The 2024 MLB season is here, and with it, another round of Ringer power rankings. Are these rankings predictive? In one sense, yes: Eight playoff teams ranked in the top 14 of our preseason power rankings last season, meaning they were generally right.
But in another sense, no, they are not, because as the cliché goes, you can’t predict baseball: The two World Series teams, which both reached the playoffs as wild cards, were 17th and 21st in these rankings. I wrote that the Rangers were “unlikely to return to the playoffs this season” and the Diamondbacks “probably won’t make the playoffs this season.” Oops! (At least I correctly pegged the D-backs as a surprise team in our staff predictions post; apparently, they surprised even me.)
So congratulations, I suppose, to the Mets and Red Sox, who rank 17th and 21st, respectively, in the 2024 edition of our annual preseason power rankings. I’m sure the TV networks will be thrilled with a 1986 World Series rematch this fall. But where do the other 28 teams land in the pecking order? Read on to find out.
1. Atlanta Braves
With nearly the entirety of Atlanta’s division-winning core locked up for the next half-decade or more, I might as well write a good introductory sentence now and copy-paste it for many Marches to come: Ronald Acuña Jr., Austin Riley, Michael Harris II, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy, and Ozzie Albies form the foundation of a dynamic, five-tool lineup, while Max Fried, Spencer Strider, and Kyle Wright lock down the top of the rotation.
This was the first sentence of my blurb about Atlanta in the 2023 preseason rankings, and lo and behold, it’s almost all still true. Sub in Chris Sale for Wright—an upgrade if the veteran lefty can stay healthy—and Atlanta’s core looks even more fearsome now than it did a year ago.
It’s a mark of the randomness of MLB’s postseason that an 88-win Atlanta team won the World Series without Acuña in 2021, while the 2022 and 2023 versions each won more than 100 games only to lose in the NLDS. Another 100-plus wins and an NL East title would be no guarantee of further postseason success—but on the eve of the new season, Atlanta is the most likely team to raise the Commissioner’s Trophy this fall.
2. Los Angeles Dodgers
There’s a clear gap between the top two teams and everyone else—but there might be a decent-sized gap between the top two teams as well because Los Angeles has more roster questions than Atlanta does.
Can Mookie Betts hold up at shortstop for a full season? (Probably, but he’s untested there.) Is the rotation good enough? (Probably, but health and inexperience are legitimate concerns.) Will Shohei Ohtani remain in a Dodgers uniform all season? (Probably, but he now faces the outside chance of a suspension that nobody expected a week ago.)
The Dodgers look like a superteam almost every year, and 2024 is no exception after the team added Ohtani, Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Tyler Glasnow, and Teoscar Hernández in the offseason. These questions are mostly about picking nits with an otherwise spectacular roster. But that’s more than we can do with Atlanta’s.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
Perhaps even more than the two best teams in baseball, the Phillies are built to win in October, with a dominant duo at the top of the rotation, a deep bullpen full of flamethrowers, and a lineup that balances tremendous home run power with newfound defensive prowess. (Johan Rojas in center field and Brandon Marsh in left are quite the upgrades over Marsh in center and Kyle Schwarber in left.) There’s a reason this team finished just one win short of consecutive trips to the World Series.
The next step for the Phillies is better consistency throughout the regular season. In 2022, they started 21-29 and then won at a 95-win pace the rest of the way. In 2023, they started 25-32 before heating up to a 100-win pace thereafter. So as long as the club realizes the season begins before June this year, it should cruise back to the playoffs—and maybe even challenge Atlanta for the division crown.
Also note the gigantic gap between these three teams and the rest of the National League. After this top trio in the power rankings come eight AL teams among the next nine picks.
4. Baltimore Orioles
The 2023 Orioles were not quite the juggernaut that their 101 wins suggested; thanks in large part to clutch hitting and closer Félix Bautista, who led all AL pitchers in win probability added, they overperformed their 89-73 BaseRuns record by 12 games, which was by far the biggest gap in the majors.
And Baltimore didn’t so much improve this offseason as it filled in the gaps from last year’s roster: Craig Kimbrel, the only free agent the Orioles signed to an MLB contract, is a worse version of the injured Bautista, and Corbin Burnes, their main trade acquisition, might end up effectively replacing Kyle Bradish if last year’s fourth-place Cy Young finisher misses extended time with an elbow injury.
