After a Wednesday doubleheader and Thursday Night Football, it’s a little overwhelming to fathom that there are still 13 remaining games across seven different football viewing windows in Week 17.
All three games on Saturday have significant playoff implications for the AFC Wild-Card picture and the NFC West.
While the top of the AFC is more crystallized following the Christmas games, the final two wild-card spots could come down to the final week if there’s more chaos on Saturday. I already previewed the first three games of the penultimate week of the NFL regular season in Part I.
In Part II, I break down all 13 of the remaining games in Week 17, beginning with Saturday’s triple-header. I’ve included some bets I’m considering throughout the piece and bets I’ve already made at the bottom of the preview. All lines are from FanDuel as of Friday morning.
Sunday Games
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at New England Patriots
The biggest question for me about the AFC playoffs is how to rank and price the Chargers compared to the rest of the expected field. We know that the Bills, Chiefs, and Ravens are legitimate contenders and juggernauts. I have always been skeptical of the Broncos, Steelers, and Texans, and all three teams showed serious flaws in the last two weeks in national standalone games.
The Chargers have a great coach and an excellent quarterback, but their resumé and underlying metrics don’t really hold up to scrutiny. Justin Herbert and Jim Harbaugh give them a floor that’s much higher than the second-tier teams, but the ceiling is far lower than the rest. Their best wins were against the Broncos twice and the Bengals in a pure coin-flip shootout. They’ve been competitive in losses to the Chiefs, but isn’t almost everyone competitive in close losses to the Chiefs?
The Chargers offense lost Gus Edwards to injury, and while J.K. Dobbins is listed as questionable, he did practice on Thursday. The skill group is quite limited in explosiveness overall, outside of Ladd McConkey’s production. I don’t trust them to separate from an inferior opponent, and the defensive cracks have been showing up for months.
Los Angeles ranked first in EPA per drive allowed in the first nine weeks of the season. Since Week 10, the Chargers are 29th. You’ll still see stats thrown around about how the defense ranks well in points allowed per game, but so much of that is built on the first half of the year. It hasn’t been a good defense for more than a month.
New England is tied for the seventh-highest success rate since Week 10, and that tells me that they can sustain drives and score points against the Chargers. For that reason, I’m backing New England as a home underdog and putting the Chargers on upset alert.
Verdict: Bet Patriots +4.5 (-110)
Denver Broncos at Cincinnati Bengals (-3)
I believe the average NFL fan may be surprised to see the Bengals as a full 3-point favorite against the Broncos, especially since the Bengals are two games behind them in the standings.
The betting market seems to think the Bengals are currently better than the Chargers, considering that Cincinnati is a full -3 and the Chargers closed -2.5 at home in Week 16 against Denver.
If you’ve watched the Broncos dominate the NFC South (4-0), or witnessed them defeat the Colts by multiple scores with less than 200 yards of offense, you may realize why the public perception of them is higher than the betting market’s. Denver has been outgained in four consecutive games, and most of its best wins have come against one of the league’s worst divisions. When you add the Bengals poor close game results this year, it becomes clear why the Bengals are rightful favorites.
At Bengals -2.5, I’d bet on Cincinnati. The market has fluctuated to Bengals -3.5 a few times throughout the week, only to be brought back to -3 by sharp Denver money every single time. The key injuries to watch for Cincinnati are offensive tackles Amarius Mims and Orlando Brown. Both were full participants on Thursday, so I anticipate both will play in this game. Without them, it could be a challenging afternoon for Joe Burrow against this aggressive Denver defense. However, with them, you can see why Cincinnati has been one of the league’s best offenses this year.
The issue for Denver’s defense in this matchup is how well Burrow has performed against the blitz. The Broncos love to bring extra rushers, but Burrow has managed to score 12 touchdowns, three interceptions, and average 7.7 yards per attempt when blitzed, according to PFF.
On paper, Denver’s offensive line has major advantages against the Bengals weak run defense, so controlling the ball and keeping Burrow off the field is the best strategy for Sean Payton in this game. For me, the most likely outcome for this game is Cincinnati winning by three, so I have no bet, but a Bengals victory could lead to chaos in the AFC wild-card picture in Week 18.
