Welcome to NFL Under Review, a weekly column where I will sound off on misguided narratives, inexplicable coaching decisions, and other topics around the NFL. Each Tuesday throughout the season, you’ll get my takes on the biggest stories in the league, with an eye on what’s to come. This week, we’re zeroing in on the NFC playoff picture after the Week 15 games and looking at one big question facing each team currently in the top seven spots in that conference. Next week, we’ll look at the AFC.
Detroit Lions: Are the injuries too much to overcome?
There’s an alternate universe in which I’m telling you to be encouraged after the Lions’ loss to the Bills. That it was a narrative buster, because there was this idea that the Lions couldn’t play from behind, or that if they couldn’t run the ball, well, their offense wouldn’t work. But the Lions scored touchdowns on their final four drives against the Bills on Sunday. They had 30 first downs and 521 yards. We’re talking about an offensive performance that ranked in the 96th percentile this season in terms of expected points added per drive. If there were any questions about the Lions offense (and there shouldn’t have been many), they were answered on Sunday.
Of course, that’s not likely the tone of Lions fans’ group chats this week. That loss to the Bills was about as costly as a contending team can have this time of year. Detroit lost defensive tackle Alim McNeill and running back David Montgomery for the season, and cornerback Carlton Davis III is out indefinitely. I still have a lot of faith in the Lions offense. Its line is intact. Quarterback Jared Goff has played at a high level. Ben Johnson is still calling the plays. And while they’ll miss Montgomery, the Lions still have a quality back in Jahmyr Gibbs, who’ll just have to carry more of the load. Offensive efficiency is king, and the Lions still have the pieces in place to produce at an elite level.
The question is whether the defense can find enough answers. This was already a banged-up unit, and at some point, there’s just no scheme or game plan that can make up for a depleted roster.
So where do I actually stand with this team? I’m not giving up on Detroit. We’ve seen a lot of Super Bowl teams overcome tough injury situations, and they have the right makeup to face this sort of adversity. This is part of the allure of Dan Campbell. He won’t make excuses, and the Lions will have their backups prepared. The offense will still be a problem for opponents, and they’ll win the special teams battle most weeks. The key for Detroit? Simply take care of business down the stretch. Right now, they have a 53 percent chance of earning a first-round bye, according to the New York Times’ playoff simulator. The Lions have the 10th-hardest remaining schedule, with games at the Bears, at the 49ers, and home against the Vikings. If they can secure that first-round bye and home-field advantage, I think they’ll still be the NFC favorites and will have a good chance of getting to New Orleans. But if they get jumped for the top spot in the next three weeks, this could quickly turn into a “what if?” season for the Lions.
Philadelphia Eagles: Is the passing game fixed?
I don’t remember a team in recent memory that flipped between “potentially dysfunctional” and “definite Super Bowl contender” as quickly or as often as the 2024 Eagles. A quick timeline of the past two weeks:
December 1: The Eagles beat the Ravens in Baltimore for their eighth straight victory and look like one of the NFL’s best teams.
December 8: The Eagles beat the Panthers in an ugly game where Jalen Hurts plays poorly and the offense produces just 83 net passing yards. After the game, star wide receiver A.J. Brown explains that “passing” is the area of the offense that needs to be fixed.
December 9: Veteran defensive end Brandon Graham goes on local radio and says Hurts and Brown were friends before, but things have changed. Graham would go on to apologize.
December 11: Brown says that Graham “misspoke,” and Hurts and Brown attempt to defuse the situation, saying they are good.
December 15: Hurts completes 25 of 32 passes for 290 yards and two touchdowns, and Brown catches eight passes for 110 yards in a convincing win against the Steelers. The duo performs a touchdown celebration inspired by Kid ’n Play. The Eagles tie the Lions for the best record in the NFC, at 12-2.
THAT ALL HAPPENED IN THE SPAN OF TWO WEEKS!
The truth is that the Eagles passing game has been an issue throughout this season, and it’s hard to get to the Super Bowl without being efficient through the air. Among the 20 teams to make the conference championship game in the past five seasons, 18 of them (90 percent) have had a passing offense that ranked in the top quartile (DVOA). The Eagles currently rank 15th, but Sunday’s game against Pittsburgh was a big step in the right direction. Against the best defense he’ll face this year, Hurts found a rhythm early, completing 12 of his first 13 passes for 146 yards. Overall, it was an 85th-percentile game in terms of dropback success rate.
