Welcome to the festive period of the NFL schedule, when it feels like there are games on almost every day of the week. In Week 16, we have seven different windows of professional football to watch, including the usual five (Thursday, three on Sunday, and Monday), plus the Saturday doubleheader.
That’s just the appetizer for the main course, Week 17, which features eight island games as part of a holiday season football bonanza. We’ll worry about that next week.
For now, Week 16 may not be as exciting on paper as Week 15 was, but these are often the kinds of weeks that provide the most surprising drama and unexpected intrigue. Three divisions have been clinched (by Houston, Buffalo, and Kansas City), and two more could be clinched this week (by Pittsburgh and Philadelphia).
I’ve previewed all 16 games in Week 16, starting with Thursday Night Football, and I’ve included some bets I’ve already made at the bottom. All lines in the article are from FanDuel as of Wednesday morning.
Thursday Night Football
Denver Broncos at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
The Denver Broncos won another game and covered the spread in dramatic fashion last week, despite producing only 193 total yards of offense on 3.2 yards per play. For three straight weeks, I’ve bet money against the Broncos, and each time they’ve found increasingly absurd ways to beat me. I could understand when the Raiders failed to convert a red zone opportunity from the 1-yard line. I wasn’t even shocked when Browns QB Jameis Winston threw two interceptions—including a pick-six—in the final two minutes of that Monday night classic. But Denver’s win on Sunday borders on the realm of fantasy. Sure, the Colts occasionally make mistakes, and Anthony Richardson is volatile, but Jonathan Taylor’s fumble while running untouched into the end zone and Adonai Mitchell’s lateral that Denver caught and returned for a touchdown left me in disbelief.
The first meeting between the Broncos and Chargers ended with a 23-16 win for L.A., and it took an unsustainably good late-down Chargers offense and late-game scoring by the Broncos to even reach 39 points. The Chargers had raced out to a 23-0 lead thanks to their incredible third-down efficiency, and Denver scored on its final three possessions against a soft Chargers defense.
Justin Herbert showed up on the injury report last week, and he didn’t appear to be close to 100 percent mobility in the loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. It was the first game all season in which he didn’t have a rushing attempt. He was listed as a limited participant in Tuesday practice due to a left ankle injury.
At their core, these are two limited offenses. It’s a divisional rematch, and I lean toward betting the under given that divisional rematches tend to be lower scoring. I won’t bet against the Broncos again this week—although I remain highly skeptical about them going forward. Instead, I’ll bet the under at 42 or better.
Verdict: Bet under 42.5 points (-115).
Saturday Matchups
Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5) at Houston Texans
The market for this game flipped on Tuesday once it was announced that Patrick Mahomes was a full participant in practice. It’s possible that the Chiefs are doing a head fake, but the market now thinks that Mahomes will suit up for this key clash between two division champions. The Chiefs need two wins in their final three games to clinch the no. 1 seed in the AFC playoffs.
Houston clinched the AFC South with a 20-12 win against Miami, but nothing from that game should provide optimism about the Texans offense going forward. They had one of the ugliest box scores by a winning team all season long. Houston had 10 full possessions and managed only 12 first downs. It averaged 3.6 yards per play and finished the game with 181 total yards. This was an ideal spot for the Texans since they had extra prep time and rest off the bye, and that was the best they could muster. (Keep in mind that the Dolphins allowed 402 yards at home against the Jets just a week ago).
DeMeco Ryans’s defense had a stellar plan to shut down and turn over the Miami offense, but Houston is going nowhere with its lack of offensive production.
Assuming that Mahomes is good to practice on Wednesday, I’ll be betting on the Chiefs on the moneyline at -150 or better. The Texans have the lowest success rate in the NFL this year.
Verdict: Bet Chiefs moneyline (-150 or better).
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens (-6)
You’ll probably hear a lot about Lamar Jackson’s stats against the Steelers defense this week. They haven’t been pretty. The Ravens are 1-4 in Jackson’s starts against Pittsburgh, and he’s had five touchdowns versus eight interceptions. Some receiver drops have contributed to Jackson’s numbers, but he hasn’t been nearly as explosive or efficient against the Ravens’ biggest rival.
Underdogs of three or more points are 19-2-3 against the spread since Mike Tomlin and John Harbaugh have been their teams’ respective coaches. Pittsburgh is a sizable underdog here, and because it’s the ultimate coin flip rivalry, I won’t back the Ravens here, despite my skepticism about Pittsburgh’s offense.
Since Russell Wilson became Pittsburgh’s quarterback in Week 7, the Steelers have ranked 29th in offensive success rate. You have to be able to hit some explosives to win, and Pittsburgh is just 19th in explosive play rate. Both George Pickens and T.J. Watt missed practice on Tuesday, and they are the Steelers’ most explosive players on both sides of the ball.
