The Champions League season began in September with two clear favorites: Real Madrid, who have a history of winning this tournament seemingly every year for the past decade, and Manchester City, who many believe should have already won it more than once by now.
City and Madrid have already met in the playoff round thanks to the new Champions League format introduced this season. Real Madrid has had plenty of struggles in 2024-25, but its 6-3 aggregate win against City has vaulted Los Blancos back to the top of the list of favorites. City is now out, leaving a relatively wide open field.
Liverpool has replaced Manchester City as the top contender from the Premier League. They finished at the top of the league phase and are on track to win the EPL. However, the new wrinkle in the draw has left them with one of the most difficult matchups in the Champions League round of 16.
Unlike in past years, when the draw was done round-by-round, the entire bracket is already set—the round of 16 kicks off with four matches on Tuesday and four more on Wednesday.
Before festivities get underway, I’ve ranked all 16 teams headed into the knockout stage based on their chances to lift the trophy in Munich in May.
16. Feyenoord is the longest shot.
When Milan scored in the first minute of the second leg of the playoff round, it seemed highly likely that we’d have a potential Milan derby in this matchup. Instead, Milan’s sluggish attack, Theo Hernández’s red card, and Julián Carranza’s late header put Feyenoord into the round of 16.
Under ex-manager Arne Slot, Feyenoord had come close to reaching this round of the Champions League in past years. However, after losing Slot to Liverpool and firing his replacement, Brian Priske, right before the Milan tie, Feyenoord pulled off the upset. Now, Robin van Persie is in charge in Rotterdam.
This Feyenoord team is less talented on paper than those Slot teams of the past. Feyenoord recently sold striker Santiago Gimenez to Milan, and when you add that their opponent, Inter, only conceded one goal in the entire league phase, it’s difficult to see Feyenoord generating enough offense. This should be a relatively comfortable win for Inter over two legs.
15. PSV is holding it down for the wounded Americans.
PSV has become an American outpost in Europe, with four U.S. players on the roster. However, injuries to Ricardo Pepi and Malik Tillman (plus Sergiño Dest’s long-term injury recovery) leaves Richy Ledezma as the only American expected to play in the round of 16. Ledezma has one career appearance for the USMNT, in a 2020 friendly against Panama. (Seven other Americans—two each from Celtic, Milan, and Juventus, and one from Monaco—all lost in the playoff round. The only other American left in the Champions League is Dortmund’s Gio Reyna, but he’s not getting much playing time.)
PSV is the best team in the Eredivisie by underlying metrics this season. With a squad at full strength, they could pose a real threat to a depleted Arsenal. Maybe Arsenal’s issues with chance creation are significant enough to put them on an even playing field in the tie, but there may not be a high ceiling for PSV. Arsenal beat them 5-1 in their home and away matches combined last year during the group stage.
14. Benfica: Bring the popcorn.
We can only hope that Benfica and Barcelona give us two matches as entertaining as their league phase meeting in Lisbon. There were three penalties, an own goal, a red card, a last-minute winner, a 4-2 comeback, 6.9 expected goals, and some hilarious defending. Benfica is no stranger to intense end-to-end matches, Barcelona’s preferred state. The Portuguese side played a 3-3 thriller in the second leg against Monaco in the playoff round to get here, and a 3-2 league phase game with Monaco.
Neither Sporting CP nor Benfica have xG numbers in Portugal that would suggest anything more than a team that loses in the Round of 16. This Benfica side isn’t as talented as the one that made consecutive quarterfinals in 2022 and 2023. But if they were to pull off the upset, they would benefit from Barcelona’s friendly draw and have a real shot at a semifinal.
13. Lille can’t outrun xG forever.
No one expected Lille to finish in the top eight of the Champions League group stage, and looking at their underlying statistics, it’s a bit of a miracle that they did. Lille finished with a minus-4 expected goal difference in eight matches. No other team that qualified directly in the top eight had worse than a plus-1.8 xG difference (Atlético Madrid).
There’s another world in which Lille doesn’t even make it to the playoff round, let alone finish seventh. Eight games is a small sample, but the larger sample of Ligue 1 games tells a similar story. Lille is fifth in France in the table and sixth in xG difference.
Lille won’t be able to overcome looming regression and continue outperforming xG forever. I think their run will end in the Round of 16.
