Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the season, you’ll get my takes on the biggest stories in the league, with an eye on what’s to come. This week, I’m handicapping a chaotic NFC West, making a pick in the NFC South, explaining why it IS time to panic about the Texans, and breaking down Monday night’s HarBowl.
The NFC West has been thrown into complete chaos.
Here at Under Review, we are #TeamContent. Rooting for a team? Sure, that might be fun. But you know what really gets the juices flowing? Rooting for chaos. For narratives. For takes. After all, we have podcast hours and column space to fill over here! Thankfully, the NFC West has agreed to help us out. With six weeks left in the season, we have four teams separated by one game in the standings. The Seahawks and Cardinals are 6-5. The Rams and 49ers are 5-6. So who is best positioned to win the division? Let’s go team by team and handicap the race.
Seattle Seahawks: A couple of weeks ago, it felt like they had the longest odds of any team in the NFC West. Now, after wins against the 49ers and Cardinals, the Seahawks are in first place. There was a huge moment in the third quarter of Sunday’s game against Arizona that symbolized how Seattle has turned its season around. The Cardinals were facing a fourth-and-1 from the Seahawks’ 40. Before Arizona snapped the ball, Seattle coach Mike Macdonald called a timeout. When the teams went back on the field, Seahawks defenders were ready for what was coming. Cornerback Devon Witherspoon made a fantastic play to chase down Kyler Murray, who threw an off-target pass that was intercepted by Coby Bryant and returned for a touchdown. It was the biggest play of the game.
The Seahawks didn’t allow a touchdown against a Cardinals offense that had been playing well. And this isn’t just a one-game thing. Seattle’s defense has been coming on strong for a few weeks now. It’s made changes at linebacker. It’s gotten healthier. And most importantly, Macdonald, who arrived in Seattle with a reputation for being one of the best defensive schemers and play callers in the NFL, has found his fastball.
The Seahawks’ remaining schedule ranks 12th hardest overall. Their biggest question is the same one we’ve been asking for a decade: Can their offensive line be good enough? But make no mistake about it: Right now, the Seahawks have the most trustworthy defense in the division. And no offensive coordinator will want to see Macdonald in a one-game playoff given how his group is playing right now.
Arizona Cardinals: FanDuel has the Cardinals as slight favorites over the Seahawks, and I see two reasons for that. One, the Cardinals have the easiest remaining schedule of any team in the division (ninth easiest overall). And two, their offense has been really good for most of the season. This is a case where we have to zoom out and avoid recency bias. Sure, the Cardinals offense got shut down against the Seahawks, but through 12 weeks, it ranks sixth in success rate. The defense is undoubtedly playing way better than it was earlier in the season but still ranks 30th in success rate. The Cardinals have a clear talent deficiency on that side of the ball, and some weeks, there’s just no way for Jonathan Gannon to coach around it. The formula for Arizona is simple: win with offense and hope the defense can be just good enough the rest of the way.
Los Angeles Rams: Their issues during a 37-20 loss to the Eagles Sunday night were pretty clear. One, they couldn’t protect quarterback Matthew Stafford. When Stafford has time, he can carve defenses up—especially now that both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp are healthy. But if the Rams can’t block well enough, their biggest strength gets taken away. And two, they’ll be at a talent disadvantage on defense most weeks—specifically in the secondary. Having said that, there’s still plenty to like about this Rams team. With the Sean McVay–Stafford battery, the offense will usually be competitive. And they have a pass rush that can do damage—especially if they’re playing with a lead. The Rams have the 13th-hardest remaining schedule. They’ll need the passing game to carry them to make a run. But as long as Stafford is healthy, they have a chance.
San Francisco 49ers: Here’s the deal: The 49ers are most likely cooked. But in the unlikely event that they aren’t cooked, they can make it to the Super Bowl. Confused? OK, let me explain. They have the worst odds to win the division of any NFC West team. They got blown out by the Packers, 38-10, in Week 12. They are currently dealing with injuries to three of their most important players: quarterback Brock Purdy, left tackle Trent Williams, and defensive end Nick Bosa. The odds of all these players coming back healthy and the 49ers going on a run are low—especially considering that they have the third-hardest remaining schedule in the league.
But if they do get healthy, they still have a chance. You might be surprised to learn that, among the NFC West teams, the 49ers rank highest (ninth overall) in DVOA. Unfortunately, division titles are not determined by DVOA (although, to be honest, that might be a more fair way to do it!). The point is that the 49ers have been stung by bad luck, bad injuries, and bad special teams. But they are not irreparably broken, and they still have plenty of talent. Every year, there’s a team I hang on to for way too long. It’s like refusing to get out of a bad relationship and convincing yourself that things can still work out even when it’s clear to everyone else that it’s over. That could be me with the 49ers this year. But I can’t help it. I’m not all the way out just yet.
