As the regular season winds down, here’s a run through the notebook I use every night when watching NBA games on League Pass. To keep things interesting, I’ll go from the meatiest topics to the most niche. Some are recent, and others have spent months somewhere in the back of my mind. All, to me, are at the very least worth mentioning, if not interrogating, before the playoffs begin. So without further ado, here are nine increasingly obscure observations for the stretch run.
1. The Subtle Adjustment That (Maybe) Gave LeBron James a Boost
Everything about LeBron’s 22nd NBA season makes no sense. His production, speed, bounce, energy, explosiveness, and ability to absorb and finish through contact at the basket are mind-boggling for someone who’s 40 years old. It’s all made possible by countless hours of preparation and probably the most disciplined lifestyle in the league. Yet I feel like what James has done this year is somehow still not talked about enough, overshadowed by one spectacle after another: the most shockingly stupid trade in NBA history, a public tiff with television personality Stephen A. Smith, the various criticisms and hoopla surrounding his own son’s rookie season, etc.
So many different factors go into LeBron’s ongoing defiance of physiological guidelines; the most subtle one could also be the most interesting. According to BBall Index, he ranks in the 100th percentile this year in “minutes consistency”—unsurprising when you consider how critical his night-to-night stability must be. What’s fascinating here—beyond him somehow ranking 27th in minutes per game—is a subtle shift made to JJ Redick’s rotation.
Before LeBron strained his groin in a prime-time loss against the Celtics a couple of weeks ago, I took a look at how he was being deployed every night and noticed a small but intentional difference in when he’s on the court this season compared to the past few years.
From 2022 to 2024, LeBron’s substitution pattern early in games was the same: He’d leave the game late in the first quarter and then start the second quarter. This season, he’s exiting earlier in the first quarter, taking a quick breather, then reentering later in the same period. James is still on the court when the second quarter begins, but the point is that L.A. has been smart about shortening LeBron’s stints without dramatically decreasing his overall minutes. (For the most part, the same pattern is reflected in the second half.)
It’s something we saw during L.A.’s playoff run a couple of years ago, too, in an effort to keep its most important player as fresh as possible. Obviously, the tweak isn’t foolproof. But before his groin injury, James had been incredibly durable and productive for one of the best teams in the Western Conference. This slight modification to his in-game rest might have helped.
2. Will the Denver Nuggets Be Fine?
A quick word on the increasingly divisive question above: Health abiding, my answer is—and will pretty much always be so long as Nikola Jokic is clearly the world’s best player—yes. Sure, the Nuggets’ defensive rating is down to 21st in the league, and they’re 16-18 against teams that are .500 and above. (Two years ago they were 29-18 in those games, and last season they finished 29-23.)
In the playoffs, though, depth and rotation-related concerns will be less meaningful for opponents that have to see more of Jokic and Jamal Murray and less of Zeke Nnaji and Julian Strawther. Aaron Gordon will be Denver’s starting power forward and backup center, and Russell Westbrook will (likely) be tethered to the Joker.
Denver employs three of the six most efficient five-man units that have logged at least 150 minutes this season. If you’re looking for a larger sample size, the top three two-man combinations in offensive rating that have played at least 1,000 minutes this season all have Jokic in them. They may not win it all or even reach the NBA Finals in what’s increasingly becoming a matchup-dependent playoff picture—the Timberwolves have been their kryptonite this season—but the Nuggets are still as formidable as they come, with championship habits, talent, and chemistry.
3. The Thunder’s Torturous 3-Point Defense
In some cases, there’s more luck than strategy involved when guarding the 3-point line. In Oklahoma City, it’s increasingly difficult to parse what means what.
The 2024-25 Thunder boast one of the best defenses ever. They force the most turnovers and protect the rim better than every other team. They also allow the highest 3-point rate in the league and rank first in opposing 3-point percentage on wide-open attempts. In other words, OKC rarely gets punished like most other teams that yield those types of numbers. Instead of getting pummeled from deep, the Thunder allow the lowest 3-point percentage in the league.
There’s no statistical way to prove this, but I’d be willing to bet that a good chunk of that number can be credited to OKC’s intense style of play—the aggression, physicality, and constant second-guessing they induce on a moment-to-moment basis. After watching the Boston Celtics clang away from downtown in the second half of both of their matchups against the Thunder, I started to wonder whether their struggles as the games went on were more than just a coincidence. (The Celtics shot just 15.7 percent from deep in the second half vs. OKC, by far their worst performance this season.)
