Bill Belichick always said the football season doesn’t truly begin until after Thanksgiving. Unfortunately for us fans, the season is essentially over for three of the six teams who will be in the national spotlight this Thursday: the Cowboys, Bears, and Giants.
The NFL has reached the two-thirds point of the regular season, and the Buffalo Bills, Kansas City Chiefs, and Detroit Lions all have a chance to clinch their division.
Here are my thoughts on all 16 games in Week 13, starting with the Thanksgiving Day triple-header. All lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday morning, unless otherwise noted.
Thanksgiving Day
Chicago Bears at Detroit Lions (-10.5)
If you want any chance of containing the Lions, it starts with the ability to defend the run. The Colts’ improving defense gave up only 24 points to Detroit, mostly because they held the Lions to 4.2 yards per carry. It’s too easy for the Lions to run up the score if they’re able to play as a frontrunner and bully teams at the line of scrimmage. The whole offense is centered around effective running plus easy explosives through Jared Goff and the play-action pass game.
The Bears enter this week ranked 22nd in EPA per rush allowed, and 30th in DVOA against the run. Combine that with the fact that Chicago allows the second-highest percentage of explosive plays and it’s not hard to see the Lions dominating the ball and scoring a ton of points in this game.
Minnesota scored 27 points in regulation last Sunday in Chicago despite an Aaron Jones fumble on the goal line on the opening drive. Now indoors, coming off an overtime defeat and the season slipping away, I don’t have any faith in the Bears defense to get stops here.
Verdict: Bet Lions -10.5.
New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-3.5)
Brian Daboll said on Tuesday that Tommy DeVito is dealing with a forearm injury and Drew Lock was taking reps with the starters just in case DeVito couldn’t play. Reading between the lines, it feels like Daboll is preparing to start Lock, who is a clear upgrade over DeVito. I’m not sure if the Giants are actually trying to win these games down the stretch, but you should expect a full effort from them given the holiday occasion and a divisional matchup.
The Giants have lost seven straight games to the Cowboys, making this their best chance for a win in a long time. I wasn’t right about much in this column last week, but I was correct that DeVito is unable to help make the offense competitive. His final stat line from last week, with 6.1 yards per attempt, is a bit misleading. In the first half, before the game was out of reach, the Giants had 17 plays for 46 total yards.
Out of the 82 quarterbacks who have played at least 200 snaps since the 2020 season, DeVito now ranks dead last in success rate at 35.5 percent. Lock (67th) isn’t much better, but there’s a significant gap to the spread that would warrant a bet on the Giants if he starts. With DeVito, the Giants won’t be able to consistently move the ball.
Verdict: Lean Giants +4, would bet them at +3 or better with Lock starting.
Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers (-3.5)
Green Bay and Miami enter this game with two of the league’s top five offenses by success rate in the last five weeks. The Packers offense has been boom-or-bust most of the season, with lower success rates and more reliance on big plays. They’ve played the second-toughest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL by DVOA and rank third in the metric overall.
You’re probably going to read and hear a lot about how the Dolphins aren’t built for the cold weather at Lambeau Field. Their playoff game in January at Arrowhead was embarrassing, but this cold isn’t anywhere near as extreme as that Chiefs game. Forecasted temperatures are below 20 degrees, but with little wind and no precipitation scheduled, this isn’t a bad matchup for either offense to move the ball.
Miami’s defense is below average at producing havoc, and the Packers offense has an excellent matchup on paper. The Dolphins defense was carved open by Buffalo twice and by Arizona. They’ve played the second-easiest schedule of opposing offenses. Wins against the Raiders and Patriots at home don’t change my overall view that the Dolphins defense is vulnerable. The Packers will score, and this game will come down to whether the Dolphins can overcome their cold-weather demons.
Verdict: Bet Packers team total over 25.5 (-108).
Black Friday
Las Vegas Raiders at Kansas City Chiefs (-12.5)
The Raiders’ starting quarterback roulette wheel has landed on Aidan O’Connell this week, which means that Black Friday NFL viewers have been blessed with Tim Boyle and O’Connell in back-to-back seasons. The Chiefs still haven’t covered any of their six games when laying more than six points this season. Zooming out, they needed a last-second field goal to beat Carolina, overtime to beat Tampa Bay, and a blocked field goal to beat Denver.
