The state of the AFC playoff race through 13 weeks means that there’s basically zero playoff leverage for AFC teams to play for in Week 14. The Bengals and Dolphins are still clinging to life and hoping for the 7-seed, but six teams in the conference have a better than 90 percent chance of making the playoffs. Denver and Indianapolis are the two teams essentially vying for the final spot, and both have a bye.
The lack of AFC drama means that all playoff attention shifts to the NFC: The NFC South is tied at the top, the NFC West’s two top teams, Seattle and Arizona, play each other in a rematch, and two of the NFC’s top three Super Bowl favorites by betting odds—the Lions and the Packers—play each other on Thursday Night Football.
Week 14 marks the final round of bye weeks in the regular season, with six teams taking the week off: Denver, Indianapolis, New England, Washington, Baltimore, and Houston. This leaves us with 13 games in Week 14, and I’m previewing all of them, starting with that crucial NFC North clash on Thursday Night Football. I’ve included bets I’ve already made at the bottom of this post, and all lines are from FanDuel as of Wednesday morning, unless otherwise noted.
Thursday Night Football
Green Bay Packers at Detroit Lions (-3.5)
The Lions defense is facing its fourth game in 18 days, and injuries are starting to take a toll on the unit. Defensive linemen D.J. Reader, Levi Onwuzurike, and Josh Paschal all missed practice on Tuesday. Linebacker Alex Anzalone, who was absent last week, is on injured reserve. His absence was felt in the middle of the defense against Chicago. While the secondary will be strengthened by the return of Carlton Davis in place of Kindle Vildor, the Bears had no trouble moving the ball in the second half, suggesting that we may have already seen the best of the Lions defense this season.
Left tackle Taylor Decker also missed practice for the Lions offense on Tuesday. Detroit’s offense has been impressive this year, but I’ve remained somewhat skeptical about the defense all season, even though it’s been ranked second in expected points per play, second in DVOA, and sixth in success rate.
Both the Detroit and Green Bay defenses have excelled on late downs throughout the year, with both ranked in the top three in EPA per play allowed on third and fourth downs combined.
The key factor in this matchup will be Green Bay’s red zone offense against Detroit’s red zone defense. The Lions have allowed the second-lowest touchdown percentage in the red zone this year, while the Packers are just league average (15th) in red zone touchdown rate.
In their last meeting, Green Bay averaged 6.6 yards per play despite bad weather, but missed opportunities and a pick-six by Jordan Love allowed Detroit to win.
The Packers offense is likely to move the ball effectively and capitalize on scoring opportunities in the red zone in this matchup given how depleted Detroit is up front.
Verdict: Bet Green Bay team total over 23.5 (-118 at DraftKings).
Sunday Matchups
Jacksonville Jaguars at Tennessee Titans (-3.5)
This game has all the makings of a Sunday 1 p.m. ET matchup in December that you might forget is happening because RedZone hasn’t cut to it in an hour, it’s not on your YouTube TV multiview, and both teams are playing for nothing but draft positioning and pride. Shout-out to Mac Jones for the late touchdowns that helped Jacksonville cover the spread through the back door last week. The Jaguars have quietly gone 5-1 against the spread in their past six games, even though they’ve won just one of those games outright. They’ve been the ideal bad team for bettors this season, covering the spread in six of their 10 losses. This matchup has the potential to be a repeat of that scenario; Tennessee could win by a close margin, while the Jaguars cover. The Titans are 2-10 against the spread, making them the worst team in the NFL this season in terms of covering the spread.
Among the 44 quarterbacks who have played at least 60 snaps this season, both starting quarterbacks in this game rank in the bottom five in success rate.
40. Will Levis
41. Spencer Rattler
42. Mac Jones
43. Deshaun Watson
44. Tyler Huntley
The betting market has shifted significantly in favor of Jacksonville in this matchup since the opening line had the Titans as a 4.5-point favorite.
Verdict: Pass.
New York Jets at Miami Dolphins (-6.5)
Last week was yet another week when the market heavily favored the Jets on game day, yet they again failed to meet those expectations. The Jets have now received game-day steam—a term for market movement toward them—every game in the past month and have been favored in nine of their 12 games this season. This includes matchups against the Texans, Colts, Seahawks, Cardinals, and Steelers in the past two months, resulting in a 3-9 record. It’s one of the biggest gambling conundrums because it takes a lot of money and influence to cause these not-insignificant changes in the weekly betting lines.
