Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the season, you’ll get my takes on the biggest stories in the league, with an eye on what’s to come. This week, we’re looking at Raheem Morris’s big mistake at the end of Sunday Night Football, weighing a complicated decision for the Eagles, considering which head coach jobs could come open in January, and taking one more look at the potential playoff field.
Raheem Morris’s blunder might have cost the Falcons a playoff spot.
There is an alternate universe in which Falcons fans are loving life right now. Picture it: Rookie quarterback Michael Penix Jr. has just led his team on two late-game scoring drives in prime time against the Commanders—one to tie the game, another to win it. The Falcons are in first place in the NFC South, control their own fate heading into a Week 18 game against Carolina, and are primed to host a playoff game in the wild-card round. This year is a pleasant surprise, and the future looks bright.
Unfortunately, because of one of the most costly game management blunders of the season, that world is not reality.
With Sunday night’s game against the Commanders tied at 24, Atlanta got the ball at its own 19 with 40 seconds left and two timeouts. Penix rifled a pass to Darnell Mooney for 25 yards on first down to get the Falcons all the way to their own 44 with 33 seconds left. NBC’s Mike Tirico correctly pointed out that Mooney didn’t get out of bounds, so Morris needed to call a timeout. The only problem? Morris didn’t do it! Atlanta let 16 seconds tick off the clock, and the Falcons’ next snap came with 17 seconds left. The drive ended with Falcons kicker Riley Patterson missing from 56 yards out as time expired. Did you see the kick? It was on the right line, but landed short of the goal posts. Let me be clear: THERE IS NO REASON THAT THE FALCONS SHOULD HAVE BEEN ATTEMPTING A KICK FROM THAT DISTANCE! That attempt came on first down! Had Morris used the timeouts correctly, Penix would have likely had at least two more pass attempts to get them closer. Had that been a 48- or a 51-yard kick, the Falcons very well might have won that game in regulation, which would have put them in the driver’s seat in the NFC South. Instead, the Commanders won in overtime, and now Atlanta needs a win and a Tampa Bay loss in Week 18 to get into the postseason.
Coaches will sleep in their offices and work 100-hour weeks and grind the film to look for a minor tell that can help them on one play in one game. Yet so often they fail to be buttoned-up when it comes to game management. This wasn’t even a tricky decision, like a 50/50 call on fourth down or choosing whether to go for two when trailing by eight in the fourth quarter. This was an obvious one, and the Falcons screwed it up.
I am sympathetic to the fact that head coaches are dealing with a hundred different things during the week and during the game. It’s easy to get flustered under high-stress conditions. This is why you hire someone to help you! How did Morris not have someone in the headset whom he trusts imploring him to call timeout? It’s truly mind-boggling. Morris has shown the potential to be a good head coach. But that unnecessary blunder in a big spot will likely have the Falcons sitting at home during wild-card weekend.
We need the Bengals to get the last AFC wild-card spot.
Don’t make me beg! In one of the weirder seasons for a team in recent NFL history, the Bengals are somehow still alive for a playoff spot. The scenarios for the AFC’s 7-seed are pretty straightforward (ties not included):
- The Broncos are in with a win over the Chiefs or losses by the Bengals and the Dolphins.
- The Dolphins are in with a win over the Jets and a Broncos loss.
- The Bengals are in with a win over the Steelers and a Broncos loss and a Dolphins loss.
The Broncos are still the heavy favorites to get in—they’ve got a 64.3 percent chance, according to ESPN’s projections. They are 9.5-point favorites against a Chiefs team that has the no. 1 seed locked up and could be starting Carson Wentz at quarterback and resting other starters. If Denver gets in, fine. They will have earned it. But the Broncos would be huge underdogs to no. 2 seed Buffalo in the wild-card round.
The Dolphins, meanwhile, are 1.5-point favorites against the Jets in Week 18. It’s unclear whether they’ll have Tua Tagovailoa back for that game or whether they’ll be going with Tyler Huntley for the second straight week. Either way, can we all agree (except for you, Dolphins fans!) that we don’t need to see Miami get in? I mean, we’re talking about either Huntley starting a playoff game against Josh Allen, or Tagovailoa at less than 100 percent starting yet another cold-weather playoff game. We just saw that last year. I really don’t need an encore.
But the Bengals? Joe Burrow vs. Allen? Now we’re talking! I know the Bengals defense stinks, but the offense is so, so good. One of my favorite nuggets this time of year is that in the last five seasons, 95 percent of the teams that have played in the conference championship round have had a top-quartile offense in terms of efficiency (DVOA). Right now the Bengals rank fifth in offensive efficiency. The other seven teams in the top quartile would all be in the playoffs if the season ended today. (The only one that hasn’t clinched is the Bucs.) In other words, it is really rare to have an offense as good as Cincinnati’s has been and still miss the playoffs, regardless of all other factors. So as a card-carrying member of Team Content, I’m pulling for a chaotic Week 18 that ends up with Cincinnati getting in. That would make for the juiciest first-round matchup.
