Week 6 saw the NFL’s last two undefeated teams—the San Francisco 49ers and Philadelphia Eagles—suffer their first losses. The Detroit Lions and Houston Texans continued to impress, and the Los Angeles Chargers continued to, well, Charger. What’s in store for Week 7? Let’s get to the picks!
Lines are from FanDuel as of Thursday morning. Stats are from TruMedia and Pro Football Focus unless otherwise noted.
Week 6 record: 7-8
Season record: 47-44-2
Jacksonville Jaguars at New Orleans Saints (-1.5)
Jaguars quarterback Trevor Lawrence is questionable for this one after suffering a knee injury in last week’s win over the Colts. On paper, it’s been a nice start to the season for the Jaguars. They’re 4-2 and have outscored opponents by a total of 38 points in their past three games. Their defense has overachieved, but the offense still feels a little uneven to me. This isn’t a team I trust quite yet.
The Saints, meanwhile, managed to score just 13 points last week despite piling up 430 yards against the Texans.
I’m going to go ahead and assume that Lawrence is playing, even though he might have limited mobility. I could see the Jaguars struggling against this Saints defense, but ultimately I’m just going to go with the coach I trust more in this spot, and that’s Doug Pederson.
The pick: Jaguars (+1.5)
Cleveland Browns at Indianapolis Colts (+2.5)
Anthony Richardson being out for the season is a bummer for Colts fans and NFL fans. He attempted just 84 passes in his rookie season but already looked like one of the most exciting players in the league. Given Richardson’s lack of experience, the one thing he needs more than anything else is reps, and now he’s not going to get those. Then again, he’ll be just 22 years old at the start of next season. Let’s hope that the injuries he suffered as a rookie were fluky and he takes the league by storm in 2024.
As for the Browns, their defense leads the NFL in the following categories:
- Points allowed per game
- Yards allowed per game
- Success rate
- Expected points added (EPA) per drive
Perhaps what’s most impressive is that they are dominating without being reliant on turnovers. The Browns are tied for 30th in total takeaways. If they start benefiting more from turnover luck, the numbers could look even better!
As of this writing, it’s unclear whether Cleveland QB Deshaun Watson will return for this game, but he did not practice Wednesday and declared himself to be “day-to-day.” I would usually fade a team like the Browns coming off a big win like the one they had last week against the 49ers, but I just have too much faith in their defense to make life hard on Colts quarterback Gardner Minshew.
The pick: Browns (-2.5)
Washington Commanders at New York Giants (+2.5)
Despite losing to the Bills on Sunday night, the Giants played what was probably their best game of the season. They outgained the Bills and were one play away from stealing that game on the road.
The Commanders offense started off hot against the Falcons last week, but then sputtered. Their defense came up with timely takeaways but still allowed 402 yards of offense to Atlanta.
The matchup of Washington’s defensive line against the Giants offensive line gives me some concern, but overall, the Commanders defense has underperformed this season. Assuming it’s Tyrod Taylor starting at quarterback again, I think the Giants have a chance to ugly this game up and win a low-scoring affair. If nothing else, I think this game has the best nap potential for anyone who tunes in.
The pick: Giants (+2.5)
Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-2.5)
If you’re a Falcons fan, what was last week like for you? In the morning, you watched Ravens QB Lamar Jackson carve up the Titans defense in the London game. Jackson was available in the offseason, but the Falcons were quick to let it be known that they had no interest. Then you watched your own offense go up and down the field against Washington, but Desmond Ridder’s three interceptions sunk the Falcons in a 24-16 loss. Maybe the Ravens were never going to let Jackson get away, but if I’m a Falcons fan, I sure would have liked to have seen them be aggressive and find out. If they had replaced Ridder with Jackson, I believe they’d have a Super Bowl contender right now.
As for the Bucs, they seem to be coming back down to earth. They failed to score a touchdown in a 20-6 loss to the Lions last week and are now 3-2 on the season. Does Ridder going up against a Todd Bowles–coached defense terrify me? Of course. But I don’t trust either quarterback, so I’m taking the points.
