Every week this NFL season, we will break down the highs and lows—and everything in between—from the most recent slate of pro football. This week, the Bills offense showed out in a potential Super Bowl preview, the race for the no. 1 seed in the NFC got tighter, the Colts made mind-boggling mistakes, and there are new injury concerns for Patrick Mahomes and Geno Smith. Welcome to Winners and Losers.
Winner: Joe Brady
I hope Buffalo doesn’t get too attached to offensive coordinator Joe Brady. At this rate, he won’t be around on its staff for much longer. Brady had likely already been rapidly scaling the list of head coaching candidates for next offseason before putting on a master class in play calling in a 48-42 win over the Lions in Detroit. After that performance, his counterpart in the game, Ben Johnson, may be the only candidate ahead of him on the short list of potential hires.
To be fair, calling plays for Josh Allen, who averaged 10.6 yards per attempt and accounted for four touchdowns on Sunday, does make Brady’s job far easier. The Bills quarterback, who padded his lead in the MVP race with another comprehensive display of smart quarterbacking and a dash of out-of-structure chaos, made a handful of plays against Detroit that had little to do with Brady’s scheming. Not every offensive coordinator in the NFL can dial up the “just buy time and throw it 50 yards on a line” play whenever they want.
You don’t need the second coming of Bill Walsh to scheme up touchdowns when your quarterback can throw a chest pass in the red zone (even if this play didn’t count).
But Brady also made Allen’s job far easier on Sunday. The run game, which featured Allen with a number of option concepts, kept Buffalo ahead of the chains all afternoon. And when the Bills fell into obvious passing situations, Brady was able to exploit Detroit’s strong preference for playing man coverage. This fourth-and-2 conversion to Ty Johnson may have been the best illustration of Brady’s play calling prowess. Johnson motions out of the backfield to give Allen a man-zone tell. Motioning Johnson late prevented Detroit from making a coverage check to handle a possible pick play, which is exactly what Brady must have had in mind.
Tight end Dalton Kincaid set the pick within a yard of the line of scrimmage, which means any contact is legal, and linebacker Ezekiel Turner, who’s playing only because of injuries to other linebackers, had little chance of keeping up with the Bills running back. The same could be said for linebacker Kwon Alexander, another injury replacement on Detroit’s defense, on this cheeky play design that created another mismatch against a linebacker in man coverage:
The Lions defense plays man coverage more than just about any other defense in the league. If you’re playing Detroit, you better have a good plan for beating its sticky coverage. Brady did, and getting Johnson matched up with Detroit’s backup linebackers was the tactic he used most often. Johnson led Buffalo with 114 yards on five receptions. Allen finished the game 14-of-18 for 202 yards and two touchdowns against man coverage, per Next Gen Stats. He averaged 11.2 yards per attempt and finished with a passer rating of 150.5.
This was another good performance for Brady and Allen in a season full of them. It’s been over two months since a defense held the Bills under 30 points. They’ve scored at least 35 in each of their past three games. It looked for a while there like Detroit would run away with the title of the league’s best offense, but after Sunday’s showing, Buffalo may have a better argument.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
The Lions didn’t just lose the game to Buffalo; they also gave up ground in the race for home-field advantage after the Eagles manhandled the Steelers in a cross-state battle to climb to 12-2. A win over the Bears on Monday night would push the Vikings into a three-way tie at the top of the conference standings and set up a potential NFC North title game between Minnesota and Detroit in Week 18. Setting back the Lions even further, the defense may have lost two more starters after defensive tackle Alim McNeill left the game with a knee injury and cornerback Carlton Davis III left with a jaw injury. Reserve cornerback Khalil Dorsey also was carted off the field and taken to a hospital with an ankle injury. Head coach Dan Campbell said after the game that he fears all three are season-ending injuries. Detroit lost its best defensive player, edge rusher Aidan Hutchinson, two months ago, and will now have to cope without its best interior run defender in McNeill and cover corner in Davis. The game against Buffalo was one of the most anticipated regular-season contests in the franchise's history, and things could not have gone much worse.
