The divisional-round weekend of the NFL playoffs is widely regarded as the best football weekend of the year.
With the final eight NFL teams facing off, plus the College Football Playoff national championship between Ohio State and Notre Dame set for Monday night, football fans are blessed with five games across three days of high-stakes action. After five of the six games on wild-card weekend underwhelmed from a drama perspective, the divisional round will hopefully make up for it with doubleheaders on Saturday and Sunday.
In C.J. Stroud’s second season, the Texans are looking to go at least one step further than last year. The Chiefs are chasing a record-breaking three-peat. Rookie sensation Jayden Daniels and the Commanders are riding a wave of last-second wins. The Lions are on a quest for the franchise’s first Super Bowl appearance. The two MVP cofavorites, Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen, will close the weekend on CBS. Let’s set aside the story lines for a moment and focus on the matchups.
Here are my thoughts on all four divisional-round games, including some prop, spread, and total bets I’ve made. All lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning.
Saturday Games
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs (-8.5)
This is a rematch of a Week 16 game in which the Chiefs closed as 3.5-point favorites at Arrowhead. The market has massively downgraded the Texans, evident in the wild-card round when they closed as three-point underdogs at home to the Chargers. This trend has continued into the divisional round. Even if you bump Kansas City up a point or two because the Chiefs had two weeks off to get healthy and rest all of their starters, it’s hard to justify betting on the Chiefs at this spread. I’ve been as skeptical of the Texans as anyone who discusses football on any platform, and the highest line I’d bet against the spread is Kansas City -7.
Kansas City has been favored by six or more points seven times this season. The Chiefs won all seven games outright but failed to cover the spread every time.
- -6.5 vs. Cincinnati, won by 1
- -7 vs. L.A. Chargers, won by 7 (push)
- -9 vs. Las Vegas, won by 7
- -9 vs. Tampa Bay, won by 6 in OT
- -7 vs. Denver, won by 2
- -10.5 vs. Carolina, won by 3
- -13.5 vs. Las Vegas, won by 2
The Chiefs’ pass defense was vulnerable for most of the second half of the season following an injury to Jaylen Watson, their second-best corner. Watson is expected to return for this game, and the Texans don’t have a reliable second receiver after the elite Nico Collins. Schematically, the Chiefs also have a very different defense than the Chargers. While Los Angeles is the most zone-heavy defense in the NFL, the Chiefs predominantly play man coverage. Kansas City played the ninth-lowest rate of zone defense in the league. In Houston’s matchup with L.A., Stroud was able to execute the quick passing game from the second quarter on to move the ball and get it out quickly. That worked against the Chargers’ zone coverage indoors, but repeating that against the interior pressure the Chiefs can generate outdoors in cold weather will prove much more difficult.
The Texans have one elite receiver and separator against man coverage in Collins and not much else. They lost Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, and Cade Stover to injuries and then cut Diontae Johnson. The league average for yards per route run against man coverage is 1.31, and the Texans have only one receiver who surpasses that.
Texans Receivers’ Yards per Route Run Vs. Man Coverage
Under offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, Houston has built a reputation as a team that loves to run the ball on early downs, but it’s not really backed up by the data anymore. Since Week 10, the Texans have the 10th-highest early-down pass rate. Due to the early-down rush struggles, they’ve unleashed Stroud as a passer more.
The Texans defense turned in the most dominant performance of the opening round of the playoffs, but it will be a considerably tougher challenge on the road against Patrick Mahomes in Round 2. The Chiefs offense wasn’t a dominant force in the regular season, but it did keep a high success rate throughout 2024. It also had two of its three best games of the season by expected points added per drive in Week 16 against Houston and Week 17 against Pittsburgh, just in time for the team to clinch home-field advantage. Now we get playoff Travis Kelce, plus a healthy group of wide receivers—Xavier Worthy, DeAndre Hopkins, and Hollywood Brown.
Houston will need to generate quick pressure off the edges and exploit the Chiefs’ precarious offensive tackle situation or else Mahomes will have his way, with a full complement of offensive talent at his disposal.
One important stat that will probably matter at some point in this game: The Texans are one of the five most-penalized teams in the NFL, while the Chiefs are top five at not committing penalties. Another note: The second-half under is now 28-10 in Chiefs games dating back to the start of the 2023 season. Kansas City is an excellent teaser leg in this spot, and I’ll be pairing it with Ohio State on Monday night.
Verdict: Bet Texans team total under 16.5 points (-122).
