For the victors of the NCAA tournament, the spoils are clear: some hardware and a lifetime of memories (not to mention a lifetime of literally dining out on those memories). But for the players eyeing a jump to the pros, the Big Dance is also one final interview. We already have months of college tape on the top prospects at this point (and years of intel at the prep level, too), but the spotlight in March hits different: A known future draftee might demonstrate some capability in an area of concern, or an unknown might assert themselves on the scene for the first time. In other words, there’s still a lot to gain. Here are some of the players—separated into three groups—whose draft stock has the most to gain in their last college games.
Top Prospects
A lot can go wrong in a college season, at times for reasons within a player’s control … and at times beyond it. These are a few projected first-rounders who could benefit from ending their seasons with a bang—whether they’re a freshman whose acclimation to certain aspects of the (much older than normal) college game has led to messy results, or whether they’re a newcomer to the draft discussion who could use a nice red velvet bow on their résumé.
Tre Johnson, Texas
Watching Texas in person at the SEC tournament didn’t exactly redefine my thoughts on Tre’s game, but it did open my eyes to his surroundings. I still think he’s in great position to be a career scorer in the NBA, regardless of whether his development fully hits his ceiling—he’s 6-foot-6, with a variety of ways to get to his dribble pull-up jumper. He had moments when he’d slingshot off a pindown and find a diving teammate at the rim for an assist. (Usually he was eagerly looking for his shot first, but we’ll take the positives for now and press forward.) But seeing him play off Longhorn guards Jordan Pope and especially Tramon Mark—neither guy likely to be mistaken for Steve Nash when it comes to style of play—made me wonder whether Tre’s periodic tunnel vision was caused by feeling like he was out of an offensive flow and therefore pushing too hard to make something happen once he finally got a touch.
I paid close attention to his body language during that weekend, and very often he seemed frustrated by the way Texas’s offense was being run, either clapping for the ball when he felt like he had a good matchup or just strolling off to the corner when he saw that the play was headed in another direction. Either way, if he wasn’t scoring, his effort and attentiveness were wildly uneven.
Still, let’s not shed too many tears for Tre: His usage was sky high over the Longhorns’ three games in Nashville, and he took by far the most shots on the team. I just wonder how many of those sequences where he burned a lot of calories off the dribble were just to take a more difficult shot would’ve even happened had he been on the receiving end of easy offense, with creators who could make that happen. Of Tre’s SEC-leading 514 field goal attempts this season, 318 of those were jump shots and 188 were off the dribble. That’s an insane stat. Texas is in the play-in round, but it’ll have the opportunity to play three high majors in a row that it’s capable of beating. I want to see Tre really lean into the idea of affecting the game in other ways if his offensive situation doesn’t change. It could be the difference between him going 2-5 or 6-10 in the draft.
Liam McNeeley, UConn
McNeeley came into this season as a “pencil him in” prospect, someone we all but knew would be in the mix for a spot in the draft lottery, largely because of his pedigree: He was immensely successful at prep powerhouse Montverde Academy next to a slew of other projected first-round picks. While he’s not in danger of falling off the map, he has gradually slid down my board this season. McNeeley has never blown anybody’s hair back with explosiveness, but even still, his adjustment to the athleticism against high-major competition has been much bumpier than expected. He avoids making mistakes or losing sight of his responsibility, but his margin for error on defense is small because he’s rarely making an impact with his hands. On offense, he’s often bothered by length in the restricted area because of his limited creativity as a finisher, so he’ll jump farther from the basket off one foot to avoid a defender, which is likely why his inside-the-arc numbers have been so bad. A 44.1 2-point percentage is … alarming. I have a hard time believing he’s as bad a shooter from 3 as the numbers would indicate, although they’ve been consistently meh (33.9 percent in non-conference, 35.4 percent in conference play). McNeeley is a smart player, and I have faith that he’ll figure something out—it’s just going to take some work.
Boogie Fland, Arkansas
It looks like we’ll have another draft class with a bundle of scoring-minded undersized guards. North Carolina’s Ian Jackson, Auburn’s Tahaad Pettiford, Florida’s Walter Clayton Jr., and Alabama’s Mark Sears fit this bill should they all declare, as expected. But Fland is the one with a real opportunity in the tournament; he can reassert his case in the draft conversation by bookending his season with another big performance against Kansas in the first round.
