Nobody wanted a Chiefs-Eagles Super Bowl. Philly fans didn’t want to see Patrick Mahomes again after the Eagles lost to him in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. Chiefs fans would rather have played Washington. The only people happy about this matchup are the Kelces. And so we turn to the prop bet market to help us have a little fun with this game.
Let’s get a caveat out of the way: You probably won’t win money after reading this column. I am not a professional gambler. If I were, I probably wouldn’t have a section in here on the color of Tom Brady’s tie (spoiler: black has 12-to-1 odds). But if you want to have a chaotic and enjoyable Sunday night, these props are for you.
Player Props
Jalen Hurts to score a rushing/receiving touchdown (-115)
I am usually seduced by the most extravagant props out there, but this one stopped me in my tracks. Hurts has 18 rushing touchdowns in 18 games this season. Two years ago, during the other season that ended with a Philly-Chiefs Super Bowl, Hurts also had 18 rushing touchdowns in 18 games. Throughout his playoff career, Hurts has nine rushing touchdowns in eight games. You’d think you’d see worse odds here for the guy who gets shoved into the end zone every game by a literal ton of football players.
Jalen Hurts to score two touchdowns (6-to-1)
Jalen Hurts to score three touchdowns (28-to-1)
Look, he had three touchdowns in the last game he played. I know that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll have three in this one, but still. As of last week, the prop for Hurts to score three times in the Super Bowl was 37-to-1. Don’t think it’s impossible!
Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley to both score a touchdown same-game parlay (2-to-1)
Jalen Hurts and Saquon Barkley to both score two touchdowns (34-to-1)
Perhaps you have heard that Barkley’s birthday is Super Bowl Sunday. Perhaps you have also heard that Barkley and Hurts ran for six combined touchdowns against Washington in the NFC championship game. Not everything has to be complicated.
Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown (+145)
Xavier Worthy to clock over 18.5 miles per hour as a ballcarrier (-172)
Xavier Worthy to score a touchdown in the first half (+330)
Xavier Worthy to be the first player to 10 rushing yards (+2500)
The first Chiefs touchdown of this season came on a 21-yard rush by Worthy. Worthy, who recorded the fastest 40-yard dash in the history of the NFL combine in 2024, got the ball on an end-around as Chiefs blockers set up a lane, and he basically 20-yard-dashed from the line of scrimmage into the end zone. It was the first touch of his NFL career.
The Chiefs have scripted touches for Worthy early in games because (a) he is fast and (b) it forces defenses to respect Worthy’s motions the rest of the way. I like the odds of Andy Reid, coming off a bye week, having a big, scripted run play for Worthy on Kansas City’s opening drive. So all you need in order to have a real shot at hitting the “first player to 10 rushing yards” bet is for the Chiefs to get the ball first. Boom, 25-to-1 odds. Plus, if the play looks anything like Worthy’s first career score, you could simultaneously hit the over on the 18.5 mph prop.
Even if neither of those bets hits, Worthy has four touchdowns in his last six games, and I love his odds to score—first-half odds are 3-to-1, multiple touchdowns are 11-to-1.
DeVonta Smith 50 or more receiving yards (-114)
DeVonta Smith 60 or more receiving yards (+144)
DeVonta Smith 70 or more receiving yards (+225)
DeVonta Smith 80 or more receiving yards (+325)
DeVonta Smith 90 or more receiving yards (+460)
DeVonta Smith 100 or more receiving yards (+670)
I think the Chiefs defense will do its best to plug the run, stop Barkley, and force Hurts to beat it by throwing. And to avoid All-Pro cornerback Trent McDuffie in the Kansas City secondary, the Eagles will likely opt to target Chamarri Conner, a former fourth-round pick out of Virginia Tech. To do so, Philly may align Smith, a former Heisman winner at Alabama, in ways that will match him up with Conner. So it’s worth laddering Smith’s alternate receiving totals—i.e., instead of putting all your money on Smith’s over/under, you chop it up and sprinkle it over each of these overs at higher odds.
Justin Watson to record the longest reception in the game (35-to-1)
Watson is not playing as many snaps for the Chiefs now that Hollywood Brown is back in the lineup, Worthy is starting, and the team is rotating in Watson and DeAndre Hopkins. But Watson may have more deep-ball chemistry with Mahomes than Worthy or Brown, and if the Eagles play more man coverage in this game and allow Mahomes to take shots, Watson might be the one to reel in the deep ball. His 35-to-1 odds in this category are similar to those of Grant Calcaterra. But having watched Watson on the Chiefs the past few years, he definitely deserves more respect.
