Welcome to Super Bowl LIX week at The Ringer! Let’s get started with a table setter: I’ve watched the film, crunched the numbers, and sorted through the noise to identify the 25 most important things you need to know about this game. Let’s get to it!
Numbers are from TruMedia, Pro Football Focus, and Next Gen Stats unless otherwise noted.
1. Everything about this matchup screams that it will be a close game that’s decided in the last four minutes. I don’t care if you think I’m jinxing it. I’m not playing scared—we’ll get a classic. Why? Let’s start with the Chiefs. They have gone 17-1 this season with Patrick Mahomes as their starter. In 132 career starts with Mahomes, they have lost by more than eight points a whopping … wait for it … five times! Are you hearing what I’m saying?! Five times out of 132 games—making the chances of a blowout, based on historical precedent, just 3.8 percent! It’s not impossible to blow the Chiefs out, but it’s very, very rare.
2. And then we have the Eagles. They are 15-2 this season in games that Jalen Hurts has started and finished. The last time they lost a game that Hurts was healthy for was Week 4 against the Bucs. That game was played on September 29! Do you realize how long ago that was? Some context: The Bears and Jets were both .500 then and still had hope. So, yes, it’s been a long, long time. What I’m saying is that there’s an excellent chance of the “Hey, this Super Bowl is actually pretty good” streak staying alive. The last three Super Bowls have been one-possession games that came down to the end. I think we’ll get four in a row.
3. The Eagles lost to the Chiefs in the Super Bowl two years ago for a number of reasons. Hurts had a fumble that was returned for a touchdown. And the Chiefs had a 65-yard punt return that set up a score. But the biggest reason for the loss? The Eagles defense didn’t stand a chance against the Chiefs offense. Kansas City delivered a 98th-percentile performance based on expected points added per drive and a 99th-percentile performance based on offensive success rate. The Chiefs had eight possessions in that game and scored four touchdowns and a field goal. Andy Reid and Mahomes put on a clinic against then–Eagles defensive coordinator Jonathan Gannon.
4. So why might this time around be different? Because the Eagles are bringing a worthy adversary to the matchup in defensive coordinator Vic Fangio. Fangio took a defense that ranked 29th in efficiency in 2023 and turned it into arguably the best unit in the NFL.
Philadelphia Eagles Defensive Rankings This Season
Fangio and Mahomes have a history. They’ve faced each other eight times since 2019, and the Chiefs are undefeated in those matchups. Of course, part of that has to do with what was happening on the other side of the ball. And Fangio’s defenses in Denver and Miami were not as good as this Eagles defense. Here’s how Mahomes’s performances against Fangio compare to his performances against the rest of the NFL.
Patrick Mahomes’s Performance Against Fangio Vs. Everyone Else
Mahomes has performed slightly worse against Fangio, but we’re splitting hairs here. For the most part, the average Mahomes game against Fangio has looked almost identical to the average Mahomes game against everyone else.
5. The most interesting aspect of the matchup between the Chiefs offense and the Eagles defense? It’s that the way the Eagles force opponents to play is precisely the way that the Chiefs play anyway. What do I mean? A big part of the Fangio philosophy is making opponents work for everything they get and limiting explosive plays. As shown in the table earlier, the Eagles have had the second-best defense in the NFL at limiting explosive plays this season. You want to methodically move the ball down the field with 6-yard gains and try to convert at a high rate on third and fourth down? OK, go ahead. Let’s see it. But you’re not getting a 25-yard completion against this group.
Well, guess what. The Chiefs have no use for those 25-yard completions anyway! This version of the Kansas City offense is completely different from the ones that featured Tyreek Hill catching the ball downfield early in the Mahomes era. The Chiefs this season produced explosive plays at the fourth-lowest rate in the entire NFL. The Eagles want to force opponents to be methodical. The Chiefs’ whole identity is based on being methodical. So which side will do what they like to do better? The answer could go a long way in determining the winner of this game.
6. We need to spend a little more time on the Chiefs’ offensive identity, just to drive the point home. Mahomes’s average pass this season has traveled just 6.3 yards past the line of scrimmage. That ranks 34th out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks—ahead of only Gardner Minshew and Tua Tagovailoa. He has thrown deep on just 7.1 percent of his attempts. That ranks 33rd out of 36 qualifying quarterbacks. And on those occasions when he has thrown downfield, Mahomes has not been effective, ranking 34th out of 36 quarterbacks in EPA per pass play. Again, for these Chiefs, it’s all about getting the ball out quickly, throwing short, and finding open receivers.
