The 2025 NBA Finals are here. Well, sort of. How about some predictions in the meantime?
The Oklahoma City Thunder will host the Indiana Pacers in Game 1 on Thursday night, tipping off one of the most unexpected Finals matchups in NBA history. While the Thunder ripped off a dominant 68-win regular season and cruised through two out of three series before their title clash, the Pacers are one of the most unlikely Finals participants ever. Indiana won just 50 games during the regular season and had to get past Giannis Antetokounmpo in the first round, the mighty Cleveland Cavaliers in the second, and their archrival the New York Knicks in the conference finals. Along the way, they pulled off some of the wildest comebacks in playoff history (including one all-time thriller) and became just the sixth no. 4 seed in NBA history to reach the Finals.
The Pacers’ prize? A showdown with the historically strong Thunder, who needed only five games to dispatch the Minnesota Timberwolves in the conference finals. By any objective measure, Oklahoma City is the deeper, younger, more talented, and more versatile squad. They’re a staggering -750 to win the Finals, according to FanDuel.
But the Pacers have been catching other teams off guard for weeks, which means that the Finals could be spicier than they would appear on the surface. To examine the matchup, The Ringer paneled its NBA staff to ask them for their predictions heading into Thunder-Pacers. Let’s dive in.
What’s your favorite story line of Oklahoma City Thunder–Indiana Pacers?
Howard Beck: To steal a line from intergalactic All-Star Leia Organa: It’s hope. Hope for small-market NBA franchises. Hope for fans in remote cold-weather outposts. Hope for anyone who doesn’t root for teams in L.A., San Francisco, New York, or Boston. We’re about to see a Finals featuring the nation’s 47th-ranked TV market (OKC) and the 25th-ranked market (Indianapolis), per Nielsen. Within the past four years, we’ve seen champions in Milwaukee (38th) and Denver (17th). This is what true parity looks like, and this is what the NBA has been trying to orchestrate (via increasingly strict payroll rules) for the past 15 years. Is it good for Finals ratings? I don’t really care. Competitive balance—and a belief in every NBA market that their team has a real chance—is objectively good for the league. So bemoan the convergence of two small-market wonders, if you must. I’m celebrating it.
Michael Pina: I’m most curious to see how Tyrese Haliburton holds up against one of the best defenses in NBA history. Can he run a highly efficient offense that doesn’t turn the ball over, generates a ton of corner 3s, and consistently puts Oklahoma City in rotation? On the other end, how will the Thunder handle Haliburton? Will they pressure him full court with Lu Dort, Cason Wallace, and Alex Caruso, then deny him the ball once he gives it up? Will they switch pick-and-rolls, turn him into a scorer, and make him attack Chet Holmgren or Isaiah Hartenstein one-on-one over and over again? Haliburton needs to have a hyper-disciplined, impeccably precise out-of-body experience for Indy to win. Can he do it?
Danny Chau: As someone currently in the process of applying for Canadian citizenship, I’m very happy about the sheer amount of CanCon we're getting in these Finals. Shout-out to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is about to put the finishing touches on an all-time season that will anoint him as the greatest Canadian basketball player ever. Shout-out to Andrew Nembhard, pride of Aurora, Ontario, and the Oak Ridges Moraine. Shout-out to Lu Dort, Bennedict Mathurin, and the richly embedded Haitian community in Montreal. Honorary shout-out to Pascal Siakam, who should be on anyone’s list of the top five Toronto Raptors of all time. These Finals, what a beauty.
Logan Murdock: The number of times St. Elmo’s will be referenced for no reason at all.
Tyler Parker: Paul George is the most consequential player in this series—honestly, the Thunder should invite him back for Game 1 as a thank-you—but I’ll go with James Johnson’s emotional return to Oklahoma City.
Oklahoma City is a massive favorite. What’s Indiana’s path to an upset?