The Eagles should sit Saquon Barkley in Week 18.
I’ll admit that initially I thought this was an easy, no-brainer decision. Barkley ran for 167 yards against the Cowboys in Week 17, putting him at 2,005 yards for the season. That means he’s 100 yards away from tying Eric Dickerson’s all-time record and 101 yards away from breaking it. But this Eagles season isn’t about trying to break a rushing record. It’s about trying to win the Super Bowl. They are locked into the no. 2 seed in the NFC, and only the Lions have better odds to get to the Super Bowl. To me, this should be a simple decision for Nick Sirianni: sit Barkley and other starters in Week 18. Take the faux bye and gear up for a playoff run.
But not everyone feels that way. I was watching an interview with receiver A.J. Brown on Sunday, and he said he wants Barkley to get the record so that he can tell his kids one day that he was Barkley’s teammate when he reached the milestone. During Fox’s Packers-Vikings broadcast on Sunday afternoon, Tom Brady said he thought that Barkley should go for it as well. I understand their perspective. Yes, you play to win a championship, but the individual moments still matter. Most years, you don’t hoist the Lombardi, but those seasons still have value—both for players and for fans. Ten or 20 years from now, what will you remember about the 2024 Eagles? Regardless of how this season ends, Barkley’s teammates and fans will look back fondly at what the running back has accomplished. It’s been the defining story line of the Eagles’ season. So I understand why it’s a big deal and why plenty of reasonable people would push for Barkley to go for it. Given the way the NFL has become a passing league over the past 25 years or so, a running back should have no business breaking a rushing record that was set in 1984 during a completely different era.
Having said all that, I’m still on the side of sitting him. Barkley leads the NFL with 378 touches. The Eagles’ bye was way back in Week 5. Going for the record would not only mean playing Barkley, but also playing the starters on the offensive line. Football is a dangerous sport, and there’s always risk of injury. But most of the time, there’s a potential reward: winning, the standings, playoff seeding, etc. In this case, the only reward is the record. If Barkley were to go down with an injury, it would be one of the darkest days in Philadelphia sports history (and there have been many!). I get the appeal of going for it, but it’s simply not worth it.
I think the NFL will have seven head-coaching openings in 2025.
Let’s break them down into three categories:
1. Current openings
- New Orleans Saints: They fired Dennis Allen during the season and replaced him with The Clogger. Unfortunately, it seems unlikely that Darren Rizzi will stay in our lives as a head coach beyond this season. The Saints are directionless. Their goal has seemingly been to try to win nine games every year, but they have now gone four straight seasons without making the playoffs. This is unlikely to be a quick turnaround.
- New York Jets: I don’t think we’ve spent enough time focusing on how badly Woody Johnson’s decision to fire Robert Saleh has backfired. Saleh got fired after a 23-17 loss to the Vikings—a team that is now 14-2 and vying for the top seed in the NFC. The Jets were 2-3 under Saleh and have gone 2-9 since. They are expected to interview Rex Ryan and Ron Rivera for the opening, according to ESPN. I don’t know what else to say to Jets fans other than: I’m sorry.
- Chicago Bears: What doomed their season—the Jayden Daniels Hail Mary in Week 8 or the Thanksgiving Day clock management debacle? Hard to say. But Matt Eberflus is gone. And there should be some excitement for candidates who believe in Caleb Williams’s potential.
2. Likely openings
- Las Vegas Raiders: Mark Davis liked what he saw from Antonio Pierce during his interim stint last season, but really, the players stumping for him might have been more influenced by how much they hated Josh McDaniels than anything else. They’ve gone 4-12 this season, and it’d be a stunner if Pierce were brought back. Given that Tom Brady is part of the ownership team and it seems like he’ll have considerable influence on Davis, could this be the Mike Vrabel landing spot?
- Jacksonville Jaguars: The only surprise here is that Doug Pederson is still coaching the team. There were rumors weeks ago that he would be gone, and that still pretty much seems like a certainty. Since Shad Khan took over as owner, the Jaguars have had the worst winning percentage (.303) in the NFL.
3. Could go either way
- New York Giants: They got to the divisional round in Brian Daboll’s first season in 2022 but have gone downhill ever since. The starting quarterbacks during Daboll’s tenure? Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, Tyrod Taylor, Drew Lock, and Davis Webb. Over the last 10 seasons, only the Jaguars and Jets have had fewer wins than the Giants. Ownership has shown no ability to identify a qualified coach-GM pairing that can get them back on the right track. Given the way last offseason played out on Hard Knocks with the Saquon Barkley situation, it’s hard to see a scenario where the Giants would stick with GM Joe Schoen and replace Daboll. I think either both are gone and they start fresh, or Schoen is replaced but Daboll gets another chance.
