Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. This week, the Chiefs’ ridiculous luck continued, the Giants and Raiders won by losing, and Sam Darnold was dealing. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Winners: Chiefs magic
All right, I give up. The Chiefs are a team that defies logical analysis. All of the numbers suggest that this team is closer to mediocre than elite, and that it’s just a matter of time before this incredibly flimsy house of cards comes crashing down. Every week, we walk away saying “they can’t keep getting away with this,” only for Kansas City to get away with it again.
This week’s win felt like a cruel joke by the football gods. For a brief sliver of time—I’m talking fractions of a second—it appeared the Chiefs would lose like many of their opponents have this season, when Matthew Wright’s 31-yard, game-winning field goal attempt banked off the left upright. But then the refs raised their arms, Mike Tirico belted out “a doink for the division,” and the realization that it happened again set in. It doinked, yes, but it doinked through the uprights.
The Chiefs beat the Chargers 19-17 on that kick and wrapped up another AFC West title with four weeks to spare. At 12-1 and two games clear of Buffalo in the race for home-field advantage, Kansas City is in a good spot to make a return trip to the Super Bowl. At least on paper.
It’s hard to come away from this game feeling any better about this Chiefs team despite the win's significance in the standings. The passing game still looks incapable of generating an explosive gain, Patrick Mahomes has been under siege behind an offensive line that’s weak at the tackle spots, even after making a change at left tackle, and the run game averaged just 3.8 yards per carry against Los Angeles and now ranks 26th rushing average on the season. The Chiefs defense did well to hold the Chargers to 17 points, but the struggling secondary allowed Justin Herbert to pick it apart by throwing to Stone Smartt and Josh Palmer.
The defending champs have been unsustainably lucky in close games, as we see from their ridiculous point differential (plus-56). There are concerning points of weakness on both sides of the ball. If this were any other team with any other quarterback, we’d be writing them off as frauds. But it’s the Chiefs and Mahomes, and we all know better.
Winner: Sam Darnold
Sunday could not have gone better for Sam Darnold. The Vikings’ 27-year-old QB threw for five touchdowns against the Falcons in the best performance of his career, and he got to watch as Kirk Cousins, his predecessor in Minnesota—the guy he’s been compared to all season—threw away the game. Cousins also probably threw away whatever remaining goodwill he had with the Falcons fan base. The Vikings won the game 42-21 and are certainly not feeling any remorse after cutting ties with Cousins during the offseason.
Cousins, frankly, stunk it up, but Darnold was the story in Minnesota on Sunday. He threw for 347 yards on 28 attempts to go with those five touchdowns. He didn’t have a single play that was considered turnover-worthy, per Pro Football Focus. It’s the first time that’s happened for him since Week 8—and just the third time all season. But he wasn’t playing scared. His 10.4-yard average depth of target was the third-highest of the week. He attempted 13 passes of at least 10 air yards and completed 10 of them for 256 yards and four touchdowns. His Next Gen Stats passing map from the game looks like a space battle from a Star Wars movie.
With Darnold dealing, Vikings coach Kevin O’Connell could empty his play-calling bag. Darnold was able to gash the Falcons defense with play-action (11.4 yards per play) or without it (9.2 yards per play), and he hardly missed a throw on quick-game dropbacks, completing 81 percent of his passes of 10 air yards or fewer. And his best play of the game came out of structure: evading a quick pressure, narrowly avoiding what would have been his fifth sack of the day, and finding an open Justin Jefferson 40 yards downfield.
Darnold also hooked up with Jordan Addison on several big throws, including three touchdowns, and the pair would’ve had another if not for a 47-yard pass interference penalty on the Falcons. Jefferson went for 132 yards and a pair of touchdowns, ending a nearly two-month end-zone drought for him. Running back Aaron Jones, who was coming off a brutal game against the Cardinals, rushed for 73 yards and a score on 13 carries. Even blocking tight end Josh Oliver had a 26-yard catch-and-run. Everyone ate on Sunday.
It’s days like this when you can talk yourself into the Vikings as a legit Super Bowl contender—and Darnold as a quarterback who can lead them there. But it’s not about the highs with Darnold. We’ve seen Darnold play well (albeit not quite this well) at times this season. We’ve also seen the bad side of Darnold, and it’s hard to shake the feeling that one of those games is right around the corner. It’s not an unfamiliar feeling for Vikings fans, who just got off the Kirk-coaster after six stomach-churning seasons. On Sunday, it must have felt good being on the other side of it.