Jalen Carter to record a sack, cause a fumble, and recover the fumble on the same play (80-to-1)
This is probably a very silly, bad bet that you should not make, but I keep thinking about how the Chiefs’ starting left guard in this game will be an NPC named “Mike Caliendo.” Caliendo is, as far as I know, not related to the impressions guy Frank Caliendo. But I am concerned that Mike Caliendo will, at some point, have to block Carter on his own. In fact, I think much of the Eagles’ defensive game plan up front will be trying to get Carter, one of the three best defensive tackles in the NFL, on Caliendo, an undrafted free agent who has three starts in three seasons.
National Anthem Prop
Jon Batiste to sing the national anthem in under 120.5 seconds (+114)
When Batiste did the anthem at the 2017 NBA All-Star Game, he clocked in right around 120 seconds—including an opening piano flourish.
He was easily under 120 seconds at the U.S. Open in 2017:
But here’s the wrinkle—what if he adds instrumentals again?
The fine print on these bets varies by company, but FanDuel’s timer starts on the first note (voice or instrument) and ends on the last. So if Batiste goes rogue, all bets—literally and figuratively—could be off.
Halftime Show Prop
Kendrick Lamar to open the halftime show with the song:
“Humble” (-155)
“Not Like Us” (+200)
“squabble up” (+300)
“Swimming Pools (Drank)” (+600)
“Bitch, Don’t Kill My Vibe” (+700)
“Money Trees” (+800)
“N95” (+1200)
“United in Grief” (+2000)
“King Kunta” (+2000)
“Alright” (+2400)
“wacced out murals” (+2500)
“Like That” (+3300)
“Backseat Freestyle” (+3300)
“m.A.A.d city” (+4000)
“euphoria” (+5000)
“Element.” (+5000)
“All the Stars” (+6600)
“The Blacker the Berry” (+6600)
“Duckworth.” (+6600)
“Rigamortus” (+6600)
There’s no value in betting “Humble.” at -155. Ditto for “Not Like Us.” That will be the last song. It has to be. He can’t open with “AAAAA MINORRRRR” and do other stuff afterward.
Lamar’s new album, GNX, is good, but I don’t think he’ll start this show with any newish songs. Anything from Mr. Morale & the Big Steppers is also not the vibe to start a Super Bowl. “Swimming Pools” is not an enticing bet at only 6-to-1 odds. And while oftentimes the first halftime show song is a big hit that the artist cuts off after a minute or so, I’m not sure “Bitch, Don’t Kill My Vibe” or “Money Trees” quite fits.
That brings me to three songs on this list that I think are grossly mispriced. First, “Backseat Freestyle” at 33-to-1 is a perfect bet. It has a sonically unique opening that immediately makes you perk up, and it is also an ideal song to start strong with and then cut away from after 45 seconds. Ditto for “m.A.A.d city” (40-to-1), which immediately establishes what Kendrick sounds like before he can switch to a different song. Both songs also cover Kendrick’s early life and thematically make sense as openers.
Similarly, “Alright” at 24-to-1 feels too low. It is hard to imagine Kendrick playing a halftime show and not doing “Alright” at some point. If he does seven songs, “Alright” will be one of them, and it’s somehow 24-to-1. Also, the music video for “Alright” literally has Kendrick flying, and they could fly him in for the beginning of the show.
Bet “m.A.A.d city,” “Backseat Freestyle,” and “Alright” here.
Tom Brady’s Tie Color Prop
Here are our options:
Blue (+175)
Gray/silver (+300)
No tie (+320)
Red (+600)
Black (+1200)
Green (+1200)
Pink (+1200)
Yellow (+1200)
Brady probably isn’t leaning into gray or silver because it would evoke his Raiders minority ownership, which is something he almost certainly doesn’t want to remind people of during the broadcast.
Red and green are out. There is no chance he wears a tie with Chiefs or Eagles colors. No tie is anarchy. Pink would be a shock. That leaves three real options.
Blue +175
Yellow +1200
Black +1200
How do we not hammer black in this situation? All we need is Brady wearing a black suit with a black tie. Black is neutral. Blue is obviously the favorite, but it’s not 12 times more likely than black. (I’m not even acknowledging yellow—it would wash out his fake tan.) Feel free to bet both blue and black and walk away rich—maybe even rich enough to get your own stake in the Raiders.