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Kansas City’s pass defense is showing some cracks. Since cornerback Jaylen Watson went out with an injury, the secondary has taken a significant step back. Unlike last season, when the Chiefs defense carried the offense through its rough patch, this secondary doesn’t look equipped to repeat that in the stretch run this season.
Last week, Bryce Young averaged his highest yards per attempt in any full game this season at 7.5. He excelled against the blitz, where the Chiefs secondary failed to hold up in man coverage.
The Raiders lost by 10 last week at home against Denver, but finished the game with more total yards and first downs than the Broncos. It was a toss-up game by the box score and the Raiders are the only way you could look at betting this game.
Verdict: Lean Raiders +12.5.
Sunday Matchups
Los Angeles Chargers at Atlanta Falcons (+1.5)
The bye came at an excellent time for the Falcons, who needed time off following a brutal defeat at Denver. Multiple players in the Falcons secondary are battling injuries, including corners Dee Alford and Mike Hughes. Neither played in the loss to Denver, and it showed. Atlanta ranks dead last in havoc created in the NFL, which should mean plenty of offense for the Chargers in this game. Conversely, the Chargers rank seventh defensively in generating negative plays, suggesting their defense will offer far more resistance.
It’s a bit risky to support the Chargers given the rest advantage for Atlanta. Los Angeles faced a tough Baltimore team on Monday night and now must travel across the country to play a well-rested Atlanta team. Additionally, the Chargers offense is still not performing at its best. They rank 29th in early-down success rate since Week 5, when they had their bye.
For me, it’s only a slight preference for the Chargers, as I have more faith in their quarterback, coach, and defense in a close game.
Verdict: Lean Chargers -1.5 (-110).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Cincinnati Bengals (-2.5)
Looking at this spread, it may be surprising that the 8-3 Steelers are underdogs against the 4-7 Bengals. The Bengals have been struggling with defensive issues, while the Steelers’ defensive problems have been flying under the radar. Since Week 7, the Steelers have ranked 28th in EPA per rush allowed, and their defense is down to 18th for the season in pressure rate. Although Pittsburgh is still good at creating havoc and making key defensive plays, their recent performance hasn’t been at a top-five level, putting more pressure on their offense.
The Bengals have difficulty defending against methodical and efficient offenses. Teams like the Eagles, Commanders, Ravens, and Chargers have been able to move the ball consistently on Cincinnati without relying on big plays. Despite this, the Bengals are among the top six at limiting explosive plays. Given the Steelers offense struggles, ranking 30th in success rate since Russell Wilson became the starting QB, they may not be able to exploit the Bengals’ weaknesses.
Cincinnati’s offensive efficiency makes them a strong choice in this matchup, and they should be favored by more than just 2.5 points. I’d bet Cincinnati if the spread is -2.5 or less.
Verdict: Bet Bengals -2.5 (-120).
Arizona Cardinals at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5)
The Cardinals defense has allowed fewer than 10 points to its last three opponents (Seattle’s 16 points last week included a pick-six defensive touchdown), a feat that would have seemed highly unlikely before the season began given the limited talent of their defensive personnel. Arizona has faced the second-toughest schedule of opposing offenses and is currently ranked 12th in defensive DVOA.
The Vikings are returning home after three consecutive road games and are currently leading the NFC wild-card race. They have taken advantage of inexperienced quarterbacks in recent games against Mac Jones, Will Levis, and Caleb Williams, but Kyler Murray may be better equipped to handle the different defensive schemes and blitzes that Brian Flores will throw at him.
A home favorite on a win streak during a holiday week, following three straight away games, is a potential trap that I’ll be avoiding.
Verdict: Lean Cardinals +3.5 (-110).
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots (+2.5)
This game is intriguing to watch because of the two young quarterbacks with high potential but uneven performances. The Colts have faced the toughest schedule of opposing defenses, and will now play against one of the worst units in the league. Indianapolis has faced six of the nine best defenses in the league by DVOA, with only one game against a defense ranked outside the top 20. They scored 34 points in that game against Jacksonville, albeit with Joe Flacco as quarterback.