But Baltimore’s best-in-baseball farm system means the club’s ceiling and floor are both elevated. Adley Rutschman is the only irreplaceable position player on the roster; an injury to anyone else would just mean more playing time for no. 1 overall prospect Jackson Holliday (curiously starting the season in the minor leagues), Coby Mayo, Heston Kjerstad, or any other number of elite prospects pounding on the big league door. With that kind of support over 162 games, don’t be surprised if the Orioles avoid the typical sting of regression and clinch the best record in the American League once again.
5. Houston Astros
The Astros have made seven ALCS appearances in a row, and an eighth may well be on the horizon. This lineup should continue to mash, as young slugger Yainer Diaz finally supplants Martín Maldonado behind the plate and joins all the Houston stalwarts who have mashed together for years. (Among players with at least 400 plate appearances last season, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Altuve, and Kyle Tucker all ranked in the top 13 in wRC+.)
But have you seen this team’s rotation to start the season, while Justin Verlander, Lance McCullers Jr., José Urquidy, and Luis Garcia all rehab injuries? Framber Valdez is the only healthy Astros starter who posted a better-than-average FIP last season (and he wasn’t the same in the second half); Cristian Javier, Hunter Brown, Ronel Blanco, and J.P. France all slotted in at slightly below to far below average.
The Astros are still the Astros, but it’s hard to have quite as much faith in a team with about 1.5 trustworthy starters.
6. Texas Rangers
The World Series champs are conducting a fascinating experiment with their pitching staff in their attempt to repeat. Three of Texas’s top four starting pitchers—Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, and Tyler Mahle—won’t be available until midseason at best as they recover from injuries. But as long as fill-ins like Michael Lorenzen and Dane Dunning can hold down the fort until reinforcements arrive, Texas should be well-suited for a second-half charge.
And the offense should soar all season, as two of the league’s most exciting rookies—Evan Carter and Wyatt Langford—join incumbent stars Corey Seager, Marcus Semien, and Adolis García. The Rangers certainly aren’t favored to become the first repeat champions since the 1998-2000 Yankees, but they at least enter the season with a chance.
7. Tampa Bay Rays
Stop me if you’ve heard this one before: The Rays have a lot of injured starting pitchers, a lot of position player depth, and a lot of anonymous but excellent relievers. Tampa Bay has reached the playoffs five years in a row with this general formula, and that train probably won’t stop chugging now.
Which Rays reclamation project will awe and surprise this year, as converted reliever Zack Littell did in 2023? Keep an eye on Chris Devenski, the onetime fireman wunderkind for Houston, who’s an option to start for Tampa Bay this season despite pitching almost entirely as a reliever and not finishing with an ERA below 4.18 in any season since 2017.
8. Seattle Mariners
According to FanGraphs, 24 pitchers are projected to record at least 3 wins above replacement this season. Only a handful of teams have more than one ace. Two each pitch for Atlanta (which places first in these power rankings), the Dodgers (second), the Phillies (third), and the Cubs (farther down). But a league-best three such pitchers play for the Mariners: Luis Castillo, George Kirby, and Logan Gilbert. No. 4 starter Bryce Miller and no. 5 Bryan Woo (who will start the season on the injured list) are no slouches, either.
Add in the lineup depth for which inveterate trader Jerry Dipoto wheeled and dealt this offseason—Mitch Garver, Jorge Polanco, Mitch Haniger, Luke Raley, and Luis Urías all entered the fold—and the Mariners look like a legitimate threat to compete for their first AL West title since 2001. At the very least, even if the Astros and/or Rangers outpace them, a wild-card berth should be well within their grasp.
9. New York Yankees
In an initial draft of these rankings, the Yankees were three spots higher. Then Gerrit Cole’s elbow started barking, and the chief downside of building a stars-and-scrubs roster reared its ugly head. As it is, Cole is unlikely to pitch in the majors for the season’s first two months, and he might miss the entire season if rest doesn’t help him heal.
The absence of the reigning AL Cy Young winner leaves the Yankees rotation reliant on bounce-backs from Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes Jr., but a weak back of the rotation and aberrantly subpar bullpen could stress New York’s run prevention to the breaking point. Sure, Juan Soto should provide the offense with a massive boost by giving Aaron Judge a worthy partner—but Judge also enters the season with injury concerns, and the Yankees lineup, which is already missing DJ LeMahieu, doesn’t have the depth of the division rival Orioles and Rays.