Quick caveat: I want to be clear that what I’m describing is how the Chiefs have played this season. In a one-game sample against the Eagles, who knows what Reid’s plan will be? They have wide receiver Marquise Brown back and healthy. Speedy rookie Xavier Worthy is undoubtedly better now than he was earlier in the season. They added veteran DeAndre Hopkins in 2024. And playoff Travis Kelce is different than regular-season Travis Kelce. Moving Joe Thuney over from left guard to left tackle has solidified their pass protection. So maybe we’ll see a different version of the Chiefs offense in the Super Bowl than we’ve seen all season. But based on the sample we have, it’d be surprising to see them chuck the ball downfield effectively in this game.
7. So if the Chiefs can’t throw the ball downfield effectively, how have they still produced an above-average offense? Here’s a look at where Mahomes’s EPA per pass play ranks in different areas of the field compared to how the Eagles defend those areas of the field.
How Might Patrick Mahomes Attack the Eagles Defense?
These numbers tell the story. Mahomes has made a living throwing short this season, but the Eagles have been the best defense in the NFL against short passes. They are an excellent tackling team and have players like linebacker Zack Baun and defensive backs Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean who specialize in blowing up screens and other short passes. The intermediate part of the field is where the Chiefs have their best chance to do damage, especially since the Eagles are rolling with backup linebacker Oren Burks in place of the injured Nakobe Dean. And the numbers reinforce the point that taking shots downfield could be challenging for Kansas City against Fangio’s group.
8. What will the Eagles’ defensive plan be? I expect Fangio will lean on zone coverage and a four-man pass rush. The truth is that’s what this unit usually does anyway. The Eagles have played zone at the 10th-highest rate of any defense, and they’re quite good at it, ranking first in defensive success rate when playing zone. Here’s a look at how Mahomes has performed this season against man and against zone.
Patrick Mahomes’s Performance Against Man Vs. Zone Coverage This Season
I am not a dummy. I am not telling you that zone coverage is some kind of kryptonite against Patrick freakin’ Mahomes. I’m just telling you that he’s been less effective against zone than man this season, and since the Eagles major in zone, there’s no reason for them to change what they normally do. The Chiefs player to watch when the Eagles play zone? You already know—it’s Kelce. He leads the team with 616 receiving yards when opponents play zone. Kelce is a master at finding open space and green grass, even if that means abandoning the route he was supposed to run on any given play call. For the Eagles, this isn’t about identifying one defender who can match up with Kelce in man coverage. It’s about knowing where he is and plastering him when playing zone. Easier said than done!
9. Then there’s the age-old question: To blitz or not to blitz? The Eagles have not been a big blitzing team, rushing more than four defenders just 18.7 percent of the time this season, which ranks 29th. But like any self-respecting, curmudgeonly defensive coordinator, Fangio sometimes gets frustrated when his four-man pass rush isn’t getting home and sends blitzes, possibly fueled by his emotions. That might not be a good idea against Mahomes for two reasons. One, Mahomes has produced the eighth-highest success rate against the blitz this season. Mahomes’s sack rate when teams blitz (5.1 percent) is actually lower than it is when teams rush four or fewer players (6.4 percent). And two, the Eagles haven’t been very good when they have blitzed, ranking just 18th in EPA per pass play. When they rush four or fewer, they rank second.
10. All right, hopefully I’ve convinced you by now that Fangio won’t blitz Mahomes at a high rate. So then the question becomes: Can the Eagles’ rush get home with four? The Chiefs had a revolving door at left tackle for most of the season but seem to have found a solution by sliding Thuney over. But another result of that move is that they got worse at left guard, replacing the All-Pro Thuney with Mike Caliendo. The matchup between the Eagles’ defensive tackles and the interior of the Chiefs’ offensive line will be big in this game. The Eagles’ best defensive player is Jalen Carter, but he almost exclusively lines up at left defensive tackle, which would match Carter up with Chiefs standout right guard Trey Smith. Kansas City’s ideal scenario would be Smith handling Carter one-on-one so that center Creed Humphrey can help Caliendo against whoever is lining up at right defensive tackle for Philadelphia. One under-the-radar-ish player to watch for the Eagles is Milton Williams, whose 44 pressures rank third on the team. If he gets one-on-ones against Caliendo, the Eagles need him to win.
11. One thing that defensive coaches love to talk about that applies to most quarterbacks but doesn’t really apply to Mahomes: It’s not about sacks. It’s about pressuring the quarterback and moving him off his spot.