Fland likes to score, and as creative as he can be in doing so, he can also be a willing and versatile playmaker. Fland has been out since January 18 with a hand injury and he still finished only 14 assists behind D.J. Wagner for team leader on the season. His size and skinny build will always make his life in the NBA a challenge, both as a paint scorer and as a defender, but if he shows out against Kansas and/or St. John’s, you could see a front office becoming enamored of his live-dribble passing and scoring and then talking themselves into taking a chance.
Danny Wolf, Michigan
Wolf is one of those players who, if the social media clips are edited just right, can look like a future All-Star. His (at times) razor-sharp footwork when he’s evading defenders on the edges of the paint, angular scoops, and “did I just see what I think I saw” playmaking send the mind racing. He’s one of the chief oddities in this class, assuming he declares: a 7-footer who plays mostly facing the basket and acts like a facilitator. In fact, Michigan is probably the only team in the country that consistently ran pick-and-roll with two 7-footers (the other being Vlad Goldin, who is more of a roller and a finisher).
The looming question mark is this: Can the fun be functional? The clips that don’t make it into those sizzle reels are the plays where Danny’s proclivity for coughing up the ball really puts a dent in his efficiency across the board—his turnover percentage in non-conference play was a whopping 29.9 percent, and it improved to only a semi-whopping 19.6 once the Wolverines entered conference play. He’s also turbulent from 3 and could stand to play with more force; despite his size, he has only six dunks on the season. I’d be surprised if Wolf plays this central of a role in whatever situation he finds himself in at the next level, but a dynamic performance (or more) could help convince a team that his productivity in a creative role is too hard to ignore.
Madness of March
Geriatric Hoopers
The most alluring prospects are the ones young enough to have a wide-open developmental road in front of them—but not every prospect is on the same path. The growth plate on an older player’s game might be limited, leaving them with a much smaller chance of becoming a superstar. However, that doesn’t mean these potential second-rounders can’t find a niche in a winning environment.
Johni Broome, Auburn
For all the praise that Auburn’s fifth-year phenom has gotten, Broome still tends to get typecast as a dominant post player putting up gaudy counting stats against overmatched competition. There’s a lingering worry about who he might be in the NBA game, largely driven by whether or not he shoots the ball.
Broome lives to pick on jumpy bigs who lack the discipline to stay down. He’s methodical and crafty. He really loves to set up shop on the right block and take a beat to see how the help defenders are creeping into position, and for right-handed shooters (who prefer the left side of the floor) that’s a fun life beyond the arc. Longer, more positionally savvy defenders who have the discipline to stay down have given Broome issues this season. This has frequently led him to take tougher, off-balance shots and neutralized his passing game.
Still, I’m expecting Johni’s malleability to be a real plus for his draft stock. I’ve been slow to jump on the Broome Bus over the past couple of years—in fact, I have a text thread with some friends who love to mock me anytime he plays well. He’s still far from my favorite; however, he has a well-rounded-enough skill set to provide some late-rotation scoring punch, with a ceiling somewhere in the realm of a Bobby Portis or Trey Lyles type.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton
I swear to God, you could tell me that Kalkbrenner caught lobs from Doug McDermott as a freshman and I would pause for a moment to think about it. His five-volume college career has been as long as it’s been productive. Needless to say, we have a ton of data on Kalkbrenner at this point. Throughout his development at Creighton, the counters in his game have grown, but the sheer force of his will on the interior has been the unwavering focus. Year after year, he’s been one of the most prolific rollers in the pick-and-roll, and he steamrolls in the post. A key trackable progression, however, has been how Creighton has steadily expanded his opportunities to space the floor. Kalkbrenner’s shot has never looked broken (although it does seem to have slowed down over the years?), and he’s judicious about taking them after he’s run through all of his progressions, as if he’s some game-manager quarterback. Kalkbrenner isn’t going to be an Olympic sprinter, but he’s a more balanced and nimble athlete when attacking bigs who (for some reason) jump at his potential 3-ball than you might think.
If Kalkbrenner managed to string together a run where he imposed his will on a smaller Louisville team, held up as a rim protector against Auburn’s three-ring offensive circus and forced them to foul him (the Tigers foul a lot), and then successfully dueled with Michigan’s duo of bigs, it would be a nice cherry on a successful college career. Kalkbrenner will be up against it at the next level, but his realized skill set and on-court intelligence will earn him a chance somewhere.
