Who Has the Edge in the College Football National Championship Game?
The answers to these four questions could determine who wins between Ohio State and Notre Dame
For maybe the first time in college football history, the chase for a national title reflected what we often see in March Madness—seeds went out the window, and the two most talented teams, Ohio State and Notre Dame, made it to the end of a grueling single-elimination tournament. For all the hemming and hawing over what to amend in the new 12-team playoff format, the sport wound up with one of the more interesting title game matchups we’ve seen in the entirety of the playoff era.
Ohio State came up short in conference play during the regular season, with losses to Oregon and Michigan. But its combination of experience on defense and top-end talent on offense made beating the Buckeyes a near-impossible task in a high-stakes format like this.
As for Notre Dame, all the advanced metrics this season pointed to the Irish being a championship-caliber team, but their résumé wasn’t impressive entering the playoff. Their youth and injuries on the offensive line made me wonder whether head coach Marcus Freeman’s team was still a year ahead of schedule. In each round, though, the Irish were better prepared than their opponent and effectively executed their game plan. Scheme and game management are doing more of the heavy lifting, but this team proved it has just enough juice to hang with anyone in the country. If you look at March Madness over the years, this is often how the tournament has played out.
We’ll be locked in for the championship game here at The Ringer. These are four big questions I want to see answered in the title game on Monday night—and I’ll make my prediction.
What is Notre Dame’s plan for covering Jeremiah Smith?
The best player in college football is the Buckeyes’ 19-year-old wide receiver, and it’s hard not to imagine him at the top of NFL draft boards when he’s finally eligible in two years. But right now for the Buckeyes, Smith is their best field-stretching option, their biggest yards-after-the-catch threat, and their best receiver when it comes to making tough, contested catches.
If there’s anything to learn from Ohio State’s path to the championship game, it’s that there aren’t any good answers for stopping Smith and this offense. Oregon tried a balanced defensive game plan in the quarterfinal, and Ohio State offensive coordinator Chip Kelly picked the Ducks apart by calling a combination of passes and runs that put stress on Oregon’s coverages and fronts. Smith led Ohio State with 192 total yards and two scores in that game. In the semifinal, Texas was more intentional about keeping defenders over the top of Smith in hopes of limiting the explosive plays. It was successful in shutting Smith down (he had just one catch for 3 yards), but quarterback Will Howard responded by distributing the ball to receivers Carnell Tate, Emeka Egbuka, and Gee Scott Jr., who combined for 17 catches for 168 yards.
If I’m Notre Dame defensive coordinator Al Golden, I’m borrowing from the two-deep coverages Texas used, but I want to test Howard and this Ohio State offensive line with blitzes too. There’s risk in taking players out of coverage on Smith, but there’s no way to guard everyone on this offense anyway. Howard has had the benefit of operating on schedule all postseason, and I want to see Notre Dame try to move him off-platform and force him to throw under duress, even if that means Smith might have more one-on-one opportunities.
Can Ohio State’s defensive front dominate?
If this game becomes a blowout for Ohio State, it’ll likely be because its defensive front overwhelmed the Irish’s patchwork offensive line. The Buckeyes’ edge-rushing duo of Jack Sawyer and J.T. Tuimoloau have played the best football of their respective careers this postseason, and they have the potential to terrorize a Notre Dame offensive line that enters Monday’s game with questions at both left tackle and right guard.
The Irish need to control the line of scrimmage to have any hope of sustained success on offense. They were unable to do so in a close win over Penn State in the semifinal, which raised red flags for me about how this group will hold up against athletic players like the ones Ohio State has up front.
Notre Dame running back Jeremiyah Love looks healthy and explosive again, but he’ll have a tough time between the tackles. If he does break any big runs, it’ll have to be on the perimeter after making defenders miss. It’s hard for me to believe that the Irish can find enough early-down success running the ball unless quarterback Riley Leonard can be an effective scrambler. But subjecting Leonard to contact as a runner opens the door to a host of other potential issues in the passing game.
How aggressive will Marcus Freeman be on fourth downs?
The Irish have had a coaching advantage in each of their playoff games thus far, but the title game is Freeman’s biggest test yet—especially since he’s a defensive-minded coach. The Irish’s best chance at success might be through sustaining long drives and using the clock to their advantage. That means Freeman’s offense will have to go for it on several fourth downs—even if the ball is in its territory or near midfield.
Notre Dame has attempted only 26 fourth-down conversions this season, but it’s converted 73 percent of them, and that’s thanks in large part to what Leonard can do with his legs. If Freeman is conservative in his game management, Notre Dame could be in trouble.
Which future NFL safety will have the bigger impact: Ohio State’s Caleb Downs or Notre Dame’s Xavier Watts?
The most dynamic defender for each team will be in the middle of the field, and both Downs and Watts will have opportunities to change the outcome of the game. For Notre Dame, it’s not the best use of Watts’s skill set to have him over the top as coverage help on Smith, so I expect Freeman will keep Watts in the middle of the field—both when the Irish are in single-high and when they show more creative Cover 2 looks. With that in mind, Watts will need to have his best game as a tackler to keep runs and short passes from turning into explosive gains.
For Ohio State, I expect defensive coordinator Jim Knowles to employ Downs in myriad ways to give him a chance to be a playmaker. Don’t be surprised if Downs is responsible for spying Leonard on one snap and dropping deep into coverage on the next. Leonard will need to locate Downs on every play to make sure he’s not throwing the ball near the safety. If Downs gets his hands on the ball via interception (or a punt return for that matter), he’ll be a threat to score and tilt the balance in Ohio State’s favor.
Prediction: Ohio State has a gear Notre Dame simply can’t match.
When this college football season began, I had a feeling that Notre Dame could land here in the title game, yet it has proved to be an even more complete team than I thought it’d be given the roster turnover. Freeman has the goods as a head coach, and I’m not convinced his recent contract extension will be enough to keep the NFL’s interest in him at bay in the years to come. Leonard hasn’t been the game changer at quarterback I’d hoped for, and the offensive line is still a bit shaky, but Freeman has maximized every bit of his roster on the way to this game. I wouldn’t be shocked if he found another edge to keep this game closer than the 8.5-point line suggests.
Still, Ryan Day’s Ohio State team has too many ways to win a big game like this. Whatever changes Day and his staff made between their loss to Michigan and their first-round game against Tennessee worked for this offense. Howard will probably put the ball in harm’s way on Monday night, but Kelly and Day have leaned on the run game and given Howard layups to work with on early downs. Even if Notre Dame tries to play keep-away and shuts down the Howard-to-Smith connection, this offense can generate explosive plays on a whim and score on every possession.
The first half should be tightly contested, but the story of these playoffs has been Ohio State, and that won’t stop here. My pick: Ohio State 34-20.