- New England Patriots: There have been times this season when I’ve felt like Jerod Mayo has gotten too much criticism. He took over one of the NFL’s least talented teams. Let’s not forget that the Patriots went 4-13 with Bill Belichick last season. So it’s really not about the record. But with coaches, I often like to ask: Where do they give you an edge? And it’s impossible to answer that question with Mayo. The game management has been bad. The defense, where he should shine, has been one of the NFL’s worst. The team is sloppy. And there aren’t many signs that he’s connecting well with players or building a strong culture. It has looked like an obvious case of a guy just not being ready for the head job yet. Having said that, owners don’t always make decisions based on which coach gives them the best chance to win. A lot of times, it’s about who they’re most comfortable with. The Krafts hand-picked Mayo as Belichick’s successor. It looks like they have a franchise quarterback in Drake Maye. Will they be willing to admit a mistake and target someone like Vrabel after just one season of Mayo? Or will the Krafts insist that Mayo was just finding his bearings and is on track to becoming a good coach?
- Tennessee Titans: I feel like Brian Callahan has benefited from Tennessee’s lack of relevance this season. If he were coaching in a bigger market, he’d (deservedly) be getting crushed. The Titans have been terribly coached this year. They are tied for the worst record in the NFL. They have done nothing to develop quarterback Will Levis. And they have the NFL’s worst special teams. Pretty much everything I just wrote about Mayo applies to Callahan. Where is he giving the Titans an edge? One-and-dones are rare, and Titans ownership probably isn’t feeling the public pressure that Patriots ownership is feeling, but there’s certainly a reasonable case for them to try again with a new head coach after what we’ve seen this season.
- Dallas Cowboys: I told you back in mid-November that I thought Jerry Jones was going to keep Mike McCarthy, and guess what: I still feel that way! As I just wrote about the Patriots, owners often prioritize comfort over winning, and I think Jones is comfortable with McCarthy. McCarthy has an incredible PR team. Listen to some of the national reporting, and you’d think he’s a combination of Bill Walsh, Belichick, and Vince Lombardi. I think that if Jones had another coach whom he really liked, he’d make a move. But I don’t see the obvious replacement. I still think the most likely scenario is that McCarthy gets a new contract and returns.
- Indianapolis Colts: If there’s a surprise opening, could this be it? I think it’s unlikely, but possible. Shane Steichen’s team was alive for a playoff berth in Week 17 and suffered one of the most embarrassing losses of the season against the Giants. This season was supposed to be about developing quarterback Anthony Richardson, but that hasn’t happened, and his future in Indianapolis seems murky. Bottom line: The vibes in Indianapolis are terrible. I think Steichen still gets another season, but I’m not certain of it.
All right, so where does that leave us? Five that are already open or seem obvious: Saints, Jets, Bears, Raiders, and Jaguars. Plus, I think we get two more. If I had to guess, I’d say Giants and Patriots. What do you got? Over or under seven?
We have five questions that still need answers in Week 18.
Let’s end with some quick-hitters on what to keep an eye on this weekend.
Who is winning the AFC North?
If the Ravens win or the Steelers lose, the division goes to Baltimore. Pittsburgh needs a win and a Ravens loss to jump back into first place. The Ravens are 17.5(!)-point favorites against the Browns. The Steelers are 1.5-point underdogs against the Bengals.
Who will be the no. 1 seed in the NFC?
The stakes couldn’t be any higher for Vikings-Lions on Sunday night. The winner gets the top seed in the NFC, which means a first-round bye and home field throughout the playoffs. The loser will be the 5-seed and have to win at least two (and probably three) games on the road to get to the Super Bowl.
Who gets the AFC’s last wild-card spot?
Covered this one already! It’ll be the Broncos, Dolphins, or Bengals.
Who is winning the NFC South?
The Bucs need a win or a Falcons loss. The Falcons need a win and a Bucs loss. The Bucs are 13.5-point favorites against the Saints. The Falcons are 7.5-point favorites against the Panthers.
Who is getting the no. 1 pick in the 2025 draft?
The Giants blew it with their win over the Colts last week, dropping from the first pick to the fourth pick. Right now, there are four 3-13 teams: the Patriots, Titans, Browns, and Giants. They would pick in that order if the season ended today, but ESPN projects the Browns to jump the Titans for the second pick after Week 18. If teams are tied, strength of schedule determines order, with the team that has done the worst against worse competition getting the better pick.
