The opening weekend of the NBA playoffs is always an intense, tone-setting petri dish of hyperbole. There’s no better time to think irrationally than after watching a bunch of Game 1s. With that in mind, here are six overreactions that should be read with the full understanding that each one is also 100 percent true.
1. This will be Giannis Antetokounmpo’s last playoff series in a Milwaukee Bucks jersey.
After a blowout Game 1 loss against Indiana that was not at all surprising, it’s clear that Milwaukee is not close to where it wants or expects to be. Let’s zoom out: This entire era of Bucks basketball has been defined by either a pleasant success story that featured the organization’s first championship since 1971 or, one Finals run aside, a series of mega-disappointing playoff runs that were cut short for one frustrating reason or another.
Either way, it’s over—something we already knew the day the Bucks turned the page on Khris Middleton with culture-disintegrating trades for Kyle Kuzma and Kevin Porter Jr. Even if Damian Lillard returns to action, he looks great, and the Bucks win this series, the team’s status as a championship contender has crumbled into dust. Giannis is phenomenal, but there’s just so little juice around him. There are only three teammates left from that 2021 title squad, and the Bucks have zero first-round picks in this year’s draft.
The Bucks could run it back sans Brook Lopez next year, play Giannis more at the 5, reinvent their style of play, and hope Lillard can stay healthy for a playoff run. But even if they have a lower payroll and some more flexibility heading into this summer, there are still so few ways for general manager Jon Horst to give the Bucks a balanced roster that can compete at the highest level on both ends.
Even though the New Orleans Pelicans have swap rights with Milwaukee in the 2026 draft, the time for a complete dismantling is this summer. Several teams that have interesting prospects and picks worth Milwaukee’s while will call about Giannis this summer—be it the Houston Rockets, Brooklyn Nets, Chicago Bulls (LOL, but seriously), San Antonio Spurs (gulp), or Orlando Magic. (It’s unclear how much value Lillard will have, but moving on from him is a given if Giannis is dealt.) We’ll have plenty of time to dive into these specifics after the season officially ends, but if Game 1 showed us anything, it’s that Milwaukee has officially reached a dead end.
2. Andrew Nembhard is the most underrated player in the NBA.
This isn’t that much of an overreaction, honestly. It’s just kind of a fact. Nembhard showed how instrumental he is to Indiana’s success in Game 1’s obliteration of Milwaukee. His 17 points, five assists, and four rebounds in just 29 minutes didn’t capture all of it. Nembhard is just so rock-solid, whether he’s knocking Lopez off his spot at the rim in transition (something the 6-foot-4 guard did multiple times!), drilling daggers from behind the arc, or, play in, play out, being someone who deserves to make an All-Defensive team this year (he cracked my fake third team).
3. The Denver Nuggets can’t win this series without Michael Porter Jr.
It’s too much to say that the Nuggets stole Game 1. They are battle-tested champions with more pride, talent, and collective big-game experience than 80 percent of the league. But they dodged multiple bullets against the Clippers. Russell Westbrook was on the court from halfway through the third quarter until overtime’s final buzzer—the longest stint (22 straight minutes) any player logged in that game. In total, that’s more than 34 minutes of Westbrook’s give-and-take chaos, which no team has ever been able to successfully harness.
Meanwhile, Michael Porter Jr., a starter whose outside shot, size, and athleticism have proved to be critical ingredients in Denver’s stew, sat on the bench for most of the fourth quarter and all of overtime, watching Westbrook get ignored by the rabid Clippers defense, which had an easy time steering the ball away from Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray.
A defense didn’t guard Westbrook, you say? The sky is blue. Denver’s backup point guard ranked in the 95th percentile this season on shots attempted with no defender within 10 feet, per Sportradar. Even though he drilled 43.5 percent of those 3s this season, the Clippers dared him to shoot Saturday. He did make a humongous 3 that put Denver up two with 24 seconds left in regulation, but the misses in Game 1were devastating because of how they played right into the Clippers’ hands:
It’s hard to consistently score when five defenders guard only four opponents—and the fifth one can’t take advantage. Westbrook didn’t always settle for jumpers when his man doubled Murray, occasionally cutting into a helpful adjustment that leveraged his playmaking ability. But any adjustments doesn’t solve a major spacing issue the Nuggets have to deal with so long as he’s on the court; the bucket he helped create in the clip below could have easily been a turnover:
To be clear, Porter was not great in Game 1. He scored three points and took just four shots in 26 minutes, and most of the time he looked disengaged, playing at a listless pace that conjured an anonymous regular-season romp. He didn’t box out, couldn’t get open, and looked apathetic off the ball—including in this sequence, when he didn’t drift to the corner on Murray’s drive, nearly causing a turnover.
It was still a little surprising not to see Porter on the court in the final play of regulation, when Westbrook’s antigravity upset the balance of Denver’s set. After all, MPJ averaged a highly efficient 18.2 points per game this season. Going forward, as they face an increasingly small margin for error, the Nuggets will need Porter to be way more involved on both ends. This is someone who, even in a relative shooting slump, is still a consistent double-digit scorer who can’t be ignored on the perimeter. At his best, he can rebound and not be completely steamrolled when forced to stay in front of James Harden or Kawhi Leonard. But a thin Nuggets roster will collapse into a damp ply of tissue paper if Porter continues to play like this.