The opposite was true for an Eagles team coming off a week of dysfunction. Jalen Hurts and A.J. Brown seem to have rekindled their friendship after last week’s awkwardness. Brown complained about the passing game after Philadelphia’s close win over Carolina last Sunday, and Hurts wasn’t going to make the same mistake again. Hurts targeted his star wideout four times in the first quarter alone and 11 times over the full game. And Brown made those opportunities count, catching eight passes for 110 yards and a touchdown. After the two connected for the game’s first touchdown, Hurts and Brown did a solid rendition of the Kid ‘n Play dance.
“That was our moment to tell everyone to shut up,” Brown said of the celebration. (It’s unclear if Eagles defensive end Brandon Graham, who threw fuel on the Brown-Hurts fire by saying the two were no longer friends, is included in “everyone.”)
But this win went beyond the relationship between Hurts and Brown—and the race for home-field advantage. This was an identity-defining win for the Eagles against one of the toughest teams in football. The Steelers defense doesn’t get bullied very often, but I’m struggling to find a better word for what the Eagles did to Pittsburgh to close out the game. The Steelers had only two possessions in the second half thanks to the Eagles going on a 21-play, 88-yard drive over the final 10:29 of the game.
Pittsburgh head coach Mike Tomlin must have felt a jealous rage as he watched Philadelphia put the game away in such a manner. There have been some questions about the viability of the Eagles’ run-first offense and how it would fare against a top defense like Pittsburgh’s, their first opponent with a defense that ranks in the top 10 in DVOA. But the Eagles straight-up dominated the line of scrimmage against a team that typically batters opponents in the trenches. If Philly’s game works against that defense, it should work against any defense they’ll face in the playoffs.
The banged-up Lions are still clinging to first place in the NFC, but the Eagles are in the driver’s seat in this race. A game on the road at Washington could prove difficult, but Philadelphia gets the Cowboys and Giants to close out the season. Meanwhile, Detroit will go on the road for its next two, which includes a trip to San Francisco for an NFC title game rematch, before closing things out with that all-important game against Minnesota. The Vikings will also have a tough road to navigate between now and the playoffs, with the Seahawks, Packers, and Lions closing out their regular-season schedule.
Loser: Patrick Mahomes’s Health
The Chiefs finally won a game by more than one score thanks to Jameis Winston’s turnover-fest in Cleveland, but we may look back on Sunday as a major setback in Kansas City’s quest to three-peat, with Patrick Mahomes leaving the game after suffering a high-ankle sprain.
Mahomes has played through ankle injuries before, but this one comes at an inopportune time for the Chiefs, who have three of the NFL’s best pass rushes left on the schedule as they try to clinch home-field advantage. Kansas City gets Houston on Saturday before road games against the Steelers on Christmas Day and the Broncos in Week 18.
Judging by the offensive line’s performance against the Browns, it will be problematic for Kansas City if Mahomes’s mobility is limited. Cleveland pressured Mahomes on 33 percent of his dropbacks, and the Chiefs quarterback finished with a negative expected points added average for the third consecutive week. Only six quarterbacks have been pressured more often than Mahomes over the last three weeks, and he ranks 24th in EPA per dropback and 20th in success rate over that time. This passing game was already littered with red flags before Mahomes sprained his ankle. Those flags are now glowing red banners.
Kansas City needs just two wins to lock up the first-round bye, but two losses would open the back door for Buffalo, which owns the tiebreaker after beating the Chiefs last month. And this is a team that has been grinding out wins against the hapless Panthers and Raiders. Even the 21-7 win over a Browns team that turned it over SIX times wasn’t the romp the final score suggests. Mahomes has played (well) through ankle sprains in the past—including his masterful performance in the Super Bowl win over the Eagles in 2023—but this Chiefs offense has never relied on his mobility and out-of-structure playmaking to this extent. If any quarterback can carry an offense this flawed on a bum ankle, it’s Mahomes. But if he can’t, Kansas City will be back on the road in January for a second year in a row.
