Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. This week, Saquon Barkley played like the MVP for the Eagles, while two other NFC East teams delivered one of the most chaotic finishes we’ve seen this season. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Winner: Saquon Barkley’s MVP campaign
- Lamar Jackson
- Josh Allen
- Saquon Barkley
That would be my MVP ballot through 12 weeks of this season. I’m well aware of the arguments against a running back winning the award—and why it hasn’t happened since Adrian Peterson in the 2012 season. A running back’s production is driven mostly by the quality of his offensive line’s blocking and coach’s play-calling. NFL games are won through the air; the more efficient team in the passing game often wins the game. Quarterback play is too valuable for the award to go to a player at another position. While this is all undoubtedly true about the league generally, there are always outliers.
Barkley has been an outlier this season in many respects. After racking up 255 rushing yards against the Rams in Philadelphia’s 37-20 win on Sunday night, the Eagles back now leads the NFL in rushing by over 200 yards heading into Monday Night Football. He’s ripped off a league-leading five runs of 50 yards or more—no other back has more than three. And while I have no evidence to back this up, I’m going to guess he’s the only running back who’s ever hurdled a defender backward.
The MVP is a narrative award as much as it is a statistical one, and it’s easy to craft the narrative that Barkley has meant as much to the Eagles as any quarterback has meant to their team. Philadelphia has the lowest pass rate in the NFL. The NFC East leaders ask more of their run game than any team in the league—and Philadelphia still has the league’s most efficient run game by EPA despite the high usage rate. And their success on those plays (0.09 EPA per run) is way up from last season (when it was 0.01 per run), per TruMedia. That’s after the Eagles lost perhaps the best center of all time, Jason Kelce, who was certainly the most important piece of Philadelphia’s run game before Barkley arrived.
The run-heavy, Saquon-centric approach has been a winning strategy through 12 weeks. The Eagles trail only the Lions, another run-first team, in the NFC standings and are just a game out from first place. Barkley has been Philly’s best and most important player throughout the season. With Detroit stuck in football’s toughest division, and the Chiefs looking even more vulnerable after a close call against the Panthers on Sunday, it’s possible to consider that the Eagles could wind up with the league’s best record by the end of the season.
The MVP has essentially become the “best offensive player on the best team” award over the last decade—and Barkley has the potential to fit that bill and do something historic. He’s currently on pace for 2,151 rushing yards, which would surpass Eric Dickerson’s single-season record of 2,105 (which he set in 16 games.) Last year, San Francisco’s Christian McCaffrey finished third in MVP voting, behind Lamar Jackson and Dak Prescott. If Barkley can keep this up and can lead Philadelphia to the NFL’s best record, voters could show him some love at the very least.
Winner: NFC East Chaos
If you need to catch up on what you missed in the wild Cowboys-Commanders matchup, you can just skip the first 55 minutes of the game to get to the good stuff. Dallas led Washington 13-9 with 5:22 left on the clock in what had been a poorly played game up to that point. The quality of football didn’t get any better in those final minutes, but the ineptitude of both teams led to a highly entertaining finish. It started with a Cooper Rush touchdown pass against a busted coverage by the Commanders. Washington was in a Cover 2, but one of those “2” didn’t get the message.
Washington quarterback Jayden Daniels answered by leading an impressive touchdown drive to cut Dallas’s lead to three after a successful two-point conversion, but the Cowboys immediately responded with a 99-yard kickoff return touchdown. KaVontae Turpin took it to the house after initially muffing the return and getting away with an ill-advised spin move.
Washington cut back into the lead after Dan Quinn made an odd decision to kick a 51-yard field goal on second down. But it seemed like a stroke of genius after Quinn’s defense forced a quick three-and-out, getting the ball back to Daniels, who launched an 86-yard touchdown pass to Terry McLaurin that looked like it would be the game-tying score with 21 seconds left. McLaurin made a spectacular catch-and-run, but the tackling effort from the Dallas secondary left a lot to be desired. Had the Cowboys been able to bring McLaurin down in bounds, the game would have been over.
Then Washington kicker Austin Seibert shanked the game-tying extra point. Dallas could have ended the game by simply covering up Washington’s onside kick attempt, but Juanyeh Thomas returned the onside kick attempt for (an unnecessary) touchdown.
That score stretched the Cowboys’ lead to eight, giving Daniels and the Commanders one final shot at a Hail Mary to force overtime. History wouldn’t repeat itself, though, and the madness in Landover finally ended when Daniels’s pass came up well short of the end zone and was intercepted.
