The NBA revamped its All-Star Game format for the 2025 edition, but fan voting opened as normal on Thursday. And while the importance of the exhibition itself has waned, being invited to play remains a huge honor: Only 9 percent of players in NBA history have been All-Stars, according to an analysis of Stathead data.
The All-Star establishment is an elite group without much turnover. In the 21st century, 77 percent of All-Stars have been repeat selections. On average, only six new players become All-Stars each year.
Getting to six new All-Stars could be tricky this season, particularly because some obvious first-time candidates (Jamal Murray, Mikal Bridges) have underwhelmed. But as voting begins, let’s examine the top candidates to join this exclusive club.
The Locks: Victor Wembanyama, Cade Cunningham
The vast majority of no. 1 picks develop into All-Stars, and two more are poised to add to that legacy this season. Wembanyama is the NBA’s best defender, and he’s averaging more points on better efficiency in year two than he did as a rookie. As the future face of the league, he should receive the first of presumably many All-Star nods.
Cunningham, meanwhile, should end the league’s longest franchise All-Star drought, as the Pistons haven’t had All-Star representation since Blake Griffin in 2019. Cunningham isn’t as dominant as his surface stats suggest—he remains an inefficient scorer who commits too many turnovers—but he doesn’t have to be to make the All-Star team in the East. An exciting young player with 23-10-8 averages isn’t going to be snubbed, especially with Detroit competing for a play-in spot after its disastrous 2023-24 campaign.
A Lock If Not for Injury: Franz Wagner
Wagner would have sailed onto an All-Star roster with ease. The Magic wing was a Most Improved Player favorite, and maybe even an All-NBA candidate, until he suffered an oblique injury earlier this month. Given that teammate Paolo Banchero has already missed seven weeks and counting with an oblique injury of his own, Wagner might not even return to the court before the All-Star break, let alone play enough to keep his once-penciled-in place on the team. He’ll have to try again next season.
They’d Be Locks in the East: Jalen Williams, Alperen Sengun
Barring injury, there appear to be nine All-Star locks in the Western Conference, counting Wembanyama and eight holdovers from last year: Steph Curry, Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic, Kevin Durant, Anthony Edwards, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, LeBron James, and Nikola Jokic. That leaves just three spots for a large group of worthy candidates: Kyrie Irving, Devin Booker, James Harden, De’Aaron Fox, Domantas Sabonis, Williams, Sengun, and a Grizzly to represent the conference’s second-place team. The only certainty is that there will be snubs galore.
Even against those celebrated competitors, though, Williams has a great case. He’s the second-best player on the conference’s best team, and he’s averaging a smooth 22-6-5, plus two steals per game, on excellent efficiency. Plenty of other All-Star candidates have great stats, as well—but none of them have capably played all five positions, as Williams has, most notably filling in at center when both Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein were hurt.
Sengun has the best chance to represent the surprising third-place Rockets at the All-Star Game, as the fourth-year center has made great strides as a defender and is Houston’s most vital offensive hub. But Houston succeeds largely through an egalitarian team effort, which hurts Sengun’s counting stats, and he might have only the fifth-best case among Western centers, behind Jokic, Davis, Wembanyama, and Sabonis.
Strong Contenders: Tyler Herro, Evan Mobley
Compared to the West, there’s a lot more wiggle room in the Eastern Conference for new candidates to break through. Banchero, Joel Embiid, and Scottie Barnes were All-Stars last year, but they’ve been hurt for most of the 2024-25 season, and Bam Adebayo and the two Tyreses (Haliburton and Maxey) have much worse All-Star cases than they did a season ago, when they made the squad. There might be only six Eastern locks thus far: Giannis Antetokounmpo, Jalen Brunson, Damian Lillard, Donovan Mitchell, Jayson Tatum, and Karl-Anthony Towns. (Jaylen Brown and Trae Young will probably make it, but their numbers aren't as undeniable, so I wouldn’t write their names on my ballot in ink just yet.)
