Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the season, you’ll get my takes on the biggest stories in the league, with an eye on what’s to come. This week, we’re zeroing in on the AFC playoff picture after the Week 16 games, and looking at one big question facing each team currently in the top seven spots in that conference.
Kansas City Chiefs: Are they really doing it … again?!
You know what I’m talking about, right? It’s become an NFL tradition. We look at the Chiefs in September and October and November and the first half of December and try to figure out what’s wrong with them. Maybe they’re not winning enough games. Maybe they’re not winning by enough points. Maybe it’s injuries or holes on the roster. They can’t keep getting away with this, we all scream into our microphones. Then we look up in February, and there they are—competing for another Super Bowl. This isn’t me calling others out—I’m part of the problem! I’ve had a weekly tradition of looking up the Chiefs’ point differential and their record in one-score games to point out that this year actually does seem different.
Whoops! The Chiefs now need just one win or one Bills loss in the final two weeks to clinch the top seed in the AFC. If Kansas City beats Pittsburgh on Christmas Day, it can rest its starters in Week 18. Combine that with the first-round bye, and we’re talking about at least 23 days in between games for Patrick Mahomes and his injured ankle. That’s a big, big deal! The Chiefs couldn’t have asked for a better setup as they aim for a three-peat.
Whether they’ve actually solved some of the issues we’ve seen throughout the season is another question, but the Chiefs’ performance in their win over the Texans in Week 16 suggests they might have. There’s an eye-test factor to watching the Chiefs offense. When things are going well, it looks easy—like they have all of the answers to the test. When things are going poorly, everything looks hard. Facing a Houston defense that ranks first in efficiency, it looked easy. Mahomes was surgical. He used his legs when he needed to, but for the most part, the ball came out on time to open receivers. They got Hollywood Brown back, and suddenly a pass-catching group of Brown, DeAndre Hopkins, Xavier Worthy, and Travis Kelce seems workable. Left tackle has been an issue all season, but sliding Joe Thuney out from guard looks like it has provided a fix. Based on offensive success rate, the Chiefs’ performance against Houston ranked in the 82nd percentile—again, against a really good defense! Here’s a look at how this year’s team compares to last year’s in DVOA:
Chiefs DVOA 2023-24
The offense is in the exact same spot, and the defense and special teams are only slightly worse. I’m not saying they’re a juggernaut or that they’re unbeatable, but the Chiefs have found some answers and are in a great spot to get back to the Super Bowl. So to answer my own question, yeah, it looks like they’re doing it again.
Buffalo Bills: Is their pass defense good enough?
Before we get to that, here’s a quote you don’t want to read about your star quarterback in Week 16:
“I had no feeling in the hand,” Josh Allen said after the game. “It’s hard to throw without feeling in your hand.”
Allen returned to Sunday’s game against the Patriots after suffering a hand injury, so for our purposes here, we’ll assume that he’ll be OK by the time the playoffs roll around. If that’s not the case, well, obviously his injury would be the biggest question facing the team. But for now, I’m going to the other side of the ball. The Bills defense got lit up by the Rams and the Lions in Weeks 14 and 15, respectively. It was easy to look at those opponents and conclude that Buffalo just got a tough draw against good offenses. But in Week 16, the Bills didn’t exactly bounce back and shut down the Patriots. Drake Maye produced an 81st-percentile game based on expected points added (EPA) per pass play. Here’s where the Bills’ pass defense ranks in a few different key metrics for the season:
The Bills’ Pass Defense
Note that DVOA takes into account the strength of their opponents, whereas success rate and EPA per pass play do not. But you get the idea. A charitable view would suggest that the Bills’ pass defense is mediocre, and there is a case that they are actually much worse than that.
If you’re a glass-half-full Bills fan (do those still exist?), there’s a simple explanation here. The Bills have been dealing with a bunch of injuries to players like linebacker Matt Milano and cornerback Rasul Douglas. Get those guys back healthy for the playoffs, and this defense is going to look a lot different. On the other hand, take a look at the Bills’ recent playoff losses to teams like the Chiefs and Bengals. The defensive performances have been ugly. Sean McDermott is an excellent defensive coach, but he has not been able to come up with one-off game plans to slow down quarterbacks like Joe Burrow and Patrick Mahomes. Now consider the Bills’ potential playoff path. Depending on how things go down the stretch, they very well could be looking at a scenario where they have to take down Lamar Jackson and Mahomes to finally get to the Super Bowl. Can the defense do its part against those quarterbacks? The Bills don’t really deserve the benefit of the doubt here.