Winner: Lamar Jackson
The MVP award is Allen’s to lose at this point, but Lamar Jackson is going to make him work for it. The NFL’s leader in dropback EPA, an advanced stat that can be one of the best predictors of the award, was back at it again in Baltimore’s 35-14 win over the Giants. Jackson threw for five touchdowns while completing 21-of-25 passes for 290 yards. It was the fifth game in Jackson’s career where he’s thrown at least five touchdown passes with fewer than five incompletions. Per CBS Sports researcher Doug Clawson, no other quarterback has more than three such games. Jackson is only 27.
Jackson did most of the damage with his arm on Sunday, but he also got back to his running ways after vowing to do so two weeks ago. Jackson said his mom got on him for not running more in Baltimore’s loss to Philadelphia in Week 13, and he responded against the Giants with 65 rushing yards on six carries. That brings Jackson’s season total to 743 rushing yards, which leads all other quarterbacks in the league by nearly triple-digits. He also leads the NFL in yards per dropback and total dropback EPA. He’s fifth in success rate, and seventh in sack rate (despite an above-average pressure rate, and only Justin Herbert has a lower interception rate, per TruMedia). Even if it isn’t rewarded with an MVP trophy, this is one of the greatest quarterback seasons ever.
Baltimore’s win, combined with Pittsburgh’s loss, sets up a battle for first place in the AFC North next Saturday. The first matchup against the Steelers was easily Jackson’s worst game of the season. The Steelers held him to -0.21 EPA per dropback and a 34.3-percent success rate. Those are both season lows for the reigning MVP, and that game resembles the type of performance we’ve seen from Jackson in his postseason exits. Saturday isn’t a win-or-go-home scenario, but it will be a nice test for Baltimore’s passing game ahead of the playoffs. If Pittsburgh can’t slow down Jackson, there may not be a defense in the AFC that can.
Loser: The Bozo Colts
Hello, this is Lindsay Jones, reporting live from Denver, where I watched the Broncos beat the Colts 31-13 in what was, arguably, the dumbest game of the day. (I say arguably because Bengals-Titans was a game that also existed.) With the win, the Broncos secured their first winning record since 2016 and significantly bolstered their chances of making the playoffs for the first time since the 2015 season. The Colts, meanwhile, now have only a slim chance of making the postseason, and they have only themselves to blame.
Let’s count down the four most bonkers things the Colts did in Sunday’s game:
4. The Colts defense forced the Broncos to settle for a field goal attempt with 6:11 remaining in the fourth quarter. But Indianapolis cornerback Chris Lammons was flagged for lining up offside. The Broncos chose to accept the 5-yard penalty, wipe Wil Lutz’s 47-yard kick off the board, and send the offense back onto the field. Three plays later, Denver quarterback Bo Nix threw a 20-yard touchdown pass to Courtland Sutton to extend the Broncos’ lead to 31-13.
3. Anthony Richardson’s final stat line was, well, not great: 17-for-38 passing, for 172 yards, with two interceptions and no touchdowns. He had the lowest passer rating and completion percentage of all starting quarterbacks in Week 15. He was effective as a runner against Denver, particularly early in the game; he rushed seven times for 46 yards, including a 23-yard touchdown run in the first quarter. But let’s look closer at that box score: Way down there at the bottom of the receiving leaders is Richardson, with one catch, for negative-1 yard. It’s not a typo. Richardson really did throw a pass that he caught for negative-1 yard. How does that happen, you ask?
The Colts were backed up deep in their own territory in the second quarter, and Richardson, foolishly, you might argue, attempted a pass from inside his own end zone. The ball hit a Denver defensive lineman right in the hands and ricocheted immediately back to Richardson, who tucked it into his arms and started running. He made it just 3 yards out of the end zone when he was tackled a yard behind the line of scrimmage.
Here’s how it was officially recorded in the NFL’s scoring software:
This season has taught us that, yes, quarterbacks can catch their own passes. But only Josh Allen can make it work.