When led by Anthony Richardson, the Colts offense is one of the most unpredictable units in the NFL. Richardson has the highest aDOT in the league, three yards more than Jordan Love. While I would like to support Indianapolis, the lack of a running game in the past six weeks makes it difficult. The offense needs to improve early-down consistency, as they have had the worst run offense in the NFL since Week 7.
Playing against a weak New England defense may help the Colts, but I need to see them perform better before backing them.
Verdict: Lean Colts team total over 22.5 (-110).
Seattle Seahawks at New York Jets (+1.5)
The last time we saw the Jets play football, they didn’t get a first down until the second quarter. They had zero explosiveness as an offense and blew a fourth-quarter lead at home to Anthony Richardson in the final minute of the game. Maybe Aaron Rodgers is a little healthier coming out of the bye week, but when I watch him, he looks like a player who doesn’t want to get hit anymore. That’s reflected in how quickly he’s throwing the ball and how little he’s throwing down the field. As a result, the Jets offense takes forever to move the ball, even when they do score.
The Jets rank 23rd in explosive pass rate and 28th in aDOT. With Seattle’s defense trending up following three straight good performances against the Rams, Niners, and Cardinals, this is a great spot for an under look. The Seahawks are 29th in rushing success rate. Their defensive issues meant they were in a trailing game state for much of the early portion of the season, but their improved defense means they won’t need to be as pass-happy going forward.
The weakness of the Jets defense is against the run. Seattle’s early-down success rate has been quite mediocre, and temperatures will be below 40 degrees on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet under 41.5 (-110).
Tennessee Titans at Washington Commanders (-5.5)
It’s easy to look at the surface-level statistics like completion percentage and passer rating and conclude that Will Levis is playing considerably better of late. But when you add in the negative sacks taken and the backbreaking pick-six, it’s hard to give the Titans all that much of an upgrade from their divisional road victory in Houston on Sunday. Tennessee was successful on just 33.3 percent of its pass plays. That’s actually worse than their 23-13 loss to Minnesota the week prior. Levis has been sacked 35 times in seven full games.
The problem with this game is trying to sort out a proper rating on the Washington offense. Is Jayden Daniels healthy? The Commanders have said he is, but their offensive performance would suggest otherwise. Then there’s the second half Kliff Kingsbury curse, where his offenses tend to perform considerably worse in the latter half of the season.
Washington’s series success rate has declined in the last month. The run game has been less effective, and it’s really difficult to consistently run on this Tennessee defensive front. That means there will be stress on Daniels.
If this total gets above 45, I’ll be on the under. Otherwise, this game is a stay-away.
Verdict: Lean under 45 or better.
Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+4.5)
The question you should ask before this game is not who is going to win or cover the spread, but how does Doug Pederson still have a job? I’d have bet and lost a lot of money that he wouldn’t survive the bye week following the 52-6 drubbing against Detroit.
It’s worth noting just how bad the Jacksonville offense has looked in the last two weeks. Twenty-eight teams played football in Week 10. None were worse by success rate than the Jaguars’ 25.6 percent. Twenty-eight teams played football in Week 11. Only the Titans had a lower success rate than the Jaguars’ 34 percent. Maybe we’re underrating Trevor Lawrence solely because of how awful the offensive system is around him.
If Jacksonville starts Lawrence, I’ll actually be tempted to back them. But from a betting standpoint, I’m most disappointed we didn’t get to back the Jaguars in the first game post-coach-firing as a home underdog in the division. I’ve already earmarked the Texans for a first-round playoff fade, as they have the lowest percentage of successful offensive plays in the entire NFL.
Verdict: Lean Jaguars +5 (-110).
Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints (+3)
Saints interim head coach Darren Rizzi has clearly united the Saints’ locker room since taking over for Dennis Allen. New Orleans has won and covered twice as a home underdog against the Falcons and Browns, and now Rizzi faces another home game against the Rams. The Saints have not traveled from New Orleans since November 3, giving them a significant advantage in terms of rest and travel. Despite this, the market initially opened this game with the Rams favored by 2.5, but it has been bet up to Rams -3.
The Saints will likely rely heavily on the running game, especially after the Rams struggled to contain the Eagles. We may see a lot of Taysom Hill usage in this game. PFF grades the Rams as a bottom-10 tackling unit, a stat that makes me hesitant to back the Rams even though they have a considerable offensive success rate advantage.
