The NBA regular season is a six-month marathon. Between October and April, narratives emerge and fade as teams go on streaks, players get injured, and front offices reconfigure their rosters. Speaking of reconfigured rosters, this year’s trade deadline was one of the most significant in NBA history. Luka Doncic is now a Laker. Jimmy Butler is a Warrior. It’s not an exaggeration to say that the frenzy of activity completely shook up what we thought we knew about this year’s playoff picture. A month after the deadline, and a month before the playoffs, it’s a great time to check in on the Efficiency Landscape, which plots every team’s performance on both ends of the court. Which clubs around the association are rising, and which are fading?
1. The New-Look Dubs Are Rolling
No team in the NBA has improved more since the trade deadline than the Golden State Warriors. Before February 6, the Warriors were mid AF: under .500, with a negative net rating. They looked like a play-in team. On many nights, they seemed drowsy on both ends of the floor. But then they traded for Jimmy Butler, and suddenly these dudes have looked fully caffeinated. Since the deadline, they are 11-2 and own the second-best net rating in the Western Conference.
Butler has completely changed the vibes in the Bay. His production (18 points per game) has been nice, but it’s his ability to seamlessly flow within Steve Kerr’s motion offense that has propelled the Warriors to new heights. He’s a fantastic off-ball player and an underrated passer who has added a fresh wrinkle that augments the Dubs’ entire system.
If there’s one stat that sums up the offensive awakening in the Bay, it’s this: Not only is their ridiculous 73.9 assist percentage the best in the league since the deadline, but also, no NBA team has touched that mark over a full season in the past 25 years. It’s proof that this offense is COOKING, and no team is creating more looks for one another than the Dubs.
Butler’s arrival has also rejuvenated Stephen Curry. Since the deadline, the greatest shooter ever has been putting up 50/40/90 numbers; his scoring average jumped from 23 points per game before the All-Star break to 30 after. A motivated Butler and a refreshed Curry combine to create one of the most terrifying offensive duos heading into the playoffs, a yin and yang of free-throw-generating physicality and long-range shooting, bound together by supreme hoops IQs. Meanwhile, Draymond Green remains the best on-court defensive coordinator in pro hoops. When the Warriors have won, they were always elite on both ends. Well, Golden State is back on defense, too—it’s had the second-best defense in the association since the deadline. The only one better has been in Green’s home state of Michigan …
2. The D in Detroit
In the constellation of NBA logos in the Efficiency Landscape plot, no single star shines brighter than Detroit’s. The Pistons’ recent surge into the northeast quadrant is both inspiring and impressive. The question now: Is it sustainable?
Since the deadline, Detroit is 11-3 and owns the best defense in the NBA. Acquiring Dennis Schroeder has helped, but this story is less about the new guy and more about a young team slowly developing an identity and learning how to win games. This is the best stretch of Detroit basketball in almost a decade, and its winning formula has everything to do with Cade Cunningham, great shooting, and ferocious defense.
Cunningham is the Pistons’ main driver, a poised playmaker who creates buckets for himself and others. No player on the team has benefited more from Cunningham’s passing than Malik Beasley, who has taken nearly 100 more catch-and-shoot 3s than any other player in the NBA this season. Beasley has attempted 467 such shots this season (154 of them off Cunningham’s passes), and he’s made more than 43 percent of them. That combo of volume and efficiency from downtown is remarkable, and the spacing he provides has, in turn, afforded Cunningham more room to operate.
On the other end, the team’s elite defense is epitomized by a boiling menace called Beef Stew. Isaiah Stewart has now had viral confrontations with both LeBron James and Stephen Curry, and his brand of shit-talking physicality not only captures the fearlessness of this up-and-coming squad but also evokes the Bad Boy heritage of the proud Pistons franchise.
These dudes will not be a typical 5- or 6-seed; they will be a problem for some unlucky playoff opponent, which brings us to New York City.