The pick: Falcons (+2.5)
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (+8.5)
The best betting strategy of the past two years: Fade the Patriots as underdogs. After last week’s loss to the Raiders, the Patriots have now failed to cover as underdogs in 11 (!) straight games with Mac Jones as their quarterback. There are no more disclaimers necessary. This is just a flat-out terrible team. They’re 1-5 and have been outscored by 80 points, which is second worst to only the Giants.
The Bills offense has looked terrible over the past two weeks. And their injuries on defense are legitimately concerning. Buffalo was lucky to eke out a win over the Giants on Sunday night.
Having said that, the Bills have owned the Patriots in recent years. They’ve won four straight against New England—all by at least 12 points—and now they get a Patriots team that is averaging 11.7 points per game. The Bills don’t have to be perfect. Their C-game should be enough to cover this number.
The pick: Bills (-8.5)
Las Vegas Raiders at Chicago Bears (+3)
As of this writing, it sounds like Bears QB Justin Fields is doubtful with a thumb injury he suffered in last week’s loss to the Vikings. Jimmy Garoppolo’s status is also uncertain because of the back injury he suffered last week, and he did not practice Wednesday.
So, I’ve got two options here:
- Take Tyson Bagent to cover, even though I had never heard of Tyson Bagent before last Sunday when he replaced Fields, and I cover the NFL for a living.
- Take Josh McDaniels and either Aidan O’Connell or Brian Hoyer as road favorites.
Somebody give me a third option. Please. I’m begging you!
You don’t expect me to give you actual analysis on this one, do you? Let’s just make the painful pick and move on.
The pick: Bears (+3)
Detroit Lions at Baltimore Ravens (-3)
Such a fun coordinator battle in this one. Ben Johnson continues to do a fantastic job of scheming up big plays for the Lions and putting Jared Goff in positions to succeed. Through six weeks, the Lions have produced a league-high 29 completions of 20-plus yards. Meanwhile, Mike Macdonald’s Ravens defense continues to impress. Baltimore is second in defensive DVOA, behind only the Browns.
These are legitimately two of the eight best teams in the NFL. The Lions are tied for the best record in the NFC at 5-1. Their plus-55 point differential is fifth overall and second in the conference, behind only the 49ers. The Ravens, meanwhile, are 4-2, and their two losses were among the dumbest we’ve seen from any team this season. They could easily be 6-0.
I have flip-flopped on my pick here roughly 27 times. I could see a scenario in which the Ravens defense gets after Goff, who famously struggles against pressure, and we all say, “OK, the Lions aren’t quite there yet.” I could also see a scenario in which Detroit wins again, and we have the “They are right there with any team in the NFC” conversation. I really like this Lions team. I think it’s a toss-up game, and I’m taking the points.
The pick: Lions (+3)
Pittsburgh Steelers at Los Angeles Rams (-3)
I have an announcement to make: The days of me blindly taking Mike Tomlin as an underdog are over. I just can’t do it anymore. The Steelers are 53-31-4 (.631) against the spread as an underdog under Tomlin. Even in the past couple of years, post-Ben Roethlisberger, they’ve been great in this spot (9-5-1). But this current Steelers offense is just so, so painful to watch. Through six weeks, the Steelers offense is 29th in EPA per drive and 32nd in success rate.
Meanwhile, I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from this Rams offense. They are fifth in EPA per drive and fourth in success rate. Matthew Stafford is consistently making tough throws, and Cooper Kupp has looked like his usual self since returning from injury.
I’m so sorry, Mike. It didn’t have to end this way for us. We had a lot of good times. But as long as Matt Canada is calling offensive plays for you, I just can’t blindly follow the underdog trend. It’s not you; it’s me. I hope that we can still be friends.
The pick: Rams (-3)
Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-7.5)
I came away from the Seahawks’ loss to the Bengals last week still feeling really good about Seattle. Pete Carroll’s team consistently moved the ball but was a disaster in the red zone (1-for-5). Defensively, it felt like Seattle’s most impressive performance of the season. The Seahawks held the Bengals to 52 yards and a field goal in the second half.