12. Club Brugge is a fairy-tale story in a fairy-tale town.
Club Brugge survived elimination on the final day of the league phase, then won the first leg of the playoff round against Atalanta on a highly controversial penalty in stoppage time. Still considered the underdog to advance in the second leg at Atalanta, Brugge got an all-time goalkeeper performance from Simon Mignolet to complete the upset. Atalanta had 3.5 post-shot expected goals in the second leg and only managed to score once. Mignolet saved a penalty and helped Brugge eliminate the Europa League champions.
If they can beat Atalanta, there’s no reason they couldn’t also beat Aston Villa, right? Brugge defeated Villa, 1-0, at home in the league phase in an excellent performance. Brugge played in a defensive midblock out of possession and dared Villa to play the ball over the top. Villa finished the game with just 0.4 expected goals. The English side has struggled away from home this season, and now they travel to Brugge, a fairy-tale town where the Villans already have nightmares from earlier this season. Villa will be hoping a trip to Brugge goes better for them than it did for Colin Farrell and Brendan Gleeson.
11. Borussia Dortmund: Lightning doesn’t strike twice.
Every time I review last year’s bracket, I find it shocking that Borussia Dortmund made the final. They capitalized on a favorable draw, had a hot goalkeeper, and somehow reached the final despite finishing fifth in the Bundesliga. Dortmund beat PSV, Atlético Madrid, and PSG even though they had fewer expected goals than each team across the two legs.
Dortmund finished the Bundesliga with a plus-0.34 xG difference per 90 minutes. Through 24 games this season, they’re at plus-0.39 per match, which is significantly lower than their numbers from years past.
They already promoted and fired Nuri Şahin and turned to Bundesliga veteran Niko Kovač to improve their results. This is Kovač’s fourth managerial position in Germany. Overall, performances have improved since he took over, but the team’s talent level isn’t as strong as in past seasons when Erling Haaland, Jadon Sancho, and Jude Bellingham were their standouts.
The betting markets have them as a -150 favorite to advance against Lille. They should get past Lille, but they’ll be sizable underdogs in a potential quarterfinal against Barcelona.
10. Aston Villa: A manager’s history isn’t enough.
If we judged managers solely on their performances in European knockout cup competitions, Unai Emery would be on the European equivalent of Mount Rushmore for managers. Not only did Emery win the Europa League at Sevilla three years in a row from 2014-16, but he also won it at Villarreal in 2021. Then, Emery took Villarreal to the Champions League semifinal in 2022, beating Juventus and Bayern Munich along the way. Last year, he had Aston Villa in the Conference League semifinals.
Villa’s league form has been inconsistent all year, but they’ve made some interesting moves to strengthen their attack beyond Ollie Watkins. After selling Moussa Diaby last summer and Jhon Durán in January, the additions of Marco Asensio, Marcus Rashford, and Donyell Malen give the Villans more attacking options for the rest of the season.
Villa also has an ace in the hole if it goes to a penalty shootout: goalkeeper Emi Martínez has a stellar penalty record for Argentina and even won a shootout last year against Lille. Defensive injuries and attacking regression mean they probably won’t be top five in the Premier League, but we could see Emery go all in on an FA Cup and Champions League run down the stretch.
9. Atlético Madrid: There’s good news and bad news.
Let’s start with the bad news: Atlético Madrid got arguably the toughest draw of any team in the bracket. It finished fifth out of 36 teams and earned its place in the round of 16 with a bye. Its reward was a match against its crosstown rival, the betting favorite and defending champion considered the most talented team in the world. If Atlético manages to win that match, it will likely face Arsenal in the quarterfinals. Pretty brutal.
Now for the good news: Atlético has faced Real Madrid twice this year, with both matches ending 1-1. Their most recent game was on February 8 at Real Madrid. Atlético won’t be intimidated by Real Madrid’s Champions League aura, and perhaps no team is better prepared to neutralize Real than Atlético under Diego Simeone. By many metrics, this is the most well-rounded Atlético Madrid team Simeone has had in years.
8. Bayern Munich is on fraud watch.
If you looked at only the baseline expected goals numbers, you would consider Bayern one of the top three or four favorites to win this tournament. It had the best xG difference of all 36 teams in the league stage and the best xG difference of all 96 teams in Europe’s top five leagues. However, when you stop looking at stats, Bayern looks like a different team.
Maybe their downturn came with the 4-1 loss at Barcelona in October or the Champions League playoff round against Celtic where Bayern needed a stoppage-time goal to avoid extra time. They’ve proved throughout the group stage and Bundesliga that they’re excellent at destroying vastly inferior teams. But we just saw Bayern Munich play Leverkusen—second in the Bundesliga—on February 15, and Bayern didn’t attempt a shot until the 73rd minute.