Tomlin seemed optimistic about Watt’s chances of playing, but I’ll have to wait for more injury news on those two players before considering a bet on Pittsburgh. If Pickens is out, this total shouldn’t be above 44.
Verdict: Lean under 44.5 (-110).
Sunday Matchups
New York Giants at Atlanta Falcons (-8.5)
The line shifted from Falcons -10 to Falcons -8.5 after Atlanta announced it would be starting Michael Penix Jr. in place of Kirk Cousins. I always liked Penix when he was in college and have a clear bias for him, but it’s hard to adequately gauge how he’ll perform in his first start. It’s a lot of uncertainty for a rookie, especially when you’re favored by more than a touchdown—even though a home game indoors against the Giants is a good matchup for an NFL debut.
Atlanta’s offense struggled in its recent game against Las Vegas. Cousins has had the most turnover-worthy plays in the NFL this year, and the red zone offense has been the worst in the NFL by expected points added per play since Week 10. Starting Penix was a move Atlanta had to make if it wanted to make a playoff push.
This game is a pass for me now.
Verdict: Pass.
Detroit Lions (-6.5) at Chicago Bears
Another week, another scoreless first half for the Bears. It looked as though Chicago might score on its opening drive against Minnesota on Monday, until the Vikings sacked Caleb Williams. The defense continues to allow a lot of explosive plays, and the offense has produced only 163 total yards in the first half of the past three games combined. That is the worst in the league by 40 yards, and six other teams have played only two games in the last three weeks.
These two teams played on Thanksgiving, and the Lions closed as a 9.5-point favorite. A simple way to handicap this matchup is to ask yourself how your perception of both teams has changed since, as the market adjustment on Sunday’s game is roughly the same as a simple home field advantage flip.
You’d have to downgrade both teams based on the past three weeks. Detroit’s defense is hemorrhaging players, and as a result, the Eagles are now the favorite to win the NFC instead of the Lions, according to FanDuel as of Wednesday morning. Detroit has lost key players at all three levels of the defense due to significant injuries, but I don’t know whether the Bears can take advantage given how inefficient their offense has been.
Three big things to consider:
1. There’s a public narrative developing about the falloff of the Detroit defense. Many of the Lions’ defensive issues in the past two weeks cropped up because they were playing two highly efficient and explosive offenses in Green Bay and Buffalo. Chicago is not that.
2. The Lions have had consistent issues against quarterbacks who can scramble because of their aggressive man scheme, so I’ll be targeting Williams’s rushing props when those markets open.
3. This is only the third outdoor game the Lions have played all season, and temperatures are expected to be 30 degrees with 10-15 mph winds on Sunday.
Verdict: Target Caleb Williams rushing props and Lions first half -3.5.
Cleveland Browns at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5)
Don’t cry because it’s over. Smile because it happened. That’s how I feel about the Jameis Winston era in Cleveland. He provided some entertaining highs and also some stunning lows throughout his time as the Cleveland starter. I have zero doubt that he’s a better quarterback right now than Dorian Thompson-Robinson, so going to DTR is a clear downgrade for the Cleveland offense.
There are 90 quarterbacks who have played at least 50 snaps since 2022. DTR is 87th out of 90 in EPA plus completion percentage over expected. Joe Burrow is 11th. Browns running back Nick Chubb is hurt, Cleveland’s defense gives up explosive plays galore, and Cincinnati is still clinging to its playoff hopes. If the Bengals win out, they’re in the mix to make the playoffs, at 9-8.
We already saw DTR against the Bengals this season—he threw two picks and had 82 yards on 24 attempts when he played in relief of an injured Deshaun Watson. Cincinnati rolls at home.
Verdict: Bet Bengals -7.5 (-110).
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3.5)
It’s hard to gauge the mindset of the Colts following their collapse in Denver on Sunday, which probably knocked them out of playoff contention. The Colts can still make the playoffs if they win out against the Titans, Giants, and Jaguars and get help from the Chargers or Broncos, but Sunday’s loss was the kind of game that makes you question the entire operation in Indianapolis. After a game like that, you never quite look at the coaching staff and front office the same way ever again.
The Colts should be able to run the ball effectively, as the return of multiple starters on the offensive line did help them find rushing success consistently in Denver. The Colts defense has also quietly rounded into a really solid unit in the second half of the season. That should be enough to get them over the line against a Tennessee team that is playing quarterback roulette, but the Colts are too volatile for me to lay more than a field goal on them. Mason Rudolph will start for the Titans, and he’s been better than Will Levis this season by most efficiency metrics.
Anthony Richardson still isn’t a consistent or reliable enough passer, and the Colts have been in close games that go down to the wire almost every week. I’ll pass here.
Verdict: Pass.
Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at New York Jets
The late-season Aaron Rodgers renaissance narratives are here. Just when we all should have stopped talking about him (probably forever) following a dismal performance against the Seahawks, Rodgers posted by far his two best games of the season by yards per attempt in excellent showings against the Dolphins and the Jaguars. The Jets won and covered the game against the Jaguars, the first time they’d accomplished that since Halloween—yet the market has moved against them here.
We’re one upset win away from the Rodgers-is-back narrative fully cementing itself into the NFL discourse. This could be a spot where the Rams could come out flat against an inferior opponent. The Rams have had two massive wins in a row as underdogs against the Bills and the 49ers to claim the top spot in the division. They have two critical divisional games on deck to finish the season. But first, they have to travel across the country to face a dead Jets team.
It’s not that different from last year, when the Rams barely squeaked past the Giants by a field goal in December. The Rams had just won the previous Thursday night, they had the 49ers on deck, and a loss would have put their playoff lives in peril. Los Angeles won that game 26-25, and I expect the Rams to get a real scare in this game, too.
Verdict: Lean Jets +3.5 (-110).
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) at Washington Commanders
The Eagles’ 21-play series to drain the final 10 minutes of the clock against the Steelers on Sunday was unquestionably the coolest drive of the entire NFL season. Philadelphia’s ability to suffocate the life out of a football game was highly underrated in 2022 and has continued to be a key part of its 2024 winning streak.
Philadelphia dominated the play count and time of possession in these two teams’ first meeting, beginning to wear down Washington in the second half. The Eagles managed only six points through the first three quarters of the game but broke it open with big run plays in the fourth, outscoring Washington 20-8 in the final quarter.
Jayden Daniels wasn’t fully healthy during that game and was in the midst of a poor stretch of play that coincided with a rib injury. He appeared much healthier last week, coming off the Commanders’ bye week.
Washington remains an extremely methodical offensive team. Both of these offenses prefer ball control and long possessions.
The Eagles continue to struggle offensively early in games, but this is a classic matchup where the balance should shift further in favor of Philly as the game progresses.
Verdict: Bet Eagles second half -1.5 (+100).
Arizona Cardinals (-4) at Carolina Panthers
Carolina’s streak of five consecutive covers came to an end last week in a 30-14 loss to Dallas. Looking back, perhaps the fact that Carolina was favored for the first time in two seasons was a sign that we had hit the peak of the market on the Panthers. Bryce Young had an excellent opening drive before his fumble, and things went downhill for him from there.
It’s Week 16, and I still have not bet on or against the Cardinals in any game this season. They are the Goldilocks team of 2024-25. Not quite good enough to compete for the division title—two losses to Seattle have left them on the outside looking in—but competitive enough to exceed preseason expectations. An average 7-7 football team.
Arizona’s offense is tough to stop when Drew Petzing’s rushing attack is effective, and this matchup is ideal for the Cardinals considering how porous the Carolina run defense is. However, both defenses excel at preventing explosive plays. The offenses will have to be methodical in moving the ball down the field. As a result, the under 47 is the only bet I would consider for this game.
Verdict: Lean under 47 or better.
Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) at Seattle Seahawks
Geno Smith’s status remains uncertain as of Wednesday morning, but based on this line, the betting markets certainly think that he is more likely than not to play. Betting markets have priced Green Bay and Minnesota at similar levels for most of the season, and the Packers closed -3 in Seattle on Sunday night. The Seahawks defense had a disappointing performance, allowing 20 points in the first half as they struggled to contain Green Bay’s rushing offense.
Mike Macdonald’s halftime adjustments have helped his defenses excel in recent seasons. Seattle has allowed 31 points in the second halves of the past five games combined.
I don’t expect Seattle to have a ton of offensive success, given the state of its offensive line and the aggressively blitzing Brian Flores defense. The Seahawks offense also hasn’t been nearly as explosive lately because of DK Metcalf’s limited numbers. Add in the fact that Smith is potentially not 100 percent, and this has all the makings of an under, and especially a second-half under.
Rain is also in the forecast, so I’m betting the second-half under at 20.5.
Verdict: Second-half under 20.5 (-110).
New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills (-14)
The forecasted high for Buffalo on Sunday is just 17 degrees. There’s no precipitation or high wind anticipated, but those conditions are vastly different from the ones in the domes where the Bills have played the past two weeks. Is the Bills defense good enough to lay two full touchdowns against the Patriots offense, which is improving week to week with Drake Maye? I don’t think so.
The Patriots have ranked fourth in offensive success rate, at 50.3 percent, since Maye returned from his concussion in Week 10. The only teams with a higher success rate are Green Bay, Detroit, and Buffalo. The Patriots have been just 19th in EPA per drive in that span, but better days are ahead for the New England offense, given those impressive underlying success rate numbers.