Projection systems still peg the Yankees as more likely to make the playoffs than not, but they need a lot of questionable body parts to cooperate to make that projection a reality.
10. Arizona Diamondbacks
It’s difficult to decipher this Diamondbacks squad, which reached the World Series after knocking out the Brewers, Dodgers, and Phillies (good!) but finished the regular season with a negative run differential and made the playoffs only because the National League standings were so skewed (bad!).
The optimistic view is that Arizona shored up some weaknesses this winter through the additions of veterans Jordan Montgomery, Eduardo Rodríguez, Joc Pederson, and Eugenio Suárez. (Montgomery and E-Rod in particular should help, once the former gets in game shape and the latter returns from a lat strain, because Arizona survived the playoffs with about 2.5 good starters.) The pessimistic view is that Arizona is still clearly a class below the Dodgers, and outside continued improvement from youngsters Corbin Carroll, Gabriel Moreno, and Brandon Pfaadt, the roster doesn’t contain many areas with obvious upside.
11. Minnesota Twins
The Twins basically sat out the winter and now have a couple of glaring roster problems at hand: They didn’t replace Cy Young runner-up Sonny Gray, and they’re desperately counting on oft-injured players such as Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis to play every day because the position player depth behind them is a concern.
However, the team’s greatest advantage is its continued presence in the weak AL Central, which should mute the impact of those issues. (An excellent core of young hitters, including Lewis, Edouard Julien, and Matt Wallner, is also a distinct strength.) FanGraphs’ schedule-neutral projections say that the Twins and Blue Jays have basically the same roster quality, but Minnesota is projected to win its division by five games, while Toronto is projected to finish fourth in the AL East.
12. Toronto Blue Jays
Speaking of Toronto! The Blue Jays retain a strong, balanced roster but face an important overarching question: Will Toronto’s stars live up to their reputations in 2024? Kevin Gausman suffered from shoulder fatigue this spring. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. led all qualified first basemen in WAR in 2021 but tied for ninth in the same stat in 2022 and 19th in 2023. George Springer is coming off the worst offensive season of his career. A bunch of average-ish seasons from their best players would hamper the Blue Jays’ competitive potential, once again relegating them to a wild-card berth at best.
13. Chicago Cubs
The Cubs finished nine games behind the Brewers last season, even though the Cubs’ BaseRuns record was six games better. The difference was that Chicago finished eight games worse than its “deserved” record, while Milwaukee finished seven games better than its underlying numbers suggested.
Maybe the difference was the manager the Cubs swiped from their division rival this winter, Craig Counsell, who has a knack for coaxing the best out of his team. The Wrigley Field faithful had better hope that move matters, because other than replacing Marcus Stroman with Shota Imanaga, this is basically the same Cubs roster that made strides but failed to reach the playoffs last season.
14. San Diego Padres
The Padres lost their best hitter (Juan Soto), best starter (Blake Snell), and best reliever (Josh Hader) from last season—yet it wouldn’t be a surprise if they finished with a better record than last year’s 82-80 mark.
Part of that optimism stems from A.J. Preller’s typically active offseason: Michael King (from the Soto trade) and Dylan Cease (essentially the right-handed version of Snell) have joined the rotation. Part of it is a bet that the Padres’ horrendous luck in close games (9-23 in one-run contests, 2-12 in extra innings) will even out. And part of it is a belief that even without Soto and Snell, this lineup and rotation are simply too talented—Fernando Tatis Jr.! Manny Machado! Xander Bogaerts! Cease! Yu Darvish! Joe Musgrove!—not to compete for a wild-card berth.
15. San Francisco Giants
Despite scant activity at the start of winter, the Giants remained opportunistic and ended up making a bunch of meaningful roster improvements. Although they missed out on Ohtani and Yamamoto (and Judge and Carlos Correa last winter), the Giants signed Jung Hoo Lee, Jordan Hicks, Jorge Soler, Matt Chapman, and Blake Snell—the final two to short-term deals in March after the contracts they were seeking didn’t materialize.
The rotation still relies on unproven starters after Snell and Logan Webb, and the lineup still doesn’t have an obvious foundational centerpiece (other than Patrick Bailey, who’s a defensive wizard behind the plate but carries a questionable bat). But after finishing with a winning record just once since 2016, the Giants should get over the hump to 82 wins and wild-card contention this season.