While it’s true that the Jets’ underlying statistical profile is better than their record suggests, most of their bad-luck losses came early in the season. There’s nothing in the Jets’ profile from the last month that would warrant the continued market support. If this line dips below 6, I’ll be backing the Dolphins.
The Jets scored three touchdowns on Sunday at home in a dream spot off the bye against the Seahawks. One came from a kick return, one from a 27-yard drive following a Seattle fumble, and one on a drive that was extended by a Seattle penalty on a third-down sack. The Jets had 4.2 yards per play and just five “explosive plays.”
Since Week 8, when Tua Tagovailoa returned, here are the metrics for these two teams by EPA per drive.
Dolphins
Offense: Second
Defense: 17th
Jets
Offense: 23rd
Defense: 24th
The Dolphins have a considerable rest advantage after playing on Thanksgiving as well. I’m waiting for the weekly Jets steam before once again fading the corpse that is the 2024 Jets.
Look on the bright side, Jets fans: Only two weeks until the new Aaron Rodgers Netflix documentary is released.
Verdict: Bet Dolphins at -5.5 or better.
Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)
If you listen closely, you can hear Michael Penix Jr.’s music playing faintly in the background at the Falcons’ facility. Atlanta lost to the Chargers in Week 13 despite nearly doubling them up in yards, 350-187. Before kneeldowns, Los Angeles ran 15 second-half plays totaling 40 yards, with three punts, a turnover on downs, and no offensive points. Still, the Chargers won the game because Kirk Cousins threw a terrible pick-six on a weak throw to the boundary, then lobbed another gift of an interception into the end zone on third down in the second half.
The Falcons probably aren’t going to Penix this week, but their season hangs in the balance now following three consecutive defeats to the Saints, Broncos, and Chargers. While this is a revenge game for Cousins against his former team, Brian Flores’s aggressive blitzing scheme paired with elite run defense isn’t a friendly matchup for the immobile Cousins, who doesn’t have the ability to navigate a congested pocket like he used to.
Atlanta will be able to move the ball at times, but red zone inefficiency stemming from an inability to run the ball will lead to a bunch of field goals and the Falcons going under their team total. The Falcons don’t generate much defensive havoc, so that should help Sam Darnold avoid costly turnovers.
Verdict: Bet Falcons team total under 20.5 points (-124).
New Orleans Saints at New York Giants (+4.5)
During the Saints’ eventual loss to the Rams, there was a brief moment when it seemed like they might move to 5-7 for the season and 3-0 under interim head coach Darren Rizzi. However, Taysom Hill was carted off with an injury, the Rams offense scored three second-half touchdowns, and the Saints’ hopes of making the playoffs were effectively ended. New Orleans isn’t out of it yet thanks to the mediocrity of the NFC South, but it’s hard to justify laying 4.5 points given the quality of their run defense and the loss of Hill, their Swiss Army knife offensive player.
I mentioned last week that the Giants made a meaningful upgrade from Tommy DeVito to Drew Lock, but that did not play out on the field in their loss to the Cowboys. After an opening-drive touchdown that mostly involved run plays and a big Lock scramble, the Giants managed only 29 yards on the next 27 plays, spanning eight possessions. It wasn’t until the Cowboys were up 27-10 that the Giants were able to find any semblance of an offense.
Of all the bad teams in the NFL this year, you could make a convincing case that the Giants are the worst as currently constructed. Star defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence is now out for the season, and the defensive line was one of the Giants’ few strengths. They haven’t announced whether DeVito or Lock will be starting, but either way, this game is an easy pass.
Verdict: Pass
Carolina Panthers at Philadelphia Eagles (-12.5)
The Panthers certainly didn’t make it easy for those who bet on them against the spread in their loss to the Bucs last week. They missed two field goals in the second quarter, and then Chuba Hubbard fumbled in overtime when Carolina was in field goal range to kick the game winner. But Bryce Young looks like a completely different player since returning from being benched, and when you combine that with Carolina’s improved offensive line health and the return of the reliable Adam Thielen, all of a sudden, you should have a competent offense going forward.
Carolina is 2-2 in the past four weeks and has covered the spread in all four games. In that span, the Panthers have been 17th in success rate and 18th in EPA per dropback. Young will face his toughest test in this game, facing the league’s hottest defense in Philadelphia. The Eagles have now held Washington, Baltimore, and Cincinnati under 20 points during their eight-game win streak, and the defensive line is putting pressure on opposing offenses, but Vic Fangio isn’t being forced to blitz much at all.