Are the Thunder in the other teams’ heads at this point? Does a general exhaustion settle in? Leaguewide, only two teams allow a higher defensive 3-point rate in the fourth quarter. At the same time, opponents are actually converting only 31.7 percent of them, which is third best in the league.
Will these numbers magically go the other way in the playoffs? Anything is possible, but I wouldn’t count on it. OKC’s defense plays like a beehive that just got kicked, and the late-game dip seen by offenses behind the arc might just be an unavoidable reverb from getting stung.
4. The Cavaliers’ Crunch-Time Offense Is … Historic?
Even amid some recent struggles on a West Coast road trip that might prevent them from having home court in the NBA Finals, should they make it, the Cavaliers’ crunch-time attack deserves a standing ovation: In high and very high leverage possessions, it’s the best the NBA has seen in at least 25 seasons.
On one hand, this isn’t super surprising. The 57-14 Cavaliers have one of the best offenses in league history and can beat you in so many different ways with a fast, self-assured, well-executed, charitable brand of basketball. On the other hand, teams don’t typically get significantly better during portions of the game that stage adverse conditions for offensive execution.
It’s almost like Cleveland’s egalitarian approach has helped keep its best players fresh for moments that really matter!
5. Derrick White’s Happy Place
During a win against the Los Angeles Lakers earlier this month, there was a stretch early in the second half when Boston repeatedly ran the same action: a side pick-and-roll on the left wing with Derrick White and Al Horford. The Celtics got pretty much whatever they wanted flowing out of that initial trigger, which was designed to force a switch and get Horford on Austin Reaves in the paint, until JJ Redick was forced to call a timeout:
This wasn’t an accident. Great things happen for the Celtics whenever White runs a pick-and-roll on the left side of the floor. Out of 51 players who’ve done it at least 75 times, only two players have been more efficient. None of this is a surprise. Getting to his right hand, with a ton of room to operate, he can do damage in myriad ways, from drilling a pull-up 3 to knocking down a floater to tossing the perfect lob.
He knows how to flex his own strengths as a scorer and passer while also leveraging the various mismatches his teammates tend to create on any given possession. He’s patient in a crowd, never runs out of options, and almost always finds the crack in whatever coverage defenses resort to.
Even with Tatum and Jaylen Brown on the floor, when times get tough, the Celtics often look like their best self when the ball is in White’s hands in an area of the court where all the qualities that make him great are in full effect.
6. The Houston Rockets’ New Cheat Code
After Houston lost three straight games by a combined 32 points a few weeks ago, Ime Udoka decided to introduce a new wrinkle into his rotation. Instead of keeping Alperen Sengun on the bench at the end of the first quarter and the start of the second quarter (which happened more often than not), he’s decided to bring Sengun back in before the first quarter ends to play with Steven Adams, forming a jumbo-sized double-big unit that gives Houston a massive, fresh look.
On paper, pairing two non-stretch bigs together makes for an awkward and cramped frontcourt, particularly next to other wings and guards in Houston’s rotation who can’t or don’t shoot the ball very well. Instead, so far, in a small sample size, they’ve been dominant, with spacing issues suppressed by offensive rebounds, opportunistic big-to-big passing, overwhelming size, and a brand-new zone defense.
Strip away any 3-point luck from the 81 minutes these two have teamed up for and Houston’s defensive rating is still 94.3. Its offensive rebound rate, meanwhile, is 41.8—a number that’s unsustainable but still made me feel like I’d bruised a rib after looking at it. The Rockets won’t be able to play Sengun and Adams together for lengthy stretches in the postseason, but it can be the right hook their opponent has no answer for that changes the texture of a playoff series. It’s also no coincidence that the Rockets’ nine-game win streak started when Udoka committed to playing them at the same time.
7. An Ode to Trey Murphy III
Let’s begin with one of my all-time favorite riddles: If someone has a breakout season in New Orleans and nobody watches, did it really happen? Murphy is out for the season after suffering a freak shoulder injury in last week’s loss against the Pistons, but before Murphy went down, I had plans to write a column about a bunch of fun players on lottery-bound teams nobody was really paying attention to. I wanted to call them the “All–Silver Linings team,” and Murphy was their captain.
