It’s a new year, and we’ve finally reached the end of the NFL regular season.
The journey began with an AFC championship rematch between Kansas City and Baltimore way back in September. Now, 271 games later, the regular season will conclude on Sunday night in a crucial game between Detroit and Minnesota that will determine the NFC North champion and the no. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs.
Twelve of the 14 playoff spots are already clinched. The no. 7 seed in the AFC and the NFC South champion will be decided on Sunday, as Denver and Tampa Bay are in pole position to claim those final two spots. The Broncos are double-digit favorites against the resting Chiefs at home, and the Buccaneers are double-digit favorites against the struggling Saints at home. Losses by Denver or Tampa Bay would open the door for Miami, Cincinnati, and Atlanta.
I’ve previewed all 16 games in Week 18, starting with Saturday’s doubleheader, and I’ve included some bets I’ve already made at the bottom. All lines in the article are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.
Saturday Games
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens (-17.5)
In the two weeks since Dorian Thompson-Robinson became the starter in Cleveland, the offense has a 36.7 percent success rate, which is the second worst in the NFL and 12 percentage points worse than the league average team. He has one touchdown and 10 interceptions in his NFL career and has averaged just 3.7 yards per attempt this year. Given how good Baltimore’s run defense has been all season, the Browns offense will be out of options offensively if it has to consistently drop Thompson-Robinson back in obvious passing situations.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw Bailey Zappe get a chance to play quarterback in relief of Thompson-Robinson if the Cleveland offense looks as inept in Week 18 as it did in the past eight quarters. The Browns faced two defenses worse than Baltimore’s—Cincinnati and Miami— and totaled nine points.
The Browns defense played one of its better games at home in the first matchup with the Ravens, which Cleveland won in a 29-24 upset. But for the season, the Browns are giving up the fourth highest rate of explosive plays in the league. Cleveland is going to give up big plays, and the Ravens are the most efficient team in the league at turning red zone trips into touchdowns.
A massive favorite like Baltimore can be vulnerable if it struggles to generate explosives or fails to convert red zone chances into touchdowns. I don’t expect Baltimore to have issues with either on Saturday. Maybe there’s some back-door risk, but the Ravens are elite front-runners on paper. I’m betting Baltimore to win the first half by multiple scores and have no issues pulling away late, as the Ravens clinch the AFC North and Lamar Jackson solidifies his MVP candidacy.
Verdict: Bet Ravens first half -10.5 and -17.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-1.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers
In the first meeting between these teams on December 1, Cincinnati closed as a -3 home favorite. Throughout the year, the market has consistently viewed the Bengals as a better team than the Steelers, even when Cincinnati was 4-7 and the Steelers were 9-2 at the time of the first matchup.
Despite the Bengals offense’s efficient performance against the Steelers defense, gaining 375 total offensive yards and averaging 6.6 yards per play, the Bengals’ defensive weaknesses were exposed as Pittsburgh had the best offensive game of its season with 520 yards and 7.9 yards per play. Pittsburgh’s ability to generate havoc, especially through its defensive line, was a key factor in its victory, as the Bengals struggled to disrupt the Steelers offense after an early pick-six in the first quarter.
Pittsburgh’s defense ranks 10th in the NFL in havoc rate—a metric for creating negative plays like sacks, tackles for loss, and turnovers, while the Bengals defense ranks 29th in havoc rate.
Despite the Steelers’ recent struggles, it’s worth noting that they were missing key players in their past few games. Additionally, their opponents (Philadelphia, Baltimore, and Kansas City) are considered to be of a higher caliber compared to the Bengals.
For comparison, the Chiefs closed as -2.5 favorites in Pittsburgh on Christmas. The gap between the Chiefs and the Bengals is likely wider than just one point.
Given the premium price bet on Cincinnati here, it may be more favorable to lean toward the Steelers in this game with the expectation of plenty of points being scored.
Verdict: Lean Steelers +1.5
Sunday Games
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons (-7.5)
The Panthers offered almost zero resistance to the high-flying Buccaneers offense in Week 17, and it seems unlikely that star cornerback Jaycee Horn will play in Week 18 after he missed Sunday’s game and then didn’t practice on Wednesday. As much as the Panthers offense has improved through the maturation of Bryce Young as a passer, the defense remains one of the worst in the NFL.