2. The Colts were trailing 17-13 early in the fourth quarter when Shane Steichen made the inexplicable decision to dial up a trick play for Richardson and rookie receiver Adonai Mitchell. After catching the shotgun snap, Richardson tossed a backward pass to Mitchell, who had been lined up as the outside receiver on the right side of the formation. Mitchell took a beat to control the ball in his hands and set his feet and then spun to throw the ball back to Richardson. Denver linebacker Nik Bonitto was not fooled by the double pass. He came charging toward Richardson, jumped in front of the lateral, snagged the ball out of the air, and returned it 50 yards for the touchdown that broke the game open.
After the game, Steichen defended the decision by saying they had practiced it throughout the week, and he was looking forward to calling it against Denver. Which makes me wonder: If that was the trick play that they liked, what were the ones they didn’t?
1. Jonathan Taylor might never live this down. The Colts running back broke free for what initially looked to be a 41-yard run that would have given Indianapolis a 13-point lead early in the third quarter. But after a lengthy replay review, officials overturned the score, determining that Taylor dropped the ball out of his right hand just before he crossed the goal line. The ball had landed in the end zone and rolled out of bounds while Taylor celebrated, so the play was ruled a touchback.
Given how poorly Bo Nix and the Broncos offense had been playing to that point, a 13-point lead might have been enough for Indianapolis. The Colts wouldn’t get close to the end zone again.
Steven thought about calling me a loser for watching all of this nonsense. But this was a 10/10 entertaining performance. No notes. I win. Now, back to Steven.
Loser: Will Levis
Will Levis finally found the limit of Brian Callahan’s patience by losing a fumble and tossing three interceptions over the first 40 minutes of Tennessee’s 37-27 loss to the Bengals. Throwing picks on back-to-back dropbacks before tossing a pick-six the following quarter was finally enough for Callahan to pull the NFL’s most meme-worthy turnover machine for Mason Rudolph.
Callahan wasn’t ready to commit to a quarterback for next week following this game, but it doesn’t sound good for Levis’s job security.
"Look, I think we’ll get through today. I’m not going to make any definitive statements one way or the other," Callahan said. "We just have to make sure we can correct what we saw on tape and what was a tough day for him. Sometimes these things happen. You have a rough day and you have to get sat down. I’m not going to make any statements about it and we have to see where we can get better in the game and where we can improve."
That tape review isn’t going to be pretty after Levis committed a variety of mistakes en route to the four-turnover game. His first came on a fumble after an ill-advised decision on an option run concept. The Bengals were all over it.
But I’d pin his first interception on the play design rather than the quarterback’s decision-making. Levis wants Tyler Boyd on an out-breaking route from the slot against man coverage, but Nick Westbrook-Ikhine’s route pulls Cam Taylor-Britt into the throwing window.
On the ensuing dropback, Levis sailed a pass high and it was picked off.
And the third and final interception came on a brutal read by Levis.
This play is designed for Levis to read the deep safety, Geno Stone. When Stone bites down on the crossing route, Levis should be aiming for the deep post route. Instead, he throws the crosser directly to Stone breaking on the route.
Levis is a talented passer with thirst-trap throws all over his film. It’s easy to see how a team can talk itself into a young quarterback with a golden arm. But Levis’s problematic decision-making might be too strong to overcome. He’s committed at least one turnover-worthy play in every game this season. He’s responsible for some of the worst interceptions we’ve seen in the NFL this season. And he’s making the same mental errors he made last season as a rookie—which are similar to the mistakes he was making at Kentucky.
There is plenty of good in Levis’s play, but the bad far outweighs it. Even if the first-year Titans coach goes back to Levis next week, it feels like only a matter of time before he’s back on the bench and this franchise is back in the market for a new quarterback.