Loser: Kirk Cousins
For a second straight week, Raheem Morris spent his postgame presser fielding questions about his quarterback’s grip on the starting job, but the Falcons head coach remains resolute: Cousins is his starter.
“Everything is always discussed when you go watch the tape and do all those types of things, but like, Kirk Cousins is our quarterback,” Morris said after Atlanta’s fourth consecutive loss. “We’ll have the ability to go watch this tape just like we do every week. Kirk played significantly better than he did the week before.”
As sad as it is, Cousins did play significantly better compared to his four-interception performance in a 17-13 loss to the Chargers a week ago. He threw only two interceptions this week and didn’t fumble once! That’s called progress, folks. After looking timid and turnover-prone against Los Angeles, Cousins was just one of those things against Minnesota. At least early on. Cousins hit six passes over 10 air yards in the first half alone. But the Vikings laid some big hits on Cousins in the second quarter, he threw a bad interception from a clean pocket, and the skittish version of the veteran quarterback seemed to return after that.
The game was tied at 21 going into the fourth quarter but it already felt over. O’Connell and Darnold had figured out the Falcons secondary, and Atlanta’s pass rush—which sacked Darnold three times in the first half—got him down just once after halftime. Cousins couldn’t lead the Falcons to any points in the fourth and the Vikings doubled them up in the final frame.
Cousins hasn’t thrown a touchdown in a month. He’s thrown eight interceptions in his past four games. If he weren’t in the first year of a $180 million contract, he probably would have already been benched. Meanwhile, no. 8 pick Michael Penix Jr. is missing out on valuable development time on the sideline. Cousins has a $65 million dead cap charge preventing Atlanta from cutting bait after just one season, so he’ll likely be the team’s starting quarterback in Week 1 next season.
Last week, Morris cited the team’s standing in the playoff race as a reason for sticking with Cousins. But this latest loss dropped the Falcons out of first place in the NFC South behind the Buccaneers. If this slide continues, I wonder if we might see Cousins develop some mysterious Achilles soreness and shut it down so the rookie can show what he’s got. That could be the best course of action for all parties.
Winner: Matthew Stafford (and Josh Allen)
If I had a flower bouquet, I’d have thrown it on stage after the performance Stafford and the Rams offense put on in a dazzling 44-42 upset win over the Bills. The 36-year-old Rams quarterback may not have the legs to keep up with today’s top passers, but Sunday’s game proved his arm is still good enough to hang with any of them. In the win over Buffalo, he matched a scorching-hot Josh Allen throw-for-throw. Stafford pushed the ball downfield with accuracy—both over the middle and outside the numbers. He made no-look passes and throws on the move. Stafford even had Fox broadcaster Tom Brady in awe of his command of the Rams offense before the snap; some of Stafford’s throws left the greatest quarterback of all time giggling like a little kid.
Which dime should we start with? How about this perfect throw to Puka Nacua near the sideline?
He also threw a no-looker to Nacua down the other sideline to move the chains.
Stafford connected with Cooper Kupp for a tight-window touchdown up the seam.
And he hit Kupp on another seam ball earlier in the third quarter.
The game-clinching touchdown pass to Nacua didn’t require much zip, but Stafford sniffed out a Buffalo blitz before the snap and checked into the tunnel screen.
The Rams receiving corps also did its thing. Nacua hauled in 12 passes for 162 yards and a touchdown and added a rushing score on an end-around. Kupp caught five balls for 92 yards and a touchdown. On every third down, it felt like one of those two was open for their quarterback.
Sean McVay also had it rolling. The numbers for the Los Angeles run game aren’t overly impressive—137 yards on 42 carries—but the Rams head coach used that part of the offense brilliantly to set up openings in the Buffalo secondary. This was a vintage performance for the McVay offense, complete with the stretch running plays, bootleg passes off of play-action, and a productive spread passing game that had been absent this season due to L.A.’s offensive line issues.