Verdict: Bet Bengals at -2.5, pass at -3
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams (-6.5)
Every year in the final two weeks of the season, the “must-win tax” gets applied to teams chasing playoff positions that are facing teams with nothing at stake. This game is a classic example. The Rams have a chance to almost clinch the NFC West with a win on Saturday, while Arizona’s loss to the Panthers on Sunday just ended their season. If the game were played a week or two ago, the line would probably be Rams -4 or Rams -4.5. Now? It’s almost seven. The market assumes the Rams are more likely to win because they need the game more.
Arizona will be without both of its starting offensive tackles, Paris Johnson Jr. and Jonah Williams, due to injury. James Conner is listed as questionable. The Cardinals won’t be playing in the playoffs, but they have a better point differential and still have a chance to finish the year with a winning record. Given they are essentially in year two of a rebuild, I expect a solid effort from Arizona on Saturday.
Even with the injuries up front, the spread has gotten too high and the Rams haven’t won a single divisional game by more than six all season long. I’ll be waiting to see if the line moves to seven before betting it though.
Verdict: Lean Cardinals +6.5, bet at +7
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles (-7)
The market heavily favored Dallas on Thursday afternoon as Jalen Hurts didn’t participate in Thursday’s practice following his concussion on Sunday. The spread for this game opened as high as Philadelphia -9.5, but it seems more likely than not that Hurts will not clear concussion protocol and will miss Sunday’s division-clinching opportunity. Eagles backup quarterback Kenny Pickett practiced with extra padding around his injured ribs, and facing Dallas’ elite pass rush is not ideal for a somewhat injured quarterback.
The Eagles excel at ball control offense, but they struggled to put together sustained drives once Hurts left Sunday’s game against the Commanders. In the second half, the Eagles posted a neutral 0.00 EPA per play and only a 24 percent success rate. Hurts brings value as a runner, especially on high-leverage late-down conversions and in the red zone. Without him, the Eagles offense will heavily rely on the ground game for key gains.
Although Philadelphia has an advantage on paper against the Dallas run defense, the Cowboys will likely load the box against Pickett and his career average of 6.2 yards per attempt average.
This is the second time the Eagles defense has faced Cooper Rush this season, and the Cowboys struggled to generate offense in the first meeting. They finished the game with only 146 total yards on 2.6 yards per play. Dallas’ run offense has improved since then, but relying on the quick passing game through Rush will be challenging in potentially rainy and windy conditions.
All signs point to the under here, especially since Dallas’ top offensive player, CeeDee Lamb, has been shut down for the season.
Verdict: Bet Under 39.5 (-110)
Las Vegas Raiders (-1.5) at New Orleans Saints
It might seem easy to base predictions on last week’s game, where the Raiders showed fighting spirit, while the Saints suffered a 34-0 loss in Green Bay. Many might assume that the Raiders have the upper hand going into this game.
However, just a week ago, the market favored Jacksonville as a road team against Las Vegas. It seems like an overreaction to now make the Raiders the favorites in New Orleans based on just one game from each team in Week 16.
The Saints have been the stronger team throughout the season, but their offense is currently relying on backup players. On the other hand, the Raiders have their top skill players healthy. Despite the odds, I am inclined to go with the Raiders in this match.
Verdict: Pass
New York Jets at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
With the Kansas City Chiefs securing the first seed in the AFC playoffs, the Bills have less at stake in the final two weeks. Buffalo still needs one more win to secure the second seed, but they are in a holding pattern, saving their best offensive strategies for January.
Josh Allen is dealing with right shoulder and elbow issues this week, giving the Bills more reason to limit his running and scrambling. Buffalo wants Allen to be well-rested for the more crucial games, even if that means he throws the ball away instead of risking injury for extra yards. Without Allen’s legs operating at full efficiency, the Bills offense may not be as dominant as it was against the Rams, Chiefs, or Lions earlier this season. It could resemble the group that struggled to score 17 offensive points against New England’s bottom-tier defense.
Aaron Rodgers plans to play on Sunday, despite a knee injury that could further hamper an offense already lacking explosiveness. The Jets rank in the bottom 10 in the NFL in explosive play rate and now face a Buffalo defense designed to limit those big plays.
In their Week 6 matchup, the total closed at 42.5. Now, in Week 17 with two quarterbacks dealing with injuries, rainy and windy conditions above 10 mph, the total is set at 46.5. The adjustment seems too high, and I’ll be betting the under, expecting a similar outcome to last week’s Buffalo win.