Props: C.J. Stroud to throw an interception (-140), C.J. Stroud over 33.5 pass attempts (-128)
Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions (-9.5)
It’s unclear how the Commanders defense will make stops in this game. Detroit led the NFL in the regular season with a 52.8 percent success rate on offense and ranked third in EPA per drive. The Lions heavily relied on the run game to set up explosive pass plays.
Washington’s defense ranked 25th in EPA per drive allowed, despite facing the easiest regular-season schedule among playoff teams. By DVOA, the Commanders defense is 23rd overall and 26th against the run. The Lions will have an offensive advantage throughout this game.
In the wild-card game against Tampa Bay, the Commanders forced two early punts, but their other stops came from a Baker Mayfield fumble and an offensive line miscommunication. The Commanders won the game due to these errors and having the ball last. Their best chance against Detroit is to sustain long drives to limit the Lions’ opportunities. Washington’s offense will need to step up as its best defense.
To maintain possession and move the ball, Washington should use its quarterback in the running game more. This Lions defense has struggled against mobile QBs in the past: Justin Fields ran for 58 and 104 yards, respectively, in two Bears-Lions meetings last season, while Josh Allen totaled 68 in a game earlier this season. Anthony Richardson ran for 61, and Caleb Williams was Chicago’s leading rusher in both Bears-Lions games this season. Given the Commanders’ issues in the traditional run game of late, Jayden Daniels becomes all the more important.
In their Week 18 home win against the Vikings, the Lions defense played well by pressuring QB Sam Darnold. The Commanders, led by Daniels, should be able to handle the pressure and exploit the defense with screens and scrambles.
Both offenses rank in the top seven for the lowest percentage of plays with negative or zero yards. They are both aggressive and efficient on fourth downs. This cover will probably be decided by a few high-leverage fourth downs, but I’ll be targeting Daniels rushing props in every which way. I don’t trust the Washington defense enough to bet against the spread, but I’m all in on Daniels and this offense finding success, even on the road in the cauldron of noise in Detroit.
Verdict: Commanders team total over 22.5 (-116).
Prop: Jayden Daniels over 54.5 rush yards (-114)
Sunday Games
Los Angeles Rams at Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5)
One statistic about the Eagles offense stands out to me when I consider it as a unit. The Eagles have faced the easiest schedule of opposing defenses in the NFL this year. We saw the flaws in the Philadelphia offense on full display against the Packers on Sunday; those flaws make them vulnerable to an upset if Matthew Stafford can find passing success and build a lead. The Eagles scored an early touchdown after Green Bay fumbled the opening kickoff, but they finished the game with a negative EPA per drive and the 10th-best success rate and ninth-ranked EPA per dropback of the 12 teams who played on wild-card weekend.
Whether you blame Jalen Hurts, Nick Sirianni, or Kellen Moore for the Eagles’ passing game issues doesn’t matter. The problems exist, and A.J. Brown didn’t look 100 percent last week because of a nagging knee injury. The Rams play zone at the third-highest rate in the league, and Hurts’s passing numbers are considerably better against man coverage than against zone. Last week I mentioned the relative success DeVonta Smith has had against zone, and it wasn’t surprising that he finished the Packers game as the Eagles’ leading receiver. Smith has had more targets against zone coverage than Brown this season.
Hurts has turned down open receivers, been too risk averse as a passer, and prioritized protecting the ball above all else. He can afford to do so because the Eagles have an elite rushing attack and defense. But Hurts’s style of play is contributing to a lower-scoring environment.
The weather in Philadelphia on Sunday could also make this an ugly game for both offenses. The forecast predicts a wintry mix of rain and snow and temperatures right around freezing. These two offenses have both had major issues with starting games efficiently, and the conditions could make that even more difficult.
The Rams rank 29th in first-quarter EPA per play, and the Eagles rank 25th. These two offenses have been slow starters all season long, and both defenses are able to take away explosive plays schematically, so I expect this game to be low scoring, like both teams’ wild-card games.
The first matchup between these teams was defined by two long, explosive runs from Saquon Barkley. The Eagles got two touchdowns in the final three minutes to push that game over the total of 47.5, and Barkley ran the ball 26 times for 255 yards.
As long as Philadelphia is playing with a lead, it will lean on the run game and the defense. Both of these defenses are young and started the season slow, but since Week 6, they have excelled at preventing big plays. The Rams rank 12th in explosive play rate allowed, and the Eagles rank second. That will make for long, methodical drives throughout the game.