Loser: Tua Tagovailoa
Tagovailoa has had some tough Sundays during his NFL career, but this game has to go down as one of his worst losses. Tagovailoa committed a career-high four turnovers in a 20-12 defeat that all but knocked Miami out of playoff contention. The Dolphins quarterback also blamed his ball placement for the scary hit on receiver Grant DuBose, who was taken to the hospital with a head injury. Tagovailoa himself narrowly avoided a scary hit after diving headfirst into a hit on a play that was negated by a holding penalty.
On top of all of that, the Dolphins must grapple with the fact that Tagovailoa shit the bed in another big game, which only reinforces a narrative he’s been fighting all season after signing a four-year, $212 million deal in July. This was the sixth-worst game of Tagovailoa’s career by EPA. The two worst games—a 34-3 loss to Tennessee in 2021 and a 56-26 loss to Buffalo in 2020—also came in must-win situations late in the season. At this point, we should probably stop using the word “narrative” when discussing this issue. It’s not a narrative; it’s a pattern.
But as easy as it would be to pile on Tagovailoa, his rough outing had as much to do with Houston’s defensive effort as it did with his shortcomings as a quarterback. The Texans pass rush dominated, capitalizing on Miami’s two starting offensive tackles being out with injuries, and forced the first of Tagovailoa’s four-pack of turnovers to set up the game’s opening touchdown.
Houston head coach DeMeco Ryans’s scheming tricked Tagovailoa into his first interception. Ryans threw a slick coverage disguise that positioned safety Calen Bullock directly in the window of the backside dig route Tagovailoa routinely hits. The quarterback fell right into the trap.
Tagovailoa gifted Houston with his second pick, which was a poor throw and an even worse decision, but the interception that sealed Miami’s fate came on a spectacular play by Derek Stingley Jr. late in the fourth quarter.
Tagovailoa praised Ryans after the game for Houston’s defensive performance. He pointed to the coverage disguises and the Texans shutting down the short passing game as the main factors in the loss, and it’s hard to disagree with that assessment. Many offenses and quarterbacks would’ve had issues against Ryans’s defense on Sunday. Tagovailoa just happened to draw the short straw in Week 15.
Loser: Seattle Seahawks
In the NFL, the vibes can change in an instant. Heading into Sunday night, the Seahawks were one of the league’s hottest teams, having won four in a row to take over first place in the competitive NFC West. But after a 30-13 beatdown at the hands of the Packers and a knee injury that knocked Geno Smith out of the game in the third quarter, Seattle’s road to the playoffs looks much more precarious than it did a week ago. The loss pushed the Seahawks out of first place in the division and into second behind the Rams, who are also 8-6 but own a head-to-head tiebreaker. And with the Vikings next up on the schedule, reclaiming the top spot will be difficult before the Seahawks get their rematch with the Rams in Los Angeles on the final weekend of the regular season.
Seattle coach Mike Macdonald on Sunday night said Smith’s knee had no structural damage but he was unsure whether his quarterback would miss any time. The fate of this Seahawks’ season could rest on the health of Smith’s knee. Seattle got its first look at the offense with a different quarterback, and it wasn’t a pretty sight. Sam Howell, who replaced Smith in the third quarter, averaged 0.26 yards per dropback. That’s 9.4 inches per play. He had a dropback success rate of just 10.5 percent. That’s the worst single-game performance of the season for a quarterback who attempted at least 10 passes, per TruMedia.
Smith has one year left on the three-year deal he signed in 2023. He’ll carry a $38.5 million cap into next season if the Seahawks leave his current contract untouched, and they could save $25 million by cutting or trading the 34-year-old. But it feels highly unlikely that Seattle would choose to move on after watching the season Smith has had while playing behind a bad offensive line and getting almost no support from the run game. First-year offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb isn’t helping out much either. Seattle is running more pure dropback passing plays than any offense. Smith ranks 32nd in play-action rate and 22nd in EPA generated on screen passes, per TruMedia. Smith's season-long numbers have been mediocre, but most starting quarterbacks would have wilted under the playmaking pressure he’s faced all season.
Even on Sunday, Smith’s value to the team was clear—but its path to the playoffs no longer is.