The Panthers’ improvements in the past month have not included better showings against the run. Carolina is dead last in the NFL in rush success rate allowed and has still been among the league’s worst in the past month, despite improvements elsewhere. Bucky Irving had a big game against the Panthers last week, and there’s little to stop Saquon Barkley from doing the same.
Philadelphia has had issues with the script and in the first quarter, but this is a good opportunity to back the Eagles in the second half. They have the second-best scoring differential in the NFL after halftime.
Verdict: Bet Eagles second half -5.5 (-120).
Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5)
It takes a lot of courage to bet on Jameis Winston, especially after the chaos that unfolded in the final minutes of Monday night’s thriller in Denver. In that game, Cleveland gained 552 yards of offense and had nine more first downs than the Broncos, yet failed to cover the 6.5-point spread due to Winston’s two pick-sixes, plus an end-zone interception in the final minute. Cleveland typically covers that game about 95 percent of the time, but Winston’s unpredictability accounts for the other 5 percent.
One thing is evident about the Browns’ Winston-led offense: they are no longer stagnant. With him as the starter, Cleveland ranks 16th in success rate and 22nd in EPA per play. Since Week 8, Pittsburgh is 20th and Cleveland is 21st in combined success rate when considering both offense and defense. Two weeks ago, I bet on Cleveland +4 at home.
Pittsburgh holds a significant advantage in special teams, and they are more likely to win the turnover battle. Despite this, the line is inflated and the Browns have performed best this season in their divisional games, as seen in their upsets against Baltimore and Pittsburgh.
While the Steelers have an elite pass rush, other defensive metrics such as run defense and Joey Porter Jr.’s frequent penalties in the secondary may give Winston an opportunity as a live underdog.
Verdict: Bet Browns +6.5 (-115).
Las Vegas Raiders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)
This will be the third road game in four weeks for the Raiders, who have seen a lot of action on the betting market since initially being listed as 7.5-point underdogs in this game. Despite its loss to Kansas City, Las Vegas outperformed the Chiefs in the box score and now faces a favorable offensive matchup against a Tampa Bay secondary that still has some exploitable weaknesses. Brock Bowers and Jakobi Meyers have proved to be a solid receiving duo and should help the Raiders hit explosives against the Buccaneers defense, which likes to bring pressure but is vulnerable to big plays.
The Raiders defensive line will likely have an advantage in generating quick pressure, which could lead Baker Mayfield to make more mistakes. Despite his strong season, Mayfield has had 18 turnover plays, second only to Kirk Cousins. It might be a good idea to wait and see whether the line moves back to 7 before placing a bet, but I would consider betting it at +6.5 if it doesn’t move.
Verdict: Bet Raiders +6.5, wait for potential +7.
Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals (-3)
Seattle’s defense hit a low point in Week 8, but since getting healthier, it has become one of the league’s best units. It’s had significant improvement since its bye in Week 10, and both Byron Murphy II and Leonard Williams have dominated on the interior. One hallmark of Mike Macdonald’s defense in Baltimore was elite third-down metrics, and that has translated to the Seahawks this year. Seattle is third in EPA per play allowed on third down, and in the four games since the Buffalo loss, the Seahawks have ranked first in EPA per play allowed overall. The offense is only 25th in EPA per play in the same time frame.
The Seahawks have become a pure under team; two non-offensive touchdowns were the only reason their game last week with the Jets went over the total. Seattle had a pick-six on defense and also conceded a touchdown on a kick return. Arizona’s defense is structured to prevent explosive plays, and the Seattle offense has struggled to maintain efficiency since the early part of the season.
Only 22 points were scored in the first meeting between these teams, and a pick-six was the main factor that helped Seattle establish a lead in an otherwise inefficient offensive game.
Over the past four games, the trends are clear for both Seattle’s offense—whose early-down explosiveness numbers are worse than in past seasons—and defense, which may now be a top-five unit in the league.
Verdict: Bet under 44.5 (-110).
Buffalo Bills (-4.5) at Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have started slowly in each of the past two seasons and fought their way back into the playoff race. However, this season’s Rams offense looks significantly different from the one that made it to the playoffs last year. Last season, the Rams went into the bye week at 3-6 and emerged to get seven wins in eight games and secure a wild-card spot. In that time frame, the Rams ranked fourth in EPA per drive, behind only the Cowboys, 49ers, and Packers. While questions remained about the defense and special teams, it was clear that the Rams had an elite offense.
