It’s the most wonderful time of the year for football fans. Not only do the NFL playoffs begin on Saturday for the wild-card weekend, but the College Football Playoff semifinals are set for Thursday and Friday night.
Fans are gearing up for five straight days of high-leverage football. Most importantly, no more watching the Giants, Jets, Browns, Colts, and other bad teams. It’s time to get down to the business end of the season.
There are three quarterbacks making their playoff debuts on wild-card weekend. Bo Nix, Jayden Daniels, and Sam Darnold are all facing quarterbacks with more playoff experience. In the past, it’s been wise to doubt these playoff rookies. Since 2002, first-time quarterbacks are 19-37-1 against the spread and 19-38 straight up. Last season, we saw Jordan Love and C.J. Stroud win as underdogs, while Tua Tagovailoa and Mason Rudolph failed to win or cover the spread.
All three of this year’s first-time quarterbacks are on the road in the first round, and while Darnold is a small favorite, the other two are underdogs. Here are my thoughts on all six wild-card games, including some prop, spread, and total bets I’ve made. All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.
Saturday Games
Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Houston Texans
The Texans have again repeated as AFC South champions and are again priced as home underdogs in the opening game of the NFL playoffs. The 4:30 p.m. ET early slot on Saturday often feels like the AFC South invitational, with the Texans playing in this game for the eighth time since 2011.
Last year, Houston entered the playoffs with a dynamic offense and a rookie quarterback performing at a high level. This year, the Texans are anything but that. The offense has struggled so much that head coach DeMeco Ryans opted to play his starters for a series in an entirely meaningless game against the Titans in Week 18 just to generate some rhythm and sort issues out ahead of the opening-round game. Two weeks ago, the entire country watched their offense get shut out on Christmas in a 31-2 defeat to the Ravens.
The Texans have encountered numerous two-high defensive looks this season and they’ve struggled to efficiently move the ball against it. Houston’s offense relies heavily on explosive plays, usually from Stroud to Nico Collins. Without those, the offense is among the league’s worst on a play-to-play basis. Houston has seen the second-highest rate of Cover 2 in the NFL, and the offense ranks 31st in overall success rate on all plays.
Under defensive coordinator Jesse Minter, the Chargers are built to take away explosives and frequently keep two high safeties. The defense ranks eighth in explosive play rate allowed and they usually force teams to be methodical and patient in running the football. In some ways, that’s a good trap to set against Houston’s offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik.
Both of these offenses are at their worst when they run the ball too much on early downs. The Texans have the lowest early-down success rate on run plays in the NFL, and the Chargers are second worst. The more these two offensive coordinators go “run, run, pass,” the more opposing defenses have an advantage.
These two offenses rank in the bottom seven in close game pace. The game has all the makings of a slow-paced matchup with a lot of inefficient running by both teams. Ultimately, Justin Herbert is playing at a much higher level than Stroud, and that will be the difference. Houston is one of the five most penalized teams in the NFL, while the Chargers are among the six least penalized. Stroud has a 14.4 percent sack rate on third down, and the Chargers defense is seventh in expected points added on third down.
With the Texans facing a lot of two-high shells, I expect Joe Mixon to be a bigger factor in the receiving game as Stroud is forced to check the ball down underneath.
In all the high-leverage spots, I trust the Chargers way more to execute. That may have been a wild sentence to write in past seasons, but it was very true in 2024 and should continue into 2025.
I’ve said all year in this column that I planned to bet against the Texans in the wild-card round, and I’m sticking to that strategy.
Verdict: Bet Chargers -2.5 (-115)
Props: Mixon over 2.5 receptions (+125) and over 19.5 receiving yards (-110)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-9.5)
The betting market has seen one-sided action on both Baltimore and the under all week as bettors continue to doubt the abilities of the Steelers offense against an improved Baltimore defense. The market opened with Baltimore as a 7.5-point favorite with a total of 46.5 on Sunday when this matchup was confirmed. As of Thursday, some books have the Ravens as high as -10 with a total of 43.5.
When these two teams played in Week 16, Baltimore closed as a 7-point favorite with a total of 44.5. The Steelers offense has seen a clear and continued downgrade over the past month. It’s one thing for the Steelers to struggle in road games against the Eagles and Ravens without wide receiver George Pickens. But even with Pickens in the lineup at home in Week 18 against a bad Cincinnati defense, the Steelers averaged 3.3 yards per play and produced 193 total yards.
