Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the season, you’ll get my takes on the biggest stories in the league, with an eye on what’s to come. This week, we’re looking at the Eagles’ defensive resurgence, breaking down why this is the worst Chiefs team of the Mahomes era, and why it might be time for a quarterback change in Atlanta. Plus, I’ll let you know which six teams can actually win the Super Bowl.
Surprise! The Eagles have the best defense in the NFL.
This wasn’t what success was supposed to look like for the Eagles. Last offseason, when the franchise decided to bring back head coach Nick Sirianni but change both coordinators, the vision was clear. They’d ask offensive coordinator Kellen Moore to build an elite offense. That’s where the organization had spent so much of its money—on guys like quarterback Jalen Hurts, wide receivers A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith, running back Saquon Barkley, and a top-shelf offensive line. The hope for new defensive coordinator Vic Fangio? Simply build a competent defense—one that could be good enough to keep the Eagles in games and let the offense win them.
Thirteen weeks into this season, we have an entirely different script. You don’t have to dig deep into the numbers to see that the defensive improvement is the biggest change between last year’s team and this year’s team. Just check out the DVOA numbers:
Barkley has been incredible and given the offense a much needed explosive element in the run game. But overall, the offense is performing at almost the exact same level it did last season. The defense? That’s another story. They have gone from one of the worst groups in the NFL to one of the best.
One mistake we often make in football analysis is assuming that a team has filled a hole just because it throws draft resources at a problem. Example: A team that couldn’t stop the run drafts a nose tackle in the first round. Problem solved! But the truth is that it rarely plays out that way. Rookies take time to adjust to the NFL, and the hit rate even in the early rounds of the draft is lower than anyone wants to acknowledge. Most of the time, even the best rookies aren’t significant contributors right away. And even the ones who play a lot of snaps have growing pains. When a rookie performs like an above-average starter immediately, that’s the exception. But in the Eagles’ case this season, the exception happened—twice! They drafted cornerback Quinyon Mitchell in the first round, and he might win Defensive Rookie of the Year. They drafted versatile defensive back Cooper DeJean in the second round, and inserting him into the lineup as the nickelback has completely transformed this unit.
Meanwhile, the Eagles signed Zack Baun to a one-year, $3.5 million deal last spring. Fangio saw a player who had been miscast in his role with the Saints, but could potentially thrive as an off-ball linebacker in his scheme. Fangio was right! Baun is second in the NFL with 65 stops—a Next Gen stat that counts any tackle that results in negative expected points added (EPA). In the past, we’ve thought about the Eagles as an organization that builds its defensive roster from front to back. The pass rush has generally been expected to help the coverage. But this year’s defense is the opposite. Granted, defensive tackle Jalen Carter has turned into a game wrecker in his second season, but overall, the Eagles are counting on the coverage to give the pass rush time to get home. The Fangio defensive philosophy is about preventing explosive plays—keep everything in front of you, rally, and tackle. Well, that only works if you’re good at rallying and tackling, and these Eagles are. They are allowing explosive pass plays on just 9.9 percent of opponents’ dropbacks—the lowest rate in the league.
After another impressive performance against the Ravens on Sunday, this looks like the NFL’s best defense. Weighted DVOA examines which units are playing the best right now, putting less emphasis on early-season performance, and the Eagles defense ranks no. 1. Their ability to keep every game close allows the offense to be patient and stick with the run. The overall formula focuses on outlasting opponents, and given that the Eagles have outscored teams by a league-high 52 points in the fourth quarter, it’s safe to say that formula is working quite well. So maybe this isn’t what the 2024 Eagles were supposed to look like, but with the defense leading the way during the current eight-game win streak, the Eagles have to be thrilled with where they’re at—positioned well as legit Super Bowl contenders.
The Bengals have wasted a great Joe Burrow season.
First of all, thanks to everyone for coming here today. It is with great sadness that I must announce the death of the Bengals’ playoff chances. Like many (OK, like some … OK, fine, there were like three of us), I too kept waiting and waiting for this team to turn it around. The bad luck (and bad defense) could only last so long. Or so I thought. On Sunday, Russell Wilson and the Steelers lit the Bengals up for 520 yards in a 44-38 Pittsburgh victory. The loss dropped the Bengals to 4-8, and as delusional as I’ve been all season about this Cincinnati team, even I can admit there’s no coming back from that.
So how did this happen? One, the defense has been an abomination. Not just kind of bad. Like so bad that no offense could make up for this level of bad. The Bengals are 29th in defensive DVOA—30th against the pass and 25th against the run. There is nothing that this group does at a competent level. They were just never able to figure it out. Defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo has gotten a lot of love from the football hipsters over the years, but since Burrow joined the team in 2020, the Bengals have produced an above-average defense (based on DVOA) just once. The other issue this season? Well, the Bengals have just been really, really unlucky. They are 1-7 in games decided by seven points or fewer—tied with the Jaguars for the worst mark in the league.