If the pass defense doesn’t improve, there’s another solution: simply outscore everyone. And that’s always in play as long as Allen is healthy. But the margin for error shrinks when your defense can’t get a stop. It becomes harder to overcome things like special teams mishaps or fluky turnovers. If the Bills reach the Super Bowl, it’s going to be on the back of Allen and an elite offense. Still, the pass defense needs to look a whole better than it has in recent weeks.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Can they get their first playoff win since the 2016 season?
There are two streaks that pretty much have to come up any time you talk about Mike Tomlin’s run with the Steelers. One is the “has never had a losing record” streak. The man has coached 18 years and his teams have never finished below .500. I don’t care if some people think this nugget gets brought up way too often. It’s an incredible feat. The other streak is the “hasn’t won a playoff game since 2016.” This gets my vote for most misleading nugget in modern NFL history. There is a group of Tomlin detractors who think he’s overrated and will point out that the Steelers haven’t won a playoff game in a long, long time. My response to those people? Go look at those teams and those quarterbacks and tell me if the Steelers would have even sniffed the postseason with another coach. The answer is they would not have. They would have been complete disasters. So I’m not about to ding Tomlin for failing to win playoff games when his teams had no business even making the postseason.
Having said that, you know what I’d really like? To get those haters out of my life. And that would require the Steelers winning a playoff game. If the season ended today, they’d still own the tiebreaker over the Ravens in the AFC North, but Pittsburgh might have trouble hanging onto first place over the next two weeks. They’ve got the Chiefs on Christmas and the Bengals in Week 18. If the Steelers hang on to first place in the AFC North, they’ll likely host the Chargers or Broncos in the first round. If they slip to a wild-card spot, they’ll travel to Houston, Baltimore, or Buffalo.
I don’t think there are a lot of people out there who think the Steelers can actually get to the Super Bowl. The defense is legit (assuming it goes into the playoffs with its key players healthy), and Tomlin thrives in the underdog role. The offense should look a lot better once wide receiver George Pickens returns from a hamstring injury that has sidelined him for the past few weeks, but that group still has a limited ceiling. Pittsburgh’s kicking game gives them an edge almost every week. In reality, their chances of ending the playoff win drought depends on how their regular season ends. If they get a home playoff game, or even if they have to travel to Houston, I like their chances. If the Steelers slip down the stretch and have to go to Buffalo or Baltimore, I just don’t think they’ll have enough, and we’ll have to hear about the stupid drought for at least one more year.
Houston Texans: Is their offense good enough?
The Texans are 9-6 and have already clinched the AFC South. Yet it’s hard to shake the feeling that this season has been a disappointment. C.J. Stroud was supposed to make a leap after a promising rookie season. The offense was supposed to join the NFL’s elite with a healthier line and supporting cast. The team was supposed to emerge as a legit Super Bowl contender. But those things haven’t happened, and with two games left, the Texans look like a team that’s going to go into the offseason having to answer some hard questions.
The issues here are not difficult to diagnose. The defense ranks first in DVOA—first against the pass and third against the run. Now take a look at Houston’s offensive metrics:
Texans Offensive Advance Metrics
Success rate measures the frequency with which an offense produces a positive play. The only team that’s been worse in that regard than the Texans is the Browns. Teams like the Giants, Titans, and Raiders have produced positive offensive plays at a higher rate than the Texans. That is flat-out unacceptable. In Week 16 against the Chiefs, wide receiver Tank Dell suffered a devastating knee injury. The team is already without Stefon Diggs. And the offensive line has been a disaster—Stroud has been pressured on 38.9 percent of his dropbacks, the fourth-highest rate among starting QBs. Meanwhile, offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik has shown no ability to scheme up answers to make up for some of the roster shortcomings.
So where does this all leave the Texans? They will host a playoff game, likely against the Steelers, Ravens, Chargers, or Broncos. Weird things happen in the playoffs. I still believe in Stroud, and the defense has been very good. Maybe they surprise us in January. But the most likely scenario is that the Texans experience an early exit and work all offseason to recapture the feel-good vibes from a year ago.
Baltimore Ravens: Are they set up to finally get over the hump?
