What to Watch in Each College Football Playoff Semifinal
As Penn State and Notre Dame face off in the Orange Bowl and Texas and Ohio State meet in the Cotton Bowl, these are the players and matchups to watch
The inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff field is down to its final four. Will Ohio State’s freshman phenom receiver, Jeremiah Smith, continue his red-hot postseason run? Can James Franklin finally get his Penn State team to win a game when the stakes are the highest? Will Notre Dame quarterback Riley Leonard come through as a passer and not just a running threat? Here’s what to watch for in each of the semifinal games.
Orange Bowl: No. 6 Penn State Vs. No. 7 Notre Dame (-1.5)
What to watch: Will either passing game have enough answers to keep the opposing defense honest?
Stylistically, Penn State vs. Notre Dame makes for exactly the kind of matchup you’d want with stakes this high. Both teams pride themselves on controlling the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, and we can expect brutal physicality on every handoff. But beyond that, it’s hard to know what to expect in this game. On one hand, Notre Dame hasn’t played any teams that are nearly as talented as Penn State. On the other, under James Franklin, Penn State has historically struggled against championship-caliber competition.
Neither team’s offense has been particularly effective in the passing game thus far in the playoffs. Nittany Lions quarterback Drew Allar has taken leaps forward as a passer this season, but he remains robotic in the pocket, and his seeming desire to throw every ball at 100 miles per hour makes his accuracy erratic, particularly on throws to the middle of the field and when he has to work the ball into tight windows. When plays haven’t been designed to get tight end Tyler Warren a target against an overmatched safety or linebacker, Penn State has struggled to generate explosive offense against high-quality secondaries this season. If Notre Dame safety Xavier Watts can play Warren to a draw when they’re matched up against each other on Thursday night, that could spell serious issues for Penn State.
Notre Dame’s defense has done an excellent job of forcing opposing offenses to play outside of their comfort zones this season. We should expect Marcus Freeman’s team to play man coverage on Thursday, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Irish send a healthy serving of blitzes and stunts at Allar, challenging him to throw in the face of pressure or use his mobility to extend plays.
As for quarterback Riley Leonard, Notre Dame seems to do everything it can to keep him out of high-leverage passing situations. I viewed Leonard as a sleeper NFL draft prospect when I first started scouting him a few seasons ago, but his profile as a passer hasn’t developed nearly as much as it should have given his raw talent. Leonard’s pocket presence is inconsistent, and he’s prone to dropping his eyes and throwing the ball with poor mechanics when he’s pressured or attempting to throw on the move. He reminds me a lot of Jalen Hurts in his college days at Alabama and Oklahoma, and that means Leonard will have to use his legs to keep Penn State’s defense off balance. The threat of Leonard scrambling may keep edge rusher Abdul Carter from flying into the backfield too often, which would help this Notre Dame offensive line out.
The pick: Notre Dame finally has a likable team and coach, and it pays off with a chance at a national title, 23-20.
Cotton Bowl: No. 5 Texas Vs. No. 8 Ohio State (-5.5)
What to watch: Is there anything Texas can do to slow down Ohio State receiver Jeremiah Smith and this juggernaut Buckeyes offense?
It’s hard to watch Texas’s defensive struggles against Arizona State last week juxtaposed with Ohio State’s thrashing of Oregon and find winning edges for the Longhorns in this semifinal. The Buckeyes’ offensive line has steadied itself in these playoffs, and the passing game has exploded as a result, with a combined 636 passing yards and five passing touchdowns against Oregon and Tennessee.
If Texas is still looking for ways to stop OSU’s all-world freshman receiver, Jeremiah Smith, it can stop now. There’s nothing anyone in college football can do against a receiver this big and fast. He’s reminiscent of Julio Jones and A.J. Green at their collegiate apexes—and Smith is just 19 years old. He can win over the top and on the perimeter just about whenever he wants, and Ohio State’s offensive coordinator, Chip Kelly, is moving Smith around the formation pre-snap to keep defenses from shading too much help over the top.
The Longhorns’ passive defensive approach against Arizona State in the quarterfinals nearly cost them a spot in the semifinals, and they can’t carry that same approach into this game. Arizona State’s offense ran 97 plays, due in large part to Texas’s inability to make plays in the backfield and blow plays up early. Texas edge rusher Colin Simmons needs to make his presence felt on every snap, and he can’t do that if Texas is playing only odd fronts and sending four rushers. Texas’s defense will have to blitz and force the Buckeyes to trust quarterback Will Howard in obvious passing situations.
For all the problems the Buckeyes can give the Texas defense, the other side of the ball may actually be the bigger mismatch in Ohio State’s favor. Texas’s offensive line has struggled to control the line of scrimmage in the run game and to pick up pressure when quarterback Quinn Ewers goes into pass mode. Ohio State doesn’t have elite athletes in its defensive front, but this Buckeyes front four might be the best collective group in college football when everyone is at their best, as they have been thus far in the playoffs. This is a veteran group, and that experience is paying huge dividends this postseason.
Longhorns head coach Steve Sarkisian will have to call his best game, using screens, play-action passes, and changes in tempo to keep that Ohio State defensive front off balance—because if Texas allows Buckeyes star rushers Jack Sawyer and JT Tuimoloau to pin their ears back, it would spell doom for this Texas offensive line and Ewers, who struggles to navigate when pressured because of his slight build and lack of agility.
If Texas’s receivers can manufacture some explosive offense by breaking tackles and picking up yards after the catch, perhaps the Longhorns could make this game a shoot-out—that’s their best chance to hang around and upset an Ohio State team that looks as unstoppable as any team we’ve seen in the playoff era.
The pick: Ultimately, I can’t see Texas doing enough on the ground to control the flow of this game, and Ohio State should cruise in the second half to win, 37-24.