16. St. Louis Cardinals
Projections think the Cardinals will bounce back from their 71-91 disaster in 2023—the franchise’s worst record since 1990—and new starters Sonny Gray (currently injured), Lance Lynn, and Kyle Gibson should help. But how much? Lynn allowed an MLB-worst 44 home runs last season, en route to a 5.73 ERA, and Gibson has recorded a better-than-average ERA once in the past half decade. Sure, they’re better than Adam Wainwright in his swan song (not to be confused with his country songs), but this rotation still looks like one of the worst on a contender.
The lineup should provide balance, though, as St. Louis is projected to have above-average production (more than 2 WAR) from every position except designated hitter. The Cardinals lineup is balanced between lefties and righties, youth and experience, power and speed. But can they score enough to compensate for another lackluster staff?
17. New York Mets
The Mets look a lot like the Cardinals: They’re both 2023 underachievers who hope that a strong lineup can help them return to contention in 2024. Two factors drop New York one rung below St. Louis in these power rankings, however. First, the Mets rotation is even worse than the Cardinals’ as long as ace Kodai Senga is hurt; any team relying this much on Luis Severino and his 6.65 ERA from last season can’t actually be considered a favorite to reach the postseason.
Second, the Mets play in the NL East, where they enter the season well behind Atlanta and Philadelphia. What’s more likely this year: that New York will return to playoff contention or that the club will trade impending free agent Pete Alonso at the trade deadline?
18. Milwaukee Brewers
Burnes, Counsell, and former president of baseball operations David Stearns are gone, and Devin Williams and Brandon Woodruff are hurt. That’s five of the most important figures from the Brewers’ recent run of contention all out (whether temporarily or permanently).
Milwaukee still deserves some benefit of the doubt because of that recent success; other than the 2020 season, when they went 29-31, the Brewers have had at least 86 wins every year since 2016. But the Brewers have considerable downside potential this season, with the rotation looking shakier than ever and the offense relying on a bevy of unproven youngsters, led by elite prospect Jackson Chourio.
19. Cincinnati Reds
Like their most exciting player, Elly De La Cruz, the Reds enter the season with a massive gap between their high ceiling and low floor. De La Cruz could round into a five-tool superstar, and Cincinnati could win the NL Central for the first time in a dozen years. Or De La Cruz’s 34 percent strikeout rate could limit his production at the plate, and Cincinnati could flounder in a closely bunched division. (Baseball Prospectus’s projection system indeed deemed the Reds the “hardest team to predict.”)
The club’s most immediate concern is player absences. The Reds went from having too many good infielders to possibly not enough: Noelvi Marte is out for 80 games due to a PED suspension, and Matt McLain might need shoulder surgery. Cincinnati’s lineup doesn’t look nearly as deep without that duo and outfielder TJ Friedl, who broke his wrist earlier this month.
20. Cleveland Guardians
The Guardians hit 27 fewer home runs than any other team last season. And to address that glaring problem over the offseason, they … signed Austin Hedges—the majors’ worst active hitter by a mile—and traded for a few minor leaguers.
Once again, Cleveland has José Ramírez, a strong starting rotation, and a skilled defense; once again, the team is hoping that’s sufficient to compete in a weak AL Central.
21. Boston Red Sox
The Red Sox have half a dozen no. 4 or 5 starters on the roster, but unfortunately, the man they signed to take the ball on Opening Day—Lucas Giolito—is out for the season after tearing his UCL. Unless Rafael Devers or Triston Casas secretly learned how to pitch over the winter, that’s about it for the club’s playoff chances. If the city of Boston were to shift about 700 miles west so the team could play in the AL Central, the Red Sox might have a chance to win the division—but in the AL East, they’ll need some luck to avoid their third last-place finish in a row.
22. Detroit Tigers
Buoyed by a strong finish to last season, and led by Cy Young candidate Tarik Skubal on the mound and a youth brigade in the field, the Tigers look like a sneaky contender to usurp the AL Central throne. Of course, basically the same could be said about the 2022 Tigers, and they face-planted to the tune of a 66-96 record.
Along with the Angels, Detroit has the joint longest playoff drought in the majors, with no October trips since 2014. The nicest observation to make about the Tigers is that, even with recent history against them, they’re a whole lot closer to ending that drought than the Angels are.
23. Miami Marlins
Four of Miami’s five best starting pitchers are hurt, and these aren’t minor injuries. Sandy Alcantara already underwent Tommy John surgery, Eury Pérez is in elbow inflammation limbo, and both Braxton Garrett and Edward Cabrera are dealing with shoulder issues.