This is not really the case here. Pressure affects every quarterback, but it affects Mahomes less than almost anyone else at the position. He ranks third among starters in success rate when pressured. For the Eagles, it’s not about making Mahomes uncomfortable. It’s about finishing their rushes and producing negative plays. Mahomes will never take a lot of sacks, but this season, he has taken sacks at a higher rate (6.1 percent) than ever before. Again, it’s not about disruption. It’s about getting Mahomes on the ground.
12. Another thing that defensive coaches love to talk about that applies to most quarterbacks but doesn’t really apply to Mahomes: We just need to get him in third-and-long.
No again! Mahomes hasn’t gotten the same accolades this year that he’s received in previous seasons. But one way to measure quarterback play is to assess how they perform when the defense knows the offense has to pass. And there’s still nobody better in those situations than Mahomes. On third and fourth down, he has the highest success rate in the NFL this season. If you want to look at third and fourth down with 6-plus yards to go, he’s first in success rate by a mile. Mahomes has converted in those situations 51 percent of the time. No other quarterback with at least 100 dropbacks in the past five years has been above 50 percent for a season, including playoff games. The Eagles defense doesn’t have many weaknesses, but one area where it’s been at least a little vulnerable is in those late-down passing situations. Against pass plays on third and fourth downs, the Eagles defense ranks 12th in success rate. In the playoffs, we’ve seen Fangio break out wrinkles on late downs with unscouted looks that have caught opponents off guard because the Eagles have not previously shown them on film. He’ll need to have a couple of those ready in this game against Mahomes.
13. The Eagles have two things going for them on defense. One, they can play suffocating coverage. This isn’t the old-school zone coverage where you drop to an area of the field and wait for a receiver to come to you. Eagles defenders are tasked with recognizing route combinations, passing routes off, playing tight to receivers, and making life hard for opposing quarterbacks. The other thing they have going for them is that they are terrific at tackling. Next Gen Stats uses a metric called yards after catch over expectation. Through tracking data, it measures how many yards a receiver should gain after the catch on each completion versus how many yards a defense actually allows. The two best YAC-over-expectation teams? The Chiefs and the Eagles.
14. You might have noticed that I haven’t written a single thing about the Chiefs’ run game so far. That’s because I don’t think it’ll be a big factor in this game. The Chiefs have been a pass-heavy team. On early downs, they have thrown the ball over 58 percent of the time, which ranks second, behind only the Bengals. Kansas City uses its short passing game and RPOs as a replacement for its run game. When the Chiefs do run the ball, they rank 12th in efficiency. The Eagles defense, meanwhile, ranks second against the run. There are a lot of players who deserve credit for that, but two key ones are Baun and DeJean. Baun can line up as an off-ball linebacker or on the edge, allowing the Eagles to use different fronts without changing personnel. DeJean, their rookie slot corner, has allowed the Eagles to stay in nickel personnel and still hold up well against the run.
Bottom line: While anything can happen in a one-game sample, the Eagles’ run defense has a big edge against the Chiefs’ traditional run game. Kansas City might need to get a little gimmicky with things like jet sweeps to Worthy or designed runs with Mahomes to manufacture yards on the ground. Overall, I’d expect the Chiefs to keep the ball in Mahomes’s hands and throw early and often.
15. Ready to move to the other side of the ball? OK, good. Here, we have to start with the Philadelphia run game. The Eagles have run the ball on early downs at the second-highest rate of any offense in the NFL. They employ a diverse rushing attack that can feature zone runs or gap-scheme runs, depending on the opponent and the game plan. The Eagles have probably the best run-blocking offensive line in the NFL, and they can use Hurts both on option runs and designed runs. It helps that their run game coordinator is also their offensive line coach: Jeff Stoutland. In their previous two matchups against Kansas City defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo, the Eagles had Miles Sanders, Kenneth Gainwell, and D’Andre Swift as their running backs, but under Stoutland’s direction, that average group of backs still produced highly efficient rushing performances. Last season against the Chiefs, the Eagles produced a 90th-percentile rushing performance based on success rate, and Super Bowl LVII was an 88th-percentile performance.
