Luka Doncic left the Dallas Mavericks’ Christmas loss in the second quarter, and the news only got worse on Thursday night: Doncic will miss at least a month due to a calf strain, according to ESPN.
Don’t expect Luka to return in January. ESPN’s report said he would be reevaluated in a month, and given the injury’s timing and Dallas’s packed schedule, it’s plausible that Luka won’t return until after the All-Star break, which would cause him to miss Dallas’s next 26 games.
That’s an obvious blow to last year’s Western Conference champs, who currently sit in fourth place in the West, with a 19-11 record and healthy point differential that indicates a strong chance at another Finals berth. It’s also a blow to Luka’s budding résumé, given that he will now certainly play fewer than 65 games this season and thus not qualify for postseason awards. Combining both team and individual implications, here are the four most important ripple effects from Doncic’s extended absence.
Dallas Still Has a Chance to Return to the Finals
Dallas isn’t doomed without Doncic the same way that, say, Denver would be without Nikola Jokic. The Mavericks are 6-2 without Doncic this season—including wins over the Thunder, Nuggets, and Knicks—and one of those losses came when Kyrie Irving was absent, too. In all games, the Mavericks have a solid plus-2.6 net rating without Doncic on the court, per Cleaning the Glass.
The Dallas front office has done an admirable job building support for its star, and that depth will prove crucial over this next stretch. The Mavericks have the luxury of another top-25 player who can step in to take over the offense. Kyrie is already enjoying a tremendous season, averaging 24 points per game and sinking a career-high 44 percent of his 3s. If he steps up even further in Luka’s absence, he could make his first All-NBA team since he was a member of the Nets in 2020-21.
Beyond Irving, new arrival Klay Thompson can pick up some of the scoring slack. And the big frontcourt, with P.J. Washington, Dereck Lively II, and Daniel Gafford, remains one of the best in the West.
(Lest it appears that Luka’s injury increases the Mavericks’ urgency to trade for Jimmy Butler, who reportedly has Dallas on his destination list: Dallas would have to trade either Kyrie or several of these key frontcourt contributors to match Butler’s salary. That would be an unlikely course, even if Pat Riley were willing to trade his veteran star.)
Most members of Dallas’s rotation have higher usage rates when playing without Luka this season, according to PBP Stats—especially the two guards who will now assume the team’s creative responsibilities, Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie. But the Mavericks still have a healthy shot distribution without their lead playmaker; Irving is the only high-volume player, and as one of the NBA’s most efficient high-usage scorers, he can handle those extra looks.
Mavericks’ Usage Rates With and Without Luka Doncic
Even in a crowded Western Conference race, moreover, the Mavericks’ strong start means they should have enough wiggle room to drop in the standings and still reach the playoffs, or at the very least qualify for the play-in tournament. That’s all they need, because Luka can beat anyone in a playoff series—just last spring, Dallas reached the Finals as a no. 5 seed, after starting all three series on the road.
But Now It’s a Lot Tougher, With No Margin for Error
Here’s the counter to that optimistic first section: Just because the Mavericks have survived without Luka so far, in a limited sample this season, doesn’t mean they will continue to do so. For instance, although the Mavericks never had a large on/off difference early in Doncic’s career—which sparked discussions about whether he was an overrated star—they’ve been much better with him over the last few seasons, as would be expected of a perennial First Team All-NBA player.
And even though Kyrie, Klay, and the supporting cast have the potential to make up for Luka’s lost scoring and playmaking, there are some parts of Doncic’s offensive genius that are impossible to recreate in the aggregate. Only 38 percent of Dallas’s shot attempts when Doncic isn’t on the floor are 3-pointers, per PBP Stats, because he creates so many open looks. That would rank 27th among all teams. And the Mavericks’ role players have to take tougher shots without Luka setting them up.
Mavericks’ Shot Quality With and Without Luka Doncic
On average, the Mavericks’ rotation players have a shot quality 2.2 percentage points worse with Luka off the floor. That’s a meaningful difference: A loss of 2.2 points of effective field goal percentage is worth about a 10-spot drop on the team leaderboard.
More importantly, the Mavericks lose their margin for error for more injuries if they’re already dealing with the absence of their best player. Irving has been available for 27 of the Mavericks’ 30 games so far this season, but his track record suggests that rate won’t last. Kyrie hasn’t played more than 60 games in a season since he was on the Celtics in 2018-19.
