The NFL postseason begins on Saturday, and it promises an epic first weekend with six games across three days. But who will reign supreme? Can the Minnesota Vikings find their offensive firepower? Will a returning Jalen Hurts lead the Eagles over the 7-seed Packers? And which AFC teams have the best chance of making a run through the playoffs and winning it all? The Ringer’s NFL staffers make their playoff picks below.
Nora Princiotti: Nothing comes back stronger than a ’90s trend, but you’d be easily forgiven if the Bills weren’t your preseason Super Bowl pick. This was supposed to be more of a reset year for Buffalo, but then Josh Allen pulled off an MVP-caliber season, and a flourishing offensive line and developing youngsters like Keon Coleman, Dalton Kincaid, and Ray Davis helped the Bills remain contenders. Buffalo has scored more points than any other team in the AFC this season, and the combination of Allen’s talents as a passer and running threat and the ground game they’ve finally established after years of trying means there are no easy answers for defenses facing this team. No one—especially no one in Buffalo—will take anything for granted in the playoffs, particularly given the likelihood that this team will need to beat both the Ravens and the Chiefs to get to the Super Bowl. The Bills are not a perfect team. Their secondary, especially, can be a liability. But they’ve gone big-game hunting this season with wins against the Chiefs and the Lions (though I have them missing a rematch with the latter thanks to upset wins by Green Bay). And this just feels like Buffalo’s year.
Sheil Kapadia: Three reasons I’m going with the Lions: One, I think they have the most trustworthy offense in the NFL. They’ve been decimated by injuries on defense, but the offense is mostly healthy. I love the scheme. I love the play calling. I love the offensive line. And I love how everything fits together. It’s hard for me to imagine a scenario where the Lions struggle to score points. For a possession? For a quarter? Sure. But for a whole game? I don’t see it. Two, I think they have the friendliest path of any playoff team. I’m not saying it’ll be easy, but the way I’ve mapped it out, the Lions get a first-round bye and then welcome the Commanders in the divisional round before they face the Eagles or Vikings in the NFC championship game. The NFC has very good teams, but it doesn’t have Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen. I think that’s a huge advantage. And three, I know Dan Campbell will go for it. Some of you might think he’s a reckless maniac (OK, there is something to that). But he won’t coach scared. When the Lions have a chance to put teams away with their juggernaut offense, Campbell will go for the kill. I can’t help but appreciate that approach. Is there a chance that the Lions simply can’t overcome the injuries on defense? Of course. But I was encouraged by their Week 18 performance against the Vikings and think they might have just enough. They’ve been a great team all season long, and the bottom line is I think it’s the Lions’ time.
Steven Ruiz: The Ravens have been my pick to win the Super Bowl throughout the season, and I’m not switching it up now. Potential trips to Buffalo and Kansas City in back-to-back weeks would have broken past versions of this Baltimore team, but with Derrick Henry now in tow, they’re no longer a one-man show on offense. The defense has gotten its act together over the past month or so and is playing at an elite level, and the offensive line is no longer committing penalties at a problematic rate. This is the most complete Ravens team Lamar Jackson has led into the postseason, and he’s playing the best ball of his career. I believe whichever team makes it out of the AFC will win the Lombardi Trophy, and Baltimore is my pick to come out of the Chiefs-Bills-Ravens gauntlet.
Diante Lee: It's nice to be a newer face around The Ringer. I don't have to carry the shame and embarrassment of picking Baltimore over Kansas City in 2023, and I get to have my own turn to doubt Patrick Mahomes in earnest. The Ravens come into the playoffs with the most talented roster in the AFC, quarterback Lamar Jackson operating at the peak of his powers, and arguably the best defense in the NFL over the last two months of the season. That was all true when Baltimore fell short last season, but in Derrick Henry, the team finally has a player who can take the burden off of Jackson in the playoffs. Henry can tilt the balance of a game on his own, and his presence makes Jackson a more valuable runner and passer. That duo should be enough to slay the dragon at Arrowhead Stadium and meet up with Philadelphia, who’ll get to New Orleans thanks to the matchup problems they pose for each of the NFC's top teams. Super Bowl 59 will put a bow on a year marked by excellent running backs (with Henry vs. Saquon Barkley), and it’ll be capped off by Jackson silencing his playoff doubters for good.
Danny Heifetz: The odds are against Detroit. Most Super Bowl participants have 20 or 21 of their preferred 22 starters available. Detroit has a baker’s dozen defenders who are injured. Most seasons, I look at the handful of best teams to make the postseason and I pick the healthiest good one (usually the Chiefs) to win it all. This season, I don’t care.
I have become cynical as I’ve gotten older, but the Lions have paused that process. They are fun. They are fast. They are physical. They play and coach without fear. Aesthetically, they are a perfect football team. Emotionally, I find them inspiring. They practice what they preach. I listen to Dan Campbell, the meathead Ted Lasso, speak and I want to run through a wall. As Lions cornerback Amik Robertson said after getting a game ball in the locker room in Week 18, “You can’t bury what comes from the dirt.” How could I pick anyone else?
Danny Kelly: Josh Allen is the favorite to win the MVP award and Joe Burrow had an all-time statistical season, but I don’t think any quarterback is playing a more dominant style of football right now than Lamar Jackson. A two-time MVP at 28 years old, Jackson ascended to a level we’ve never seen from him before this season, finishing with a ridiculous 41 touchdown passes and just four picks, leading all qualified quarterbacks in yards per pass attempt (8.8), and ranking first among players with 100-plus carries in yards per rush attempt (6.6). Lamar’s got Derrick Henry by his side, a bevy of talented pass catchers to throw to, and a resurgent defense on his side. It’s not going to be an easy road for Baltimore as the 3-seed, but no team has more ways to beat you.
Lindsay Jones: Look, there are a million reasons to say that this Chiefs team won’t win the Super Bowl after their very weird 15-2 regular season. But there’s one very important reason why they might, and his name is Patrick Mahomes. Other quarterbacks played better than Mahomes this season, and other offenses were more fun to watch than the Chiefs, and there are far more complete teams than Kansas City. But I’m not picking against Mahomes as a 1-seed this time.
Austin Gayle: There’s actually less of a reason to doubt the Chiefs this year than there was last January when the Bills, Ravens, and 49ers all had better paths to the Lombardi Trophy. I was the only staffer at The Ringer who picked the Chiefs to win it all after the 2023 season, and I still can’t fade Mahomes regardless of how easy it is to find reasons to bet against his team. Travis Kelce is coming off easily the worst statistical season of his NFL career, and Kansas City’s second-best pass-catcher during their playoff run a year ago, wide receiver Rashee Rice, is out for this year’s Super Bowl run with a torn LCL. Mahomes is also coming off a down season relative to his early-career success, averaging a career-low 6.8 yards per attempt and throwing for just 26 touchdowns and 11 picks. This was Mahomes’s worst regular season in terms of success rate and EPA per dropback since… last year, when he went on to win the Super Bowl.
But despite all the negatives, the Chiefs starters will play their first game coming off 24 (!) days of rest—having locked up a first-round bye early and sitting players in Week 18. Kansas City will also benefit from the fact that, if the chalk holds, either the Buffalo Bills or the Baltimore Ravens will be out of the postseason before they ever come to Arrowhead.