4. Nico Harrison breathes a sigh of relief.
Maybe defense does win championships. In Game 1 of the Lakers-Timberwolves series—a matchup loaded with star power—Minnesota generated 136.1 points per 100 possessions—their fifth-most efficient performance of the entire season. They shot a ridiculous 50 percent from behind the arc, didn’t draw their first personal foul until there was 4:09 left in the second quarter, and did it all while their best player, Anthony Edwards, scored only 22 points on a dreadful 22 shots.
I can’t tell whether that is a good sign for the Timberwolves or if it’s an outlier result that the Lakers should feel somewhat good about. L.A. executed its defensive scheme well enough: Jaden McDaniels is a streaky shooter who probably isn’t going 11-for-13 again, Julius Randle went 4-for-6 from deep, the Lakers’ “small” lineups held Minnesota to 11-for-24 shooting in the restricted area, and Edwards was 1-for-7 at the rim. What I do know, though, is that Luka Doncic tried really hard on defense, and it didn’t matter.
The Timberwolves made him work throughout the game, either having his man set ball screens or taking advantage of the aggressive help he showed off the ball, forcing a snappy rotation that was never quite fast enough. McDaniels, Doncic’s primary assignment, erupted for 25 points with a 96.2 true shooting percentage. Some of that is by design: Instead of worrying about McDaniels, the Lakers were far more focused on finding ways to stifle Edwards and keep him out of the paint. Even when Doncic was in the right spot, though, it didn’t matter:
When Ant checked back into the game after leaving with a cramp, the first thing he did was get Doncic one-on-one. Leg pain be damned. For the game’s best, there is no greater comfort:
A few plays later, Luka switched onto Ant again and got mad when Jarred Vanderbilt shrunk off Randle to help him cut off the drive. Incredible stuff:
Some of this Luka criticism is tongue-in-cheek. Doncic also scored 37 points efficiently against a defense that was goading him to shoot. His one assist is more the product of Minnesota’s scheme (similar to what we saw from Boston in the Finals) and his own team’s flawed roster—i.e., Dereck Lively II, Daniel Gafford, and Mark Williams aren’t walking through that door.
His defense won’t look as bad if the Timberwolves struggle from behind the arc. But on nights when shots do fall, it’s hard not to think back to last year’s NBA Finals and how Boston went at Luka over and over again without the well ever going dry. None of this means that the Lakers can’t win the series or Doncic can’t win a title being the exact same dude he is at this exact moment in time. But after Game 1, for the first night in months, Nico could sleep in peace.
5. The hitch in Franz Wagner’s shot is an existential crisis.
This is … not ideal:
Wagner’s hitch didn’t debut in Game 1 of Orlando’s loss to Boston—it’s a couple of months old—but watching it muck up an offense that can’t afford to get any muddier in a competitive playoff game was alarming. I know (1) this is an overreaction column, (2) there’s plenty of time for Wagner to fix his outside shot, and (3) he has more to his game (he still managed 23 points in the loss). But as it currently stands, this is still a pretty big deal. If it persists, the Magic will have to look in the mirror and seriously consider who can—and should—be around Paolo Banchero.
Wagner is a uniquely gifted all-around player who was on track to make his first All-Star team before a torn oblique derailed his season. He has size, strength, speed, handle, touch, and toughness. He also made 29.5 percent of his 3s this year, after making 28.1 percent during the 2023-24 season.
If he can't space the floor and keeps facing defenders who duck under the pick when he comes off a ball screen, there’s an independent ceiling on who Wagner can be—and, at the absolute worst, a riptide for Orlando’s long-term trajectory. If accentuating Banchero is the goal, you wonder how far he can go with a sidekick whose only flaw is arguably a debilitating one that any high-usage wing can’t afford.
6. Memphis should bench Zach Edey.
We knew coming into this series that the Grizzlies were not going to advance. But after a brutal blowout loss in Game 1, it might already be time for Memphis’s interim head coach, Tuomas Iisalo, to adjust his rotation and move Zach Edey to the bench.
To be clear, no single player is to blame for Memphis losing its series opener by 2 billion points. Edey’s physicality and size complement Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr. in several ways—the foursome has a plus-13.6 net rating in 278 minutes this season—but adding more positional versatility while peeling away some of the awkwardness that’s imbued with Edey on the floor, might be a tiny step in the right direction. Being a rookie center in the playoffs is hard. Being a rookie center in the playoffs against what may be one of the greatest teams we’ve ever seen is untenable.
Personally, I’d start John Konchar, make Santi Aldama the backup center, and find more minutes for Vince Williams in an effort to throw different looks at a Thunder team that might be invincible. All Memphis needs to do is play faster, shoot more 3s, be chaotic and harder to scout, and increase its volatility. Sure, going up against Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein won’t be fun with a smaller frontcourt, and the rebounding battle will be fought uphill. But at the same time, Edey is a target who’s limited in how he can threaten the Thunder when Memphis has the ball. Sit him for a game or two. What else do the Grizzlies have to lose?