16. Saquon Barkley behind this offensive line has been a revelation. Some opponents have chosen to stack the box in the hope of containing him, but that can be dangerous because if Barkley breaks through the first line of the defense, it’s over. He has six runs of 50-plus yards, which is not only the most by a back this season but the second most by any back in the past 25 years (Adrian Peterson had seven in 2012). The other option for defenses is to play with defenders at different levels to limit the chances of a Barkley home run, but then you run the risk of getting gashed through a series of 6- or 8-yard gains. The Chiefs have had a solid run defense, ranking ninth in DVOA, and their defense has been the fifth best at limiting explosive runs. But they face a monumental challenge in trying to keep Barkley in check.
17. If I had to choose just one matchup that I think will determine who wins this game, it would be the Eagles’ passing game against the Chiefs’ pass defense. Let’s start with Hurts and Co. It’s been an uneven season for that group. New offensive coordinator Kellen Moore was supposed to come in and fix the passing game issues, but that didn’t happen. The Eagles ranked 14th in passing DVOA, which was tied for their lowest ranking in any season with Hurts as the starter. Hurts had turnover issues early in the season and then seemed to prioritize turnover avoidance above everything else. He’s been cautious, turning down throws and not even attempting the downfield shots that had led to success in previous seasons. It hasn’t necessarily been a bad passing game. It’s just been a mediocre passing game.
But there have been glimmers of hope, such as the Eagles’ offensive performance in the NFC championship game, in which they scored eight touchdowns. The Eagles leaned on RPOs and schemed up easy completions that had Hurts playing more decisively and got the ball out of his hands quickly. He took shots downfield to guys like A.J. Brown and Dallas Goedert. It was a reminder that the passing game doesn’t need to be a juggernaut; it just needs to be efficient enough to properly complement the run game. That will be the key in this matchup against the Chiefs.
18. Having said that, there’s a nightmare scenario for Eagles fans—one in which Spagnuolo has Hurts completely flustered. Bad things happen to Philadelphia when Hurts holds on to the ball. The Eagles have had entire possessions this season destroyed by sacks, throwaways, and scrambles. In Super Bowl LVII, Hurts got the better of Spagnuolo, throwing for 304 yards and rushing for 70 more as the Eagles went up and down the field against Kansas City. But when the two teams faced off last season, it was a different story. Hurts was sacked five times, and the Eagles managed just 124 net passing yards. It was the fifth-worst dropback success rate he’s ever produced in a single game. Two different games and two very different performances. Hurts played well in the first one, but the Eagles lost. Hurts struggled in the second one, but the Eagles won. Now we get to see what the third round looks like.
19. Spagnuolo is a master at creating confusion. The key here is Spagnuolo’s pressure plan. He can create chaos with his blitzes (more on that in a second), but he can also do so with the illusion of pressure. Spagnuolo broke into the NFL with the Eagles and coached under legendary defensive coordinator Jim Johnson. One of the trademarks of Johnson’s defenses was his willingness to send any of his 11 defenders at the quarterback at any given time. Spagnuolo is the same way. In last season’s matchup, Spagnuolo’s deployment of “creepers” put the Eagles in a blender. A creeper is a nontraditional rusher like a defensive back or an off-ball linebacker who lines up in his normal spot before the snap but then rushes the quarterback. In these packages, a defensive lineman then drops into coverage. The idea is that you still rush four and drop seven, but the offense struggles to identify which four players are rushing. The Eagles struggled with these calls against the Chiefs last season and will need to execute better against them in this game.
20. Of course, Spagnuolo will also have snaps where he just sends the house. The Eagles were a disaster against big blitzes in 2023. It’s the one area of the passing game that has improved with Moore, but it’s still not perfect. Hurts ranks 16th in DVOA against the blitz this season. The big issue when teams blitz him? Sacks. When opponents have blitzed, Hurts has taken a sack 13.2 percent of the time—the highest mark of any starter in the NFL. Moore needs to give Hurts answers for getting the ball out of his hands quickly against the Chiefs’ big blitzes. Throwaways and incompletions won’t be the end of the world. But sacks are drive killers.
21. From a coverage standpoint, the Chiefs have a diverse menu of passing calls—especially on late downs. They play all of the following coverages at least 10 percent of the time on late downs (in order of frequency):
Cover 1: Man coverage with a single high safety.
Cover 3: A three-deep zone with four underneath defenders.
Cover 4: A four-deep zone with three underneath defenders.
Cover 2: A two-deep zone with five underneath defenders.
Cover Zero: An all-out blitz with man coverage and no deep safety.
The point here is that Hurts will have to sort things out on the fly because it’s hard to get a bead on the Chiefs’ tendencies. To be clear, the Chiefs have not had a great passing defense, and they rank 17th in DVOA. From a talent standpoint, the Eagles have a definite advantage. But from a scheme standpoint, Kansas City is difficult to prepare for.