It was a brutal way for the Commanders to lose a football game; they have now lost three in a row after starting the season 7-2. They’ve dropped to the seventh seed in the NFC playoff race and are just half a game ahead of Arizona in the standings. Washington has another winnable home game against the Titans next week before a badly needed bye, but the remaining schedule will be challenging to navigate. They get a resurgent Saints team on the road in Week 15 and Philly and Atlanta at home the two games after that, and then they finish on the road against this Cowboys team that just beat them.
Washington’s playoff odds still look good—and this season looks like a step in the right direction no matter how it ends thanks to Daniels’s emergence—but the vibes have taken a sudden downturn in the past few weeks. Daniels isn’t playing nearly as well as he did to start the season, and offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury seems to be running out of answers. The Cowboys clamped down on the Commanders’ running backs on early downs and then spammed blitzes on third down. Kingsbury and Daniels couldn’t figure out how to make Dallas pay for the aggressive game plan outside of a few explosive quarterback runs.
After starting the season on a tear, Daniels ranks 29th in expected points added per dropback and is 30th in dropback success rate over the past three weeks, per TruMedia. Second-half regression has been a feature of the Kingsbury offense since he made the leap from college football to the NFL in 2019. The Washington offensive coordinator was asked about the troubling trend earlier this week and said he was unaware of the problem. He might want to look into it. If he can’t fix the Commanders offense and make things easier for his rookie quarterback soon, a playoff berth could slip away.
Loser: New York Football
That’s right, I’m giving the entire state an L for the football it produced this weekend, which started with Army getting run off the field by Notre Dame at Yankee Stadium on Saturday and ended with the Giants getting steamrolled by the Buccaneers 30-7 on Sunday. The Jets were on a bye but still managed to generate embarrassing headlines this week. And if we want to include New Jersey in this loss party—you know, since that’s where the Giants and Jets actually play—Rutgers also suffered an embarrassing loss after an attempt to ice Illinois’s kicker backfired hilariously.
Hopefully former Illini quarterback Tommy DeVito enjoyed the win for his alma mater because he was in for a shitty Sunday after being thrust into the starting lineup when Daniel Jones was benched (and then cut) this week. It’s still unclear why the Giants went with DeVito, who looked out of his depth when he played last season, instead of Drew Lock. We didn’t get any more clarity on Sunday. DeVito unsurprisingly struggled against the Buccaneers defense. The pass protection, which had played poorly throughout the season and didn’t help Jones much before his benching, didn’t improve. Head coach Brian Daboll couldn’t figure out a way to get the ball in the hands of his playmakers, notably rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who aired his frustrations after the game.
The Giants ended the game with just 245 yards of offense. They averaged 4.7 yards per pass and 3.8 yards per run. It was New York’s third-worst offensive performance of the season by EPA, but it may have been the saddest. Getting dunked on by Baker Mayfield feels like a new low.
At least when this kind of game happened in the past, Giants fans could take their frustrations out on the overpaid quarterback. Pinning all these problems on DeVito just feels wrong.
Winner: Playing the Bears in Crunch Time
I wasn’t going to waste another “loser” blurb on Matt Eberflus. He’s been a mainstay on that side of this column over the past month, thanks to repeated displays of coaching malpractice in crunch time. Chicago lost another close game on Sunday, falling to the Vikings in overtime, but Eberflus didn’t make any egregious decisions in this one. His call to go for two after cutting Minnesota’s lead to eight in the fourth quarter was an analytically sharp move. It didn’t change the outcome, though. Chicago dropped its second straight one-possession game, and Eberflus’s record in close games dropped to a league-worst 5-18.
While Eberflus’s game management was mostly fine, his defensive play-calling will be scrutinized this week after his unit let the Vikings off the hook several times during their game-winning drive in overtime. Sam Darnold faced a first-and-20, second-and-17, and third-and-10, and the Bears defense couldn’t get the Vikings off the field, setting up John Parker Romo for an easy chip-shot field goal to end the game.
But Eberflus wasn’t the only Bear leaning into the bit. Kicker Cairo Santos had a field goal blocked for a league-high third time this season. In all three cases, the opposing team caved in the left side of the Chicago line to block the kick. Recurring issues are the surest sign of incompetent coaching.
Despite the heartbreaking finish, Bears fans should be happy with Sunday’s performance. They got one step closer to the end of the Eberflus era, they improved their standing in the draft order with the loss, and rookie QB Caleb Williams spent the afternoon reminding everyone why he was billed as a generational prospect. He threw for 340 yards and two touchdowns and did not throw an interception. He did it against a Brian Flores defense that has been known to make young quarterbacks see ghosts. Williams was decisive with the football—outside of taking a bad sack in overtime, that is—and attacked narrow windows with tight spirals that cut through a strong Chicago wind. He made plays in and out of the pocket, including this Throw of the Year candidate.