This is the healthiest the Rams offense has been since their Super Bowl run three years ago. Now they are 7-6 and just one game back from a fading Washington team for the final spot in the NFC playoffs. Yes, the defense just got steamrolled by Allen and the Bills, but that unit has mostly played well this season thanks to a surprisingly effective pass rush. I’m not ready to call the Rams a contender, but when Stafford, Nacua, Kupp, and McVay have it going like they did on Sunday, at least on offense, they look an awful lot like that championship Rams team.
And yet, even a near-perfect offense nearly wasn’t enough to overcome Allen’s one-man superhero act. The “alien,” as McVay called the Bills star after the game, became the first player to throw for three touchdowns and run for another three scores in a single game, and he finished 22-of-37 passing for 342 yards. He ran for another 82 yards to lift an otherwise nonexistent Buffalo rushing game. It doesn’t matter which version of Allen you prefer—the passer or the bulldozing runner—he gave us everything on Sunday. There were the downfield dimes that couldn’t have been placed any better. And he made almost cartoonish scrambles to pull the Bills offense out of precarious situations.
It’s rare for a quarterback to lose a game and still improve his MVP case, but Allen may have pulled it off this week. His 41 dropbacks generated 23.3 expected points added against the Rams, per TruMedia. That’s the eighth-best single-game performance of the season. He averaged 10.2 yards per dropback. That’s a first down every time you call a pass! He finished with a QBR of 90.3. ESPN’s QB metric is based on a 100-point scale, and it’s meant to represent how often a QB can expect to win a game based on his production. Unfortunately for Allen, Stafford put up a 97.6 QBR to steal the win.
Loser: Sean McDermott
When your quarterback scores six touchdowns and your team still manages to lose, somebody has to take the blame. Bills fans have decided to pin this one on McDermott after Allen’s wasted master class. A perusal of Bills Twitter seems to indicate the fan base is upset with McDermott largely for accepting a holding call on the Rams offense after a failed attempt at third-down conversion when the Bills trailed by three midway through the fourth quarter. The penalty pushed Los Angeles out of field goal range and made it third-and-16 instead of fourth-and-6. After picking up 11 yards on the ensuing play, McVay kept his offense on the field for fourth-and-5, and the Rams converted. A few plays later, Nacua scored to stretch the lead to two possessions. Game over.
In hindsight, it’s easy to blame McDermott for giving the Rams a second chance to seal the game. But if McVay were willing to go for it on fourth-and-5, he probably would have gone for it on fourth-and-7, too. I take more issue with the defensive play-call on that third-and-long. The Bills played a soft zone and surrendered the underneath areas. If the goal was to keep L.A. out of field goal range, playing tighter coverage underneath would have been the better strategy. Buffalo essentially spotted the Rams those 11 yards to set up the all-important fourth-down conversion.
The performance of McDermott’s defense was far more concerning than any of his game management decisions, but it’s hard to fault any defensive coach when the opponent’s quarterback and receiving corps had it going like the Rams did on Sunday. Sometimes you get got by a top quarterback, and that’s what happened to Buffalo's defense. Rewatch those Stafford clips from the last section—it’s not like the Bills didn’t make it hard on Stafford and his receivers.
Winner: Philly Sports Misery
The Eagles have won nine games in a row after escaping with a 22-16 home win against the Panthers. But you wouldn’t know the Eagles won from listening to A.J. Brown in the postgame locker room.
That sounds like a man who has caught only nine passes for 109 yards combined over the last two games. To be fair, this isn’t the case of a diva receiver begging for more targets. The Eagles won this game despite an unproductive passing offense, which has become a recurring theme during this winning streak. Against Carolina, quarterback Jalen Hurts threw for just 108 yards on 21 attempts. He lost 25 yards on four sacks, giving him 83 net passing yards on the day. Hurts hasn’t thrown for more than 236 yards in a game since October 13. The Eagles have done just fine riding the Saquon Barkley–led run game and an elite defense, but there’s going to come a time in the playoffs when Philadelphia will need to lean on its $250 million quarterback (and the rest of its very expensive passing game), and it’s unclear how they’ll fare when that happens.
Hurts’s efficiency numbers still look … fine. He ranks 12th in both EPA and yards per dropback. Even against the Panthers, he finished with a passer rating of 110.8. But it doesn’t quite pass the eye test. Against Carolina, Hurts was indecisive in the pocket, he turned down open receivers downfield, and he held on to the football far too long.