Verdict: Bet Under 47 (-110)
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5)
Every team in the NFL has covered at least four times this year except the Tennessee Titans, who are 2-13 against the spread. Less than a week after Brian Callahan made an impassioned defense of his team’s effort, they trailed the Colts 38-7 in a division game. Credit to the Titans for fighting back and cutting it to 38-30, but this is not a team I could ever seriously advise betting on again in 2024.
For as much as the Jaguars have actually been a feisty underdog for most of the second half of the season, it’s amazing that the market is making Mac Jones and Jacksonville a favorite. Everything surrounding this game is an indictment on both franchises at the moment.
Verdict: Pass
Indianapolis Colts (-7.5) at New York Giants
Anthony Richardson is dealing with several injuries and may not start on Sunday after missing practice on both Wednesday and Thursday. The Colts could be eliminated by kickoff if both the Chargers and Broncos win on Saturday. Even if the Colts are playing for their season and have their quarterback, he will likely be limited as a runner on Sunday, significantly limiting what the Colts like to do on the ground.
The Colts offense isn’t consistent enough through the air to be laying more than a touchdown on the road in an NFL game. Indianapolis should have success running the ball, but it’s much harder to generate margin as a run-heavy team, unless the other team is handing you extra possessions and excellent field position. I know that Drew Lock could throw another pick-six or two and easily ruin my Giants bet, but keep in mind this is the same Colts team that turned the ball over five times in their last road game at Denver.
Since Week 10, the Colts rank 28th with a 41.7 percent success rate offensively. The Giants are 29th at 41.6 percent. It will take a lot of high-leverage plays swinging toward the Colts for them to win this game by a margin. After all, the Colts have only one win by more than a touchdown all year, which came last week at home against the Titans.
This is a prime opportunity to bet against an average team in a must-win spot. If it’s 7.5 or more, I like the Giants.
Verdict: Bet Giants +7.5 (-110)
Carolina Panthers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8.5)
The Panthers really should have won their Week 13 home game against the Buccaneers. Adam Thielen had a touchdown catch overturned that sure looked like a catch to me. Eddy Piñeiro missed two field goals, and Chuba Hubbard fumbled while the Panthers were inside field goal range in overtime. Instead, Tampa Bay hit a game-winning field goal and won by three.
You could say, “well, that’s the Panthers for you,” and you’d be right.
But the point is that Carolina was in the game with a very real chance to win that Sunday and I think they will be again this Sunday. Bryce Young excelled against the blitz-heavy schemes of the Chiefs and Bucs earlier this year and I think he can do it again in the second meeting. He was one of the highest-graded QBs in Week 16 per PFF in the win against the Cardinals.
The Buccaneers will find a ton of success on the ground against a terrible Panthers run defense, but the Panthers defense is improving at taking away big plays as a whole. They have a corner in Jaycee Horn who can at least try to slow down Mike Evans.
Now that Kirk Cousins is benched, Baker Mayfield has surpassed him for the most turnover-worthy plays in the NFL. He’ll make a mistake or two to keep the Panthers in this. If the spread is above seven, I like the Panthers on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet Panthers +8 or better
Miami Dolphins (-6.5) at Cleveland Browns
With Dorian Thompson-Robinson at quarterback, the Browns ranked 29th in success rate and 30th in EPA per play of all 32 teams who played in Week 16. That was despite playing the Bengals, one of the league’s worst defenses. He’s now appeared in 13 games as an NFL player and has one touchdown, nine interceptions, and has averaged 3.9 yards per attempt.
Simply put: he’s not close to NFL-caliber quarterback play. Also, both rain and high winds are in the forecast for Cleveland on Sunday, so we should see a run-heavy game plan from both teams. It’s hard to trust Miami to generate margin, given how inconsistent they’ve been in adverse weather conditions over the years. But how does this game get to 40 points?
Cleveland’s defense is still excellent at generating quick pressure, and the Dolphins offense has struggled to find explosive plays in part because of the struggles of the offensive line to hold up in protection.
This feels like a game that ends 23-10 Miami and is never really in doubt. I’ll be surprised if Cleveland gets to 17 points without help from Miami turnovers. If DTR did get hurt or removed from the game, Bailey Zappe is the expected backup on Sunday. He’s better than DTR and had some moments last year, but I’ll take my chances betting against the dire Cleveland quarterback situation once again. If I had to bet a side, it would be Miami or nothing.
