Back in November, I talked to Houston Rockets head coach Ime Udoka for a story about how he helped install one of the most hellacious defenses in the NBA. The Rockets entered this season as an intriguing wild card with modest expectations, various trade chips, and some exciting young talent, but their defense looked real enough to carry them further than pretty much everyone expected them to go.
At the end of our conversation, I asked Udoka whether there was anything else he wanted to add. He reiterated why having a top-five defense was “a nonnegotiable” component if this team was ever going to have championship-level aspirations. But then, almost off the cuff, Udoka made a slight pivot that didn’t end up in my story but hasn’t left the back of my head whenever I think about how compelling Houston’s circumstance is and what’s necessary for it to make an even deeper run in the future.
“We really wanted to solidify [defense] last year, and I think we laid that foundation,” he said. “But now we're really trying to get our offense going to kind of match that. And so part of the challenge was to come in and change the numbers and perception last year on that side. But we want to be a well-balanced team, and as much as defense is second nature to me, I'd say offense is as fun, and we want to grow in that area and be formidable on both sides of the ball.”
Pretty much all of this came true, but Houston's offense hasn't quite caught up to its defense yet. The Rockets finished with the fifth-stingiest defense in the NBA but had difficulty generating easy baskets on the other side, a dilemma that manifested during a seven-game bar fight against the Golden State Warriors. That first-round brawl ended as a microcosm of their identity and highlighted Udoka’s desire to find more balance.
It also leads us to the most important question these Rockets face as they head into what may be a trajectory-altering offseason: How do they become a dangerous offensive team? And, more specifically, who will emerge as the engine that’s able to power them where they want to go? Is he already on the roster? Or does he need to be acquired via trade? If the latter, what will it cost to acquire him, and is it potentially worth breaking up a core with such unknowable promise?
The Rockets finished the regular season 12th in offensive rating, but so much of that standing is thanks to second-chance opportunities, a low turnover rate, and defensive havoc that created advantages on the other end. When games slowed down, they were stagnant and flavorless, ranking 22nd in the half court. Per Bball Index, Houston also ranked 18th in overall shot quality, and the only team that made the playoffs with a lower true shooting percentage was the Orlando Magic.
The struggles were magnified in the postseason, when the Rockets were even less efficient in the half court, posting an effective field goal percentage that was higher only than that of the Magic and Grizzlies—which is not great when you realize Fred VanVleet turned into an actual fireball halfway through the series. Spacing was still an issue, though, demonstrated by two putrid bookend performances in the opener and finale wherein they failed to score 90 points. Alperen Sengun was particularly inefficient, unable to enjoy some of the edge he had during the regular season. Jalen Green was predictably a disaster.
For the entire roster, every other play seemed like a Sisyphean bum rush to the boards; Houston’s formula wasn’t to make shots so much as to take them and then fight for the misses. That all sounds bad, but it doesn’t necessarily make what happened a disaster. Falling to Steph Curry and the Warriors in seven games is more of a learning experience than a deflating catastrophe. Through the first four games, the Rockets were outscored by only nine points while making a playoff-worst 63.2 percent of their free throws. Games were competitive. The gap separating Houston from the aging, experienced, and desperately self-aware Warriors, who had the two best players in the series, wasn’t insurmountable. Pretty much every battle—including Game 7, at home—could have been the Rockets’.
Now that it’s over, all eyes will be on Rockets general manager Rafael Stone, who almost has too many trade chips at his disposal. As a reminder, Houston owns Phoenix’s first-round picks in 2025, 2027, and 2029, plus Dallas’s first-round pick in 2029, plus a pick swap with Brooklyn in 2027. Stone can either wait for some homegrown seeds to sprout or go into another garden and snatch up some flowers that have already bloomed. Restraint or action. There’s no wrong answer, per se, but prudence may carry less risk. Houston is ahead of schedule and still has time on its side. Let’s explore the patient path first.
The first domino to fall is VanVleet. Houston can (and should) decline the $44.9 million team option on its starting point guard’s contract and then extend him to a longer deal at a lower annual cost. The on-court and financial benefits of doing so are undeniable. FVV is 31 years old and undersized, and his true shooting was 6.5 percentage points below league average last season. He’s also a respected leader who controls the game’s tempo, reduces randomness, and provides indispensable basketball IQ and toughness to the defense. The Rockets are squishier without him: Their transition defense goes from elite to average when he’s off the floor, and their offense loses its shape.
