The Kansas City Chiefs opened the 2024-25 NFL regular season with a thrilling last-second victory over the Ravens. Two hundred and eighty-three football games later, the Chiefs have the opportunity to make history by becoming the first franchise to win three consecutive Super Bowls.
For the third straight year, the triumvirate of Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, and Steve Spagnuolo will face an NFC challenger widely considered to have the more well-rounded roster.
Their opponent, the Philadelphia Eagles, has a chance to become the only team to beat both Mahomes and Tom Brady—the quarterbacks who led two of the most successful football dynasties of this century—in the postseason. Just by reaching the Super Bowl, Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts has already made some modern history of his own. None of the last 19 quarterbacks who lost their first Super Bowl appearance (like Hurts and the Eagles did against the Chiefs in 2023) have ever made it back in their careers. This dates back to Jim Kelly and those infamous Bills teams of the 1990s. While the Eagles passing offense has drawn some criticism throughout the season, the Eagles have retooled since that loss two years ago by improving their defense and adding rushing savant Saquon Barkley to the mix.
Your Guide to Betting the Super Bowl
After spending months in the lab dissecting every aspect of football played this season (and suffering from analysis paralysis after having two weeks to discuss one football game), it’s time to lock in for Super Bowl LIX.
It might not be the Super Bowl matchup many wanted, but it might just be the Super Bowl we deserve for the new, great American dynasty.
All lines referenced are from FanDuel as of Friday morning, unless otherwise noted.
Chiefs Offense Vs. Eagles Defense
Mahomes and Eagles defensive coordinator Vic Fangio have a lot of history. Fangio is 0-8 against Mahomes, but as my colleague Sheil Kapadia pointed out, Mahomes’s average expected points added (EPA) per pass is 0.15 against Fangio defenses, and 0.23 against everyone else. In their first matchup last season in Germany, Fangio’s Dolphins defense had a lot of success against the Chiefs, but struggled when they met again in the playoffs in Kansas City and half of Miami’s defense was injured. (It also didn’t help that it was minus-4 degrees that night.)
Fangio’s style of defense—centered around limiting big plays—was developed as a way to counter the explosive Chiefs offenses of 2018 and 2019.
Modern defensive schemes under Fangio’s watch have forced Mahomes to be extremely methodical and matriculate the ball down the field by throwing underneath more. We’ve seen Mahomes adjust and become the master of the surgical passing drive, maintaining excellent efficiency numbers and sky-high success rates despite these adjustments from defenses.
Air Yards per Attempt (Playoffs Included)
Mahomes has finished in the bottom three in average air yards per attempt in each of the last two seasons. In his game-winning Super Bowl drive against the 49ers in overtime last season, he didn’t throw a single pass more than 5 air yards. The Eagles defense excels on early downs and forces opponents to have to consistently make third-down conversions to sustain drives. That just happens to be Mahomes’s superpower; it’s why he’s the best quarterback in the league. When you pin the Chiefs in adverse passing situations, no team is better at executing and producing a first down.
Since 2018, Mahomes's numbers on third-and-7 or more, including regular-season and postseason games, are well ahead of everyone else in the league.
EPA per Dropback, Third-and-7+, Since 2018 (Minimum 300 Dropbacks)
Their last Super Bowl head-to-head was decided in part because the Chiefs were able to shift to heavier formations and run the ball successfully against the Eagles. Mahomes only threw for 182 yards and attempted 27 passes; Kansas City’s two running backs—Isiah Pacheco and Jerick McKinnon—carried the ball 19 times for 110 yards.
I would be shocked if the Chiefs replicate that level of production against this Eagles run defense. Two years ago, the Chiefs had a bad run defense and a mediocre run offense for most of the season. But in the Super Bowl, Kansas City ended up with more rushing yards from running backs than the Eagles did.
Pacheco was a key runner for Kansas City in each of the last two seasons, but he hasn’t been efficient this season since returning from injury. Not only did Pacheco and Mahomes botch a handoff exchange that resulted in a turnover in the AFC championship game, but Pacheco has just 10 carries for 30 yards in two playoff games this year. In his last seven games, Pacheco has 83 carries for 310 yards, averaging 3.7 yards per carry. With his declining workload, and Kareem Hunt’s consistent ability to grind out modest gains and keep the Chiefs run offense going, I don’t think Pacheco will play a significant role in this game.
Bet: Isiah Pacheco under 21.5 rush yards (-110)
Predicting the usage of the Chiefs’ pass-catching options in any game can feel like a fool's errand. Two weeks ago, Buffalo’s defense exhibited a clear weakness over the middle of the field. However, after cornerback Christian Benford left the game with an injury, the Chiefs relentlessly targeted his backup, Kaiir Elam. And so Travis Kelce, who in theory had a great matchup against Buffalo, only had 19 yards, while JuJu Smith-Schuster had two catches for 60 yards, and Xavier Worthy was their leading receiver. Worthy’s rushing yards have been a popular prop bet mentioned throughout the playoffs, but you’re paying a real premium now at 5.5 yards, up from under 5 in the past two playoff games.
If you’re like me and you don’t mind paying a little juice, I think Mahomes at -140 to not throw an interception is a good bet. With his lowered air yards, his risk levels are considerably lower than odds would suggest.
Bet: Patrick Mahomes no interception (-140)
Eagles Offense Vs. Chiefs Defense
As we shift our focus to the other side of the matchup, all eyes should be on Saquon Barkley, who has scored three long touchdown runs this postseason. When facing this Eagles offense, defensive coordinators have a tough decision to make: Do you load the box, bring safeties down, and try to stop the run at the line of scrimmage, while risking giving up the home run if Barkley breaks through? Or do you allow the Eagles to have more consistent success play-by-play while trying to prevent the long run?
