We’re still a week away from the official start of the new NFL year, with free agency beginning March 12. But the trade season is already underway. The Commanders and 49ers kicked off the festivities by agreeing to a deal that sent Deebo Samuel to Washington for a fifth-round draft pick. And before that deal was announced Saturday night, a seemingly endless list of players had already been granted permission by their current teams to seek trades—a list that includes former Pro Bowlers and first-round picks. We’ve seen an increase in trades in the NFL over the last few years as teams have gotten more creative when building their rosters, and it seems like the 2025 offseason will continue that trend, given all the trade-related news and rumors we’ve heard in recent weeks. So, let’s take a look at how the trade market is shaping up by trying to answer five major questions.
With Matthew Stafford off the board, who’s left at quarterback?
The quarterback trade market was already on a shaky foundation entering the NFL scouting combine, but it may have collapsed entirely after the week in Indianapolis. Matthew Stafford and the Rams worked through their differences and restructured the 37-year-old’s deal to keep him in Los Angeles for at least one more season—after Stafford met up with Raiders minority owner Tom Brady in the Montana mountains and garnered serious interest from the Giants—which took the top trade target at the position off the board. The possibility of a Sam Darnold tag-and-trade has also diminished with reports out of Indy suggesting the Vikings will let him test the free agent market. And assuming the Jets cut Aaron Rodgers after publicly announcing they wouldn’t be bringing him back in 2025, Kirk Cousins and Derek Carr are the two top trade options for QB-needy teams looking for a starting-level vet. Yet even Cousins and Carr may be unrealistic candidates, given their respective contracts.
Falcons general manager Terry Fontenot has said the plan is to keep Cousins as a backup to Michael Penix Jr. in 2025, which is hard to buy with Cousins sporting a $40 million cap hit. That would make him the highest-paid backup in NFL history by a comfortable margin. It sounds like a pretty sweet gig for Cousins, but it makes little sense for a Falcons team that should look to maximize Penix’s rookie contract window. So despite Fontenot’s assurances, Atlanta may shop Cousins on the trade market or cut him if it can’t find a suitor. Further complicating matters, Cousins also has a no-trade clause built into his contract, so if the Falcons go the trade route, they’d also have to find a trade partner that Cousins wants to work with. In other words, there’s no real incentive for a team to give up draft capital to land the veteran quarterback, since he would presumably sign with the team of his choice when/if Atlanta cuts its losses and releases him. Plus, with the Falcons still on the hook for a large chunk of the contract he signed with the team last offseason, Cousins will presumably take a league minimum deal with his next club, as Russell Wilson did with the Steelers last year after Denver cut ties.
Saints general manager Mickey Loomis publicly backed Carr as the team’s 2025 starter last week, but that was before the Rams made Stafford unavailable. Now that Carr is perhaps the most attractive option out there, the cash-strapped Saints may want to reconsider. A team desperate for a quarterback might be willing to part ways with a day two pick to land the 33-year-old, and trading Carr would free up $11.3 million in cap space for New Orleans. Cutting him would save just over $1.3 million this season while leaving behind a dead cap charge of $50.1 million. If the Saints get an opportunity to trade Carr, they should jump at it.
Whether teams like the Giants or Jets should try to land him is another question. Carr doesn’t lack the physical ability to play at a high level, as evidenced by his fast start to the 2024 season, which included a number of impressive downfield throws. If you can protect Carr with a strong offensive line, he can play at a Pro Bowl level. But that’s true for a lot of NFL quarterbacks, including a number who don’t come with a $30 million price tag. And with Darnold, Cousins, Aaron Rodgers, Justin Fields, and Russell Wilson headed for free agency, teams won’t be lining up to cough up draft picks and a large chunk of their cap to acquire a quarterback who has zero career playoff wins.
In other words, it’s unlikely we’ll be seeing any major trades involving quarterbacks this offseason.
What does the Deebo Samuel trade tell us about the receiver market?
Samuel was first-team All-Pro just four seasons ago. In 2022, the 49ers made him one of the league’s highest-paid receivers, signing him to a three-year, $73.5 million deal. And in 2023, he was a key member of a record-setting offense that nearly won San Francisco its sixth Super Bowl. But after a down 2024 season, the 49ers unceremoniously shipped Samuel off to Washington for just a fifth-round pick. The trade was a harsh reminder of how quickly a player’s value can fall in this league, and it might also give us some idea of how other veteran receivers could be valued this offseason. A fifth-rounder seems to be the going rate for big-name receivers who are clearly past their best days. Months before Samuel fetched that for San Francisco, the Titans were able to swap DeAndre Hopkins for one in a midseason trade with Kansas City. The Jets sent Mike Williams to Pittsburgh for a fifth in November.
