Welcome to a draft installment of NFL Under Review, where I sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable decisions, and other topics around the NFL with an eye on what’s to come. These are my takes on what we saw during the 2025 draft.
The Falcons are a dumpster fire.
I mean, seriously—they deserve a mention in any conversation about the NFL’s worst-run franchises right now. You might recall that last year the Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million deal, and then about a month later drafted Michael Penix Jr. eighth overall. The Penix pick isn’t necessarily the problem. It’s almost always justifiable to take swings on talented quarterbacks in the draft. The issue was that the Falcons had no actual plan. That’s even more clear a year later as they try to unload Cousins, knowing that they’ll have to eat tens of millions of dollars to do so.
But what the Falcons did in the first round of this year’s draft might be even more egregious. The Falcons moved up from no. 46 to 26 to draft Tennessee edge rusher James Pearce Jr. Maybe Pearce will be great. I’m not arrogant enough to believe that I can project how every draft prospect is going to perform. The problem is that the Falcons are apparently that arrogant.
“When you say ‘was it a good trade or a bad trade,’ it’s not about the points, it’s about the player,” Falcons GM Terry Fontenot said Friday, according to The Athletic. “If you hit on a player that makes sense for you and is going to end up being a really good player for you, it was a good trade. I slept good last night.”
That line of thinking is flawed: You don’t know whether the player is going to be really good. That’s the whole premise of the draft! You are operating in a world of uncertainty and should make decisions that reflect that. To move up for Pearce, the Falcons gave the Rams a 2026 first-round pick (Atlanta also got back a 2025 third-rounder and gave up a seventh in the deal). That is flat-out reckless. This is a team with a projected win total of 7.5 for the 2025 season. If they’re slightly under that number, we’re talking about a potential top-10 pick.
Think about it this way: How many non-quarterbacks in the NFL would net a second-round pick (46th overall) and a future first in a trade? Not that many! So does it really make sense to give that up for a complete unknown like Pearce? Of course not.
The problem with the Falcons is that they don’t realize who they are. They have gone seven straight seasons without making the playoffs. In a league built on parity, that sort of drought is quite an accomplishment. They’ve consistently eschewed positional value with their top-10 picks (see: Kyle Pitts and Bijan Robinson), and they still seem to believe that they can out-evaluate their peers. Maybe Penix and Pearce will be great in 2025, and that future pick will be a late first-rounder. But even if that ends up being the case, the point still stands: The Falcons have no idea what they’re doing.
I don’t trust the Jaguars with Travis Hunter.
I really hope that I’m wrong. Hunter’s ceiling is becoming the coolest football player of my lifetime. The possibilities with him are so, so rare. We’re talking about a potential future that no other player in the NFL has. But there are always two parts of the projection with draft prospects:
- What is their ceiling?
- How likely are they to reach that ceiling?
It’s the second part that has me worried. New Jaguars general manager James Gladstone took a big swing in his first draft, moving up from no. 5 to no. 2 for Hunter. To do so, he also had to give up a second-round pick (no. 36 overall) and Jacksonville’s 2026 first. That is a steep price. If you’re a Jaguars fan, this is where you pause this column and say: “Shut up, you nerd. Who cares about value? We got Travis Freakin’ Hunter!” And that’s how you should feel! You have a fun new character in your life. You should be pumped that you get to watch Hunter play for the football team that you root for.
But if we’re evaluating whether this is likely to work out for the Jaguars, I have some concerns. One, it sure feels like Gladstone broke the cardinal rule of drafting: Don’t fall in love. Take a look at this clip.
Maybe Gladstone is brilliant and will eventually be viewed as an innovative mind who built a Super Bowl champion in Jacksonville by taking big risks. But let’s be honest: If he flames out in two years, we’ll look back on that clip as the moment we knew. (Another rule is to always be skeptical of people who finish every sentence with the word right.) This is a man who fell head over heels. He had to have Hunter. The price didn’t matter. That’s how sure he was of his evaluation of the Heisman winner. But for this to be judged as a good trade, given what the Jaguars gave up, Hunter has to be a unicorn in the NFL. He has to be a high-level two-way player. He has to do something that nobody in the NFL has done in, like, the past 60 years. Again, I hope we see it! But if I were in Gladstone’s shoes, I wouldn’t have been willing to bet such significant resources that we actually will see it.
The other thing we can’t ignore here is the organization’s track record. Since Shad Khan bought the Jaguars in 2012, they have been the worst franchise in the NFL. That’s not hyperbole. They have gone a league-worst 64-148, producing nine fewer wins than any other team in the NFL during that span. Is the organization that thought hiring Urban Meyer was a good idea really going to be able to put the infrastructure in place to maximize Hunter’s potential? Is the organization that stuck by Trent Baalke for a few years too many going to have an innovative plan for the NFL’s first two-way player in decades? I’m skeptical.
Bottom line: I hope I’m wrong. I hope Hunter is amazing and becomes the best player in Jaguars franchise history and does things that no other player could even imagine attempting. I hope the trade ends up looking like a home run and my takes here look ridiculously stupid. But it’s the Jaguars. All I’m saying is I need to see it to believe it.
The Rams are my biggest draft winner.
And it has nothing to do with the players they selected. I have no idea whether those guys will be good or not. But I do know that the Rams have positioned themselves well for a variety of potential outcomes going forward, and that is one of the hardest things to do in the NFL. Usually, teams have a short window to contend for a title, and when that’s over, they have to take a big step back. Usually it’s because the quarterback gets old (or gets injured). And before draft weekend, it sure felt like the Rams would be in trouble if Matthew Stafford showed significant decline this season. But now? They have the resources to pivot.