22. So what will Spagnuolo lean into for this game? On the season, the Chiefs have played man coverage at the 12th-highest rate, but that might not be the best option for this matchup. Here’s a look at how Hurts has performed against man and zone coverages.
Jalen Hurts’s Performance Against Man Vs. Zone Coverage This Season
Hurts has been much better against man coverage this season. When he can pick a matchup that he likes, he can deliver the ball with accuracy and carve opponents up. Zone coverages—specifically with two deep safeties—have made his life more difficult. That’s when we see a more hesitant, indecisive version of Hurts. He sometimes plays like he’s terrified to make a mistake, and he targets the middle of the field at the lowest rate in the league.
Spagnuolo won’t do just one thing. He will mix up coverages and pick his spots to be aggressive. But I would expect him to lean into Cover 2 and other split-safety zone coverages more than he usually does.
23. When the Chiefs play zone, the Eagles receiver to keep an eye on is DeVonta Smith. His 703 receiving yards against zone coverage are tops on the team. Smith has terrific instincts and a feel for open space. He’s a savvy route runner who knows how to find the voids in zone coverage. When the Chiefs are in man coverage, the player to watch is A.J. Brown. His 529 yards against man coverage are tops on the team, and Brown averaged 4.04 yards per route run against man, which ranked first in the entire NFL. The Chiefs face tough decisions about how to match up when they play man. Will they put standout corner Trent McDuffie on Brown? Or on Smith? The Eagles will have an advantage at the other spot against Jaylen Watson or Chamarri Conner. Throw in tight end Dallas Goedert and Barkley, and the Eagles should have a clear advantage with their one-on-one matchups against Chiefs defenders.
24. Up front, the player that the Eagles can’t let wreck the game is Kansas City defensive lineman Chris Jones. Part of the challenge will be figuring out where Jones is lining up and adjusting the protection accordingly. This season, Jones has logged over 100 snaps at the following spots: left defensive end, left defensive tackle, right defensive tackle, and right defensive end. Mekhi Becton has been a pleasant surprise for the Eagles at right guard, but he’s been much better as a run blocker than a pass blocker. Him vs. Jones in one-on-one situations will give Kansas City the advantage.
One reason why Spagnuolo’s pressure schemes and blitz packages are so integral to the Chiefs’ success is that the defense has not been a great unit when it’s had to rush four or fewer players. When the Chiefs don’t blitz, they rank 30th in EPA per pass play, and their pressure rate ranks 27th. In other words, this can’t be a “line up and play” game for the Chiefs defense. The talent advantage swings too far in the Eagles’ favor for that type of game plan.
25. Let’s close with the coaching matchup. The Eagles had a .583 winning percentage in 14 seasons with Reid as their head coach. They made the Super Bowl once and never won it. In 12 seasons with the Chiefs, Reid’s produced a .730(!) winning percentage, made the Super Bowl four times, and won it three times. Now Reid is attempting to do something that’s never been done before: three-peat. Reid’s ability to scheme and game-plan has long been elite. During his time with the Eagles, he got dinged for his game management, but Mahomes has covered up for that shortcoming in Kansas City. The nightmare scenario for Eagles fans is that Reid comes up with some new creative wrinkle that the Chiefs unveil at the perfect time. The day after, Reid reveals that it was called something like “the chicken finger delight” and tells reporters that he drew it up on a napkin that morning. Reid’s legacy as one of the NFL’s all-time greatest coaches is safe. But doing something that no team has ever done before would be special.
And then we have Nick Sirianni. It was no secret that he came into the season coaching for his job. All Sirianni did in response was go 14-3 and lead the Eagles to their second Super Bowl in three seasons. In a wild twist, the Eagles actually have a better winning percentage (.599) in the 12 seasons since Reid left than they did with him as their head coach. Sirianni is already the only coach in franchise history to get to the Super Bowl twice, and he’s trying to join Doug Pederson as the only Eagles coach to win it. In the last Super Bowl matchup against Reid, Sirianni erred on the conservative side with some of his in-game decision-making. But recently, we’ve seen more and more coaches who face the Chiefs take the approach of: Don’t give Mahomes the ball back with a chance to win it under any circumstances.
Like I said at the top, I think we’ll get a close game. And both of these coaches could be faced with decisions that test their willingness to be aggressive when the stakes are the highest and legacies are on the line. Can’t wait for Sunday? Yeah, me neither.