Leverkusen and Bayern have played five times in the past two seasons, and Leverkusen has two wins, three draws, and zero defeats. The two league games in Leverkusen are the most alarming for Bayern. Leverkusen dominated Bayern in February 2024, 3-0. And the February 15 meeting this year with Bayern’s new manager, Vincent Kompany, didn’t look much different than last year’s without him. Although Leverkusen failed to score and the game ended 0-0, it outshot Bayern 15-2.
Bayern is the favorite to advance, but I am not sure it should be. Even if Bayern did advance, it’d likely need to beat Inter Milan and Barcelona to make the final. I’m placing Kompany’s team on fraud watch.
7. Bayer Leverkusen is my new dark horse.
Full disclosure: My previous dark horse was Atalanta, but it’s already been eliminated. That means I’m in the market for a new dark horse, and Leverkusen checks all the boxes. It’s not favored to beat Bayern Munich, but it’s a toss-up.
What’s the case for Leverkusen? It has a manager with an excellent European track record, as evidenced by its appearance at the Europa League final last spring. Many have overlooked the team due to their unimpressive league results this year compared to last year, when they had an unbeaten Bundesliga campaign, won the league, and were the kings of scoring late goals. (They lost only one match all year, the Europa League final to Atalanta.)
This year, however, they’ve suffered three losses: against Leipzig (Leverkusen led 2-0), at Liverpool, and against Atlético in a game featuring multiple red cards. Just because they’ve had more draws doesn’t necessarily mean they are a worse team.
Striker Victor Boniface is healthy and performing well, and Patrik Schick has been productive when Boniface hasn’t been. Additionally, Florian Wirtz is having a standout season, leading Germany with 10 assists at just 21 years old. Leverkusen doesn’t rely on pressing or dominant possession to create chances, which I appreciate in this current tactical landscape.
6. Inter Milan may have just missed its window.
Inter Milan has been my favorite European long shot over the past two years. They were major underdogs when they made it to the final and were practically even with Manchester City in a 1-0 loss. Last year, they collapsed late against Atlético Madrid in the round of 16. Inter has kept the same core for two years in a row, and it feels like the Italian side may have missed its window.
It’s not that Inter isn’t good. It has the best xG difference in Italy, and no team is a bigger favorite in the betting markets to reach the quarterfinal than Inter. The reason Inter is liked is its tactical versatility. Simone Inzaghi has so many talented passers in his squad—primarily midfield—that the team is comfortable handling an aggressive press and also more than capable of breaking down more defensive teams with its wing backs and underlapping center backs.
It’s not clear what Inter’s biggest tactical flaw is; beyond that, it just doesn’t have the talent of the tier Real Madrid, Barcelona, and Liverpool are in.
The squad is aging, and it’s fair to wonder whether they still have the same ceiling they showed in recent years. Inter is the oldest team in Europe’s top five leagues.
5. Paris Saint-Germain is the team no one should want to play.
Whichever team drew PSG was in for an immediate nightmare. (Keep Liverpool in your prayers.) Luis Enrique’s team is once again putting up substantial expected goals numbers in Ligue 1, but that’s normal. They also won 10-0 on aggregate against Brest in the playoff round. But winning against other French teams doesn’t tell us much about how PSG can compete with top European teams. PSG struggled at Bayern and Arsenal earlier this year, losing 1-0 and 2-0, respectively, while not producing many chances, but it has also become a much better team since then.
No team should want to face PSG because of how frighteningly talented its attackers are. You could make a case that Ousmane Dembélé has been the second-best player in Europe this season, with 21 goals in his 17 appearances since the start of December. He’s played as a two-footed winger for most of his career, but Enrique’s decision to play him centrally as a striker has coincided with one of the best runs of form of Dembélé’s entire career. Combine Dembélé’s central production with a breakout season from left winger Bradley Barcola—plus the shrewd loan move for Napoli winger Khvicha Kvaratskhelia—and Liverpool’s back line should be concerned about defending them.
In the past, the primary criticism of PSG was its weak midfield out-of-possession ability, but the addition of João Neves to the defensive midfield has improved its ball-winning ability.
The only way for PSG to prove it can beat an elite team is to actually do it, and it’ll have a real chance against Liverpool.
4. Arsenal is that what-if team.
Arsenal has perhaps the widest range of potential outcomes among the top title contenders, mostly due to injuries. The Gunners are known for being the best defensive team in the field. They’re very comfortable defending without the ball and will be difficult for even the world’s best attacking teams to break down.