Parker: There’s a path, but it’s treacherous, and at one point they will have to actually fly. But Haliburton’s properly sorcerous, and Indy’s got shooters. Rick Carlisle’s a great X’s and O’s coach, and the Pacers don’t turn the ball over. Short of employing Nikola Jokic, this offense, maybe more than any other offense in the league, has the tools to give the Thunder defense problems. When the wounds can come from anywhere, anything is possible. Is that a stupid line? That might be a stupid line.
Chau: The Pacers have been by far the most efficient 3-point-shooting team of the entire postseason, and if the Thunder remain steadfast in their principle of denying drives into the middle, there will be plenty of opportunities to launch from deep. If Indiana can ramp up its long-ball attempts without succumbing to a monumental regression at the worst possible time, that could be enough.
Murdock: Can the Pacers get Jesus or Caitlin Clark on a 10-day contract?
Beck: I expect the Thunder to win this series handily, for all the obvious reasons. But you never say never. The Pacers have defied odds and expectations all season, and they truly relish the role of spoiler. They’re capable of clamping down defensively and very capable of erasing big deficits. Haliburton seems to live for fourth quarters and crunch time. If Siakam can consistently win his battles with Holmgren, Jaylin Williams, et al., and if guys like Aaron Nesmith and Nembhard can make 3s at a high clip the way we’ve seen at key moments this postseason, then maybe the Pacers can shock us all.
Pina: If the Pacers are able to maintain their offensive identity, curb live-ball turnovers, consistently catch Oklahoma City off guard with a few easy buckets immediately after the Thunder score, and make more than half of their corner 3s and midrange jumpers, then yes, there is a path. Checking off that many boxes against a team that boasts an overall record of 80-18 is, random injuries permitting, extremely unlikely.
Give us one random prediction for the series.
Pina: Jalen Williams will win Finals MVP. I know this almost definitely won’t happen, but part of me believes that it can if he wreaks absolute havoc on both ends against the Pacers, who could throw the kitchen sink at Gilgeous-Alexander. In reality, it’s so hard to imagine a scenario in which SGA isn’t OKC’s Finals MVP regardless of how his numbers look. But since voters typically focus on statistical production, there’s definitely a situation where Williams really explodes on offense while being one of the main reasons the Thunder blow up Indiana’s attack.
Chau: Jaylin Williams will have a three-to-one minutes-played-to-charges-drawn ratio in the series.
Murdock: Indy will catch OKC slipping and steal Game 1.
Beck: Haliburton—in the spirit of his Dame Time taunt and Reggie Miller “choke” reenactment—will find a way to irritate the Thunder, perhaps by slyly mocking Gilgeous-Alexander’s, er, creative foul-drawing skills.
Parker: I can’t pick just one, so bear with me here: Bill Hader sits courtside for Game 5 in Oklahoma City. Aaron Wiggins scores 22 in Game 2. Pat McAfee takes the mic in Game 3 and announces a new line of tank tops. Gilgeous-Alexander wears his Reba T-shirt to Game 1. Garth Brooks descends from the rafters of the Paycom Center to sing the national anthem. He’s wearing all black. He’s punching the air. He’s screaming.
Who will win the Finals, and in how many games?
Chau: Thunder in six. OKC’s paradigm-shifting defense will ultimately win out, but not before getting sucked into the entropy of the Pacers’ offense once or twice. Indiana’s miraculous run ends here, but not without a bang.
Pina: Thunder in five. I picture this series going exactly like this year’s Western Conference finals or last year’s NBA Finals. The Thunder will hoist the Larry O’Brien Trophy after thoroughly dominating the series, save for one avalanche of a loss that doesn’t mean anything.
Beck: Thunder in five. Although it brings me no joy to say so. I truly hope that the Pacers can make this a series. But OKC simply has too much talent and depth—and a seemingly endless supply of elite defenders to stifle Indiana’s beautiful offense.
Murdock: Thunder in five. It’ll be an entertaining but short series. OKC is the best team in the league and will be the latest team to earn premature dynasty status by the end of June.
Parker: Thunder in six. I really wanted to say Thunder in five, but I have too much respect for the Pacers offense to count on a short series. But the Thunder have been a buzz saw all year, and they don’t seem to be slowing down anytime soon.