The Ravens’ elite run defense puts Pittsburgh in a difficult spot on every possession. The Steelers have the fourth-highest rate of early-down runs in the NFL, and in two meetings with Baltimore, they’ve been unable to efficiently establish the run. The Ravens rank third in EPA allowed per designed run.
In their first meeting, Pittsburgh ran the ball 34 times for 3.6 yards per carry in an 18-16 win at home. The Steelers had six field goals. Russell Wilson had some high-leverage scrambles in the second meeting, but neither Jaylen Warren nor Najee Harris had consistent success on traditional handoffs.
Pittsburgh is likely to find itself in a lot of third-and-long situations if it continues to run heavily on early downs in an attempt to shorten the game. Early in the season, the Steelers could rely on just enough explosive plays per game to keep the offense viable. Those sideline isolation deep balls to Pickens and others have dried up considerably, even in the two weeks since he returned from injury.
It’s also much tougher to complete deep passes against the Ravens secondary. Since Baltimore decided to play Kyle Hamilton at safety exclusively in Week 11, Baltimore ranks third in the NFL in EPA allowed per dropback on passes of 20-plus air yards. It’s been part of a turnaround for the entire defense.
Baltimore EPA per dropback allowed
Weeks 1-10: -0.19 (30th)
Weeks 11-18: +0.15 (1st)
There are absolutely some schedule effects impacting these defensive numbers for Baltimore. The Ravens faced a much tougher slate of quarterbacks and offenses in the first 10 weeks—Patrick Mahomes, Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow (twice), Josh Allen, Baker Mayfield—than it has since. We’ll see just how improved the Baltimore secondary is against more elite offenses and quarterbacks, but I don’t think it will matter much in this game against a limited Pittsburgh offense.
The Steelers have won seven of nine in this rivalry since 2020 without scoring more than 20 points in a single game. All reporting in the lead-up to this game suggests that Ravens wideout Zay Flowers is a “long shot” to play on Saturday after suffering a knee injury in the Week 18 win against the Browns.
Flowers is a top-20 receiver this season by yards per route run. Lamar Jackson holds the ball as long as any quarterback in the NFL and maintains elite sack avoidance because of his extraordinary escapability. The Ravens finished the season no. 1 in yards per drive and are sure to lean even more heavily on Derrick Henry without Flowers. Pittsburgh’s run defense has been just mediocre in the second half of the season.
The passing game will take a hit without Flowers, though, and Baltimore’s struggles in third-down passing is the path where Pittsburgh keeps this game closer than the market anticipates.
If you take out the pick-six from Wilson in the last meeting in Baltimore, the game would have ended 27-17 Ravens. The market is expecting a repeat of that game here, and I see little in the underlying numbers to suggest anything different. The Steelers are traditionally excellent at dragging teams into the mud with them—it’s why Mike Tomlin has such a great record as an underdog—and they’ve had a ton of success at doing exactly that in this rivalry.
The Pittsburgh secondary will be a lot healthier with safety Donte Jackson and corners DeShon Elliott and Joey Porter Jr. available (all three missed all or most of the last matchup with injuries). Thus, I think this game will be much lower-scoring than the last meeting.
Verdict: Bet under 43.5 points (-110)
Props: Derrick Henry over 98.5 rush yards (-112)
Sunday Games
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5)
I’m basically disregarding everything that the Bills have done offensively in their last three games. Josh Allen hinted that Buffalo was saving stuff for the playoffs after their shaky home win against the Patriots, and the last two games against the Jets and Patriots were glorified exhibitions. The Bills have typically unleashed Allen as a scrambler and a runner in the high-leverage games, turning a very good offense into a powerhouse.
The Broncos defense prefers to apply pressure and play man coverage behind it. I doubt how effective this strategy will be against Allen, who has excelled against both man coverage and the blitz this season. When blitzed, Allen has averaged 8 yards per attempt, thrown 16 touchdowns, and just two interceptions. He has 12 big-time throws to one turnover-worthy play.
Even though the Bills lack an elite receiver, the offense ranks fifth in EPA per dropback against man coverage.
I acknowledge that Denver is one of the league’s top four defenses by DVOA, but there have been enough concerning games from the secondary to question just how elite the unit really is. As always, so much of elite defense is opponent-driven. Herbert had his way in both Chargers-Broncos games. Burrow led Cincinnati to 30 points and threw for 412 yards against Denver. Lamar Jackson’s offense scored 41 points. Jameis Winston put up 32 points and 497 yards against them on Monday Night Football.