It’s crucial to consider the circumstances surrounding Barkley’s long rushes in the playoffs. The Commanders had one of the worst defenses in the league this season, particularly in allowing big runs. The Rams had to deal with snowy conditions, which favor ballcarriers and make tackling more difficult. Additionally, L.A.’s defense ranked 21st in rush DVOA.
I believe Barkley’s statistics on Sunday are more likely to resemble his performances against the Ravens in the regular season and the Packers in the wild-card round. Against Green Bay, Barkley had 25 carries for 119 yards. Against Baltimore, he carried it 23 times for 107 yards. He could make this entire paragraph look silly with one explosive run, but the Chiefs are no. 1 in the league in tackling, per PFF, and they are top-five at preventing explosive plays as a whole. The Eagles may find it difficult to produce game-changing rush explosives.
We now have a clearer understanding of what to expect from the Chiefs offense (slow-moving, efficiency machine, few explosives) and Eagles defense (elite, well-coached, prevents explosives) at this stage. This aspect of the matchup is more predictable than the Eagles offense versus the Chiefs defense. Spagnuolo likes to bring pressure. Hurts has improved against the blitz this season compared to past years, but his numbers when pressured this year aren’t as strong. The Chiefs have already demonstrated their ability to bring pressure and exploit a sack-prone quarterback in the divisional round against C.J. Stroud and the Texans. Although the Eagles may be better equipped to handle blitzes and have more skill position talent than Houston, Hurts faces a similar sack issue as Stroud.
Hurts is one of three quarterbacks with a higher sack rate this season (10.2 percent) than Stroud’s 9.6 percent.
We have seen Hurts face against Spagnuolo twice in the past two seasons. In the Super Bowl in 2023, Hurts performed at a remarkably high level on third down, extending drives with throws into tight windows. Philly went 11-of-18 on third down, and scored 35 points in a last-second loss.
The second encounter occurred on Monday Night Football in 2023. The Eagles went 3-for-11 on third down, scored 21 points, and Hurts was sacked five times. Despite the challenges, the Eagles managed to win that game, 21-17.
One interesting aspect of this matchup is how the Chiefs will choose to defend the Eagles’ supremely talented pass catchers. Barkley will likely stay in to pick up key blitzes, leaving Dallas Goedert, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith as the only receiving threats. Kansas City prefers to play man and bring pressure. Even if they decide to play more zone in this game, the strength of the Chiefs lies on the outside with corners Trent McDuffie and Jaylen Watson.
The door is wide open for Hurts to utilize Goedert over the middle, against the blitz, and as a way to get easy-button completions. We’ve seen Goedert featured in every playoff game, and his receiving total is still too low.
Bet: Dallas Goedert over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
Special Teams
If you ask any Eagles fan for the biggest concern with their team entering the Super Bowl, most will say kicker Jake Elliott, who finished the season 1-for-7 on kicks of 50-plus yards. He has missed three extra points and a field goal in three playoff games. He will benefit from kicking in an indoor environment as opposed to the cold outdoor games in Philadelphia throughout January.
My favorite special teams prop here comes on the other side of the kicking game. I think the Chiefs’ red zone offense will be a struggle for them. Kansas City ranked 22nd in red zone touchdown percentage this season, their lowest red zone efficiency of the Mahomes and Reid era.
Kansas City’s difficulty running the ball will hinder their performance in the low red zone, similar to the Rams’ struggles to convert in the red zone against the Eagles. Mahomes may rely on his legs, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the Chiefs end up attempting multiple field goals.
Bet: Harrison Butker o7.5 kicking points (-130)
Who Wins on Sunday?
The Chiefs have been tied or trailing at halftime in all four of their Super Bowl appearances in this era, yet they have won three of them. Kansas City’s ability to make adjustments on both sides of the ball leaves me seeing no reason to bet against them on Sunday.
Could the Chiefs lose? Of course. In fact, I see more scenarios where the Eagles dominate both sides of the line of scrimmage and win by multiple scores than the inverse. But when the chips are down, there’s one stat I simply cannot overlook.
It’s not that the Chiefs have won every one-score game they’ve played for 14 months. It’s not Mahomes’s record against the spread as an underdog or favorite of less than 3 points.
At some point, these quarterbacks will be put in difficult situations where they will be forced to pass the ball. Mahomes is the best QB in the NFL on 3rd-and 7 or more, while Hurts has a negative EPA per dropback for his career in those situations. He could play one of the best games of his career, like he did in the last Super Bowl. If he performs that well, the Eagles will probably win.
Either way, I’ll be riding with Mahomes and Kansas City. And as for that all-important coin toss? Heads.
Other Notes
I bet the second-half under basically every Chiefs game. It’s now 30-10 in the last 40 Chiefs games, and I have a lot of faith in both defensive coordinators. The same goes for Jalen Hurts scoring a touchdown in an Eagles game. I don’t think the Chiefs' successful stops against Josh Allen mean anything for this matchup against the originators of the Brotherly Shove.
And for anyone wondering, I’ll be watching the Super Bowl at a watch party with family and friends just outside of Philadelphia. And much like two years ago, I’ll be sitting in the back of the room silently hoping for Patrick Mahomes to make history. It’s nothing personal, it’s just Mahomes.
Bets I’ve made for the Super Bowl:
Chiefs ML (-120)
Props:
Coin toss: Heads (+100)
Harrison Butker over 7.5 kicking points (-130)
Dallas Goedert over 49.5 receiving yards (-110)
Patrick Mahomes no interceptions (-140)
Jalen Hurts anytime touchdown (-110)
Isiah Pacheco under 21.5 rush yards (-110)
Second half under 23.5 (+110)
Eagles win first half / Chiefs win game (+750)