One of the hardest things to predict in sports is when a team is finally going to break through. The Ravens have made the playoffs in five of the last six years. Last season, for the first time during that run, they got to the conference championship. But we still haven’t seen Lamar Jackson in the Super Bowl. Does that change this season? Any offense can have a bad performance in a one-off playoff game, but it’s hard to identify an actual weakness with this group. Not only are the Ravens first in offensive efficiency, but they’re also balanced. They’re first in both passing and rushing. There’s not that one thing defenses can take away when facing the Ravens. They can win with the run game or the pass game. They can be methodical or explosive. They can operate in structure or in chaos. The flexibility makes them dangerous.
Defensively, I still don’t fully trust them, but the Ravens are playing the best they have all season of late. They made personnel changes at safety, and having Kyle Hamilton play in the back end to prevent explosive plays has given them a big boost. Baltimore’s defense is all the way up to 10th in DVOA.
Perhaps the most interesting aspect of the Ravens’ potential postseason run is the path they’ll have to take to get to New Orleans. Baltimore is currently the 5-seed. If they stay there, they’d likely have to win three road games to get to the Super Bowl. Even if they swap places with the Steelers and win the AFC North, they’ll still have to likely win road games in Buffalo and Kansas City. Think about the drama! Allen and Jackson squaring off just for a shot at Mahomes. These are legacy games that will shape the offseason narratives for the quarterbacks and their respective organizations. The Ravens have had “easier” playoff paths in previous seasons, but they failed to capitalize. Sometimes the football gods operate in mysterious ways. Maybe the Ravens have to conquer their past playoff demons head-on to finally get over the hump.
Los Angeles Chargers: Are they the most likely AFC disruptor?
We know who the favorites are in the AFC: the Chiefs, Bills, and Ravens. We also know that the playoffs are unpredictable and that we’re going to get surprises. So among the other teams, who is most likely to produce a shocking upset? I choose the Chargers. (When has this ever burned me before?) Let’s be clear: this is a flawed team. They’re competent at pretty much everything, but not great at any one thing. Justin Herbert is playing with an ankle injury. The pass-catching options are uninspiring. The offensive line has issues. And while the defense is sound, it’s simply not very talented.
OK, so what’s the case for Los Angeles? One, Jim Harbaugh is an excellent coach. It took him no time at all to turn the Chargers around. Harbaugh now has a .677 winning percentage in the NFL. He’s coached in big games—both with the 49ers and at Michigan. The Chargers will be prepared and have a good game plan for whichever opponent they face in January. Two, while their defense is going to lose its fair share of one-on-one matchups, the Chargers will at least make opposing offenses work for every yard. They’re allowing explosive plays on just 10.8 percent of opponents’ dropbacks—the third-best rate of any defense. In other words, they might lose, but they’ll probably lose slowly and keep the game competitive. And finally, there’s Herbert. We saw Thursday night against the Broncos that when he’s on, the Chargers are going to have a chance. Going up against a Denver defense that ranks fourth in efficiency, the Chargers delivered their best offensive game of the year—a 96th-percentile performance, based on success rate.
The Chargers haven’t clinched a playoff berth yet, but they have a 94 percent chance of getting in, according to the New York Times’ playoff projections. It’s entirely possible that they’re a year away from being a real threat, but there’s at least a blueprint here for them to make some noise in January.
Denver Broncos: Are we sure they’re going to hang on here?
Any way you slice it, this season has to be considered a success for the Broncos. They’ve already outperformed preseason expectations and are well-positioned to make the playoffs. But we have to ask the question: Are they going to blow it? Right now, the Broncos (9-6) have a 76 percent chance of getting in. The easiest way for Denver to clinch is to win one of its final two games: at Cincinnati on Saturday, or home against the Chiefs in Week 18. They are currently three-point underdogs against the Bengals. The finale against the Chiefs could get significantly easier if the Chiefs win in Week 17 (or the Bills lose) and Kansas City locks up the top seed. That means Denver could face Carson Wentz and other Chiefs backups in that game.
Who are the Broncos trying to hold off? According to the playoff projections, the Colts (18 percent chance) are their biggest threat. Indianapolis has the third-easiest remaining schedule with games at the Giants and home against the Jaguars. The Dolphins (7 percent) and Bengals (4 percent) are the other two teams that have not been eliminated.
So how does this all play out? I think the Broncos take care of business in the next two weeks. Maybe they lose this weekend but beat the backup Chiefs in Week 18. I could see a surprisingly close game there that ends with the Broncos making a game-clinching interception. Afterwards, Sean Payton reminds everyone how smart he is and explains to reporters that he called the coverage on the key play based on something he remembered about Wentz from his time at North Dakota State. Everyone eats it up, and the Broncos prepare for a first-round playoff matchup in Buffalo.