I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a throw quite like that. It wasn’t an off-platform throw—it was a no-platform throw. Williams threw it with both feet off the ground and both knees bent!
If I attempted this throw, my core would explode. I’m straining just watching the replay. Williams also made some more traditional throws, including this rocket to move the chains on third-and-12.
This performance had it all: Quick, timely decisions to beat the blitz, creative scrambles to salvage broken plays, and a number of clutch plays to get the Bears to overtime.
Williams finally ran out of magic in overtime, but he’s now strung together two good performances against top-10 defenses since the team fired offensive coordinator Shane Waldron. Bears fans might not have a head coach they can trust long term, but they may have (finally) found a franchise quarterback.
Loser: Houston Texans
The Texans should be thankful they play in the AFC South. Otherwise, they might be in real danger of a late-season collapse. But with the Colts looking incapable of stringing together competent performances and the Jaguars and Titans in contention for the first pick in next year’s draft, Houston won’t be feeling much pressure down the stretch. Even after dropping a game to Tennessee in alarming fashion on Sunday, the Texans own a two-game lead in the AFC South.
So while the playoffs still look like a lock for Houston, it might be time to readjust expectations for a team that looked like a legit Super Bowl contender after its 5-1 start. The Texans have lost four of their last six, and each loss can be blamed on a different issue, whether it’s been Bobby Slowik’s lackluster offensive play-calling, C.J. Stroud’s turnover issues, or DeMeco Ryans’s defense. On Sunday, it was a combination of all three. Slowik’s run game was completely stifled by Tennessee’s dominant front, and those issues on the ground put Stroud in unfavorable down-and-distance situations. He responded by throwing two interceptions—his fourth multi-turnover game of the season. He had only two such games during his entire rookie campaign.
Houston’s offense made plenty of mistakes, but this loss ultimately fell on the defense, which allowed a bad Titans offense to put up 30 points for only the second time this season. There’s no other way to say it: Ryans was outcoached by Tennessee’s Brian Callahan, who put together a smart plan to exploit Houston’s aggressive defense. The Titans called trap runs, draw plays, screens, and double-moves to make the Texans pay for playing fast. Receiver Nick Westbrook-Ikhine burned the secondary with a double-move that got him wide open for Tennessee’s first touchdown.
A fake sweep got the Texans’ defensive front moving downhill, leaving Chig Okonkwo in wide-open space, and he took care of the rest on a 70-yard touchdown to give the Titans the lead in the fourth quarter.
That touchdown was enough to put the game away. Tennessee won 32-27, but the score could have been much worse for Houston. Tennessee’s erratic young QB Will Levis was sacked eight times, threw a terrible pick-six, and had an aborted snap that the Texans recovered. Returner Jha’Quan Jackson muffed a punt that gave Houston a short field. The Titans also gifted them an early 7-0 lead after giving up a big return on the opening kickoff and a touchdown pass on the first offensive snap of the game. This wasn’t a fluky win for Tennessee. The Titans earned it.
Right now, 12 teams have a better point differential than the Texans. Of the seven teams currently in the line for an AFC playoff berth, Houston’s plus-17 scoring margin ranks dead last. It’s beaten one team with a winning record all season (the Bills) and that came back in early October. And now the Texans are losing to losing teams. They’ll still make the playoffs, but we shouldn’t expect them to do much once they get there.
Winners: Mike McDaniel and Tua Tagovailoa
The Dolphins are still alive. A 34-15 win over the Patriots on Sunday improved their record to 5-6 and pulled them within a game and a half of the Broncos for the final spot in the AFC playoff field. More importantly, Miami’s offense looks like itself again, a few weeks after Tagovailoa returned from injured reserve because of the concussion he suffered in Week 2. The Dolphins have ripped off three straight wins and averaged over 30 points per game during that streak.
Tagovailoa deserves a lot of the credit for the turnaround. His signature timing and accuracy have helped power the Dolphins offense after it struggled to do much of anything during his absence.
Dolphins offense, before and after Tua’s return
But head coach Mike McDaniel also deserves a share of the credit. With defenses selling out to take away the deep shots to Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, McDaniel has adjusted his scheme to attack the shorter part of the field. Tagovailoa has the NFL’s lowest average depth of target, at 5.6 yards. He has the league’s quickest average time to throw. He’s one of four quarterbacks averaging a positive EPA on throws behind the line of scrimmage. And only Baker Mayfield is getting a higher percentage of his passing yards after the catch, per TruMedia.