This season, the Rams went into the bye at 1-4 and have managed to improve to 6-6 entering the game against Buffalo. On paper, the situation may seem similar, but upon closer inspection, it’s vastly different. The offense now ranks 11th in EPA per drive and 12th in success rate. It is an above-average unit, but not a standout one.
This limits the Rams’ potential, as evidenced by their narrow wins over New England and New Orleans, as well as their losses to Miami and Philadelphia. Reports have surfaced that Matt Stafford is dealing with an ankle sprain sustained in the game against New Orleans, which could be problematic given the Rams’ offensive line issues. While he is expected to play through it, his performance may be affected.
The market moved even further toward the Bills due to their dominant win in the snow against the 49ers. However, the margin of that victory was a result of situational factors and the 49ers’ injury woes more than a reflection of Buffalo’s strength.
Verdict: Pass.
Chicago Bears at San Francisco 49ers (+3.5)
San Francisco will be without both Jordan Mason and Christian McCaffrey due to injury. The 49ers’ clearest advantage on paper in this matchup is their run offense, which will face the Bears’ struggling run defense. Chicago had no answer for Detroit’s run game on Thanksgiving, but what is the 49ers run offense even capable of now given its injuries? It’s a difficult unit to gauge. The run offense has typically been plug-and-play under head coach Kyle Shanahan in the past, but this group is in a bit of a free fall following consecutive blowout losses to Green Bay and Buffalo on the road.
On one hand, this would appear to be the ideal time to buy low on the 49ers. But now they face a Bears team that gets the classic first-game-with-an-interim-coach bump, as well as extra rest, following the firing of Matt Eberflus and the promotion of Thomas Brown. The 49ers can’t exploit the Bears’ biggest defensive weakness against the run, and Chicago’s offense has looked considerably better since Brown took over as interim offensive coordinator.
In three games against three division rivals, the Bears offense has finished 12th in EPA per dropback. It was 27th in the first 10 weeks of the season. Given that Fred Warner is playing through injury and the 49ers defense has slowly been in decline, this is the spot to chase the 49ers, who could be realizing their season is all but over.
Verdict: Bet Bears +4 (-110).
Sunday Night Football
Los Angeles Chargers at Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5)
There’s been a significant decline in the quality of the Chiefs secondary this season. Since Week 7, the Chiefs have ranked 27th in EPA per dropback. For all of last season, they were fourth in the same metric. Both Bryce Young and Aidan O’Connell were able to exploit the secondary in the past two weeks, and now the Chiefs will face Justin Herbert. The defense was able to bail out the Chiefs offense when it wasn’t performing well last year. However, the Chiefs don’t have that luxury this year, making their entire system more fragile.
The Chargers pass offense is extremely thin on receiving options without Ladd McConkey. They struggled to run the ball without J.K. Dobbins last week, and if they don’t have McConkey, who seems to have a 50 percent chance of playing, then it is unclear where they will find offense. Herbert threw for only 147 yards last week, and McConkey accounted for 117 of those receiving yards.
Until we have more information about McConkey’s status, this is a pass for me.
Verdict: Pass
Monday Night Football
Cincinnati Bengals at Dallas Cowboys (+5.5)
Dallas has been passing the ball way more frequently since Cooper Rush took over as quarterback following Dak Prescott’s injury. The market has noticed this change, as well as the fact that almost every Bengals games this season has been high scoring, and has moved the total up from 47 to 49.5.
Typically, by this point in the season, you would expect a defense to improve and find ways to make stops. Even the Panthers defense has shown improvement over the past month after struggling in October. However, the Bengals defense has not shown any signs of improvement.
It would be risky to lay points on the road with the Bengals, given how ineffective their defense has been against every opponent this year. While the value has been taken out of the over, Dallas’s pass rush could pose a challenge for Joe Burrow, leading me to lean toward Dallas with the 5.5-point spread. For all of the Bengals’ offensive successes, Burrow is prone to taking sacks, and the offensive line is only average.
Verdict: Lean Cowboys +5.5 (-110).
Bets from this article made for Week 14:
Seahawks/Cardinals under 45 (-110)
Bears +4 (-110)
Browns +6.5 (-110)
Raiders +7 (-110)
Eagles second half -5.5 (-120)
Falcons team total under 20.5 (-110)
Packers team total over 23.5 (-118 at DraftKings)