After VanVleet, re-signing Steven Adams is the next priority. He will turn 32 in July but answered every health-related question this season with his play as a key complementary piece, backing up Sengun and coming out of nowhere to form Twin Tower lineups that pulverized the offensive glass and anchored a 2-3 zone that held up much better than anyone could’ve expected.
From there, the Rockets could let internal improvement be their step forward. Sengun (22 years old), Amen Thompson (22), Green (23), Jabari Smith Jr. (21), Tari Eason (23), Reed Sheppard (20), and Cam Whitmore (20) are all young enough to make meaningful strides on both ends next season. Whether Sengun becomes a more consistent scoring threat out of the pocket, Sheppard emerges as a dynamic pick-and-roll playmaker, Smith develops a more versatile in-between game, Green pairs poise with his athleticism, or Thompson finds new ways to exploit his paranormal physical gifts as a high-usage ball handler, growth is possible, if not realistic.
In its first playoff series, Houston’s youth movement enjoyed highs and endured lows. Green scored 38 points in a sensational Game 2 performance but looked unplayable in every big moment after that. Sengun was a bowling ball against Golden State’s small frontcourt for meaningful stretches but wasn’t able to hit enough floaters or draw enough fouls. Thompson’s nonexistent outside shot limited his impact off the ball. Smith looked comfortable getting to his spots but isn’t a consistent source of offense. Sheppard and Whitmore failed to crack Udoka’s rotation.
In general, young players with this much talent, situated in the right roles, eventually pop. There’s also a future where they don’t, which brings us to the tantalizing flip side of this equation.
What will the Rockets do if Giannis Antetokounmpo, Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Ja Morant, Jaylen Brown, or even someone like Lauri Markkanen becomes available? Each of those names obviously has a different runway and ceiling, and it’s impossible to know exactly who or what the Rockets would have to send out the door in any hypothetical trade that yields a new face for their franchise. But plop any of those All-Stars into a defense-first ecosystem that just yielded the second-best record in the Western Conference, and it’s easy to daydream about 60-win seasons. This also may be a massive gamble, though, assuming that Houston would have to surrender most, if not all, of its most valuable trade capital to get the established All-NBA force it currently lacks.
The CBA leads teams to place a premium on young, cost-controlled labor. Draft picks are treasured currency, and most organizations understand that sustainable winning and regeneration are almost impossible without them. That could mean packing them into a big trade offer when timing, opportunity, and desperation all converge. But at this juncture, it may be a wiser decision for the Rockets to bank on continuity and the complementary blend of youth and experience that pushed them so far this fast. Smart teams have grasped how critical it is to stay nimble in a league that evolves quickly. Sidebar: The Rockets own the ninth pick in this year’s draft (via the Suns) and have a 17.3 percent chance of leaping into the top four! If something crazy happens at next week’s lottery drawing, their approach to the offseason could change completely.
Giannis or Durant would be incredible additions, and the Rockets almost certainly would’ve defeated Golden State with one of those Hall of Famers on their roster. But there’s a level of urgency that comes with accelerating your timeline to keep up with a superstar addition, and it’s hard to know how much the Rockets would have to give up to pull off any of these trades. Antetokounmpo will turn 31 in December. Durant will turn 37 in September. Everyone worth getting is on a max contract that fills up at least 30 percent of the cap.
It may seem obvious to go get someone like KD, Giannis, or Booker, but blockbuster trades are not precise. They’re sticks of dynamite rammed deep inside a bulging rock. Sometimes the blast uncovers a mine of diamonds; sometimes the dynamite blows up in your hand. There may be a very near future in which Sheppard and Thompson form the best backcourt in the NBA, while Sengun turns his Nikola Jokic aesthetic into something more like Nikola Jokic production.
It’s OK for a young team to lose a playoff series against an opponent that has Curry, Jimmy Butler, and Draymond Green; lick its wounds; and come back next year with more information and introspection. With all these youngsters either on pricey extensions or about to get one, there are long-term financial considerations in play. But even though Houston has enough assets to go get an established superstar and not mortgage its entire future, the clock isn’t ticking loudly enough for the team to do anything it doesn’t absolutely need to. It can hold tight and revisit before the trade deadline or continue to sit on its hands until the roster forces it to move. Right now, the wisest option may just be creating an environment that’s best able to nurture the unbelievable talent the Rockets already have.