Atlanta’s chances of making the playoffs are very low, given it needs both a win and a Tampa Bay loss to New Orleans. The Falcons should be able to get whatever they want on the ground against Carolina’s porous run defense: The Falcons rank seventh in the league in EPA per rush, and the Panthers are the worst run defense in the NFL. Michael Penix Jr. has had his ups and downs as a passer through two weeks as starter, but it should be easy for the Falcons to dial up deep shots off play-action once they establish early rushing success. Penix is unlikely to face much pressure from an underwhelming Carolina pass rush, and that should help him improve his on-target throw rate. Penix struggled with some misfires on the road against the Commanders on Sunday.
If this line creeps back to -7, I’ll be laying it with the Falcons at home against the league’s worst defense. Otherwise, Atlanta is an excellent teaser option.
Verdict: Lean Falcons -7.5 (-110)
Washington Commanders (-4.5) at Dallas Cowboys
The Cowboys moved the ball well on their first two drives against the Eagles. The first drive ultimately ended with a Cooper Rush pick-six, but Dallas efficiently progressed the ball down the field before that. Dallas followed that opening possession with a 12-play, 70-yard touchdown drive that took six minutes. However, that was pretty much all the offense Dallas could muster in the game.
By the time Dallas managed another drive of at least seven plays, the Eagles were already leading 34-7.
The game highlighted just how limited the Cowboys are offensively without CeeDee Lamb. Brandin Cooks was the leading receiver, with four catches for 52 yards. Although the Cowboys did manage to upset the Commanders in Washington in the first meeting, it’s worth noting that Jayden Daniels was still dealing with a rib injury at that time. The score was 10-9 in favor of Dallas in the fourth quarter of the first meeting before chaos ensued late.
I’m not confident that the Commanders will win by a large margin here, but I do agree with the market movement that saw the total bet down from 45 to 44. This is likely to be a lower-scoring game due to Dallas’s pass rush and offensive limitations.
Verdict: Lean under 44
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-10.5)
Green Bay is motivated to play its starters to win this game. A Packers victory, plus a Commanders loss, would move the Packers out of the seventh seed and prevent them from facing Philadelphia in the opening round of the playoffs. The sixth seed is a more favorable path for them. Green Bay was fortunate to win the first meeting between these two teams in Chicago, but the Bears defense was much stronger then.
The Bears have played four games since firing Matt Eberflus after their Thanksgiving loss to the Lions.
Here are some stats on their performances:
EPA per drive rank: 29th
Defensive EPA per drive rank: 27th
First-half scoring margin: -53 (32nd)
Explosive play differential: -12 (31st)
Green Bay has a clear defensive weakness against passes over the middle of the field, which has cost the Packers in divisional games against Detroit and Minnesota, which accounted for four of their five losses this season. Those teams excel at using the middle of the field, but that is not an area that Chicago can effectively exploit. Much of the Bears passing offense relies on using quick passes to the perimeter.
The Packers are the only team to bet on in this game. I’ll wait to see if the spread reaches 10 points, and if it does, I’ll bet on Green Bay.
Verdict: Lean Packers -10.5
Houston Texans (-1.5) at Tennessee Titans
DeMeco Ryans stated that the Texans will be playing key starters on Sunday. However, it is uncertain how long C.J. Stroud, Nico Collins, and other key players will be on the field in this game.
It would be wise for the Texans to try to establish some offensive rhythm after their poor performance in the Christmas day loss to the Ravens. They were unable to score on offense, continuing their struggles since Tank Dell got injured early in the third quarter against the Chiefs in Week 16. It does not seem logical for their key players to play the entire game, especially since the Texans are likely to play in the opening game of the playoffs next Saturday and are already dealing with injuries in the secondary and at receiver.
The Titans have a 2-14 record against the spread this season, the worst in the Super Bowl era, and I have little faith in their quarterback tandem of Mason Rudolph and Will Levis to make a significant impact.
Verdict: Pass
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts (-5.5)
The Colts defense was badly exposed on Sunday in New York, as Drew Lock posted one of the most efficient passing games in NFL history. Indianapolis’s defense had been performing better before last week, but it’s a defense that generates little havoc and can be exploited by explosive playmakers on the outside. Mac Jones will have time in the pocket on Sunday for the Jaguars, and Brian Thomas Jr. should have a big afternoon to finish off an excellent rookie season. Thomas had five catches for 122 yards and a touchdown in the first meeting.
Now that the Colts’ playoff chances are zero and Anthony Richardson is dealing with a back injury, I expect Joe Flacco to start the season finale on Sunday. That means the Colts are certain to throw the ball more and throw the ball down the field often.