If Buffalo takes the lead in this game, how will Bo Nix respond on the road in his first playoff start? Nix struggled against the heavy zone defenses of the Colts and Chargers. The Broncos offense is 20th in EPA per dropback against zone this year (excluding Week 18 vs. the Chiefs’ backups).
Nix should find success using his legs in this game if the Broncos fall behind. It’s been a consistent source of offense for the Broncos. If Denver can play from the front, run the ball, and have long, methodical drives, this game could be shortened and remain close.
But there’s significant potential for Denver to struggle. Facing a zone-heavy defense designed to limit big plays, target the Broncos running backs’ receiving props and Nix in the run game.
Verdict: Lean Bills -9
Props: Bo Nix over 24.5 rush yards (-110), Josh Allen over 39.5 rush yards (-110)
Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-4.5)
The betting market opened with the Eagles as a 3.5-point favorite on Sunday night. After one-way action that pushed Philadelphia out to -5.5, we’ve seen money come back on Green Bay to settle on the Eagles as 4.5-point favorites. Both teams have been coy about the availability of their starting quarterbacks, but I expect this is just a bit of gamesmanship. I wouldn’t be concerned about the status of Jordan Love or Jalen Hurts, and do expect Hurts to clear concussion protocol on Thursday.
The Packers will be without Christian Watson, who before he tore his ACL was the Packers’ most reliable receiver. He finished 16th in the NFL in yards per route run among qualified receivers and is the most explosive player on the offense.
These two teams met in Week 1, but with two new defensive coordinators and a slippery field in Brazil, I don’t think we learned much from that meeting. The Eagles were quite shaky defensively prior to the bye. Since Week 6, you could argue they are the league’s best defense.
The emergence of Zack Baun at linebacker and Cooper DeJean at slot corner has helped solidify the Eagles’ ability to cover the middle of the field. The defense is no. 1 in EPA per drive allowed since Week 6. Vic Fangio’s group has matured well, and the key matchup is the Packers’ offensive explosiveness against the Eagles’ ability to prevent big plays.
If you put a roof over the top of the Green Bay offense, they haven’t been nearly as efficient this year. Since Week 6, the Eagles have allowed the lowest explosive play rate in the league. Green Bay is in the top five offensively in explosive play rate in that time frame, but without Watson, they’ll need to be more methodical.
When you watch this game Sunday afternoon, expect to see a ton of early running. The Packers and Eagles rank first and third in the NFL in first-half rush rate.
The Eagles have struggled to score early in games for the majority of the season. Philadelphia’s first-quarter offense is 25th in EPA per play, compared to fourth in the remainder of the game. The Packers offense has performed better on script, and I rate Matt LaFleur as a considerably better offensive game planner than both Nick Sirianni and Kellen Moore. Add in that Hurts hasn’t played competitive football in a month and missed two weeks of practice due to a concussion, and I think Green Bay can play this game closer to a toss-up in the first half.
I bet Green Bay +3 first half (-120).
After halftime, the Eagles’ talent advantage and ability to generate more big plays could show itself.
The key for the Eagles offense is whether Hurts can exploit the Packers over the middle of the field. We’ve seen Detroit and Minnesota expose Green Bay’s zone coverage over the middle in all four meetings this season. Those two offenses are well schemed to use that area, but the Eagles use the middle of the field in the passing game as little as any team in the league.
Green Bay is a zone-heavy defense, and the Eagles have turned to DeVonta Smith as their zone buster all season. While A.J. Brown is the league’s best receiver against man coverage, Smith has more total targets (57) than Brown (54) when teams play zone. This was evident especially in the Steelers game for the Eagles, so I’ll be targeting Smith props as well.
Yards per route run vs. man coverage
DeVonta Smith: 1.86
A.J. Brown: 4.27Yards per route run vs. zone coverage
Smith: 2.32
Brown: 2.54
Verdict: Bet Green Bay first half +3 (-120)
Props: DeVonta Smith over 5.5 receptions +105, over 60.5 yards (-110)
Sunday Night Football
Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3)
If we were drafting only quarterbacks for the NFC playoffs, I believe I would choose Jayden Daniels over everyone else. It’s close, but Daniels has led a makeshift offensive line and one good receiver to elite overall offensive production throughout the season. The Commanders finished the season fourth in EPA per drive, and Daniels had one of the highest rookie success rates ever.