The shame here is that the Bengals are wasting a great season from Burrow. You only get so many chances with a franchise quarterback who is healthy and in his prime. Burrow is sixth in EPA per pass play and third in success rate. I looked at all of the games this season where a starting quarterback produced 0.3 EPA per pass play. Don’t let that number confuse you. It just means that they produced at roughly an 80th-percentile level statistically. There have been 68 such games. The rest of the NFL is 58-6 when their quarterback produces at that level. The Bengals? They’re 1-3! Burrow has been fantastic this season—completing 68 percent of his passes with 30 touchdowns and five interceptions. A legit MVP-caliber performance—had he only gotten a little more help from the factors that were out of his control.
The good news for Bengals fans is that this is Burrow’s age-28 season, and they’ll get to watch him for years to come. The bad news is that the rest of the roster needs a lot of work. The defense is a disaster. The offensive line could use yet another upgrade. And the Bengals are likely to get worse at wide receiver next season, assuming Tee Higgins leaves in free agency. Bottom line: This was probably the last run for the trio of Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, and Higgins. And unfortunately for the Bengals, they wasted it.
This is the worst Chiefs team that Patrick Mahomes has been a part of.
Whoa, whoa, whoa. Take it easy. I’m not saying they’re cooked. Let me explain. We all watched the Chiefs on Black Friday and saw a game that followed a familiar script: KC looking unimpressive but somehow coming away with a win against a lesser opponent. This time around, they beat Las Vegas 19-17 after the Raiders lost a fumble on a botched snap while already in field goal range in the final moments of the game. Chiefs fans celebrated another victory that moved them to 11-1. The rest of the football-watching world yelled in unison: “THEY CAN’T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH THIS!”
The Chiefs are now 9-0 in games decided by seven points or fewer. Since 2000, no team has had a better record in one-score games through 13 weeks. One more nugget: Since 2000, there have been 23 teams with at least 11 wins through the first 13 weeks of a season. Among those teams, the average point differential is plus-139. The 2024 Chiefs are at plus-54. Not only is that way lower than the average, but it’s 34 points worse than any other team in the sample! According to DVOA, the estimated number of wins for a team with the Chiefs’ profile is 7.5.
The question is: Do those fancy numbers tell us anything at all about the Chiefs’ chances to win the Super Bowl? Maybe. Statistically, this is the worst team that the Chiefs have had since Mahomes became the starter in 2018. In the previous six seasons, the Chiefs never finished worse than sixth in overall DVOA. This year, the Chiefs are 12th. They have issues at offensive tackle, wide receiver, and cornerback. Oh, and their pass rush isn’t great. So yes, this version of the Chiefs is absolutely more vulnerable than previous versions. If this team had any other quarterback, I’m not sure it would even sniff the playoffs, let alone compete for a Super Bowl.
But we’re not removing the quarterback! Which brings us to the case for still being bullish on the Chiefs. There is no column on the ESPN.com standings page for one-score wins. There are just wins and losses. And the Chiefs are 11-1, which means they’re in the driver’s seat for the top seed in the AFC. If they hold onto that spot, they’ll get a bye in the wild-card round, and the road to the Super Bowl will go through Arrowhead. The Chiefs would be favorites against any AFC opponent if they’re playing at home in the playoffs. In other words, stacking those ugly wins matters. It’s given the Chiefs time to solve their problems without impacting the difficulty of their potential playoff path.
All right, I gave you all the numbers, but how do I actually feel about this group? I don’t really believe in them. I don’t think they possess some special magic that allows them to win every close game. And I have serious questions about the team they’ve assembled around Mahomes. But I have to keep reminding myself that they’ve got time to figure things out. If Mahomes is healthy and the Chiefs have the no. 1 seed, they are going to have as good a shot as any other AFC team to get to the Super Bowl.
It’s (almost) time for Michael Penix Jr. to get a shot in Atlanta.
Please believe me when I say I’m not usually the “get the other guy in there!” guy. We fancy ourselves as much more nuanced take artists here at The Ringer. Having said that, for the Atlanta Falcons, well, it might be time to get the other guy in there. On Sunday against the Chargers, the Falcons became the only team this season to limit an opponent to 10 or fewer first downs and still lose. That’s because Kirk Cousins was a disaster. His passing was erratic, and he threw four interceptions. Cousins looked like a rookie making his first career start. The decision-making was awful, and he was the reason why they lost the game.
This wasn’t a one-game thing, either. On the season, Cousins has the third-highest turnover-worthy play percentage in the NFL, as charted by Pro Football Focus. At 36 years old and coming off of a serious injury, Cousins is a limited player. Cousins is using play-action at the second-lowest rate of any quarterback, and he’s throwing deep at the seventh-lowest rate.