Now the question is whether the Eagles can repeat that type of performance down the stretch and in the playoffs. The defense is Super Bowl caliber. The offensive line is elite. And Saquon Barkley is Saquon Barkley. But ultimately, the efficiency of the passing game will determine this team’s ceiling.
The Eagles were the biggest winners in the NFL on Sunday. With their win and the Lions’ loss, the Eagles now have a 40 percent chance of landing the top seed in the NFC. And they have the NFL’s fifth-easiest remaining schedule: at Washington, home vs. the Cowboys, and home vs. the Giants. If the Eagles can jump the Lions and get the bye and home-field advantage, they’ll become the favorites in the NFC.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Are we sleeping on them as a disruptor?
Consider the résumé. The Bucs have legitimate wins over both the Lions and the Eagles. The rest of the NFL is 2-24 against those two teams. If we look at every team’s performance against opponents that are currently playoff teams, the Bucs have a plus-26 point differential. Only the Ravens and the Eagles are better. The Bucs have won four in a row, and on Sunday, they hung 506 yards on a Chargers defense that has been playing well for much of the season.
Listen, I’m not totally sure what to make of it. But every offseason, when I try to identify a surprise team that could make a playoff run, I look for a profile featuring an efficient offense and mediocre defense. And guess what? The Bucs fit the description. They are seventh in offensive DVOA—ahead of teams like the Rams, Eagles, Chiefs, and Vikings. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen has put together impressive game plans against standout defensive coordinators like the Eagles’ Vic Fangio and the Chargers’ Jesse Minter. I’ve seen enough from this offense to believe that it will be tough to shut down if it doesn’t turn the ball over. And defensively, the Bucs rank 17th in efficiency. Not dominant, but certainly passable.
At 8-6, the Bucs currently have an 86 percent chance to win the NFC South. They have the NFL’s second-easiest remaining schedule: at Dallas, home vs. the Panthers, and home vs. the Saints. I don’t think this team is good enough to get to the Super Bowl, and I suspect many will consider it an afterthought once the playoffs roll around. Tampa’s résumé suggests that might be a mistake.
Los Angeles Rams: Can they hold off the Seahawks (and others!)?
Week 15 couldn’t have gone much better for the Rams. They won an ugly game against the 49ers on Thursday night, got to enjoy a mini-bye, and then watched the Seahawks get smoked by the Packers on Sunday night. That moved the Rams (8-6) into first place in the NFC West—for now. I tend to view the Rams as an any given Sunday team, but I don’t think they’re actually an every given Sunday team. What the *&^% am I talking about? Glad you asked. On any given Sunday, their offense can go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the NFL. We saw that a couple of weeks ago when they beat the Bills. I just don’t think the Rams can consistently rise to that level for an extended period of time—or at least they haven’t yet shown us that they can.
Having said that, the Rams have to love where they’re at. They now have a 68 percent chance to win the division. The Seahawks (24 percent) and Cardinals (8 percent) make up the remaining 32 percent. Here’s what the next three weeks look like for each team:
Rams: They have the 10th-easiest remaining schedule: at the Jets, home vs. the Cardinals, home vs. the Seahawks.
Seahawks (8-6): They have the 11th-hardest remaining schedule: home vs. the Vikings, at Chicago, at the Rams.
Cardinals (7-7): They have the 12th-easiest remaining schedule: at the Panthers, at the Rams, home vs. the 49ers.
As of this writing, it’s unclear whether Seahawks quarterback Geno Smith will miss any time after injuring his knee Sunday night. So where does that leave us? The Rams have the best offense. The Seahawks have the best defense. And the Cardinals might have the best overall team. I still think there’s a good chance that this thing will come down to Seahawks-Rams in L.A. in Week 18.
Minnesota Vikings: Can Sam Darnold actually lead them to a Super Bowl?
I don’t know, OK?! For most of the season, I’ve viewed the Vikings as a cute little story. Brian Flores doing more with less and producing one of the NFL’s best defenses. Kevin O’Connell dialing up explosive play after explosive play and finding ways to get Darnold to play the best football of his career. It’s been really, really impressive. But there’s a difference between a fun, overachieving team and an actual contender. Maybe this team has a higher ceiling than I have previously given it credit for?