New England’s offense ranked 28th in success rate in the first nine weeks of the season, at 40.4 percent, and 29th in EPA per drive. Maye himself has improved, and the Patriots have shown a real propensity for scoring late touchdowns in the fourth quarter if needed in garbage time.
We’re in an excellent sell-high spot with Buffalo given that Josh Allen has MVP all but wrapped up and the Bills just beat the Super Bowl favorite on the road last week. There will always be one ugly bet in this column, and the Patriots +14 is it this week.
Verdict: Bet Patriots +14 (-110).
Jacksonville Jaguars (-1.5) at Las Vegas Raiders
There are nine teams this year with a record of 4-10 or worse, and this is the only matchup between two of those teams in Week 16. Welcome to the tank-a-thon classic.
Even without Maxx Crosby, who is out for the season, the Raiders defense held up pretty well on Monday night against a limited quarterback, Kirk Cousins. Now they get to face another limited quarterback on Sunday when Mac Jones comes to town.
Antonio Pierce said that Aidan O’Connell will likely play in Week 16, in which case I’m not so sure that the Raiders should be a toss-up at home. The Raiders franchise may be incentivized to lose, but O’Connell should be able to have more success in pushing the ball down the field against the terrible Jacksonville pass defense.
It’s Raiders or nothing for me on this one, but there are better games to bet on.
Verdict: Lean Raiders +1.5.
San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins (-1.5)
Welcome to the 2024 Disappointment Bowl. Aside from the Bengals, who’ve wasted an incredible Joe Burrow season with terrible defense and special teams, these are the two most disappointing teams of this season. Both will almost certainly miss the playoffs. Tua Tagovailoa sat out a key portion of the season, and the 49ers have been ravaged by injuries. Even when somewhat healthy, neither of these offenses are as efficient or explosive as they’ve been in the past.
The Dolphins averaged just 3.6 yards per play last week. The 49ers are 12th in explosiveness this year, while the Dolphins are 22nd. Last season, these two teams were first and second.
Both Mike McDaniel and Kyle Shanahan are experts at exploiting the middle of the field. Defensively, the 49ers are still better at covering the middle of the field than the Dolphins. San Francisco has extra rest. If either offense is going to figure something out this week, it’s probably the 49ers.
Verdict: Lean 49ers +1.5.
Sunday Night Matchups
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4) at Dallas Cowboys
I definitely won’t be waiting all day for Sunday night to watch this game, but the Buccaneers offense is undeniably entertaining. Baker Mayfield and Mike Evans had a great performance against the Chargers defense, and now they are up against a Dallas team that, surprisingly, has won three of its past four games with Cooper Rush at quarterback.
The key matchup in this game will be the Tampa Bay offense against the Dallas pass rush. The Buccaneers are skilled at quickly getting the ball out of Mayfield’s hands, which is crucial given his tendency to make mistakes when under pressure. With Cousins benched, Mayfield is now the front-runner to finish the season with the most turnover-worthy plays, and the Dallas defense excels at causing chaos.
Although Rush has managed well against the blitz this season, his stats from a clean pocket—zero big-time throws, six turnover-worthy plays, 6.1 yards per attempt—suggest that his performance may not be as reliable as his stats against the blitz might imply. Stats from a clean pocket are often more indicative of future performance than stats when under pressure.
Verdict: Pass.
Monday Night Football
New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers (-13)
The Saints run defense is among the worst in the NFL, ranking 30th in DVOA, 31st in PFF, and 22nd in tackling. The only two run defenses that are worse by DVOA are the Panthers and Bears. Green Bay’s offense has been first in the league in success rate since Week 9, with a lot of that success driven by the early-down rushing efforts of Josh Jacobs. The Packers established dominance over the Seahawks early on Sunday night by running effectively, and they should be able to replicate that success in this game. The market has noticed the significant matchup advantage for the Packers; they’ve been pushed up from 13-point favorites through the key number of 14 and to 14.5 as of Wednesday morning.
Saints quarterback Spencer Rattler was able to score when playing from behind on Sunday at home against the Commanders, so laying the two-touchdown spread is a bit risky. Once he’s playing from behind, I do expect turnovers to play a role in giving the Packers a short field or two.
Green Bay’s team total is still below 28 points in most books, and betting on the Packers to score is the only way I’d approach this Monday night game.
Verdict: Bet Packers team total over 27.5 (-115 at DraftKings).
Bets from this article made for Week 16:
Chargers/Broncos under 42.5 (-115)
Bengals -7.5 (-110)
Patriots +14 (-105)
Eagles second half -1.5 (+100)
Lions first half -3.5 (+100)
Vikings-Seahawks second half under 20.5 (-110)
Packers team total over 27.5 (-115)