Complete Unknowns
Few things in this sports life make me happier than when a big-time talent has been lurking in the margins of the mainstream discussion of college hoops and then bursts on the scene and screams “GET TO KNOW ME” in the face of a higher-seeded team. Players in this group range from potential late first-rounders to possible two-ways to guys who will be working as grad assistants in the near future.
Bennett Stirtz, Drake
Drake had been good under Darian DeVries, the new Indiana head coach who left Des Moines just last year for West Virginia. Yet somehow, the Bulldogs were even better this season under Ben McCollum, finishing 30-3 overall and 17-3 in the Missouri Valley Conference, and capping it all off with an MVC tournament win (their third in a row). McCollum brought four starters with him from Northwest Missouri State, a team that had a bunch of success in Division II last season, but none have popped off the screen quite like Stirtz. The divisional jump didn’t seem to faze the 6-4 guard whatsoever—he averaged nearly 20 points and 5.7 assists per game, and hit a 60.5 true shooting percentage mark. He doesn’t shy from real competition, either. He laid a whooping on three different high majors in non-conference play (Vanderbilt, Miami, and Kansas State), all of which were wins.
Among players who eclipsed the 250 possession mark in pick-and-rolls this season, Stirtz was second in the country in both 3-point percentage (40.9) and points per possession (.996). He nickel-and-dimes his defenders for the space he wants with micro changes of direction that put opponents in purgatory between standing and hurried shuffling. He moves in seemingly aimless, meandering paths, but the bumps and the hesitations have a way of culminating in his getting what he wants—whether it be a fading jumper, a runner off the glass, a side-step 3, or a pocket pass to a big. It’s chaotic to watch at times, but it has to be maddening to defend.
Ryan Conwell, Xavier
This is a delayed introduction. Once an unsung copilot for the Robbie Avila experience at Indiana State, Conwell is finally getting the spotlight he’s deserved. He’s now played in three different conferences in each of his three college seasons, yet his low center of gravity and smooth movement have yet to fail to translate.
His shooting repertoire, however, is a bit more complicated. His release point isn’t the highest—he dips it most of the time and the ball stops right in front of his face—yet he gets it off his hand in a hurry without seeming like he’s hurried, and he rarely seems uncomfortable. You may recall coaches in camp clinics from when you were a kid who taught everyone to “snap” passes—to rapidly flick the wrist so that the movement isn’t drawn out. Conwell is snappy, in every which way. There’s not much perceivable self-doubt in the way that Conwell plays, and his decisiveness seems to be driven by a brazen confidence. Those qualities are typically most apparent beyond the arc. An amazing 52.5 percent of his field goal attempts this season have come from above the break specifically, which is 23 percentage points higher than the national average, and he nailed nearly 40 percent of those. He’s the exact type of player who can go on a heater and make a defense feel helpless. In fact, it would not surprise me at all if Xavier beats Texas in the play-in.
Hayden Gray, UC San Diego
I don’t expect Gray to be on anyone’s draft radar, but this 6-foot-4 senior deserves to be mentioned, because he is one of the true analytic anomalies in all of college basketball. He’s a solid passer within the flow of what UCSD does and a knockdown catch-and-shoot guy from 3—all normal, helpful skills. But what’s odd about him is that, despite not being a noteworthy athlete in any noticeable way, he has one of the highest steal percentages (6 PERCENT!) that I’ve ever seen. This guy sniffs out deflections like a truffle pig.
Working smarter often beats working harder, and guys who are great at stealing the ball tend to live by that motto, putting themselves in the right places by memorizing a few common movements within a game. You see it most frequently during dribble handoffs, because that small opening between players is at chest level and all someone has to do is position themselves to swipe up at the ball and break it loose. Gray does a lot of that, but he also seems acutely aware of where the pressure-release valves are whenever an action is taking place. He knows that a pass is likely going to the popping big and doesn’t make his move until it’s thrown. He knows that spinning ball handlers might as well be chum for his stat line.
UC San Diego played 32 regular-season games, and Gray logged four steals or more in half of them, including three games where he snagged six or more. I’m hoping that Michigan’s lack of familiarity with his weird style of play will lead to some exciting moments. That’s what the tournament is for, after all.