Verdict: Bet Under 39.5 points (-110) or Cleveland Team Total Under 16.5 (-110)
Green Bay Packers (-1.5) at Minnesota Vikings
The market is treating the 11-4 Packers as a better team than the 13-2 Vikings with this line as essentially a tossup in Minnesota. I agree with the sentiment that the Packers have a higher power rating, but I don’t think there’s a ton of betting value on either side in this matchup. A Green Bay loss could bump them down to the seven seed if the Commanders win Sunday. A Green Bay win would leave them more likely than not to pass the Vikings for the five seed in Week 18. That could be the difference between a first-round trip to Philadelphia or Atlanta, so this game absolutely matters for Green Bay. Meanwhile, Minnesota still controls its own destiny for the first seed in the NFC playoffs.
Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores did an excellent job in the first matchup of bringing pressure and speeding up Jordan Love’s processing. As a result, Love made multiple early mistakes that dug the Packers into a huge hole. Green Bay fought its way back into the game and was able to generate consistent explosive plays throughout, which would suggest that there could be plenty of points in this game regardless of whether it’s close or one team grabs a multiple-score lead.
These two defenses will let you move the ball on them, but they’re both excellent at locking down on third downs and the red zone. As a result, both the Packers and Vikings are top five in EPA per drive allowed in the second half of the season.
When great offenses match up against great defenses indoors, I usually tend to side with the offenses. This is especially true with two units as good at forcing turnovers as Green Bay and Minnesota have been this year. That sets up potential short fields. These two offenses also rank top six in explosive play rate, so the ball will constantly be moving up and down the field.
I expect points in this matchup, and the kind of game where the last team with the ball wins.
Verdict: Lean Over 48.5 points
Sunday Night Football
Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders (-4.5)
Michael Penix Jr.’s first NFL start was better than his statline would suggest against the Giants last week. His interception was entirely the fault of Kyle Pitts’s poor hands at the catch point, and he was able to effectively push the ball down the field with real mustard on the throws consistently. However, playing the Giants at home is much easier than a road prime-time game against the Commanders.
Washington had an impressive win at home against the Eagles, but that victory was possibly due to the early concussion suffered by Jalen Hurts. The Commanders managed to overcome five turnovers to win the game in the final moments, showcasing impressive resiliency and playmaking skills from Jayden Daniels. It’s unclear what this win truly indicates about the Commanders as a whole.
It does show that Daniels struggled during the middle portion of the season when he was injured, but he appears to be considerably healthier now in December. This game is shaping up to be one of the most intriguing matchups of the weekend, but due to the uncertainty surrounding Penix’s first road start, I am hesitant to place any bets on it.
One important note: Atlanta’s defense has significantly improved in the last month, showing a lot of strength and generating a high level of havoc, which was a major weakness in the first half of the season.
Verdict: Pass
Monday Night Football
Detroit Lions (-3.5) at San Francisco 49ers
I have a feeling that the Lions can sense an opportunity on Monday night to seek revenge and make a statement to the rest of the NFC. Earlier this year, the Lions were -3 on the road against an injured and struggling Cowboys team. The Lions defeated them 47-9, running up the score and executing trick plays and offensive lineman laterals in the fourth quarter. Detroit was unfairly treated by the officials in Dallas last year and missed out on a trip to the Super Bowl with a loss in Santa Clara last January.
Now, the 49ers are struggling and dealing with numerous injuries. Key offensive lineman Trent Williams is out for the season, and the 49ers lack healthy running backs. An offense that used to consistently score at least 24 points per game has now scored 17 or fewer in four of Brock Purdy’s last five starts.
Dan Campbell understands that the Lions likely only need to win in Week 18 to secure the no. 1 seed, so this game may not be crucial for Detroit. However, he mentioned that they intend to approach it like any other game and give it their all, and I trust his word.
Detroit has demonstrated a desire to run up the score, and they might have the opportunity to do so against a Niners team that has fallen short of expectations more than any other NFL team.
Verdict: Bet Lions -3.5 (-104), sprinkle -9.5 (+230) and -13.5 (+340)
Bets I’ve made already:
Jets-Bills Under 47 (-110)
Cowboys-Eagles Under 39.5 (-110)
Dolphins-Browns Under 39.5 (-110)
Patriots +4.5 (-115)
Giants +7.5 (-110)
Panthers +8 (-105)
Lions -3.5 (-104), sprinkle -9.5 (+230) and -13.5 (+340)