This season, New Orleans Pelicans color commentator Antonio Daniels has referred to Murphy as a four-level scorer. The label is perfect. There’s effortless range mixed with a blossoming in-between game and bold forays into the paint. Murphy entered the league with a one-dimensional skill set, so this development is the biggest (only?) optimistic takeaway New Orleans should have from this season. Murphy is one of seven players to score at least 40 points in at least two straight games this season (and one of 36 players to do it in the past 10 years).
Before he got hurt, Murphy’s 2-point attempts per 100 possessions were more than double last year’s output, and while his 3-point rate remained above 50, it also dropped down a whopping 19.5 percentage points from 2023-24 (the only player who has seen a larger drop this year is Pistons center Isaiah Stewart).
8. Can Deni Avdija Ever Make an All-Star Team?
OK, this one might be extremely unlikely. But as the best player (at 24 years old!) on a feisty Portland Trail Blazers squad that is playing up to its competition, is the second-youngest team in the league, and still has an outside chance to make the play-in, Avdija has been on a meaningful tear recently.
Since the All-Star break, he’s averaging 21.1 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 4.9 assists per game—second, first, and first, respectively, on his team. His true shooting is an excellent 65.6 percent. Avdija’s overall shooting numbers aren’t any better than last year’s, but since he never before played a weighty role in a meaningful environment that held actual stakes this late in the year, his impact shouldn’t be ignored. Yes, around now is the time when teams tend to roll over and play dead. It’s ripe for statistical inflation. But some of Avdija’s finest work has come against real competition.
He had a 30-point triple-double against the Cavaliers; dropped 28 on 14 shots against the Lakers; finished with 34 points, 16 rebounds, and six assists in a close loss against the Warriors; went 31-16-8 in a recent win over the Grizzlies; and went 36-8-7 with three steals on 12-for-16 shooting in a win against the Nuggets.
There are only a handful of forwards Avdija’s size who make getting where they want to go look easier than he does. According to Sportradar, 73.7 percent of Deni’s drives are to the right, which ranks first among 72 players who’ve logged at least 200 right-handed drives this season. Considering his points per chance on these plays also rank in the 72nd percentile, this is pretty impressive!
He’s explosive, aggressive, decisive, and strong, and—through his penchant to extend the ball out in an open dare for nearby defenders to swipe down and try to steal it (à la James Harden or DeMar DeRozan)—he absolutely loves contact. Avdija draws a shooting foul about one out of every five shots he takes, which puts him in the 96th percentile at his position.
He has no brakes but can downshift around the basket, operating with enough patience running pick-and-rolls to put his man in jail, survey the floor, and (despite his high turnover rate) make a decent decision from there.
To answer my own question above, Avdija is still not on an All-Star trajectory. But anyone who averages a highly efficient 20 points, 10 rebounds, and five assists while holding his own on the defensive end deserves attention. The Blazers’ decision to trade for him after last year’s draft was a wise one.
9. Kris Dunn Belongs on an All-Defensive Team
Thanks to some unintended consequences from the league’s new player participation guidelines—as recently covered by The Athletic’s John Hollinger—Kris Dunn will not be eligible to make an All-Defensive team this year. This is criminal.
Dunn is first in defensive estimated plus-minus by a wide margin among all players who’ve appeared in at least 60 games and is third—behind Pascal Siakam and Victor Wembanyama—in on-off half-court differential (minimum 1,000 minutes). All of it checks out when you watch the pure chaos that’s unleashed whenever he’s near the ball or somebody tries to screen him off it.
He can chase off a pick. He can stay in front of his man. He can clog passing lanes and then recover back to contest a jumper. And above all else, he does everything to exhaustion while applying immense pressure. Dunn knows what the offense wants to do and then forces a plan B or C. People who don’t think perimeter defenders are as important as the bigs behind them lose me whenever I think about the impact this guy has had as arguably the most crucial part of L.A.’s great defense. The name of the game is to keep the other team from scoring. Dunn does that as well as anybody.
Even if he averages only 24 minutes per game, the NBA should let its voters decide how much that matters and not disqualify him altogether.