We’ve seen Hurts play at a high level for short spurts during the win streak, so we know the ceiling for the Eagles’ passing game is higher than we saw on Sunday. But it’s also been over a year since we’ve seen Hurts put together long stretches of good play. Winning covers up a lot and Philadelphia has an easy schedule down the stretch, so this streak could continue, but the Eagles’ feckless passing game is becoming a concern.
Loser: Kyler Murray
Uh-oh. It’s happening again. Kyler Murray’s annual second-half dip is upon us, and he doesn’t have Kliff Kingsbury to blame this time. Murray, who was creeping into the MVP conversation just a month ago, has thrown five interceptions in a three-game losing streak that has the Cardinals on the outside looking in at the NFC playoff picture. He threw two picks in Arizona’s ugly 30-18 loss to the Seahawks on Sunday—its second loss to Seattle in three weeks, which dropped Arizona into a tie with the 49ers at the bottom of the division.
A deep dive into Murray’s production isn’t required to find the root of his issues. It’s been pressure. Over the last three losses, Murray averaged just 1.5 yards per dropback and minus-0.96 EPA per play when pressured, per TruMedia. Before this stretch, he was averaging 5.6 yards and 0.16 EPA per dropback under pressure.
Play under pressure is highly volatile, so it’s not a surprise that Murray’s play has fallen off. And there’s a chance he’ll bounce back against pressure as soon as next week. But this stretch shows why it’s been hard to fully buy into the Kyler experience in Arizona. We’re now six seasons and two contracts into his career, and we have yet to see him put together a full season of strong play.
Of course, Murray wasn’t the only member of the Cardinals who put in a bad shift against Seattle. Jonathan Gannon’s defense was cut up, both through the air and on the ground, against a Seattle offense that came limping into this game. And a week after Gannon’s conservatism cost Arizona a key win, the second-year coach decided to kick a field goal on fourth-and-2 with his team trailing by two scores in the fourth quarter—a decision the fourth-down bots disagreed with—and was immediately repaid with a shanked kick. It’s been a rough three weeks for the two most prominent figures in the Cardinals organization.
The playoffs are looking like a long shot in Arizona. Based on Murray’s late-season track record—and Gannon’s late-game track record—it’s difficult to see the Cardinals overcoming a two-game deficit in the NFC West standings now.
Losers (by Design): The Giants and Raiders
Against all odds, the Jaguars won a football game on Sunday and pulled themselves out of the NFL’s basement, leaving behind the Giants and Raiders to duke it out for the no. 1 pick. In a season littered with garbage football, the stench from these once-proud franchises has stood out from the rest. Both of them ratcheted up this cold war of crappiness on Sunday. The Raiders did their part by getting smoked by the Buccaneers while losing quarterback Aidan O’Connell to a knee injury that “doesn’t look good,” according to his coach, Antonio Pierce. O’Connell had been filling in for Gardner Minshew, who went on season-ending IR this past week. That means it’s the Desmond Ridder show for the rest of the season. If Ridder gets hurt, a certain minority owner might have to come out of retirement.
And somehow, what’s going on in Las Vegas isn’t nearly as sad as the story in the Meadowlands, where a plane pulling a banner that read "Mr. Mara enough—plz fix this dumpster fire" flew over MetLife Stadium before Sunday’s 14-11 loss to the Saints.
Giants fans were also seen wearing paper bags on their heads—and one of them asked for owner John Mara to sell the team. This happened while losing to a team that also had its fans wearing paper bags this season.
After the game, rookie wide receiver Malik Nabers, who caught five passes for 79 yards in the loss, was asked about the banner. Though nobody accused the rookie receiver of paying for the banner, Nabers got suspiciously, and hilariously, defensive about it.
The receiver doth protest too much, methinks!
OK, so Nabers probably didn’t fund the stunt, but he may soon appreciate this dumpster fire if it lands New York the first pick in the draft—and presumably a new quarterback to throw him passes. But even at this point in the football season, it’s unclear who that quarterback would be if the Giants or Raiders were at the top of the draft board. Colorado’s Shedeur Sanders is the favorite to go first, but he’s not a slam-dunk prospect who would go in the top 10 in most draft classes. Miami’s Cam Ward, Alabama’s Jalen Milroe, and Penn State’s Drew Allar have intriguing skill sets but glaring flaws. The Raiders and Giants can’t even tank correctly.