So either Kyrie, at 32 years old, will remain healthier than he has since he was in his mid-20s, or else the Mavericks will have to figure out a way to win some games without either of their two star guards. That’s a much tougher task: The Mavericks’ offense has scored just 110.8 points per 100 possessions without Luka and Kyrie this season, per CtG, which ranks in the 30th percentile of all lineups around the league. And most of those star-less possessions have come against opposing bench units; they’d fare even worse in big minutes against opposing starters.
Washington and Lively are top-100 players, but they’re succeeding largely because they excel in limited, defined roles. Neither can carry an offense for an extended stretch—but neither can any other Maverick other than Luka and Kyrie. Dinwiddie is 31 and half a decade past his prime; Thompson is 34 and more than half a decade past his.
The Mavericks also have one of the 10 most difficult remaining schedules, per Tankathon, and the West is strong enough that a single slump could dump them into play-in territory. Navigating that postseason path is doable, but it wouldn’t be easy. And with 12 teams fighting for 10 spots in the West, there’s an outside chance that the Mavericks could tumble outside the play-in entirely. A 9-17 record in their next 26 games—if Luka misses that many—would drop Dallas to .500, which is currently the dividing line for the West’s no. 10 seed.
A First Team All-NBA Spot Is Now Available
Doncic is one of the most decorated young players in NBA history. He won Rookie of the Year in a nearly unanimous vote, then made the All-NBA First Team in each of his next five seasons. No other player in NBA history had so many First Team nods through the age of 24.
Most First Team All-NBA Nods Through Age 24
Doncic was on track to keep that streak going this season. Even though his numbers aren’t as strong as they have been in recent years, his personal baseline is so high that even a relative slump still supplies extraordinary production: Luka remains a top-five player by estimated plus-minus, and he placed fifth in ESPN’s MVP straw poll last week.
The four players ahead of him were Jokic, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Giannis Antetokounmpo, and Jayson Tatum—meaning the top five players in the MVP straw poll happened to be the five players who made First Team All-NBA in 2023-24. They were all on a path to repeat in 2024-25.
But now Luka’s out, due to the 65-game threshold for postseason honors, so a spot is available for a fifth star to sneak in. There’s no shortage of high-caliber candidates (some of whom have their own injury issues): Donovan Mitchell, Jalen Brunson, Karl-Anthony Towns, Ja Morant, Anthony Davis, Steph Curry, Kevin Durant, and more.
Or Victor Wembanyama might seize the opportunity, as he continues with his seemingly monthly leaps. Wemby is already the best defensive player in the NBA, and he’s leveling up on offense, too; EPM says he’s been the third-best player overall this season, behind only SGA and Jokic.
It would be fitting if Wembanyama took Luka’s vacated spot, ahead of all the veteran contenders. Luka is the only player since Tim Duncan to make the First Team by his second season. Now Wemby has the chance to join them.
Luka’s Climb Up the Career Leaderboards Stalls
Speaking of Wemby: I might be getting ahead of myself, but as the French phenom ascends the NBA ranks, Doncic’s latest injury—the third to this same calf in recent seasons—makes me wonder if Luka will ever win an MVP award. That outcome has long seemed preordained, given Luka’s brilliance at such a young age, and the 2024-25 season was his best chance yet. The Mavericks were fresh off a Finals run, voters might have been expected to experience Jokic fatigue, and Wemby seemed a year away from true MVP contention. It was no surprise that Luka entered the season as the betting favorite.
But now that opportunity has been squandered, and future opportunities could be, as well with a generational force like Wembanyama lurking. More urgently, Doncic’s health is now concerning enough—particularly as he ages out of his early 20s—that he might always struggle to reach the necessary 65 games to contend for awards. Luka’s 72 games played as a rookie still represent a career high, and if he remains sidelined until this year’s All-Star break, he’ll have missed 109 career games to that point, or 21 percent of his possible contests.
All those absences also conspire to limit Luka’s counting stats, which could hamper his eventual climb up career leaderboards. Consider that among all players in NBA history who debuted at age 20 or younger, Luka ranks first in points per game through his age-25 season. But he’s only sixth in total points through 25 because of all his injuries.
Most Points Through Age 25
To some extent, this is picking nits—sixth all time in points through age 25 is superb!—but for players at Luka’s level, those nits matter. LeBron James is the career scoring champion not just because of his skill, but because of his availability. Doncic has never played more than 72 games in his first seven years, while LeBron never played fewer than 75 over his first seven. Luka has a chance to finish his career as one of the all-time greats. But he has to stay on the court to do so.