Those trades should set the market for Cooper Kupp, whom the Rams gave permission to seek a trade this offseason. Kupp is two years older than Samuel but was more productive as a pass catcher in 2024, hauling in 67 receptions for 710 yards and six touchdowns in 12 games. Even if Kupp isn’t the receiver we saw in 2021, when he nearly had 2,000 yards and won NFL Offensive Player of the Year, he still remains a productive wideout who can work from the slot or outside. The biggest difference between the current version of Kupp and the All-Pro version we saw three years ago is his ability to beat man coverage. In 2021, he led all receivers by racking up 55.1 expected points added against man, per TruMedia. While his numbers against zone coverage are still strong, Kupp hasn’t produced a positive EPA against man in the three seasons since that record-breaking campaign. The inability to generate separation in man coverage is a sure sign of decline for receivers, and it doesn’t help that Kupp missed at least five games in each of the past three seasons due to injury. Los Angeles may be lucky to get a conditional fifth-round pick for the 31-year-old.
Kupp isn’t the only star receiver who is being publicly shopped at the moment. With Rodgers on his way out of New York, the Jets are reportedly taking calls about his buddy Davante Adams. The team would save the same amount of cap space whether it cuts or trades the veteran wideout, but Adams still has enough juice to attract potential trade partners. We already have a good idea of what it will take to get a deal done, based on the trade that landed Adams in New York last October. The Jets gave up a conditional third-rounder in that deal, and it’s unlikely the price has moved in either direction after Adams finished the season with a solid 1,063 yards and eight touchdowns. The 32-year-old remains a productive WR1, but he’s no longer the field-tilting receiver he was in Green Bay and even early on in Las Vegas. Defenses certainly did not treat him that way last season, when he was double-teamed in coverage on only seven snaps, per Pro Football Focus. That was down from 19 in 2023 and 30 in 2022.
It’s unlikely we’ll see a true blockbuster deal for a receiver. Bengals star Tee Higgins is likely to be franchise tagged for a second consecutive season, which could accelerate contract negotiations between the team and the 26-year-old. Duke Tobin, Cincinnati’s de facto general manager, said at his combine press conference that he was optimistic a long-term deal would get done. And with Joe Burrow pleading for the team to pay Higgins whenever he’s been in front of a camera this offseason, it’s starting to feel like that will happen in the coming weeks.
DK Metcalf has also been the subject of trade speculation, with rumors of Green Bay’s interest picking up steam last week. Metcalf is entering a contract year, which has fueled the rumors, but Seattle is already expected to part ways with Tyler Lockett in a cap-saving move. Dealing Metcalf as well would leave the team’s receiver room awfully thin, and the Seahawks have plenty of time to work out a long-term deal with Metcalf—or they can bide their time and offload him before the trade deadline, when teams are more desperate to acquire talent and more willing to pay marked-up prices for it.
Could the Chiefs trade Trey Smith after tagging him?
The Chiefs didn’t wait until the March 4 deadline to place the nonexclusive franchise tag on guard Trey Smith, but that doesn’t necessarily mean he’ll be in Kansas City next season. After all, the Chiefs pulled the same move with L’Jarius Sneed last offseason before trading him to the Titans a few weeks later. Because the Chiefs opted for the nonexclusive tag, Smith will be able to negotiate with other teams during free agency. If another team does decide to sign him, it would have to send two first-round picks to the Chiefs to complete the deal. As good as Smith has been, no team is going to pay that price. Given Kansas City’s past use of the nonexclusive tag, teams may not have to cough up two first-rounders to land the All-Pro guard if they trade for him instead of negotiating a deal on the open market—as Tennessee did when it sent a third-round pick to the Chiefs for Sneed last March. Dealing for Smith may be expensive in its own right, but it’s hard to set a potential asking price because we don’t typically see teams trade away top-tier guards in their prime. The closest comparisons from the past few years are Shaq Mason, whom New England sent to Tampa Bay for a fifth-rounder in 2022, and Gabe Jackson, who went from the Raiders to the Seahawks for the same compensation in 2021. Mason and Jackson were still good players at the time of those trades, but they weren’t as talented as Smith, and both were a few years older. A second-round pick could be the floor for trade negotiations.
Based on Brett Veach’s comments at the combine, Smith is likely part of Kansas City’s plans for next season, which makes sense—the team needs to keep its few solid linemen after the group’s rough showing in the Super Bowl loss to the Eagles. Offensive tackle was an issue all season for the AFC champs. Getting worse inside won’t make Patrick Mahomes’s job any easier, and making his job easier should be the team’s priority after Mahomes carried the offense on his back these past two seasons.
With Smith likely off the table, Jonah Jackson becomes the top offensive line draw. During the combine, the Rams granted him permission to seek a trade just a year after inking him to a three-year, $51 million contract. It hasn’t been long since that kind of money made sense for Jackson, but his 2024 season was bad enough to drive down the 28-year-old’s value significantly. He injured his shoulder right before training camp and then reinjured it in Week 2, landing him on short-term IR. He eventually returned but was benched due to poor play. That’s a red flag, considering L.A.’s issues along the offensive line last season. Jackson would cost a new team about $17 million in cap space next season, which is a steep price for the oft-injured guard who produced bad tape in 2024. Even getting a fifth-rounder for Jackson would be a major win for the Rams. They’ll likely have to settle for the dreaded “Ick Swap” trade to get anything in return for a player they splurged on in free agency a year ago, if not cut him outright.