All factors point to this game being sneakily high scoring. The Jaguars defense ranks 31st in explosive play rate allowed and the Colts aren’t much better at 26th. No one should watch this game, but I’m betting on points on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet over 45 (-110)
Buffalo Bills (-2.5) at New England Patriots
Josh Allen is set to start this game in order to maintain his consecutive games played streak, but it appears that the Buffalo starters will play for only one glorified walk-through drive on Sunday. Drake Maye was limited in Wednesday’s practice due to a hand injury, but the Patriots intend to play all of their starters.
Currently, the Patriots hold the no. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft. As with the Giants last week, the organization’s decision-makers may not prioritize winning, but the players on the field will still be giving their best come kickoff on Sunday.
I’m not entirely convinced that the Patriots, at full strength with Maye, should be considered underdogs against a Buffalo team of backups. When these two teams faced off in Orchard Park two weeks ago, New England had two successful drives and took a 14-0 lead against the Bills defense. Although Buffalo managed to come back to win the game, the spread was high then and now it seems to be too favorable toward Buffalo.
There is still a chance that the Patriots may choose not to play Maye. There’s also a possibility that the Patriots make an organizational decision to hold on to the first pick by starting Maye for part of the game, then replacing him with Joe Milton midway through. Due to the uncertainty of playing time for New England’s quarterbacks, I am leaning toward New England.
Verdict: Lean Patriots +2.5
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
The Eagles have decided to rest all of their starters on Sunday. This means that Saquon Barkley will not break Eric Dickerson’s record for rushing yards in a single season. On the one hand, the Eagles probably would have needed to give Barkley 20 carries the week before the playoffs for him to chase the record. That’s definitely not a smart move if you care only about championships. However, I agree with the point raised by my colleague Raheem Palmer on X: Sports are also about fun. Breaking records is fun, and it’s a good way to keep the regular season important. Maybe we should all be more like Dan Campbell.
As for betting thoughts or analysis on this game, I have little to offer. The Eagles usually have a ton of organizational depth in the trenches, but the offensive receiving options after A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are below replacement level. We saw Dak Prescott torch the Eagles’ entire backup secondary in a meaningless Week 18 game in 2022. Can Drew Lock follow up his historic showing?
Verdict: Pass
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-13.5)
There is still a chance that both Alvin Kamara and Derek Carr will return for the Saints in Week 18. The market for this game initially favored Tampa Bay by 14.5 points, but with the potential return of these key players, the spread has dropped to under 14. These two offenses have been moving in opposite directions in the past month.
Tampa Bay ranks second in offensive success rate over the past four games, while New Orleans is second to last. Without more information on the status of Carr and Kamara, it’s difficult to accurately predict the outcome of this game. Tampa Bay only needs a win to secure the NFC South title.
Verdict: Pass
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos (-10.5)
This is the perfect opportunity to bet on the Chiefs. Consider how much the market has shifted here. Denver would have been a home underdog if the Chiefs were fully prepped to take the field. Is the adjustment really nearly two touchdowns? Carson Wentz is a very capable backup quarterback in the NFL. Since 2020, which was Wentz’s final year as a starter in Philadelphia, he ranks 54th out of 77 quarterbacks in EPA + CPOE composite. Wentz’s last year as a starter was a complete disaster, yet he ranks just 15 spots behind Bo Nix, who’s 39th.
Wentz had significant success as a runner last season when the Rams started him in Week 18 after securing a playoff spot in Week 17. He had 17 carries for 56 yards and averaged a respectable 6.8 yards per pass attempt overall.
The market tends to overvalue average teams in Week 18 when they are in a must-win situation and playing against a team with nothing to lose. Denver may win the game, but once the spread is above 10 points, it’s too much.
One troubling trend for Denver: The Broncos have a league-worst -15 explosive play differential in the past three weeks. Denver may dominate, but there are many scenarios in which this game is surprisingly close in the fourth quarter.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs +10.5 (-110)
Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
There’s an important correlated outcome to watch closely for this Sunday’s game. If Pittsburgh beats Cincinnati on Saturday, then the Steelers will secure the fifth seed, making this game meaningless for the Chargers. Currently, there’s a significant difference between the fifth seed and a matchup against the Texans (in which the Chargers would be favored), and the sixth seed and a matchup against the Ravens (in which the Chargers would be significant underdogs). If the Steelers lose and the Chargers can still secure the fifth seed, I anticipate that they’ll play to win and would consider betting on them in this game. That’s only if the Bengals win on Saturday.
This game presents an opportunity to bet on what’s known as a correlated parlay. Parlays are typically not recommended, but in this scenario, a parlay can be a good bet if the outcomes are connected. A Steelers moneyline win would make a Raiders moneyline bet at the current market price a solid wager, as the Chargers may choose to rest Justin Herbert and other key players.