One of Adebayo’s teammates, in fact, has a better argument to make the 2025 roster. Herro had seemingly plateaued after winning Sixth Man of the Year in 2021-22, but he’s exploded this season, to the tune of 24 points per game and a 41 percent 3-point stroke on 10 attempts per contest. Herro’s a more confident playmaker now, and he’s taking smarter shots—only 24 percent of his attempts come from the midrange, per Cleaning the Glass, down from 44 percent last season. Through a third of the season, he’s been one of the best offensive players in the league.
Mobley’s All-Star claim is more subtle than Herro’s in-your-face scoring, but it’s still quite strong. The fourth-year big has always been an elite defender, and now he’s exhibiting better offensive development, with career highs in both efficiency and volume. Not only do the first-place Cavaliers deserve a second All-Star slot, after Donovan Mitchell, but Mobley might also have the best case for a reserve big man in the East. Antetokounmpo, Tatum, and Towns have the frontcourt starters’ spots sewn up, but Embiid’s injuries and Adebayo’s slump have opened the door for a new entrant.
Deeper Cuts: Jalen Johnson, Jalen Suggs, RJ Barrett
With only a handful of Eastern All-Star locks, the next tier of potential first-timers also has a chance to stake a claim over the next month and change.
Johnson is probably a long shot, if only because teammate Trae Young is a three-time All-Star who’s leading the league in assists, but he deserves a long look. In the midst of a breakout season, the fourth-year forward is just 0.4 points away from averages of 20 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists per game. There have been 44 occasions in NBA history in which a player averaged 20-10-5 over a full season—and 43 of them were named All-Stars during that season.
The third Jalen under first-time consideration will have ample opportunity to gain traction over the course of the voting window. Already an ace defender, Suggs is now the main man in Orlando while Banchero and Wagner are out. More efforts like his 32-point outburst in the Magic’s narrow loss in the NBA Cup quarterfinals would help; more games like his 4-for-19, nine-point showing against the Knicks this week would shuffle him off this list entirely.
Barrett’s leap also warrants consideration, as he’s pretty much the only reason to tune in to Raptors games these days. His 23.5 points per game are right in line with Wemby (23.6) and Cunningham (23.5), and he’s one of just 11 players averaging at least six rebounds and six assists per game.
The Late Bloomer: Derrick White
Until now, every first-time candidate discussed in this piece has been in his age-25 season or younger:
- 21 years old: Wembanyama
- 22 years old: Sengun
- 23 years old: Cunningham, Wagner, Williams, Mobley, Johnson, Suggs
- 24 years old: Barrett
- 25 years old: Herro
That dynamic fits the historical pattern. More than half of all players who become All-Stars have already done so by the time they’re 24 years old, more than three-quarters have done so by the time they’re 26, and more than 90 percent have done so by the time they’re 28.
How Old Are First-Time All-Stars?
If anything, it’s gotten even harder for older players to break through. A number of the older first-timers represented in that chart were All-Stars in 2000 (Dale Davis) or 2001 (Anthony Mason, Antonio Davis, and Vlade Divac). But in the past decade, only three players over the age of 28 have been named All-Stars for the first time:
- Kyle Korver, in his age-33 season in 2015
- Goran Dragic, in his age-31 season in 2018
- Mike Conley, finally, in his age-33 season in 2021
The 30-year-old White wouldn’t seem like an All-Star candidate because of both his age and his modest surface stats. Among qualified players, White ranks 67th in points, 94th in rebounds, and 45th in assists per game.
But White’s basic box score averages understate his impact. He plays almost every game (25 of 26 thus far), and he’s a tremendous defender and hyperefficient offensive player, thanks to a low turnover rate and 40 percent 3-point stroke. Estimated plus-minus says White has been the 10th-most valuable player in the NBA this season, just behind All-Star locks Doncic and Jalen Brunson. Seeing as 24 players make an All-Star team, a top-10 most valuable player should have a guaranteed spot! (EPM also places Wagner, Williams, and Mobley among the top dozen performers thus far, with Sengun and Wembanyama not far behind.)
Granted, White had a similar sabermetric case last season, and he ultimately fell short; he wasn’t even one of the two injury replacements selected in the East. But now he’s scoring more, and he has the added cachet of an NBA champion. That blend could give him the opportunity to become the rare first-time All-Star in his 30s.
Stats through Wednesday.