Oh, what’s that? You’re not going to let me get out of here without making a pick? OK, fine. I change my mind roughly every 45 minutes on this, but give me the Seahawks. The quality of the Macdonald fist pump is the ultimate tiebreaker.
Thanks to John Harbaugh, the nerds have their king back.
Just imagine the discourse Tuesday morning if the Ravens didn’t convert. You know the play I’m talking about from Monday night’s game against the Chargers. Fourth-and-1 from their own 16 late in the first half. The Ravens tried to draw the Chargers offside, but it didn’t work. After the two-minute warning, they decided to really go for it, and the play call was bold. Direct snap to Mark Andrews for 2 yards. First down. Five plays later, the Ravens scored on a Lamar Jackson touchdown pass to Rashod Bateman to take their first lead of the game, 14-10, and they never trailed again.
If that fourth-down decision had failed, you’d hear John Harbaugh described as reckless: someone who either got caught up in the moment or is too obsessed with analytics to exercise any common sense. But because the Ravens converted (and, oh, by the way, it led to the biggest swing in the game), those very same people who would have ripped him will be silent this week.
The thing about Harbaugh is that he tends to make decisions based on the team he thinks he has. The Ravens are winning this season with their offense, while their defense is very much a work in progress. So when it comes down to the high-leverage plays that will determine the outcomes of games, Harbaugh would seemingly rather take his chances with his offense this season. Last year, when the Ravens had a great defense, Harbaugh was much more conservative with his in-game decisions, and the football nerds feared that they’d lost their leader. But guess what! He’s back, baby!
It wasn’t just that one call, either. Facing a fourth-and-1 from their own 39 in the second half, the Ravens went for it once again, and Derrick Henry broke off a 27-yard run. On the same drive, they went for it on fourth-and-1 from the Chargers’ 25 and converted a third time. That drive resulted in a touchdown. A lot of coaches wouldn’t even think about going for it inside their own 40 in a one-score game. Others would have screamed “TAKE THE POINTS!” from the mountaintops as soon as they got to field goal range. But Harbaugh was aggressive each time, and it paid off.
The point is, you won’t always be successful. You need to decide what kind of team you have and what your approach will be. You need to be thoughtful and have a plan and avoid leaning on the almighty gut. Harbaugh was spending time on this stuff years ago, talking about things like win probability and expected points added long before it was cool. If he had turtled up Monday night against his brother’s Chargers and gotten conservative, who knows how that game would’ve gone? The in-game decision-making was a significant factor in the outcome. So congrats to John. The nerds (yes, I am one of them) might never experience the thrill of hoisting the Lombardi. But please know that we were pumping our fists in support of those fourth-down calls. One of us! One of us!
There’s not much separating the haves from the have-nots in the AFC playoff picture.
That’s what I was thinking as I watched Ravens-Chargers on Monday night. Sure, Baltimore took control of that game in the fourth quarter, but for most of the night, it didn’t seem like there was a whole lot separating those two teams. The betting line (with the Ravens favored by 2.5 or three points) told us as much going in.
This time of the year, after every week, I like to look at the potential playoff matchups. And this season, it’s hard to draw that line between “teams that can get to the Super Bowl” and everyone else in the AFC. Here’s what the seeding currently looks like.
- Chiefs (bye)
- Bills
- Steelers
- Texans
- Ravens
- Chargers
- Broncos
Maybe you think it’ll definitely be the Chiefs, Bills, or Ravens going to the Super Bowl from the AFC. I think that’s likely, but didn’t Kansas City just need a last-second field goal to avoid an upset against the 3-8 Panthers? The Bills are clearly a very good team, but they haven’t exactly been the most reliable group in the postseason (sorry, Bills fans, you know I love you, but it’s true). The Ravens might be the best team in the AFC, but given the up-and-down way their season has gone and the way their defense has played, do you really trust them to put together three strong performances in a row in January? Because that’s what it’ll take.
The Steelers have overachieved, but they’re no longer the betting favorites to win the AFC North. If you can find someone who truly thinks their offense is good enough to get to the Super Bowl, please send them my way because I don’t believe they exist. We’ll get into the Texans’ flaws in a minute. The Chargers are probably at least a year away from being taken seriously as contenders, but that doesn’t mean they’re going to be an easy out since they have Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh. And the Broncos under Sean Payton will be frisky.
What’s my point? It’s not completely wide open this season, but the AFC is more wide open than usual. There’s no juggernaut, and I don’t think the playoffs will go chalk. In the weeks ahead, there will be injuries and surprises and “team that no one wants to play” declarations, so maybe I’ll change my mind once we get to January. But for now, things are shaping up quite nicely, both for me and for #TeamContent.