The Marlins felt confident enough in their pitching core that they traded from a position of strength a year ago, when they swapped Pablo López for Luis Arraez in a win-win deal. Now, as they attempt to return to the playoffs, they’re stuck with converted reliever A.J. Puk as their no. 2 starter, followed by Ryan Weathers and his career 5.88 ERA in the no. 3 spot.
24. Kansas City Royals
The Royals bottomed out last season with a 56-106 record that tied for the worst in franchise history. (And that’s saying something for a club with Kansas City’s track record.) But that 106-loss team planted exciting seeds for this season, because the Royals have dark-horse candidates to win both the AL MVP and Cy Young awards.
Shortstop Bobby Witt Jr. is tied for the seventh-best odds to win the former, per FanDuel, while midseason pickup Cole Ragans—who led all pitchers in fWAR from August onward—has the eighth-best odds for the latter. This offseason, Witt signed a long-term extension, and Ragans was deemed the “left-handed deGrom.” Who knew 106 losses could feel so good?
25. Los Angeles Angels
Averaged across 20,000 simulations of the coming season, FanGraphs’ projection system predicts the Angels will win 77.5 games, with a 17 percent chance to make the playoffs. Of course, the Angels never made the playoffs with Ohtani and Mike Trout on the roster together, and over the past three seasons—during which Ohtani won two MVP awards and finished runner-up for a third—they won 77, 73, and 73 games.
They can’t possibly win more than 77 or make the postseason with Ohtani now gone, can they? If so, it will be the greatest Ewing Theory example in years.
26. Pittsburgh Pirates
If all goes well, 2024 could be a monumentally important transition season for Pittsburgh. By the end of the year, health permitting, the Pirates could have the top four hitters and top three pitchers of their future in place: Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and 2021 no. 1 pick Henry Davis would occupy the former slots, while Mitch Keller, rookie Jared Jones, and recent no. 1 pick Paul Skenes would claim the latter, giving the Pirates’ penurious owner a cheap, young core to build around for years to come.
A lot more would have to go right for Pittsburgh to make the NL Central a true five-team race this season. But the Pirates have a brighter future than several teams with better outlooks in 2024 alone.
27. Oakland Athletics
Squint and you’ll see the outline of a not-so-terrible lineup in Oakland this season. (Or in Las Vegas in the future, if recent ballpark renderings are any indication.) Zack Gelof, Brent Rooker, and Ryan Noda each posted a 123 wRC+ or better last season. Seth Brown, JJ Bleday, and Shea Langeliers all raked in spring training. J.D. Davis—signed this month after the Giants used some contract shenanigans to cut him loose—can always hit.
The major question about the A’s, of course, is where their field will be in the future, not who will play on it or what will happen there. But owner John Fisher deserves congratulations: After losing 112 games last season, his team is no longer the majors’ worst!
28. Washington Nationals
In each of the past three seasons, Patrick Corbin has made at least 30 starts despite posting an ERA north of 5. This fact is notable for two reasons. First, Corbin symbolizes the broader Nationals trajectory over the past five years: tremendous success en route to a World Series triumph, followed by an almost immediately catastrophic collapse. Corbin has allowed by far the most runs in the majors over the past three seasons, but the Nationals keep sending him out every fifth day because they don’t have any better options, and, what the heck, they’re paying him anyway.
The second interesting aspect of this streak is that if Corbin extends it, he’d be the first pitcher in MLB history with four seasons in a row of 30-plus starts and an ERA of 5.00 or higher. Only one other pitcher has ever had four such seasons, not in a row: Bobby Witt Sr. So keep an eye out for Patrick Corbin Jr. to contend for an MVP trophy sometime in the late 2040s.
29. Chicago White Sox
Luis Robert, once called the “best player on the planet” when he was still a prospect, came closer to that lofty billing last year when he posted a 5-WAR, 38-homer, 20-steal season and eclipsed 100 games for the first time in his career.
And White Sox fans shouldn’t focus on any other part of their team’s roster, as Robert is just about the only remaining draw at Guaranteed Rate Field. Even announcer extraordinaire Jason Benetti has decamped to Detroit.
30. Colorado Rockies
Say this for the Rockies: They fleeced Cleveland in the Nolan Jones trade. And it’s a good thing they did, because the young outfielder is the only Rockie projected for even 2 WAR—the mark of an average player—this season.
