Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the season, you’ll get my takes on the biggest stories in the league, with an eye on what’s to come. This week, we’ll look at why the Chiefs are in an ideal spot despite not playing particularly well, I’ll explain why the Vikings shouldn’t make any rash financial decisions when it comes to Sam Darnold, and we’ll break down the biggest questions about the playoff races.
Three-peat? The Chiefs are (somehow) right where they need to be.
I know—I can’t believe it either. Like many of you, I’ve been waiting for the close calls to catch up to them. But guess what? The Chiefs were the biggest winners in the NFL in Week 14. They beat the Chargers on a last-second field goal, and the Bills lost to the Rams. That means Kansas City has a two-game lead for the 1-seed in the AFC. As long as they don’t lose two of their final four games (at Cleveland, home vs. the Texans, at Pittsburgh, at Denver), the Chiefs will get a bye. Most likely, the road to the Super Bowl in the AFC will go through Arrowhead. If you had told Andy Reid back in August that this is where the Chiefs would be heading into the final month of the regular season, he probably would have made a joke about sweet-and-sour pork and then gladly signed on the dotted line.
Don’t mistake what I’m saying here. The Chiefs are not fine. They scored just 19 points against the Chargers. Patrick Mahomes got hit 13 times. They have issues at offensive tackle and wide receiver and cornerback. The way they’ve gotten to a 12-1 record is unprecedented. Since 2000, there have been 15 teams with at least 12 wins through the first 14 weeks of the season. Fourteen of those teams had at least a plus-100 point differential at this point in the season. The 15th is the 2024 Chiefs, who aren’t even close, at plus-56. The Chiefs are 10-0 in games decided by seven or fewer points. Since 2000, no team has had a better record in one-score games through 14 weeks. Again, this is not normal.
But the point is that the Chiefs have bought themselves some time to figure things out. They have obvious flaws, and the 12-1 record is a little fluky. But they also have a healthy Mahomes and will likely need to win just two home games to get to the Super Bowl. There are no guarantees, but Kansas City couldn’t have asked to be in a better spot.
Sean McVay helped the Rams win by not taking the points.
McVay’s résumé speaks for itself. He’s been a head coach for eight years, and in that time, he’s had only one losing season, has been to the Super Bowl twice, and has hoisted the Lombardi. He has the “figure it out” gene as an offensive schemer and play caller. When defenses figure one thing out, he has a plan B. When that plan stops working, he has a plan C. It’s been incredibly impressive to watch over the course of his career. But McVay has long had an annoying flaw: game management—especially his conservative in-game decision-making. It’s like he sometimes doesn’t lean into the things that he’s really good at.
Which is why a decision McVay made during the Rams’ win over the Bills on Sunday was so encouraging. Los Angeles faced a fourth-and-5 from the Buffalo 35 with 3:53 left, with the Rams leading 38-35. As we’ve discussed in this space before, it’s a mistake to settle for a field goal and extend a three-point lead to six late in games. You should be aggressive in that spot. Why? If you go for it and get it, great. You will run time off the clock and at least put yourself in a position to score a touchdown that would make it a two-possession game. And if you don’t pick up that fourth down, it’s not the end of the world. Your opponent is still down three and will be more incentivized to play for the field goal. If they tie it, you still get a chance to win—either in regulation or in overtime. If you don’t go for it and kick the field goal, the opponent has only one focus: scoring a touchdown. They’ll be more aggressive, and they get to use all four downs because when they’re down six, a field goal does them no good. In Week 13, we saw Cardinals coach Jonathan Gannon make the mistake of going from a three-point lead to a six-point lead, which burned him in the team’s loss to the Vikings.
Maybe it was because Buffalo’s Josh Allen was on the other sideline. Maybe it was because McVay didn’t trust his kicker. Regardless, McVay made the aggressive and analytically sound decision in a high-leverage spot, something he hasn’t always done during his career. After McVay kept the offense on the field, Matthew Stafford did a terrific job of finding Tutu Atwell in the middle of the field for an 11-yard gain, and the Rams scored a touchdown four plays later. Was that one decision the main reason the Rams upset the Bills? Of course not. Stafford was nearly flawless. Puka Nacua had one of the best individual performances for a wide receiver this season. And the Rams scored a touchdown on a punt block. But the final score was 44-42. Their margin for error was slim. Had McVay been risk averse in that spot, who knows how that game would’ve ended? Instead, he played to win, and now the Rams’ playoff hopes are still very much alive.
The 49ers’ biggest issue? Bad luck.
