensive and defensive success rate, while Green Bay is 27th. That stat is underrating Green Bay because of the Packers’ ability to generate big plays on both sides of the ball, but it’s also a flashing red indicator of how fragile the whole system is.
Both of these offenses have had real issues in the red zone. But I trust Kyle Shanahan and the 49ers way more to sort out those issues because their underlying success rate is much higher than Green Bay’s.
Verdict: Bet 49ers +2.5 (-110).
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-1.5)
I don’t want to discount the performance of the Cardinals defense in consecutive weeks against the Bears and Jets. Arizona held those two teams to a combined 15 points and finally added some dominant victories to its resumé that had been full of close games. They’re a well-coached group.
However, those two wins didn’t age quite as well while Arizona was on its bye week, enjoying its first-place spot in the NFC West. The Bears and Jets are near the top of the NFL dysfunction rankings at the moment.
Seattle appeared to be in flux after cutting Tyrel Dodson during its bye week and losing starting center Connor Williams to a surprise midseason retirement. Instead, Mike Macdonald’s squad turned in their biggest win of the season in a 20-17 upset against San Francisco. Was this defensive performance a blip? Or the start of a post-bye run for the Seattle defense now that the unit is getting healthier?
I want to bet on Seattle here, but Arizona had the all-important extra week of prep ahead of this game and the Cardinals should have advantages in running the ball against this Seattle front.
The key stat to note: Arizona is the least penalized team in the NFL, and the Seahawks have committed the third most in the league. In a close game, these tiny margins are amplified.
Verdict: Lean Seahawks ML (-110).
Sunday Night Football
Philadelphia Eagles at Los Angeles Rams (+2.5)
If you were unsure about the legitimacy of the Eagles defensive improvements due to the weak schedule they faced, the performance against the Commanders in Week 10 should confirm how good they’ve been. There have been remarkable improvements since the bye week. The defensive line struggled to both stop the run and generate a pass rush in the opening month of the season, but now they’ve morphed into a true top-five unit. The emergence of rookie corners Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean has helped solidify the secondary, and defensive tackle Jalen Carter had one of his best games as a pro against Washington in Week 10.
Eagles defensive EPA per drive allowed
Before Week 5: -0.43 (26th)
Since Week 6: +1.17 (1st)
Combine the Eagles’ defensive improvements with their high-floor offense centered around running the football, and I think this total is too high above 48.5.
The case for the offense is a simple one: both the Eagles and Rams are top seven in the NFL in explosive rate since Week 6. Since A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, and Cooper Kupp have returned from injury, these two offenses have been very explosive. The counterpoint: Neither of these offenses are top 10 in the league in red zone touchdown percentage. Philadelphia is slightly better than league average, while the Rams sit 25th.
Both teams will try to run the ball. I trust the Eagles to be more successful, and lean towards the Eagles, but prefer the under at 48.5.
Verdict: Bet under 48.5 (-105).
Monday Night Football
Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers (+3)
Not only is this a matchup between two of the league’s five best quarterbacks, but it’s another edition of the HarBowl—a coaching matchup between brothers Jim and John Harbaugh. The Chargers defense is still first in the NFL in points allowed per game, but the Bengals showed last week that the gaudy stats are a bit of a product of the Chargers’ weak schedule thus far.
Lamar Jackson had his worst game of the season last week, holding the ball too long and struggling to keep the Baltimore offense in rhythm. I’m personally chalking that up to Pittsburgh’s familiarity with him and past success in that AFC North rivalry. The Chargers will have a difficult time keeping up with the speed of the Ravens offense on a much more friendly turf and overall conditions.
The Ravens are no. 1 in the NFL in both red zone touchdown percentage and offensive explosive play rate. That’s a combination that should immediately scare anyone away from betting the under, regardless of how good the Chargers defensive stats have been.
Since the Chargers had their early Week 5 bye, they’ve opened up the offense in a huge way. They’ve had higher pass rates, more downfield passing, more Justin Herbert running and the result has been a top-five explosive offense since their bye.
All signs point to a shootout in this one.
Verdict: Lean over 49.5 points (-115).
Bets from this article made for Week 12:
Browns +3.5 vs. Steelers (-108)
Buccaneers -5.5 vs. Giants (-105)
49ers +2.5 vs. Packers (-110)
Raiders +5.5 vs. Broncos (-115)
Titans-Texans under 41.5 (-115)
Bears team total under 17.5 vs. Vikings (-110)
Eagles-Rams under 48.5 (-105)
Chiefs-Panthers second half under 20.5 (-110)