Verdict: Bet a parlay, Steelers ML + Raiders ML (+535)
Seattle Seahawks (-6.5) at Los Angeles Rams
The market initially favored the Rams by two points, but with Sean McVay announcing that none of his key starters will play on Sunday, Seattle has now become a 6.5-point favorite. Seattle quarterback Geno Smith has several performance-based financial incentives at stake, and getting to 10 wins in Mike Macdonald’s first year would be a significant accomplishment—even though the Seahawks won’t make the playoffs.
Jimmy Garoppolo will be starting for the Rams on Sunday, and even though he played for a struggling Raiders team last year, he still managed to average 7.1 yards per attempt. While we don’t know exactly how much the Rams will rest their starters, their roster is top-heavy, so I am not inclined to support their reserves in this game unless the line goes well above seven points.
The window to secure a favorable line for backing Seattle has also closed.
Verdict: Pass
Miami Dolphins (-1.5) at New York Jets
The Dolphins are unlikely to have Tua Tagovailoa for their Week 18 game against the Jets, and Tyler Huntley is preparing to start. I know that supporting the Jets this year has been almost sacrilegious, but even an aging Aaron Rodgers should be favored at home against the Dolphins in this matchup. Miami closed as a 3.5-point favorite on the road against Dorian Thompson-Robinson last week, and as I mentioned earlier, he is considered one of the worst quarterbacks to play in the NFL in the past decade. Rodgers and the Jets are at least two points better than the current Browns.
Miami is overrated by the market in this must-win situation. There wasn’t much to like about the Dolphins offense last week. The Dolphins were 2-of-12 on third and fourth down conversions, Huntley was their leading rusher, and they averaged only 4.9 yards per play.
They did manage to score 20 points, but that was largely due to Cleveland going for it inside its own 20-yard line and giving Miami a short field. With temperatures predicted to be in the 30s and wind speeds above 10 mph, it won’t be ideal conditions for Miami’s offense either.
Verdict: Bet Jets ML (+100)
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals (-4.5)
Josh Dobbs will start for the 49ers in place of the injured Brock Purdy, providing another opportunity for the backup quarterback who briefly captured our hearts last season. Dobbs brings value with his running ability, a dimension that Kyle Shanahan has rarely had from the quarterback position in recent years.
The Cardinals covered the spread against the Rams on Saturday and arguably should have won that game based on the underlying box score. There was a noticeable market adjustment downward for the 49ers from Purdy to Dobbs, as anticipated. The question you have to consider in this game is just how much of the 49ers’ success last week was due to the Lions’ defensive struggles.
This Week 18 game seems insignificant and not worth betting on.
Verdict: Pass
Sunday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)
Game 272 of the NFL season may end up being one of the most critical matchups of the entire season. Given the current state of the Lions defense, avoiding a wild-card road game feels extremely crucial. The Lions will probably need to score 35 points to win any postseason game at this point, and this one may as well be the equivalent of a postseason game.
The difference in championship title odds will likely swing wildly depending on the outcome of this game. I bet the Lions -3.5 last Monday night and felt pretty lucky that they covered the spread in that game.
Since the slew of injuries it suffered on Thanksgiving against the Bears, Detroit ranks 32nd in EPA per drive allowed. It’s not a fluke, either—they are 29th in success rate, 31st in explosive play rate allowed, and 16th in pressure rate. The secondary isn’t holding up against premier passing offenses like Green Bay, Buffalo, and San Francisco. The biggest red flag is perhaps the game against the Bears, when even in defeat, the anemic Bears offense moved the ball consistently.
As a result of the Week 17 games, the total for this game moved from 53.5 all the way up to 57. It is the highest total of the NFL season. But like Lions-Packers and Lions-Bills, you really can’t make these totals high enough. Both offenses are top 10 in red zone efficiency and top five in explosive play rate.
Ultimately, which defense do you trust more to get stops? The answer has to be Brian Flores and Minnesota right now. Even if Detroit is the marginally superior offense, there’s no way I could lay points with the Lions given the current state of the defense.
I’ll be waiting all week for the opportunity to bet Minnesota as a three-point dog, but I especially like their team total over 27.5 points. The Vikings’ wide receiver talent should exploit a Detroit secondary that is now among one of the league’s worst.
Verdict: Bet Vikings team total over 27.5 points (-105)
Bets I’ve made for Week 18:
Ravens first half -10.5 (-110)
Ravens -17.5 (-110)
Chiefs +10.5 (-110)
Vikings team total over 27.5 (-105)
Jets moneyline (+100)
Steelers ML + Raiders ML correlated parlay (+535)