After Monday night’s win against the Bears, the Vikings are 12-2, and one of those losses was by two points to the Lions. This has been a consistently competitive group that is always prepared to play, and it feels like they have a coaching advantage on both sides of the ball every single week. The defense is going to be tough to game plan for, and so is Justin Jefferson. There is a legit “Why not us?” case for the Vikings in an NFC that looks pretty wide open.
OK, so what’s my hang-up? C’mon. Do I really have to say it? Oh, fine. I still don’t fully trust Darnold in a big spot! I know he’s played well this year. I know he’s talented. I know he has looked decisive and comfortable in O’Connell’s offense. But is he really going to be able to win three straight road games in January? Because that’s probably what it’s going to take if the Vikings enter the playoffs as a wild-card team. If the circumstances were different and the Vikings were the 1-seed (still possible, but unlikely), I’d be able to talk myself into it. But the path just looks too daunting, and Darnold is still unconvincing. I can’t get there.
I guess I’ve answered my own question. I’m back to where I started: fun team, great season, but I don’t think they can pull it off. If I’m wrong, I’ll print this column on a t-shirt and wear it around New Orleans during Super Bowl week.
Green Bay Packers: Can they count on their pass rush?
I don’t have any questions about the Packers offense. Matt LaFleur is one of the best schemers, designers, and play callers in the NFL. The Packers are balanced and can win different types of games. They rank third in offensive DVOA—third in passing and fifth in rushing. It’s always possible that quarterback Jordan Love will get a bit too ambitious in a big spot and turn the ball over, but I trust this group to move the ball and score points against anyone. That’s why I’ve had the Packers as legit Super Bowl contenders all season long.
The question is on the other side of the ball. For much of the season, I’ve viewed the Packers pass rush as an underachieving unit. Per Next Gen Stats, its pressure rate of 30.5 percent ranks 28th in the NFL. But during Sunday night’s win over the Seahawks, that group came alive, producing seven sacks and 12 quarterback hits. Were they just beating up on a bad Seattle offensive line? Maybe. But the thing is, the Packers have talent. So it’s also possible that they’re just figuring things out under new coordinator Jeff Hafley at the perfect time. Overall, the Packers have moved all the way up to eighth in defensive DVOA. They join the Bills, Lions, and Eagles as the only teams that currently have an offense and defense ranked in the top 10.
For the Packers, the rest of the season is about accomplishing three things. One, they want to make sure they finish with the 5- or 6-seed and avoid the Lions or Eagles in the first round. Two, like everyone else, they want to avoid catastrophic injuries. And three, it would be nice to see the pass rush build on that Week 15 performance. Green Bay’s path to the Super Bowl very well could include having to win three games on the road. That won’t be easy, but they’re good enough to have a legitimate chance of coming out of the NFC.
Washington Commanders: How far can the Jayden Daniels magic take them?
Daniels has been one of the best new characters of the 2024 season. He had the electric performance on Monday Night Football in Week 3 against the Bengals and the game-winning Hail Mary in Week 8 against the Bears. In some ways, it feels like Daniels’s performance isn’t getting enough attention. In the last 10 seasons, the only rookie (among the 31 who played enough to qualify) who produced a better season based on EPA per pass play and dropback success rate was Dak Prescott in 2016. Statistically, this performance by Daniels has been even better than what we saw from C.J. Stroud last season. Now the question is: Does Daniels have more magic left for the playoffs, or are the Commanders destined to be one-and-done?
Barring a complete meltdown in the final three weeks, they’re going to get into the postseason (90 percent chance going into Week 16). But the truth is that it’s hard to know just how dangerous the Commanders can be because they haven’t really been battle tested. Washington has faced the NFL’s easiest schedule, and they are 0-4 against opponents that would be in the playoffs if the season ended right now.
Having said that, there are reasons to be bullish. The Commanders have been mostly competitive against good teams, and they rank fifth in offensive DVOA. The defense is an obvious question, but against most opponents, the Commanders are going to be able to move the ball. Any way you slice it, this season has already been a success. They have exceeded expectations, and more importantly, they’ve found their franchise quarterback. It’s possible that the Commanders get outclassed and have a quick and uneventful playoff exit, but I don’t think anyone would be surprised if Daniels has a moment or two in January.