Think back to late February. It was unclear whether Stafford would even be back with the Rams. He would be entering his age-37 season and has fought through a bunch of injuries. After a brief flirtation with other teams, Stafford and the Rams were able to work out an agreement for the 2025 season. That’s the best outcome for both parties. The Rams went 10-6 with Stafford as their starter last season and advanced to the divisional round before losing to the eventual Super Bowl champion Eagles. Going into 2025, they have the third-best odds to reach the Super Bowl in the NFC—behind only the Eagles and the Lions. This is a good team with a legit chance to do big things.
But the NFL is unpredictable—it’s the whole reason we watch. Even for the teams with good coaches and players and general managers like the Rams have, it’s hard to know which way a specific season will go. And that’s why what the Rams did this weekend was so big. As mentioned in the Falcons section above, the Rams traded down from no. 26 to 46 and acquired the Falcons’ 2026 first-round pick. The only thing that everyone seemed to agree on in this draft was that there wasn’t much of a difference in grades between the players you could take with the 15th pick and the 50th pick. With the Rams trading back, they showed that they weren’t overconfident in their ability to find a diamond their peers missed in that tier of players. There was no player when they were on the clock at no. 26 that they just had to have.
By moving back and picking up an additional 2026 first-round pick, they gave themselves tremendous optionality. Let’s say that the Rams have a successful season and do contend for a Super Bowl. Great. They can use the extra first-round pick to add a valuable player on a rookie contract, or they can use it to trade for a veteran to further bolster the roster. Let’s say that the Rams have a disappointing season, Stafford’s play falls off, and this is his final year with Sean McVay. All good! The Rams now have an extra first-round pick that they can potentially use in a trade for a different veteran quarterback. And if the Falcons are bad, the Rams could be positioned to draft their next quarterback with the first-round pick they received on Thursday, or they could package the two first-round picks to move up and control next year’s draft. They won’t be stuck. McVay and Les Snead will have options to figure out the best path forward without necessarily having to take a massive step back. That’s really difficult to achieve, but because of Snead’s maneuverings, the Rams are in a great spot.
This offseason couldn’t have gone much better for Caleb Williams.
Let me be clear—it still might not work out for Williams in Chicago! At this time last year, I fell into the trap of thinking that Williams had a great situation waiting for him in his rookie year. Whoops! It didn’t quite work out that way. But if you’re a Bears fan who wanted the franchise’s no. 1 priority this offseason to be setting Williams up for success, you’ve got to be happy with what Chicago has done.
It started with hiring Lions offensive coordinator Ben Johnson to be the head coach. Do we know for sure that Johnson will be a great head coach? Of course not. But he has a proven track record of scheming up prolific offenses during his time in Detroit. During the offseason, the Bears focused on rebuilding the interior of their offensive line through a series of trades (Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson at guard) and signings (Drew Dalman at center). Again, am I sure that these moves will work out? No. But I see the vision.
And finally, the Bears used three top-60 picks on offensive players in this weekend’s draft, selecting Michigan tight end Colston Loveland, Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III, and Boston College offensive tackle Ozzy Trapilo. We are following a theme here: I’m not positive that all of those players will work out, but I understand what the Bears are trying to accomplish. On paper, we’re now looking at an offense with a rebuilt line, five new starters overall, two new pass-catching options in Loveland and Burden, and an established play caller in Johnson.
It feels like this sort of stable infrastructure will allow us to see exactly what Williams can be as an NFL quarterback. Maybe the Bears will be a disappointment once again, but it’s late April, and they at least have hope. That’s really all you can ask for.
The Patriots finally got Drake Maye some help.
Last year at this time, there was a whole lot of discussion about whether the Patriots should even play Maye as a rookie. They had a bad offensive line and a terrible group of pass catchers—a terrible environment for a young quarterback. As it turned out, those evaluations of the supporting cast were spot-on, but Maye showed he was able to overcome the disaster that surrounded him. He started 12 games and played well—in fact, he played really well. Over the past 10 seasons, among 31 qualifying rookie quarterbacks, Maye ranked fourth in dropback success rate—one spot ahead of C.J. Stroud from the previous season. The most impressive part was that he performed well despite facing difficult circumstances.
So the goal for the Patriots this offseason should have been obvious: get Maye some help so that he can really flourish in year two. But during the first part of the offseason, New England had a tough time accomplishing that goal. The Patriots struck out on some attractive wide receiver and offensive line options in free agency and eventually had to settle for a haul that included Stefon Diggs, Mack Hollins, Garrett Bradbury, and Morgan Moses. They spent most of their cap space on the defensive side of the ball.
That’s what made this draft so important for New England. They needed to get better on the offensive line, and they needed to get more explosive. The Patriots used the fourth pick on offensive tackle Will Campbell, who came out to Lil Wayne’s “Right Above It” (shout-out to my Ballers hive) and in his onstage interview said he was willing to die to protect Maye. If that doesn’t make him an immediate fan favorite in Foxborough, I don’t know what will. They spent their next two picks on a versatile running back in TreVeyon Henderson and a crafty wide receiver in Kyle Williams. The Patriots then took athletic Georgia center Jared Wilson in the third round. Four picks in the top 100, all used on the offensive side of the ball. They got better up front, and they added more playmakers. The rebuild for New England is going to take more than one draft, but at least they used their resources in a way that made sense, and the chances for Maye to make a second-year leap look a lot better now than they did a week ago.