This is not fun to talk about. In the content game, we’re supposed to have brilliant analysis based on what league sources tell us or what the film reveals or what the fancy numbers say. There is always supposed to be a reasonable explanation to explain why a team or a player is good or bad. The only problem? Sometimes that’s not the case. Sometimes a team fails to meet expectations because it gets a little unlucky. That’s largely the case for the 2024 San Francisco 49ers.
The 49ers are 6-7 and have just a 3 percent chance to make the playoffs. Even if they beat the Rams on Thursday night, that only goes up to 6 percent. It’s possible that something wild happens in the final month of the season, but the most likely outcome is that they’ll be sitting at home when the playoffs start. And when that becomes official, you’ll hear all kinds of theories for why their season was a failure. Let’s go ahead and run through a few of them:
Kyle Shanahan doesn’t have his fastball.
In a “down” season, the 49ers rank eighth in offensive DVOA. They had Christian McCaffrey on the field for just four games. They had Brandon Aiyuk for seven games. Left tackle Trent Williams has missed three games. Brock Purdy missed one. And they played a game in the snow in Buffalo. Still, the 49ers are in the top quartile of the NFL in offensive efficiency. Sunday’s win against the Bears was a reminder that Shanahan does in fact still have his fastball. The 49ers went up and down the field in their 38-13 win. They produced explosive play after explosive play and probably could have scored 50 if they needed to. Bottom line: Shanahan’s scheme and play calling are not the problem here.
Brock Purdy got exposed without McCaffrey.
The 49ers rank fifth in passing DVOA this season. Purdy is fifth in expected points added (EPA) per pass play and sixth in success rate. Only five quarterbacks have attempted tight-window throws at a higher rate than Purdy. The 49ers are using play-action at a rate that is below league average. And Purdy’s average pass has traveled 8.9 yards downfield—the sixth-highest distance of any quarterback. In other words, Purdy had less help around him—both with the supporting cast and the scheme—than usual, and he still has quarterbacked a top-five passing game.
The defensive coordinator change has been a disaster.
I’m not going to tell you that the defense has been great, but they are sixth in DVOA. There’s a reasonable argument that some of the bad-looking counting stats are partially a result of facing a difficult schedule of opposing offenses. Their best pass rusher, Nick Bosa, has missed three games. And their best corner, Charvarius Ward, has missed four.
Alright, so why then are they 6-7? One, they’ve had bad injury luck. I just went over a bunch of the players who have missed time. Two, they are 2-4 in one-score games. And three, only the Titans have been worse on special teams. If you play this season out a million times, the 49ers are a playoff team in most of them. They are seventh in overall DVOA. Every other team in the top 10 would be in the playoffs if the season ended today. Don’t get me wrong. The 49ers face big questions going forward about the state of their roster and the direction of their franchise. But when they make those decisions, they should do so knowing there’s plenty of analytical evidence to suggest that their final record in 2024 is not going to perfectly reflect the quality of team they were this season.
Pay Sam Darnold? Vikings can’t make the Daniel Jones mistake.
On Sunday morning, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that the Minnesota Vikings and quarterback Sam Darnold had not engaged in any discussions about a long-term deal. A few hours later, Darnold completed 22-of-28 passes for 347 yards and five touchdowns in a 42-21 win over the Falcons. The Vikings are 11-2 and by any metric have been one of the best teams in the NFL this season. So, should they be looking to sign Darnold long term, given how well this season has gone?
First, we must look at how the Vikings have gotten to 11-2. The defense isn’t performing as well lately as it did earlier in the season, but it’s still ranked first in DVOA. The offense, meanwhile, is 14th. You don’t have to look any further to identify which side of the ball is the strength of this team. We can also drill down on Darnold’s individual performance. He is 11th in success rate and 12th in EPA per pass play.
I’ll be honest. I didn’t think there was any way that Darnold was going to be able to give the Vikings even competent quarterback play this year, let alone above-average quarterback play. I was wrong. Head coach Kevin O’Connell has done a masterful job of scheming up explosive plays, Darnold has an excellent supporting cast, and he’s played the best football of his career by far. Before this season, Darnold performed like one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL over a six-year span. Is it more likely that Darnold has suddenly transformed into a different guy, or that the Vikings have a situation that would be conducive for a lot of quarterbacks to thrive? While Darnold has clearly improved, I still think it’s the latter. And I bet that internally, the Vikings think so too.