Will teams talk themselves into Harold Landry III?
Myles Garrett desperately wants out of Cleveland, but the Browns front office has made it clear that’s not happening. Even if there is a team out there willing to send general manager Andrew Berry a Godfather offer for the NFL’s best defensive player, the team isn’t even taking the call, according to reports. And why should it? Garrett is under contract for two more years, and it’s unlikely the team will get fair value for the future Hall of Famer—unless there’s a team willing to give up three first-rounders for the right to make Garrett the highest-paid player in league history. Garrett might be a victim of his dominance. He’s too good to trade.
So any team looking for pass-rush help will have to turn its attention from Garrett to … Harold Landry III.
That’s a big drop-off, and if you look past Landry’s sack numbers, it’s an even bigger gap than you probably realize. While Landry, whom the Titans granted permission to seek a trade last week, has averaged 11 sacks per season over the last three, his underlying numbers suggest he’s due for some regression. He finished in the 76th percentile in sack percentage in 2024 but in the 3rd percentile in pass-rush win rate, per Pro Football Focus. Pass-rush win rates are more stable year to year compared to sack rates, and the tape backs up those numbers. Landry is a speed rusher who doesn’t have a deep bag of moves. He generates most of his sacks on stunts inside, where he’s gotten help from Tennessee’s dominant interior linemen, and clean-up plays in pursuit of scrambling quarterbacks. He’s a solid player at a position where talent is scarce, but he’s not a game-wrecking edge rusher. If his next team, which would owe Landry $35 million over the next two years, is expecting a double-digit sack guy, it may be left disappointed.
Based on recent trades of edge rushers that sport a similar statistical profile to Landry, a trade for him could fetch Tennessee a mid-round pick. The Commanders were able to land a third-rounder from San Francisco for Chase Young in 2023, and the Eagles picked up Robert Quinn from Chicago for a fourth-rounder the previous year. With some decent free agent options at edge rusher, including Super Bowl hero Josh Sweat and Khalil Mack, teams may wait to see how the open market plays out before trading draft capital for an expensive player who has a history of suspect production. And if they wait long enough, Tennessee may just cut Landry, which would save the team about $11 million in cap space.
The trade market for edge rushers is thin, but there are a couple of intriguing options on the interior, led by Washington’s Jonathan Allen, who was also granted permission to seek a trade (we could start an offseason drinking game based around that phrase at this rate). According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler, Allen’s name was included in the Samuel trade talks between the 49ers and Commanders, but he was ultimately left out of the deal. Allen is due $15.5 million in 2025, which could be prohibitive for any move unless Washington agrees to take on some of that salary. Given the Commanders’ cushy cap situation, that’s certainly a possibility. At his best, Allen can wreak havoc on an interior offensive line as both a run defender and a pass rusher. But effort has been an issue, and Allen punched teammate Daron Payne during a game in 2021, so the locker room fit could scare some teams off. If that drives down Washington’s asking price, though, a team in need of defensive line help—which describes 90 percent of the NFL—could land the first-round talent at a reduced rate.
The Patriots also gave defensive tackle Davon Godchaux permission to seek a trade last week, just a year after re-signing the 30-year-old run stuffer. Godchaux would cost his new team about $6.7 million in cap space next season, which isn’t a big number, but with a stacked defensive line class in this year’s draft and solid group available in free agency, led by Milton Williams, the Patriots won’t get much in return for the veteran defensive tackle.
What does Jaire Alexander have left?
The cornerback trade market could get a lot more interesting if Denzel Ward and Greg Newsome II, who both questioned their future with the Browns after the team’s season finale, follow Garrett’s lead and ask for their way out of Cleveland. Until then, it’s looking as if Jaire Alexander will be the big prize for any team looking for secondary help. Alexander hasn't asked for a trade, and Packers general manager Brian Gutekunst hasn’t publicly confirmed that he’s available, but Ian Rappaport reported that the team is open to dealing the talented cornerback this offseason. And when Gutekunst was asked in January whether Alexander, who has two years left on his deal, would be back next season, he said, “We’ll see.” That’s not typically how GMs talk about star players.
It’s difficult to say what the Packers could get back for Alexander. He’s played in just 14 games over the last two seasons due to injury and missed the 2024 postseason after being placed on IR. When Alexander has been out there, he’s been … fine. He still holds up well in coverage against most receivers, but he’s had his issues when asked to shadow star wideouts, including in the season opener against the Eagles when A.J. Brown roasted him for 108 yards on four catches.
It’s impossible to know how injuries have impacted Alexander’s on-field performance over the past two years, but when we last saw him fully healthy, the Packers cornerback was one of the league’s best and most reliable players at the position. Cornerback play is notoriously volatile year to year, and Alexander is just 28 years old. A healthy Alexander could be a valuable piece for a contending team. And if the trade cost is just a couple mid-round picks—which seems to be the going rate for B-level corners after Marshon Lattimore went for a third and a fourth in a deadline trade to Washington—it’s a risk worth taking. A strong draft class of corners could weaken Alexander’s trade market, but teams looking to win a title in 2025 won’t be relying on rookie corners to do so.
