What to Watch in Each First-Round Game of the College Football Playoff
There’s plenty at stake in the first four games of the inaugural 12-team playoff. Here’s what you need to know.
The first round of the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff is here. Several of the biggest brands in the sport will be taking the field in four games starting Friday night, and, for the first time, we’ll get to see the postseason action in front of home crowds. There’s plenty at stake for each of these eight teams looking to move on to the next round. We’ve laid out the biggest factor in each game, how we expect things to play out, and which teams should be moving on to the quarterfinals.
Friday, 8 p.m. EST: No. 10 Indiana at No. 7 Notre Dame (-7.5)
What to watch: Can two unproven offenses find a rhythm against good defenses?
I find the outcome of this game to be the hardest to predict of the first round because of each team’s offensive résumé against top competition. In Notre Dame’s case, head coach Marcus Freeman and his staff proved they can be great at game-planning in the way they shut down Texas A&M, but that game may as well have been two seasons ago. Since that season-opening win, the next-best win for the Irish was over Louisville in late September. But that wasn’t a great game for quarterback Riley Leonard, and Notre Dame relied on a strong day from the defense, with three forced turnovers and a last-second defensive stand, to get the win.
As for the Hoosiers, they faced two tough tests in consecutive weeks against Michigan and Ohio State last month, and their offense went off of a cliff in both contests. Quarterback Kurtis Rourke is an interesting future pro prospect because of his accuracy and football IQ, but we’ve seen that the better defenses Indiana has faced this year have been able to make him uncomfortable in the pocket, which can bring this offense to a screeching halt.
Both of these teams lack top-end talent at receiver, and that’ll make it hard for either team to create explosive offense in this game. Whoever wins might have trouble keeping pace with the elite offensive teams in the rounds to come. If the deep passing game is off the table, as I expect, I’ll roll with the team with the better offensive line and a quarterback who contributes as a runner. Expect a heavy dose of handoffs from the Golden Domers this weekend—that should be enough.
Prediction: Notre Dame wins 30-14, thanks to a good bit of bully ball.
Saturday, Noon EST: No. 11 SMU at No. 6 Penn State (-8.5)
What to watch: Drew Allar planting his flag as the top quarterback in the 2026 NFL draft class.
It wasn’t much of a surprise that Allar announced this week that he plans to return to Penn State for the 2025 season because he could use another year to improve his profile as an NFL prospect. There’s already a lot to like about the velocity he puts on his throws, and he’s taken a major step forward this season in his ability to work through a progression and deliver the ball accurately in the middle of the field. He’s still not where he needs to be with his response to pressure and how he operates in muddy pockets—he still has jittery feet and gets impatient, even when blitzes are picked up—but his performance against SMU can go a long way toward improving his trajectory as a potential high pick in the 2026 NFL draft. The Mustangs have a few weaknesses up the middle of their defense, and they sell out to stop the run, which should open up chances for Allar to target dynamic tight end Tyler Warren and receivers up the seam.
As for SMU’s offense, I struggle to see how the Mustangs’ pass protection will hold up against Penn State’s elite edge rusher Abdul Carter and the rest of the front seven. Quarterback Kevin Jennings is a fun watch, and SMU has legitimate juice at the skill positions, but we’ve seen time and again that the teams without elite players in the trenches are usually doomed come playoff time.
Prediction: Penn State goes wire to wire in this one, 38-20.
Saturday, 4 p.m. EST: No. 12 Clemson at No. 5 Texas (-11.5)
What to watch: Can Texas win a national title without starting its best quarterback?
Quarterback Quinn Ewers wasn’t the same quarterback in 2024 that we saw lighting up defenses vertically last year. His throwing mechanics have regressed, and I suspect that’s the result of him overcompensating while dealing with injuries to his ankle and oblique muscle in the regular season. His feet aren’t as active in the pocket, and it doesn’t look like he’s comfortable using his core to open up his body when he throws, and too often the ball is fluttering on throws outside the numbers. Texas’s offense operates at its best when its quarterback can attack vertically and quickly within structure. Their RPO schemes need a quick-twitch passer to get the ball into tight windows.
All of that has set up quite the quarterback controversy for the Longhorns heading into this playoff. Every drive that sputters with Ewers on Saturday will increase the calls for Arch Manning. At minimum, Manning would open up the playbook for Steve Sarkisian and give Texas more of a QB run game, which is something that was rarely an option this year with Ewers.
That said, Texas is simply a better team than Clemson, and this first-round matchup against Clemson should still be a straightforward one for Texas. The Longhorns have a talent advantage across most positions—and they have the best overall defense in the entire playoff field. In fact, this bracket sets up a straightforward path for them to the semifinals. If they don’t dominate here, we know where the fingers will be pointing.
Prediction: Clemson is overmatched. Texas cruises through the first round with a 33-17 win.
Saturday, 8 p.m. EST: No. 9 Tennessee at No. 8 Ohio State (-7.5)
What to watch: Pass rushers vs. shoddy pass protection.
Keeping their quarterbacks upright on third down has been a struggle for both of these teams, and neither Tennessee’s Nico Iamaleava or Ohio State’s Will Howard have raised the ceiling of their respective offenses by extending plays or avoiding pressure. So this may very well be a showcase game for a handful of pass rushers from both teams.
I’m excited to watch edge rushers James Pearce Jr. of Tennessee, and Ohio State’s JT Tuimoloau and Jack Sawyer when they get to face obvious passing situations. It’s certainly possible this game will be determined by which team gets the most quarterback hits or sacks—and the opportunities will be there. Both of these offenses want to attack downfield, and both quarterbacks will be forced to try to fit balls into tight coverage with pressure bearing down on them.
This is the best game of the weekend for evaluating NFL draft prospects, starting with Ohio State receiver Emeka Egbuka. He isn’t as explosive or creative as some of his old Buckeyes teammates (like Marvin Harrison Jr., Garrett Wilson, or Chris Olave) but he’s as sure-handed as former Buckeye Jaxon Smith-Njigba—and he's good enough and tough enough to get open and make plays in the middle of the field. If you’re a fan of line play, Tennessee center Cooper Mays is one of the best interior linemen in the 2025 draft class, and he’ll need to help his guards against Ohio State defensive tackle Tyleik Williams, who is one of the best run defenders in college football.
Prediction: Tennessee forces a couple of Howard turnovers and wins a close one, 23-21.
