On Tuesday afternoon, the ice on trade season finally thawed when ESPN’s Shams Charania reported that the Sacramento Kings are willing to hear offers for De’Aaron Fox, their longest-tenured player. None of this is surprising. Rumors of a divorce have been percolating since the 27-year-old turned down a three-year, $165 million extension from the Kings last summer. He justified it for financial reasons—Fox would qualify for a five-year, $345 million supermax extension in the summer of 2025 if he made an All-NBA team this season—but it came with a harbinger: Whether it was in Sacramento or somewhere else, he wanted to play for a team that could actually, someday, win a championship.
“I would love to be here for my entire career, to be on one team, to be in one city, for my entire career,” Fox said back in October. “But I want to make sure that we’re in that position to be competing and competing at a high level for a long time, not just fighting for a playoff spot.”
It’s here where we bump into the crux of Tuesday’s development, which doubles as a slight conflict and modern-day rarity. How much should any potential suitor be willing to give up for Fox, and how many potential suitors exist who are willing to give up something valuable to get him? This is a top-25 player in the early days of his prime. At the same time, in eight seasons, he’s never won a playoff series and has cracked only one All-Star and one All-NBA team (both in 2023). How much of that is due to his own shortcomings, and how much is because he was drafted by an obscenely dysfunctional organization that can’t get out of its own way? (Quick sidebar: Remember when the Kings didn’t draft Luka Doncic because Vlade Divac thought Fox was better? An opinion he still clings to?!)
Surroundings are critical for every player, but in this context, as the most attractive star being shopped around before next week’s trade deadline, Fox’s may blur his value. Swap his career with, say, Jamal Murray’s (i.e., shining next to Nikola Jokic), and there’s a definite chance that both point guards would be perceived very differently than they currently are. Neither is good enough to be the best player on a championship team. But there may be no gap between them as high-end sidekicks. Fox is close to unstoppable in the paint and is averaging more points there than every guard except Shai Gilgeous-Alexander this season. He’s two years removed from winning the NBA’s first Clutch Player of the Year award and dropped a career-high 60 points on the Minnesota Timberwolves in November.
But he also has blemishes. Fox is a streaky 3-point shooter who’s made just 32.4 percent of his attempts this season. His true shooting percentage has been above league average only one time (2023), and, after a season in which the Kings were better when Fox was on the court without Domantas Sabonis (as opposed to the other way around), that dynamic has dramatically flipped this year. He now ranks third on his own team in estimated plus-minus and fifth in net points per 100 possessions.
The idea of trading for someone who’s on his third straight year of averaging at least 25 points per game sounds great when you say it out loud. And don’t get me wrong, there are stretches when Fox rules. But how many teams can pay him a max contract and still compete for a championship? Assuming that Tyler Herro would be included in a hypothetical deal, how far could the Miami Heat go with Fox and Bam Adebayo as their two most expensive players? And pending what the Houston Rockets are willing to surrender, there’s a very real (though not particularly concerning) risk that Houston would just become a younger, feistier version of the Kings, with Alperen Sengun standing in as a less efficient version of Sabonis. This doesn’t mean that either team would be inactive after Fox is acquired—Houston, especially, could almost definitely still have enough assets to make another significant deal or two—but, for most general managers, there’s simply too much uncertainty in taking him on.
Now, if he’s added to a team that already employs a younger, better, more versatile star and could slide Fox in as the right-hand man, well, that’s a completely different conversation. Only a couple of teams realistically fit that bill. One is the Orlando Magic. Would they be willing to offer something like Jonathan Isaac, Anthony Black, and their 2025 first-round pick? If they were convinced that Fox would seriously consider signing an extension, the answer to that question should be yes. There are spacing concerns if he were paired with Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner, but there’s reason to believe that Orlando’s two franchise pillars will eventually be pretty good outside shooters, particularly if their looks are cleanly set up by someone who can draw two defenders in his sleep, like Fox does. Could the Kings get a better package elsewhere? Unclear.
Another option is the San Antonio Spurs, a franchise that Fox reportedly and wisely has his eye on. As Victor Wembanyama’s no. 2, he’d be in annual title contention under a spotlight that very few organizations (if any) may be able to match. Nothing is guaranteed in the NBA, but the absolute best-case scenario here is a generation of competitive relevance, international fame, and a career suddenly full of consequential moments that will echo down the halls of NBA history. Fox can potentially exist at the center of basketball’s universe as the point guard of a dynastic run. Not bad.
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By next season, Wemby will be the most formidable pick-and-roll partner in the league, and he already casts one of the widest safety nets on the other end as a mortal lock to win Defensive Player of the Year. If Fox is the second-best player on a Spurs team that can win 50-plus games a season for the next decade, it’ll be a lot harder to bypass him in All-Star or All-NBA conversations. Individual accolades will come. So will an on-court stability he’s probably spent his entire career dreaming about. The Spurs are not rash. They have foresight, patience, and enough trade capital to keep improving a roster that, with Wemby, will already own one of the highest floors in the league.
Now, back in reality, no trade has happened yet, and there’s no guarantee that Gregg Popovich and R.C. Buford think pairing Wemby with Fox is a great idea. This is a humongous commitment that doesn’t need to happen midway through their franchise player’s second season. Other stars will take a long look at San Antonio. The Spurs may put themselves in a more precarious position by acting now rather than waiting things out and seeing who else may fall into their laps down the line. Maybe that player is currently in college. Or perhaps he’s already on the roster. (Stephon Castle rules and may win Rookie of the Year.)
Remember, Wembanyama just turned 21 years old. He’s already a top-10 player and should crack first-team All-NBA a few months from now. If you’re the Spurs, there’s no need to accelerate your timeline; peaking when Wembanyama supplants Nikola Jokic as the best player alive makes a lot more sense.
If Sacramento and San Antonio do strike a deal, well, now that everyone knows the Spurs are reportedly Fox’s first choice, the Kings’ leverage to get the best possible package is all but shot. That could create an interesting dilemma for the Kings, who have gone 11-4 since Doug Christie replaced Mike Brown at head coach and may not be super interested in the draft-pick-heavy package that San Antonio is likely to offer. Fox still has one year left on his contract and is guaranteed $37 million next season. A lot can happen between now and July, and Sacramento may conclude that waiting this season out and fielding offers in the summer is a better way to maximize its return.
This whole situation is very fluid. Don’t be surprised if Fox is involved in a blockbuster deal that sends him to some mystery team we didn’t even mention in this article. But also don’t be shocked if nothing happens at all. Fox is a captivating speed demon who doesn’t get nervous in crunch time. But is anyone desperate enough right now to pay whatever bounty the Kings are likely asking for, and then be at complete ease with giving him a max extension? Whatever happens, the ripple effects will linger for years to come.
