The Philadelphia 76ers played in Denver on Tuesday, which means that Joel Embiid didn’t. For the fifth year in a row, Embiid missed a matchup of MVP centers in high altitude—but, in fairness to the big fella, he’s also missing a lot of other games. Embiid has played just 13 times this season, owing to a suspension and a variety of injuries. Last week, Philadelphia announced that Embiid would be reevaluated toward the end of the month as he recovers from knee soreness.
Without their top offensive option and defensive anchor, the 76ers have collapsed: They’re 8-21 without Embiid and 15-27 overall, including a blowout defeat in Denver. More than halfway through the season, they’re stuck in 11th place in the East.
That wasn’t the expectation for Philly’s 2024-25 campaign after the 76ers made the NBA’s highest-profile free agent signing in years, inking Paul George to a four-year max. The 76ers also extended Embiid and Tyrese Maxey to high-dollar deals, and they were roundly declared the winners of the offseason. As recently as New Year’s Eve, they seemed to be on the upswing, or at the very least to have recovered from a horrid, injury-plagued start. As the calendar flipped to 2025, Embiid had played four games in a row, and the 76ers had won them all—including one against the defending champs in Boston.
But nothing has come easy for the 76ers this season—or, indeed, for the last decade. Because of various injuries, Embiid last played on January 4. Since then, amid a brutal stretch of the schedule, the 76ers are 1-8, with the only win coming against the Wizards. They’re now three games back of the East’s no. 10 seed and 6.5 games back of the no. 8 spot. Even if they reach the play-in tournament, they’ll all but certainly need to win two single-elimination games just to become the playoffs’ no. 8 seed.
Given the sorry state of their roster and record, ESPN’s BPI gives the 76ers only a 10 percent chance to reach the playoffs and a 1 percent chance to reach the second round. Daryl Morey famously said that teams should go all in if they have a 5 percent chance to win a title—but the 76ers’ title odds round down to zero point zero percent, per BPI.
Here’s what probability is greater than 5 percent, though: the 76ers’ odds of landing the no. 1 pick in the 2025 draft. By a twist of Morey’s logic, perhaps the 76ers should be fully focused on the lottery instead.
The Sixers could cut their losses, shut Embiid down, and embrace a second-half tank—a prospect made all the more appealing because Philadelphia owes a top-six-protected pick to the Thunder, courtesy of the Al Horford salary dump back in 2020. That trade wouldn’t be an issue if the 76ers were on pace to finish with one of the NBA’s six best records, as they were projected to before the season. But missing out on a top-10 talent in a loaded draft would hurt.
As of this writing, the 76ers have the NBA’s eighth-worst record. This chart shows their odds of keeping or surrendering their pick depending on where they end up in the standings. (Of course, they’ll definitely give up their pick if they make the playoffs.)
76ers’ Chances of Keeping or Losing Top-Six-Protected Pick
The Wizards, Raptors, and Jazz are ensconced at the top (or bottom, depending on one’s vantage point) of the lottery standings. The Nets will likely end up there as well, given both their incentive to lose and their trades of Dennis Schroder, Dorian Finney-Smith, and probably Cam Johnson by the deadline. And odds are that at least one of the Pelicans, Hornets, and Trail Blazers will finish with a worse record than Philadelphia, even if those teams have played better of late.
Taken all together, that means even a best-case tanking scenario for the 76ers would be to finish with the sixth-worst record. Moving up two spots from eighth in the lottery pecking order would nearly double the 76ers’ odds of keeping their first-round selection, from about 1-in-4 to almost 1-in-2. But even then, the 76ers would still be favored to lose their pick. Yikes.
The decision of whether to pursue wins or ping-pong balls should come down to more than simple draft pick probabilities. In theory, there’s nothing wrong with taking a gap year. The injury-ravaged Grizzlies did so last season, and they’ve bounced back just fine in 2024-25. The 2019-20 Warriors went just 15-50 after making five Finals in a row, after they lost Kevin Durant to free agency and both Klay Thompson and Steph Curry to injury; they were back in the Finals two years later.
Other tanking efforts have yielded even greater long-term payoffs. In the mid-’90s, the San Antonio Spurs won the second-most games in the NBA over a three-season span, then went 20-62 with David Robinson hurt, and immediately returned to contention the next season—because their gap year landed them the no. 1 pick and Tim Duncan.
But there’s a difference between taking a gap year when all your best players are in their mid-20s, as was the case for last year’s Grizzlies, and doing so when your Big Three includes a 34-year-old (George) and a 30-year-old with an injury history as long as the Rocky Steps. The 76ers have only so many bites at the apple; to tank would be like wasting one of them on a worm.
Still, the 76ers might be too far gone to save this season. A six-game home stand leading into the deadline, all against opponents with a .500 record or better, could determine whether Morey—who built a roster full of flexible contracts around Embiid, George, and Maxey, all to position himself for upgrades at the trade deadline—shifts his approach.
At least a temporary step back would end the 76ers’ streak of seven straight seasons making the playoffs but not the conference finals—tied for the third longest in NBA history.
Most Consecutive Seasons Making Playoffs but Not Conference Finals
If Morey decides to give up on this season and sell at the deadline, he could flood the market with useful bench targets. Andre Drummond can hold down backup center minutes. Kelly Oubre’s an average wing. Kyle Lowry—currently injured—and Eric Gordon are tough veteran guards with proven playoff chops. All those players have struggled this season but will either be free agents or have affordable player options after this year. Caleb Martin could also be dealt, though he’s signed through 2026-27 (with an extra year via player option) and is currently out with a hip sprain.
The most intriguing of the 76ers’ potential trade candidates is Guerschon Yabusele, who signed out of France after an impressive run at the Paris Olympics. Unlike many of his teammates, Yabusele has played well this season, averaging a career-best 10 points and five rebounds per game while making 40 percent of his 3s. Because Yabusele is on a veteran minimum contract, even teams with apron concerns could easily trade for him; the Cavaliers, Knicks, and Mavericks, among other contenders, could all use more size on the wing.
One player who seems unlikely to be traded, however, even if the 76ers pivot, is George. Morey probably won’t get a do-over on that four-year, $212 million deal because of the calamitous combination of George’s age, drop in performance, and remaining contract. The nine-time All-Star is suffering through his worst season since he was a rookie, in both traditional and advanced stats, and he’s owed $51.7 million in 2025-26, $54.1 million in 2026-27, and $56.6 million (via a player option) in 2027-28.
George is one of 16 players slated for a cap hit of $50 million or more next season. But he’s the second worst of those players, per The Ringer’s recent Top 100 update.
Players With $50 Million Cap Hit in 2025-26
George’s tenure in Philadelphia is a sad reflection of the 76ers’ entire season thus far. He started out injured and thus couldn’t develop any chemistry with Maxey and Embiid; when he’s been able to take the court, George hasn’t shot to his usual standard, and he’s grumbled about his usage in coach Nick Nurse’s scheme. Now he’s stuck with the 76ers, and the 76ers are stuck with him, in a marriage that looks increasingly miserable with every new loss added to Philadelphia’s ledger.
But so it goes for the snakebitten Sixers, who embarked on the ambitious Process more than a decade ago and have more failed no. 1 picks, allergy scares, and front office debacles than conference finals appearances in that span. The 2024-25 campaign might not be a complete loss for the franchise—at least no. 16 pick Jared McCain looks like a keeper, though even he suffered a season-ending injury last month—but it could be close. Barring a sudden turnaround in health or propitious lottery luck, the 76ers will miss both a chance at a title and a chance at adding a top prospect this June.