It’s officially OK to panic about the Texans.
There are a bunch of reasons why the Texans got upset by the Titans on Sunday. The defense gave up too many big plays. They had a touchdown called back for an illegal shift penalty. And they missed a 28-yard field goal late in the fourth quarter. But the thing that has me in full “I’m not mad, I’m just disappointed” dad mode is the offense, which managed just 12 first downs.
If this were a one-game thing, I wouldn’t be sounding any alarms. The problem is that we’re 12 weeks into the season, and the Texans offense has been arguably the most disappointing unit in the NFL. This was a group that was supposed to be making the leap in 2024. Quarterback C.J. Stroud was entering his second season. Their offensive line was supposed to be healthier. They added wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon. Second-year player Tank Dell was coming back from an injury, and offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik returned after getting buzz as a potential head coaching candidate. All of the pieces were seemingly in place.
It hasn’t come together. The offense has instead regressed, significantly. On the season, Houston’s offense ranks 30th in success rate—ahead of only the Cleveland Browns and Indianapolis Colts. That is an unacceptable outcome when you have a young quarterback as talented as Stroud. The offensive line is a huge issue. Stroud is being pressured on 41 percent of his dropbacks, which is the third-highest rate for any starter, according to Next Gen Stats. And the run game is abysmal; Houston’s rushing success rate ranks 31st, ahead of only the Raiders. These aren’t “not quite good enough” numbers we’re talking about. These are “among the worst in the league” numbers.
With an offensive line that can’t protect, a running game that stinks, and a scheme that’s not providing great answers, it’s obvious that Stroud is being asked to carry too heavy of a load, and it’s affecting him. The good news is that you still see Stroud make a bunch of high-level plays every week. The bad news is that improvement for young quarterbacks is not linear, and Stroud is missing more throws than he did last year. His adjusted completion percentage (which takes drops into account) ranks 28th out of 31 qualifying quarterbacks, according to Pro Football Focus. And 21.8 percent of Stroud’s pressured dropbacks have turned into sacks; that ranks 23rd.
Let me be clear: I am still a Stroud believer. I’m also a DeMeco Ryans believer. And this Houston pass rush is one of the best in the NFL. There are ingredients here to suggest that the Texans can get back on track and make a playoff run in the AFC. But the results on offense have been too bad to ignore, and it’s too late to assume they’ll be fixed. Until I see the Texans prove that they have answers, I’ll assume that these issues might not be correctable until the offseason. And if that’s the case, they’re likely looking at an early playoff exit and a disappointing season.
The Bucs are winning the NFC South.
I feel like I’ve barely written about the Bucs in this space this season. As someone well-versed in coach and athlete speak, all I can say is: That’s on me. Coming into the year, I guess I just thought they were a cute team in a bad division. To be fair, that description isn’t too far off. Tampa is 5-6 and in second place in the NFC South, behind the 6-5 Falcons. You won’t find anyone predicting that the Bucs will make a Super Bowl run. But so what? This team has still been far more interesting than I anticipated. And I think it’s about to win the division for the fourth consecutive season.
In Week 12, the Bucs delivered a 30-7 victory against the Giants. The game was not close. It was 23-0 at halftime, and Tampa outgained the Giants 450 yards to 245. What’s impressed me about this group is how offensive coordinator Liam Coen has quietly schemed up one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL. The Bucs rank fourth in offensive success rate, fifth in expected points added per drive, and seventh in DVOA. Baker Mayfield has played well, but the key is that Coen has not asked Mayfield to be Superman. Next Gen Stats tracks a metric called expected completion percentage that looks at the types of throws each quarterback is making based on distance, pressure, and how close the nearest defender is to the receiver, among other factors. Mayfield’s expected completion percentage is 70.6 percent—second highest in the NFL, behind only Tua Tagovailoa. In other words, the scheme is creating layups, Mayfield knows how to find them, and he’s executing at a high level. That’s the result of good coaching. Regular readers know that I like to ask, “Are they doing more with less?” to evaluate how coaches are performing. It’s hard to come up with a reasonable argument that would suggest this offense is leaving meat on the bone—especially considering the injuries Tampa Bay has dealt with to wide receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, along with left tackle Tristan Wirfs.
The Bucs defense is more mediocre than good. But the offense is why I’m bullish on them to overtake the Falcons. It also helps that they have the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. Again, I’m not telling you that the Bucs are a Super Bowl contender. But they’re a well-coached, fun group that will be competitive against most of the opponents they face. And given how much space I typically dedicate to ripping bad coaching jobs, I thought it was worth a little changeup here. It is the holiday season, after all.