And while McDaniel is scheming things up for Tagovailoa, the quarterback is performing well on the more difficult plays. Only two passers have a higher EPA average on throws beyond the line of scrimmage, per TruMedia. Tagovailoa hasn’t thrown an interception on a pass over 15 air yards since his return.
The playoffs look like a realistic goal, but the path to the postseason will not be easy. Miami travels to Green Bay on Thanksgiving night, and the early weather report calls for 18-degree weather—and Tagovailoa’s issues in the cold have been well documented. The Dolphins also travel to Houston in a few weeks, though that matchup looks a bit easier given how the Texans have played of late. Miami will play the 49ers in Week 16, when Kyle Shanahan’s team should be healthier than it was on Sunday. The Dolphins have no margin for error, but with Tagovailoa and the offense playing like this, they might not need one.
Loser: The 49ers’ Playoff Hopes
Five percent. That’s where San Francisco’s odds of making the playoffs stand after Sunday’s 38-10 loss to the Packers, according to the New York Times playoff simulator. They’re in last place in the NFC West and falling further behind in the wild-card race. But it’s hard to fault Kyle Shanahan for this latest setback. The 49ers were without quarterback Brock Purdy (shoulder), left tackle Trent Williams (ankle), and pass rusher Nick Bosa (hip) against Green Bay. Shanahan made Brandon Allen, who filled in for Purdy, look somewhat competent, but the Packers were keyed in on San Francisco’s run game, and the backup quarterback eventually folded when the game script got out of hand.
It’s getting late for Shanahan’s team, but I’m unwilling to write the 49ers off completely. I’m still not sure they aren’t the NFC West’s best team after Arizona lost to Seattle and surrendered first place to the Seahawks. The 49ers are just a game back of first place in the division, so it wouldn’t be much of a surprise if they manage to sneak into the postseason. They’ll just have to do it against a tough schedule that includes a trip to Buffalo next week, a game against the surging Dolphins in Miami next month, and a game against 10-1 Detroit, all before they finish the season on the road in Arizona. That final game could decide the division, but the 49ers will have to get healthy and stop giving away games. Through 12 weeks, the defending NFC champs haven’t looked capable of doing either.
Winner: Mike Macdonald
Just two weeks ago, the Seahawks were sitting at 4-5, having lost five of their last six games. Mike Macdonald’s defense was imploding and the offensive line was struggling to keep quarterback Geno Smith upright. But after Sunday’s 16-6 win over the Cardinals in rainy Seattle, the Seahawks will go into Week 13 leading the division. And while the offense still isn’t doing Smith any favors, Macdonald’s defense has rounded into form just in time for the home stretch.
Sunday’s performance was the team’s best of the season. The Seahawks cooled off a red-hot Cardinals offense, holding Arizona without a touchdown for only the third time in the Kyler Murray era. Seattle’s run defense set the foundation for a successful day. The Cardinals came into the game ranked fifth in success rate and first in explosive run rate. Per TruMedia, Seattle held Arizona to a 14-percent success rate on the ground and gave up just one explosive run—a 14-yard gain for Emari Demarcado that failed to move the chains on third-and-18. This was a dominant showing against one of the league’s best run games.
Seattle’s defensive turnaround was sparked by Macdonald’s bold decision to blow up his linebacker corps mid-season. The first-year head coach traded one starting linebacker, Jerome Baker, and cut another one, Tyrel Dodson, around the trade deadline. Linebacker Ernest Jones IV came over from Tennessee in the deal for Baker and hasn’t missed a tackle in four games for Seattle. Fourth-round rookie Tyrice Knight took over for Dodson and has given Macdonald strong play against the run. Over the past four weeks, Seattle ranks in the top 10 in rushing average allowed, rushing EPA allowed, and rushing success rate, per TruMedia.
The success against the run has led to more obvious passing situations for Macdonald’s defense. That’s where he thrives as a play caller. He can get his unit into his exotic fronts and coverages, which are difficult for even the best quarterbacks to figure out, as Murray learned in his first matchup with the Seahawks’ defensive-minded head coach. The Cardinals QB averaged minus-0.92 EPA per dropback with a 27.3-percent success rate against Seattle on third and fourth down in the loss. A lot of passers have fallen victim to Macdonald’s mind-bending pass defense. If the Seahawks’ run defense, led by new linebackers and a healthier defensive line, can keep up their recent form, Murray won’t be the last quarterback to come up short against Seattle.