But when you look around at the rest of the roster, it’s hard to see these two teams on the same level. The Commanders had the lowest strength of schedule (.436) of any team that made the playoffs. They also had one of the three lowest strength-of-victory records, with their best win being at home against the Eagles, who played with backup Kenny Pickett for the majority of the game after Jalen Hurts left with a concussion.
That victory against the Eagles was the Commanders’ only win against a playoff team all season—they lost to Philadelphia in their first meeting and had losses against Baltimore, Pittsburgh, and Tampa Bay. Much of Washington’s offense relies on running the ball on early downs, which will be difficult against the Bucs defense. The Commanders have the seventh-highest rate of running the ball on early downs, while Tampa Bay ranks second in early-down rush defense.
We know that Todd Bowles will likely blitz Daniels frequently. While Daniels may find success using his legs, it will be challenging to move the ball against the Bucs secondary, especially with star safety Antoine Winfield Jr. back in the lineup.
Offensively, Washington has been extremely efficient on fourth downs this season; this game is likely to be decided in the red zone. If the Commanders struggle to run the ball and Daniels’s legs are not enough to score touchdowns, they may face field goals or turnovers on downs.
Tampa Bay’s offense, like Washington’s, has impressive efficiency numbers but has faced weak opposing defenses. The Bucs and Commanders went up against the 28th and 29th opposing defensive schedule strength, respectively. The return of Marshon Lattimore should provide an exciting matchup against Mike Evans and help bolster the Commanders secondary. Plus, the emergence of the Tampa Bay rushing offense adds another dimension to the game.
Bucky Irving has taken over the workload from Rachaad White, making the run offense more explosive. The Eagles bullied the Commanders with explosive runs, and the Bucs should be able to replicate some of that success, controlling the game and maintaining an advantage.
Verdict: Bet Tampa Bay -3 (-110).
Props: Daniels over 8.5 rushing attempts, Daniels over 48.5 rush yards, Daniels over 14.5 yards on longest rush
Monday Night Football
Minnesota Vikings at Los Angeles Rams (+1.5)
Sam Darnold had one of the worst games of his career against the aggressive man-to-man coverage and constant blitzing from the Lions in the regular-season finale. The Vikings were horrendous on third down and in the red zone, resulting in only nine total points scored. The Rams present an entirely different defensive matchup for Darnold and Minnesota, as they play a lot more zone and don’t blitz as frequently.
Darnold will have time to throw in the pocket, and the Rams struggle to defend deep passes. On the other side, the Vikings defense is elite at generating havoc, but it is below average in explosive play rate allowed.
Note: There’s still a chance that this game could be moved out of SoFi Stadium due to ongoing wildfires in Los Angeles. If it does get moved, all bets placed prior to the move would be void. The line would reopen with Minnesota around a three-point favorite on a neutral field in Arizona.
The Vikings like to bring extra pressure and hassle the opposing quarterback, but Matthew Stafford has excelled against the blitz this season. He’s averaged 8.4 yards per attempt, with a better completion percentage than when he’s not blitzed. The Rams caught Minnesota in a great spot in the last meeting: on a short week off a game against the Lions.
As bad as the Rams offense looked in Stafford’s final three weeks of the season, a week off for the key players and extra time for Sean McVay to get in the lab should produce offensive results.
If I had to pick a winner, I think I’d trust Stafford to execute more in the fourth quarter of a close game. But the NFC North’s playoff teams have dominated the rest of the NFL all season long in non-division games. Green Bay, Detroit, and Minnesota have a combined total of 11 losses, with six of them coming in games against each other. Outside of those matchups, those teams were 34-5 this season.
Verdict: Bet over 47.5 points.
Prop: Aaron Jones over 48.5 rush yards
Bets from this article made for wild-card weekend:
Chargers -2.5 vs. Texans (-110)
Packers first half +3 vs. Eagles (-115)
Buccaneers -3 vs. Commanders
Vikings-Rams over 46.5
Ravens-Steelers under 43.5 (-110)
Matchup-based props:
Joe Mixon over 19.5 receiving yards (-110)
Derrick Henry over 98.5 rush yards (-110)
Josh Allen over 39.5 rush yards (-110)
Bo Nix over 24.5 rush yards (-110)
Aaron Jones over 48.5 rush yards (-110)
Jayden Daniels over 8.5 rush attempts, 48.5 rush yards
DeVonta Smith over 5.5 receptions (+105)