Verdict: Pass.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Carolina Panthers (+5.5)
It wouldn’t be my weekly picks column without at least one bet that makes you question if you even like football or gambling when placing it. Last week it was the Raiders, who teased us until the final play and failed to cover in remarkable fashion. This week, it’s the Panthers +5.5. Whatever you think of Bryce Young and the Panthers, they have to be priced better than Tommy DeVito and the Giants were last week, especially in a divisional game. The Tampa Bay defense likes to bring pressure much like Kansas City, and Young excelled against a better version of a blitzing defense just last week.
Many people are considering the idea of Tampa Bay winning the NFC South. They may very well do that, but this is the kind of divisional road game you pencil in as a win, only to realize that Tampa Bay is entrenched in a close game late.
Carolina has struggled with effective rushing attacks all season, but that’s not the strength of the Buccaneers.
Verdict: Bet Panthers +5.5 (-110).
Philadelphia Eagles at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
The game of the week has the potential to be the game of the year. I have my doubts about Jalen Hurts and Philadelphia’s passing offense, but the Eagles’ statistical profile looks just as good as any team in the NFL. Philadelphia leads in explosive play differential at plus-29, while Detroit is second at plus-20. The offense isn’t quite top five overall, but remains a top-10 unit in EPA per drive.
The biggest difference between the 2023 Eagles and the 2024 Eagles is not Saquon Barkley. It’s the defense. Since the Eagles’ bye in Week 5, only the Lions have a better EPA per drive allowed. Last season, the defense was completely and utterly broken as the secondary aged and the defensive line struggled to generate pressure. This season, the Eagles are boosted by their excellent young corners and a pass rush that applied constant pressure to Matthew Stafford on Sunday night.
Philadelphia excels at preventing explosive plays compared to Baltimore. The Ravens have a clear weakness and that unit has struggled to make key stops all season long.
Both teams are likely to focus on establishing the run early, which could lead to a slower start in terms of scoring and pace. The Eagles had trouble with their script all season. The betting market suggests that the Ravens are slightly better than the Eagles by a point or two, but I disagree. I will be betting on the Eagles +3 and the first half under.
Verdict: Bet Eagles +3 (-110) and first half under 25.5 points (-110).
Sunday Night Football
San Francisco 49ers at Buffalo Bills (-6.5)
Without more information on the status of Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa for Sunday night, it’s challenging to form an informed opinion on betting this game. The 49ers are in one of the worst travel spots of the year making a second consecutive road trip across multiple time zones. San Francisco might have considered staying east after last week’s game at Green Bay, but the holiday week makes it harder to do that. Instead, the beat-up Niners will travel cross-country to face a Buffalo team coming off its bye week.
The 49ers running offense doesn’t seem as explosive with this version of Christian McCaffrey, and the 49ers defense is vulnerable due to the Bosa injury. Currently, the 49ers are exactly league average in defensive EPA per play. It hasn’t been an elite unit for multiple years now.
Verdict: Pass.
Monday Night Football
Cleveland Browns at Denver Broncos (-5.5)
The Browns’ three best performances of the season have all come in divisional home games. They outgained Cincinnati in a loss and then upset both Baltimore and Pittsburgh in classic Jameis Winston performances. The Browns followed up the win against the Ravens with a blowout loss to the Chargers, and some fear that outcome could be replicated in this game. Winston usually lets us down just when we start to believe in him, and his on-field stock has maybe never been higher following that game in the snow.
I believe that the market is too high on Denver at the moment, and its lackluster underlying performance against the Raiders offers some concern about backing the Broncos here as a sizable favorite. Denver’s résumé outside of games against NFC South teams is just average.
Verdict: Lean Browns +5.5 (-110).
Bets from this article made for Week 13:
Lions -10 vs. Bears (-110)
Packers team total over 24.5 vs. Dolphins (-110)
Bengals -2.5 vs. Steelers (-120)
Eagles +3 vs. Ravens (-110)
Eagles-Ravens first half under 25.5 (-110)
Panthers +6 vs. Buccaneers (-110)
Seahawks-Jets under 41.5 (-105)