Going into the season, there was a scenario where this Cousins experiment played out differently. The Falcons are in a bad division and have faced an easy schedule. If we had seen the best version of Cousins, the Falcons would be running away with the NFC South. Maybe they would have even won enough games to get the no. 1 or 2 seed in the NFC and talked themselves into making a deep playoff run. But that’s not where this team is at. So now it’s time to reassess the plan. The Falcons used the eighth pick to draft QB Michael Penix Jr. in April, so we know they have another option. Penix was an older prospect who has played in big games at the University of Washington and has plenty of experience. Theoretically, he should not be someone who is overwhelmed at the NFL level. Having said that, playing Penix would carry some risk and potentially lower the floor of a team that is still in first place in its division. Cousins has been uninspiring and appears to be trending downwards, but if we zoom out, he hasn’t been terrible. He currently ranks 14th in EPA per pass play. There’s no guarantee that Penix would perform better. But there’s a chance! Penix is unlikely to be more mistake-prone than Cousins. And there would be fewer limitations on what the Falcons could do offensively with Penix on the field.
We know what the rest of the season is about for the Falcons. They want to make the playoffs and be relevant. Atlanta goes to Minnesota in Week 14. It makes no sense to have a rookie make his first career start against a Brian Flores–coached defense. Maybe Cousins lights his old team up, and this conversation looks foolish a week from now. But if he lays another egg, it might be time for Atlanta head coach Raheem Morris to change his tune and roll the dice on Penix, and not because he is looking to the future. But because Penix might give the Falcons a better chance to win right now.
Six teams can win the Super Bowl – here’s the list.
All due respect to the Steelers and the Vikings. You’ve had great seasons—and your teams have probably benefitted from the two best coaching jobs in the NFL. You’ve overachieved. You could be a little frisky in January. But I don’t see a realistic scenario in which either of you win three straight playoff games and get to the Super Bowl, let alone win it. Any other teams with complaints about not making this list: Give me a break.
Here are the only six teams with a chance to hoist the Lombardi Trophy in February:
Detroit Lions: They are the favorites, according to FanDuel. And for good reason. The Lions have outscored opponents by 180 points. Not only is that the best mark in the NFL this season, but it’s also the second-best point differential for any team through 13 weeks in the past 10 seasons. Only the 2019 Ravens were better. The Lions have a dominant offensive line and a terrific play caller in Ben Johnson. Their defense has overachieved but could be vulnerable because of injuries. They are currently the no. 1 seed in the NFC, but the Lions have the fourth-hardest remaining schedule.
Buffalo Bills: If I had to pick one team to come out of the AFC at this very moment, it’d be the Bills. This was supposed to be a reset year, but now they look like one of the NFL’s most complete teams. Quarterback Josh Allen is playing at an elite level, their offensive line has been excellent, and they can run the ball. Like Detroit, the defense has overachieved, but unlike Detroit, Buffalo’s D is getting healthy at the right time. The Bills are currently the no. 2 seed in the AFC, but remember, they beat the Chiefs and own that tiebreaker. If they can make up one game on Kansas City down the stretch, the Bills could steal the top seed, get a first-round bye, and force teams to have to come to Buffalo.
Philadelphia Eagles: I made the case earlier in this column for their defense. Here’s the rest of their argument: The Eagles offensive line has been terrific, and in most of their games, it just feels like a matter of time before Saquon Barkley or A.J. Brown breaks free for a big play. The question is whether their inconsistent passing game (17th in DVOA) can be good enough when it needs to be. One thing the Eagles have going for them: They have the NFL’s easiest remaining schedule. Given that they’re just one game behind the Lions, the top seed is very much in play.
Kansas City Chiefs: As long as Patrick Mahomes is their quarterback, they have a chance. That sentence will hold true for roughly the next 10 years or so. But it would definitely help the Chiefs’ chances if they’re able to hold off the Bills for the no. 1 seed.
Baltimore Ravens: On one hand, the case is obvious. They are second in overall DVOA and first on offense. The Ravens’ “A” game can beat any team in the NFL, but things feel a bit unsettled right now. Their offense isn’t playing as well as it did earlier in the season. The defense has performed better but still isn’t great. And it looks like they have a Justin Tucker problem. Right now, the Ravens are the no. 6 seed, and they’re two games back of the Steelers in the loss column. Even if they come back to win the AFC North, the Ravens are looking at a scenario where they’d likely have to beat the Chiefs and the Bills on the road to get to the Super Bowl. Not impossible, but as far as opposing quarterbacks go, that’s about as tough as it gets.
Green Bay Packers: It feels like they still have another level they can reach, and the pieces are in place for the Packers to go on a run. They have a top-five offense, an excellent play caller in Matt LaFleur, and a tremendous run game. We all saw Jordan Love catch fire late last season, and that could still be coming in the final five weeks. I still have questions about their defense and suspect we’ll learn a lot Thursday night when they travel to Detroit. The Packers are likely looking at a wild-card spot, which would mean they’d have to potentially win three road games, including games in Detroit and Philadelphia, to reach the Super Bowl.
Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens in the AFC. Lions, Eagles, and Packers in the NFC. That’s how I see it at this moment in time. And if I’m proven wrong, we’ll erase this column from the internet and pretend it never happened.