In some ways, this situation has similarities to what we saw with the Giants and Daniel Jones a couple years ago. Jones was a bad starter for three seasons, performed well in 2022, and then the team signed him to a long-term deal. How’d that work out?
What makes this situation different is that the Vikings have already invested in their quarterback of the future. They drafted J.J. McCarthy at no. 10 in the 2024 draft. Presumably, they believe that McCarthy (when he gets healthy) can give them the same level of play that Darnold has given them this season. There’s no guarantee they’ll be right about that, but it’s the calculation that they’ve made, and McCarthy will be entering the second year of his rookie deal.
Now, there’s still time to gather more information. Maybe Darnold continues to improve and plays at an elite level and leads the Vikings to the Super Bowl. Obviously, they would need to reconsider their plan at that point. But right now? There’s no need. Play the season out, and stay clear-eyed about the plan and what’s actually leading to the team’s success. The most likely scenario is that the Vikings thank Darnold for a fun season and move on to McCarthy in 2025.
There are five lingering playoff questions that need answers.
Perhaps you are getting overwhelmed by what matters and what doesn’t as we enter the final four weeks of the regular season. Luckily, I am here to help with a little cheat sheet. All percentages are courtesy of The New York Times’ playoff simulator.
1. Who is winning the NFC South?
The Bucs (7-6) are the favorites. They’ve won three in a row, have the third-easiest remaining schedule, and have a 65-percent chance of finishing in first place. But it’s far from over. The Falcons (6-7) have the easiest remaining schedule and own the tiebreaker over the Bucs on account of two head-to-head wins. They have a 35-percent chance of winning the division. The second-place finisher is most likely out of the playoffs, although there is a small chance they could grab a wild-card spot.
2. Who is winning the NFC West?
This one has taken a turn! The Seahawks are currently in first place at 8-5. The Rams are second at 7-6. The Cardinals and 49ers are both 6-7. The Seahawks are the favorites at 58 percent, but they have the 10th-hardest schedule, with games against the Packers, Vikings, Bears, and Rams remaining. The Rams have a 35-percent chance to win the division, and they’ve got the 15th-hardest remaining schedule. The Cardinals have dropped to 5 percent, and the 49ers are at 2 percent to defend their division title. It feels like there’s a pretty good chance this could come down to the Week 18 matchup between the Seahawks and Rams.
3. Who is the third wild-card team in the NFC?
Assuming the Lions (12-1) finish in first place in the NFC North, we’re almost certainly looking at the Vikings (11-2) and Packers (9-4) as two of the NFC wild-card teams. That leaves just one spot up for grabs. If the season ended today, it’d go to the Commanders (8-5). They are one game up on the Rams and two games up on the Falcons, Cardinals, and 49ers. Washington’s remaining schedule strength ranks 22nd in terms of difficulty. They have a 92-percent chance of getting in. But a loss to the Saints in Week 15 would make things interesting.
4. Who is winning the AFC North?
The Steelers (10-3) just keep on winning, and have built a two-game lead on the Ravens (8-5). Pittsburgh has a 70-percent chance of finishing in first place, while the Ravens are at 30 percent. But this one could still get flipped. The Steelers have the hardest remaining schedule in the NFL: at Philadelphia, at Baltimore, home vs. the Chiefs, home vs. the Bengals. That’s three legit Super Bowl contenders in a row, including two on the road. The Ravens’ remaining schedule, meanwhile, ranks 23rd in terms of difficulty. There will be a lot riding on that Week 16 game between these two teams in Baltimore.
5. Who will get the last two wild-card spots in the AFC?
Both the Steelers and Ravens have more than a 98-percent chance of making the playoffs. Simply put: Whichever team doesn’t win the division is almost certainly getting in as a wild card. That leaves two open spots. Right now, the Chargers (8-5) and Broncos (8-5) would get in. The Chargers have an 88-percent chance of staying there and face the sixth-easiest remaining schedule. The Broncos are at 71 percent and face the 11th-hardest schedule. The two teams lurking are the Colts (29 percent) and Dolphins (17 percent). Indianapolis has the second-easiest remaining schedule. They have a high-stakes game in Week 15 at Denver. If the Colts can win that game, their chances of getting in go up to 65 percent. If they lose, their chances drop all the way down to 9 percent. And finally, the Dolphins’ remaining schedule ranks 13th in difficulty. But they still mostly control their fate. If the Dolphins can win out (a big if!), they would have a 91 percent chance of getting in. In other words, they have to earn it, but they also don’t need a lot of help.
There you go. Now you’re all caught up! Check back next week when we once again assess the chaos.