The Cardinals, meanwhile, have been outscored by 50 total points during their current three-game losing streak. Their defense doesn’t generate a lot of pressure, and they give up too many easy completions. Opposing quarterbacks have completed 70.9 percent of their passes against Arizona this season. This feels like a spot where Seattle QB Geno Smith has a big game. There’s a significant talent disparity between these two teams. Give me the Seahawks.
The pick: Seahawks (-7.5)
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5)
As we discussed on this week’s episode of Extra Point Taken, there was nothing egregious about the Chargers’ loss to the Cowboys on Monday night. Those were two relatively evenly matched teams, and Dallas won by a field goal. It happens. But the experience of watching the Chargers continues to underwhelm. They just feel like a mostly toothless bunch with no real identity.
Coming into the season, there already seemed to be a lot of Justin Herbert fatigue, and there’s no sugarcoating his performance against Dallas. He played poorly, and his performance was one of the reasons they lost.
The Chiefs made a trade with the Jets this week and are bringing wide receiver Mecole Hardman back, but it still feels like they lack some firepower on offense. The floor is always going to be high with Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid, but the ceiling now feels somewhat limited, compared to past versions of the Chiefs.
We all know what the most Charger-y thing to do here would be: Beat the Chiefs, get the fans excited again, and then let them down in the dumbest way possible in the weeks ahead. Let’s go with that.
The pick: Chargers (+5.5)
Green Bay Packers at Denver Broncos (+1.5)
I keep seeing reports about a Broncos fire sale before the trade deadline. Who exactly are the players on this roster that other teams covet? I just don’t see it. The good news for the Broncos is that their defense wasn’t a complete disaster in the Week 6 loss to the Chiefs. The bad news is that it looked like their offense hadn’t practiced all week. Hey, at least they’re finding different ways to lose!
Before the Packers’ bye last week, their offense was really struggling. Every Jordan Love completion felt like a surprise. On the season, Love’s 55.6 completion percentage ranks dead last out of 33 qualified quarterbacks. But this is the week to turn that around. Opponents are completing a league-high 76.4 percent of their passes against Denver’s defense this season.
I think Matt LaFleur will find ways to scheme up some big plays against the Broncos, and let’s be honest: We all know the Jarrett Stidham game is coming soon for the Broncos. Maybe this is the week.
The pick: Packers (-1.5)
Miami Dolphins at Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)
The Dolphins are averaging 37.2 points per game. That’s the most for any team through the first six weeks in the past 10 seasons. Not bad! Miami fell behind 14-0 to the Panthers last week, and it didn’t matter. The Dolphins came back and scored 35 straight points en route to another victory.
The Eagles suffered their first loss of the season last week, which included Jalen Hurts throwing an uncharacteristic interception late in the fourth quarter against the Jets. Two big differences with this Eagles offense, compared to last season:
- They’re turning the ball over at a much higher rate. With Hurts as their starter last season, they turned it over on 7.7 percent of their offensive possessions. Through six weeks this season, that number’s all the way up to 14.3 percent.
- They haven’t been nearly as efficient in the red zone. The Eagles are converting 45.5 percent of their red zone trips into touchdowns, compared to 68.6 percent last season.
I don’t expect the Eagles defense to slow down the Dolphins much, but their pass rush has a chance to impact the game. And this feels like it’ll be a run-heavy game plan in which the Eagles try to sustain long drives. I’ve gone back and forth a few times here, but I like the Eagles to bounce back in a close one at home.
The pick: Eagles (-2.5)
San Francisco 49ers at Minnesota Vikings (+7)
As of this writing, it’s unclear whether the 49ers will have RB Christian McCaffrey, WR Deebo Samuel, or LT Trent Williams, each of whom suffered injuries last week, for this game. San Francisco is coming off of its first loss, at Cleveland. But this Vikings defense doesn’t exactly compare to that Browns unit. Opponents have completed 75.2 percent of their passes against the Vikings this year. That’s second worst, behind only the Broncos.
The Vikings offense, meanwhile, managed just 12 first downs and 220 yards in last week’s win over the Bears. This is just a completely different group without Justin Jefferson on the field.
Even if the 49ers have some stars sit out, I think they’ll bounce back here with a convincing victory.
The pick: 49ers (-7)