Even though the Eagles offense struggled last week, it had a 13-play, seven-and-a-half-minute field goal drive to shorten the game in the second half. The defense has been first in EPA per drive, by a wide margin, since the bye week. The Eagles lost Nakobe Dean to injury, which hurts them there, but I suspect that Stafford will consistently be under duress in the adverse weather conditions.
I like the under in both the first half and the full game.
Verdict: Bet first half under 22.5 (-115) and full game under 44.5 (-118).
Baltimore Ravens at Buffalo Bills (+1.5)
For the second consecutive season, Buffalo will host the final game of the divisional round in one of the most highly anticipated matchups of the entire season. Buffalo lost by three at home to Kansas City last year as a three-point favorite. The betting markets opened with this game as a toss-up, but the market has shifted ever so slightly toward Baltimore. It’s really loved the Ravens in the last month; the spreads for their past four games have moved in favor of Baltimore.
Like two of the three divisional-round matchups before it, this is a regular-season rematch. These two teams met in Baltimore in Week 4, and the game was basically over after Derrick Henry ran 87 yards for a touchdown on the Ravens’ first offensive snap of the game. Baltimore took a quick 21-3 lead on its first three drives and cruised to a win. The Bills couldn’t really stop the Ravens’ run offense that night, and that’s where any analysis of this matchup should begin.
Buffalo didn’t have linebackers Matt Milano or Terrel Bernard for the first game. Nickel corner Taron Johnson also missed because of injury. All three of them are important to the Buffalo run defense and are healthy now. It’s true that the perceived weakness of the Buffalo defense is in the middle of the field. But the run defense won’t be as bad as it was in that Week 4 road game. The Bills rank fifth in adjusted line yards allowed—a metric that judges how defensive lines hold up in the run game. Safeties Taylor Rapp and Damar Hamlin haven’t graded out well in coverage, but they have performed well as two of the Bills’ top run defenders, per PFF.
On paper, Baltimore has an elite run defense that should be able to slow down Buffalo’s run-heavy early-down offense. But the Broncos had an elite run defense on paper, too, and that didn’t stop the Bills from running for 210 yards on 44 total rushes in their wild-card matchup. Baltimore had an elite pass defense in the second half of the season by EPA per play. And since Week 11, the Ravens defense has been first in EPA per dropback. Here are the offenses they’ve played in that span:
Steelers (three times)
Browns
Texans
Giants
Eagles
Chargers
That’s just one matchup against a top-12 pass offense by DVOA (Los Angeles). The Ravens secondary isn’t as elite as it was last year, and neither is the pass rush. Baltimore’s offense is better because of Henry, but the potential absence of Zay Flowers could matter in a more competitive game decided late in the fourth quarter.
You can make arguments that either team has been marginally better than the other this season. The market certainly thinks that Baltimore has played better in the last month, but I think that has more to do with the fact that Buffalo clinched its division early and took its foot off the gas pedal. Baltimore had to keep playing at full throttle through Week 18 to win the AFC North.
If you consume enough content about the NFL, you’ve probably read about the advantage Baltimore’s run defense has compared to Buffalo’s run defense in stopping the other team’s run game.
But we all know this won’t be where the game is really decided. In crucial passing downs, I still have more trust in Allen at home with his full complement of receivers than I have in Jackson on the road without Flowers. I’m always wary of a small sample of playoff data, but Allen’s playoff numbers in the divisional round and later are considerably superior to Jackson’s. That could make all the difference on Sunday.
Verdict: Bet Buffalo moneyline (+100).
Props:
Ravens win first half, Bills win game (+800 at DraftKings).
Josh Allen anytime TD scorer (+105).
Bets from this article made for the divisional round:
Texans team total under 16.5 (-115)
Commanders team total over 23.5 (-105)
Rams-Eagles first half under 22.5 (-115)
Rams-Eagles under 44.5 (-115)
Bills moneyline (+100)
Teaser: Kansas City -2.5 plus Ohio State -2.5 (-120)
Props:
C.J. Stroud to throw an interception (-140)
C.J. Stroud over 33.5 pass attempts (-128)
Jayden Daniels over 64.5 rush yards (-110)
Ravens win first half, Bills win game (+800 at DraftKings)
Josh Allen anytime TD scorer (+105)
Against the spread picks for contests:
Kansas City -8.5
Washington +9.5
Los Angeles +6.5
Buffalo +1.5