3. The Knicks Are Hitting a Wall
A few weeks ago, the Knicks were soaring, and superfan Timothée Chalamet was in the running to win Best Actor for his turn as Bob Dylan. But “Things Have Changed.” Chalamet lost, and the Knicks’ title pursuit is now also facing a Brutalist reality. No team in the league (non–North Texas division) has had such a dramatic downward turn since the deadline …
The Times They Are A-Changin'
We’ve gone from “Positively 4th Street” to “Desolation Row.” It’s never a good sign when your closest neighbors on the Efficiency Landscape are the Wizards, Bulls, and decimated Mavs.
On offense, the Knicks’ shooting numbers have fallen off a cliff, especially inside the arc. Before the deadline, the Knicks ranked third in 2-point efficiency, but they’ve been 21st since, in large part because Karl-Anthony Towns has decreased in both activity and efficiency close to the basket.
Fatigue is also a real concern for this team, something we see reflected in its net rating by quarter this season:
- First quarter: -0.1
- Second quarter: +11.1
- Third quarter: +7.6
- Fourth quarter: -3.5
It’s fair to ask whether the team that includes three of the league’s top six leaders in minutes per game is running out of gas as we play out the final frame of the season. To make matters even worse, Jalen Brunson, who shoulders New York’s heaviest offensive burden by far, is sidelined indefinitely with an ankle injury. Between the loss of Brunson, the downward trend of the offense, and where we are on the calendar, the Knicks are running out of time to get it right. It’s not dark yet, but it’s getting there. How does it feel? Not great, Bob.
4. The Cleveland Cavaliers Are Juggernauts in Plain Sight
February 4. That was the last time Kenny Atkinson and the Cavs tasted defeat. Simply put, Cleveland is the best basketball team on planet earth right now. The Cavs have won 13 straight, and since the deadline, they’ve led the league in both net rating and offensive efficiency. Atkinson’s cut-happy offense has been the most unstoppable scoring apparatus in the league all year long, and it only got better after the deadline.
While Luka Doncic and Jimmy Butler got all the headlines, the Cavs’ trade for De’Andre Hunter has been arguably the East’s most impactful deadline upgrade. This dude has made 50 percent of his 3s since landing in The Land, and the Cavs have yet to taste defeat in the Hunter era. When he’s on the floor, they are blowing the doors off the other guys, outscoring opponents by 19 points per 100.
Cleveland’s come-from-behind win in Boston 10 days ago is probably the most significant win in the whole league since the deadline. It showcased exactly what Hunter brings to his new team: DEPTH. That night, Cleveland’s bench outscored Boston’s reserves 33-6. Last season, Boston wasn’t just the best team in the East; it was the deepest, too. That honor now belongs to Cleveland.
5. The Oklahoma City Thunder’s Path Is Harder
The Thunder have been Western Conference favorites all year, but suddenly, their path to the NBA Finals is lined with potential landmines. They could face matchups against the greatest player in the world in Nikola Jokic, a new-look Lakers squad with two of the best offensive players we’ve ever seen, and and a reworked Warriors group whose championship pedigree includes six Western Conference crowns in the past 10 years.
The young players in OKC remain sturdy favorites, which they reaffirmed on Sunday with a resounding win against the Nuggets. But the Dubs and Lakers are compelling new characters in the Western landscape. Despite Saturday’s loss in Boston and LeBron’s groin injury, the Lakers are legitimately dangerous. They woke up today as the 2-seed, but it might be hard to stay there. James’s injury is a concern as L.A. battles Denver for that spot. It also just so happens that the Lakers have two huge games against the Nuggets in the next 10 days.
Assuming that LeBron returns within a couple of weeks, the more significant matchup between L.A. and Denver should occur in a potential second-round playoff series that would be a basketball lover’s dream. We’re still sifting through the full ramifications of the 2025 trade deadline, but there is no question that it made the league a lot more interesting.
