The lead-up to the 97th Academy Awards has been anything but ordinary. Last week, the Oscar nominations were delayed on account of the devastating wildfires across Los Angeles. “We will get through this together and bring a sense of healing to our global film community,” Academy CEO Bill Kramer and Academy president Janet Yang said in a joint statement. As for the awards themselves, some of the biggest categories—Best Picture included—feel like they’re still in flux, which could result in one of the most unpredictable Oscars in recent memory. Below, we break down the biggest winners and losers from Thursday’s nominations.
Neutral: The Best Picture Front-Runners
Usually by this time, we head into the Oscars with one or two leading contenders for Best Picture; last year, for instance, Oppenheimer’s coronation already seemed like a near lock. In 2025, however, you could make a compelling case for four movies winning Best Picture come March: Anora, The Brutalist, Conclave, and Emilia Pérez. Three of these films (Anora, Conclave, Emilia Pérez) have been nominated for the top award by the Producers Guild, the Directors Guild, and the Screen Actors Guild; The Brutalist, meanwhile, won the Golden Globe for Best Motion Picture—Drama. (Emilia Pérez, meanwhile, won the same award in the Musical or Comedy category.)
If any of these movies have lost momentum after Thursday’s nominations, it’s Conclave, which couldn’t land a Best Director nomination for Edward Berger. Otherwise, it’s still anyone’s game. If I had to guess, I’d say Emilia Pérez has the strongest odds of winning Best Picture by virtue of its 13 Oscar nominations, more than any other film. (That total ties the second most for any movie ever, putting Emilia Pérez on the same ground as films like Gone With the Wind, Mary Poppins, and Shakespeare in Love.) Which means that, yes, we’re one step closer to a movie with this sequence becoming Netflix’s first Best Picture winner; what a time to be alive.
Winner: Karla Sofía Gascón
As a hybrid musical–gangster movie–thriller—see the above clip—Emilia Pérez might be a baffling front-runner for Best Picture, but the film’s success also carries a feel-good factor. As one of the nominees for Best Actress, Karla Sofía Gascón has become the first openly transgender actor to be nominated at the Oscars. It’s an impressive (and long-overdue) distinction in and of itself, and it feels even more meaningful at a time when the new presidential administration aims to roll back trans rights across the country.
Winner: Sebastian Stan’s Acting (and PR)
Speaking of Donald Trump, let’s hear it for Sebastian Stan. The actor had two projects on the Oscars radar this year in A Different Man and The Apprentice, but it’s the latter that threatened to hurt his chances of a nomination. As Stan explained in November, he wasn’t able to participate in Variety’s Actors on Actors series because nobody wanted to talk about Trump. (It’s not just a matter of politics; the entertainment industry actively fears retribution from Trump during his second term.) Now, it appears Stan’s presence in the movie ended up working in his favor—consider his Best Actor nomination for The Apprentice as a mild and anonymous form of #Resistance, as well as an appreciation of Stan’s talents. (Though, if I had to choose between his two performances last year, I’d go to bat for his work in A Different Man.)
Losers: A-Listers on the Bubble
Before Thursday’s nominations, the acting categories might’ve been some of the hardest to predict. In Best Actress alone, you could compile a worthy slate of five nominees from the actresses who wound up being excluded, such as Marianne Jean-Baptiste for her searing work in Hard Truths. But while the Oscars don’t have the same reputation as the Globes for favoring A-listers, it’s nevertheless surprising that so many big names missed out, including Daniel Craig for Queer, Nicole Kidman for Babygirl, Angelina Jolie for Maria, and Jamie Lee Curtis for The Last Showgirl. Personally, I’d have loved to see Kidman sneak in for her submissive turn in Babygirl, but I’m sure the entire nation of Brazil is thrilled for I’m Still Here’s Fernanda Torres, who followed up her Globes win with a Best Actress nomination. (While we’re on the subject: Shout-out to I’m Still Here for scoring a Best Picture nod, too.)
Winner: The Substance
It’s not that the Oscars have never championed a horror movie before—[gestures at The Silence of the Lambs]—but it’s safe to say that The Substance is not in the Academy’s usual wheelhouse. With some of the nastiest body-horror sequences you’ll see from someone not named David Cronenberg, Coralie Fargeat’s film is not for the faint of heart. At the same time, The Substance is a scathing satire of Hollywood’s unrealistic beauty standards for women, and Demi Moore delivered one of the best performances of her career. If The Substance does end up winning an Oscar or two in March, let’s hope it doesn’t resemble Monstro Elisasue presenting at the New Year’s Eve show.
Loser: Sing Sing (and A24’s Release Strategy)
For a time, it seemed like Sing Sing wasn’t just primed to be nominated for Best Picture—it seemed like it could’ve been a front-runner. Alas, the A24 drama about the real-life Rehabilitation Through the Arts program at Sing Sing Correctional Facility will have to make do with three nominations—Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Song, and Best Actor (for Colman Domingo). Three nominations is nothing to scoff at, but it’s hard to shake the feeling that A24 could’ve surpassed that with a better theatrical rollout, after Sing Sing had only a limited release in July before expanding in August. (As of this writing, Sing Sing is also unavailable to stream.) At this point, when it comes to indie studios and creative release strategies, Neon has A24 beat.
Winners: CGI Monkeys
The weirdest trend from this year’s Oscar nominations: the Academy throwing its weight behind CGI monkeys. In the Best Visual Effects category, three of the five nominees just so happen to feature CGI primates: Better Man, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes, and Wicked. If we’re being honest, Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes and Wicked don’t need any Oscars love; to paraphrase Don Draper, that’s what the box office is for. But I’m thrilled for Better Man. The one-of-a-kind Robbie Williams biopic bombed in the United States, reflecting the British pop star’s inability to break out stateside. Even if you don’t know who Williams is, Better Man is worth the price of admission—reader, I was moved to tears watching a CGI chimp shoot up heroin, and I know how ridiculous that sounds. Hopefully, Better Man’s Oscar nomination will lead some moviegoers to check it out, if only to see what the fuss is about.
Loser: The Academy Failing to Recognize the Greatness of Challengers
You know what movie fucking rocks? Challengers. Perhaps a sexy, stylized tennis drama released all the way back in April was always destined to face an uphill battle to earn Oscar recognition, but one would hope that enough Academy voters would, at the very least, appreciate Trent Reznor and Atticus Ross’s cutting-edge score. (I also want to show some love to Justin Kuritzkes’s screenplay, which is predicated on a love triangle that is even wilder to think about when you realize his real-life partner is … Past Lives writer-director Celine Song.) Sadly, Challengers came away empty-handed from Thursday’s nominations. In time, we’ll forget about the 97th Academy Awards; “Match Point” will live on forever in our workout playlists.
Winner: The Inevitable Diane Warren Nomination
Another year, another Diane Warren Oscar nomination for Best Original Song. For those keeping score at home, Warren has her record-breaking 16th(!) nomination in the category (a record she had already set), courtesy of “The Journey” from the Tyler Perry Netflix movie The Six Triple Eight. Despite all these nominations, Warren has yet to win an Oscar outside of an honorary award in 2022, and that will likely continue this year, considering she’s up against two songs from Emilia Pérez. Tough beat for Warren, but we love a good bit.