The current group of attackers Arsenal has for its matchup with PSV is minimal, as it’ll be without preferred strikers Kai Havertz and Gabriel Jesus. Havertz is out for the season, and while the team had hoped for Gabriel Martinelli or Bukayo Saka to return for these matchups, Mikel Arteta has said neither will be back in time. That means heavy reliance on Arsenal set pieces, Martin Odegaard, and a front group that includes Raheem Sterling, Leandro Trossard, and youngster Ethan Nwaneri. If Arsenal’s defense can grind its way past PSV and Martinelli and Saka return for the quarterfinal, I’ll be confident that Arsenal is one of the four best teams in this field.
That’s a big if, but what if the time is right for a cup run?
3. Real Madrid is the favorite with the hardest path.
If Real Madrid wants to win the Champions League again, Carlo Ancelotti’s team will need to overcome a run of juggernauts.
Much like the 2021-22 season, when Real Madrid beat PSG, Chelsea, Manchester City, and Liverpool to lift the trophy, the current most likely path will arguably include four of the top six teams in the world.
Here’s a look at Real Madrid’s potential path:
- R16: Atlético Madrid
- QF: Arsenal
- SF: Liverpool
- Final: Barcelona/Bayern/Inter/Leverkusen
Real Madrid’s performances against other top teams don’t inspire optimism about its chances of repeating. Barcelona has outscored the team 9-2 in two meetings, and Liverpool beat them 2-0 at Anfield. Real has played Atlético twice and drawn both.
Ancelotti is a master tinkerer as a tactician and may have found the winning formula in Real Madrid’s two-leg demolition of Manchester City in the playoff round. In making adjustments to better balance the team, Ancelotti has shifted Jude Bellingham to a more defensive midfield role, utilized Rodrygo as a more defensive winger, and formed a partnership between Kylian Mbappé and Vini Jr. in a 4-4-2 formation. Bellingham is suspended for the first leg, and the defense still has real cracks, but unlike how Real Madrid looked in the first half of the season, there are no glaring holes in this team.
2. Liverpool is the favorite with the best player.
During the 2023-24 season, Mo Salah was very productive, finishing fourth in the Premier League with 28 combined goals and assists (18 goals and 10 assists). Now, in a contract year with an uncertain future, Salah has morphed into Ballon d’Or Salah. He’s not only having a season akin to the best player in the world, but he’s also on track to have the best season in the history of the Premier League.
The current single-season goal contributions record is 47, held by Andy Cole and Alan Shearer. Salah sits at 42 with 10 matches remaining.
Liverpool’s case to be the Champions League favorite is straightforward. It has the best player in the world at the moment and is likely to win the Premier League comfortably. It played seven Champions League matches before resting starters in the final match against PSV. It won all seven, defeating Leverkusen (the German champions) and Real Madrid (the Spanish champions and defending Champions League winners).
Despite being the top overall seed during the league stage, Liverpool drew a tough first-round match against PSG. The Reds will face an easier quarterfinal against Aston Villa or Club Brugge if they advance, but there’s a lot of pressure on Salah to maintain his historic year. If Salah performs just great instead of historically great, Liverpool could fall back to the pack, and there could be a debate on who the best team in the field is.
1. Barcelona is the favorite with the easiest path.
Club Brugge’s upset of Atalanta ensured that the team that avoided PSG in the round of 16 would receive a favorable draw on its road to the semifinals. Barcelona avoided PSG, and Real Madrid ended up on the other side of the bracket, creating a dream scenario for Barcelona to potentially reach the final.
Barcelona’s attack is a fully functioning supernova. Defense is, at times, optional. As a result, they are vulnerable to a potential upset, but they arguably have the highest ceiling in the world due to their attacking quality. Pedri’s combination of generational passing range and vision—plus two world-class wide forwards in Raphinha and Lamine Yamal—makes Barcelona the best ball-progression engine in the world. Robert Lewandowski has his limits out of possession, but his shot numbers have rebounded after a down season last year. He leads Europe in xG per 90 minutes.
Hansi Flick plays a comically high defensive line that is prone to allowing big chances on the break. There are also questions about the midfield’s defensive abilities. Barcelona has been a bit of a defensive mess in Europe for multiple years now, but it is one of the three favorites, and it’s been blessed with the easiest path.
They have an excellent combination of budding young talent and proven veteran superstars, and I fully expect them to be in the semifinals at a minimum.
